The Homer/Sunshine Report: Why We're Going to Win
I think we're getting blown out, but if you're looking for a few rays of hope on gameday morning:
1) San Francisco's offensive production has declined through each of the first 3 weeks. 377 in Week 1, 349 yards in Week 2, 280 yards in Week 3. 30 points in Week 1, 27 points in Week 2, 13 points in Week 3. No turnovers in Week 1, 1 turnover in Week 2, 3 turnovers in Week 3.
2) The 49ers are really bad in the red zone, and they don't get there that often. That's why David Akers attempted a record 52 FGs last year. Speaking of Akers.....
3) David Akers has always been terrible at the Meadowlands. Dreadful. He's a career 82.3% kicker, but he's only 16/27 at the Meadowlands (59.3%). One of my good friends is an Eagles fan who would always complain about how badly he sucked against the Giants. I looked it up one day and he turned out to be right.
4) The 49ers defense hasn't been great thus far. They're the opposite of a "bend but don't break" defense. They have allowed a touchdown on every red zone possession this year, but have only allowed 5 red zone incursions. They also have problems getting off the field on 3rd down, allowing opponents to convert on 45% (23rd) of their chances (we currently have the 5th best 3rd down offense in the league, believe it or not).
5) Home game. We played great in our first home game and were 6-2 at home last year. We've been a good home team since 2010 and it's hard to win on the road in the NFL.
6) AccuScore has this game SanFran 53%, New York 47%. The computer thinks this game is a toss up. We've got two over cards up against an under pair, before the flop. That's not a bad spot to be in.
There you go. Feel any better now?
9ers by 20.