You're also neglecting the fact that Keller is in essence a target in the passing game whereas Denver never had a TE involved in the passing game during that time.
How about we compare Thomas's JUNIOR season with Hill's JUNIOR season since Hill did not play as a senior. That might be a little fairer:
Thomas: 39 receptions, 629 yards (16.1 YPR); 3 TDs
Hill: 28 receptions, 820 yds (29.3 YPR); 5 TDs
Why are these numbers a lot closer than you are letting on?
Unless you're trying to tell me that Stephen Hill is a full year of COLLEGE DEVELOPMENT behind Thomas which would make him about 4 years out from actually putting up Thomas' numbers.... that makes this even more alarming!
Either way, they are NOT the same type of player. At all. Their stats indicate this.
My point is that you cannot hold it against Hill for leaving a year early. I compared their junior year college numbers and rookie year pro numbers and proved the numbers are virtually identical. I don't see what is so "alarming" about that.
Both guys did not immediately adjust to the game. You're willing to write one of them off even though he put up identical rookie numbers to the other. I have shown you the stats, but somehow your "historical data" (which isn't even data at all btw) proves that Thomas is one of those anomalies to your "9 out of 10 bust" theory.
I think what southside is saying is that D Thomas was drafted after his senior year based on what he accomplished and how he played. Hill was drafted based on his physical gifts and potential. Has nothing to do with them developing. That's what I got out of it anyways.
I'm not wrong. You just don't like my opinion that I don't think Hill is going to succeed. If he does, I'll be there happily rooting him on. However, he doesn't look capable of anything that resembles 2nd round WR. It's the position with the highest bust rate, period.
Here are the facts, not the projections or the fantasy comparisons. Right now:
He can't catch.
He can't run routes at an NFL level.
He can't chose when to run the correct route.
I have every right to be disappointed with him. His play has sucked. I was excited after game 1. Looked like it was a great pick. Now in Week 13 it's pretty apparent that we reached on a player trying to hit the lottery. And if you are attempting to say we can develop this player, are you REALLY CONFIDENT in the coaching staff to do this? I am not. If this kid needs additional development then I'm quite positive he isn't going to get it with the New York Jets.
Thomas actually showed that he could make 8+ receptions, 100 yards, and a TD per game.
Stephen Hill never showed that. Ever.
If anything (and based on Tanny's admitted reasoning/defense of drafting him) Hill is riding the coattails of Johnson and Thomas without ever showing he could make those plays. He cut his own development short and you can see it's seriously affected him mental game. He's lost. Swimming. Dropping wide open passes. And seriously suffering in confidence.
Can he get better? Absolutely. Never once did I say he couldn't.
Do I think he'll get better? I'm not that optimistic based on what I've seen and I'm certainly not in the camp of excitement because he caught 5 passes for 40 yards. At some point you have to look at what you see on the field and separate the emotion. I think he's an awesome kid, smart and a high character guy with a great work ethic. He has that going for him. I guess there's a reason to believe he'll get better.
But let's get realistic here, his play this year has been absolutely dreadful!
The problem with Hill is that he is VERY raw so the game is probably going extremely fast for him. What's my route, what's the hot read, where am i supposed to be.... With all that going through his head, the drops are a natural consquence.
If was on a team with real WR's he would be seeing 1/4 the snaps and working his way into the lineup. THe problem is that the Jets picked a kid that was raw and expected him to step in right away.
Like i have said earilier, he has the speed/size/desire of a great WR. I have seen too many players go through a sharp learning curve and eventually come out as pro bowlers. I'm not going to give up on him just yet.
Cute jab at the obvious fact that I don't have the Jets offensive play book.
I wonder what Hills numbers will look like if we have a QB that can actually keep his eyes open down the field and hit a second option.
The drops are an issue, and a pretty big one, but his route running is not. Getting off the line at his size isnt easy and is something that will come with time.
Before I reply to the rest, let me just state that we are each entitled to our own opinion and I respect yours. Only time will tell with Hill. Here is where I'm struggling to make a connection with what you're saying, however...
This isn't some, "WOOHOO! He didn't drop one today!" type of comment.
What we saw as fans was Hill making four of his five catches away from his body and using his wide catching radius. The body catching was a complaint by many fans and yesterday was an example of growth in that department.
If you're referring to Thomas's ability to do that now, I have no idea how you can hold that against Hill. At least give the guy an opportunity to see his third year before you can use that argument against him.
And my whole point between Thomas and Hill is that they put up similar numbers their junior years and even more similar numbers their rookie years. It all goes back to where they were drafted. If Thomas left a year early, he'd have been a 2nd round pick; if Hill stays another year, he's likely a first rounder a la Thomas.
I also don't have any clue with what your expectations were for Hill this year. That's probably the biggest thing you need to sort through. I am not accusing you of this, but I saw some wildly unrealistic predictions for Hill this year. FWIW, this is what I predicted for Hill (assuming 16 games):
35 catches, 550 yards, 4 TD
He has missed a few games this year, but his per game totals are about on par with what I predicted. The only thing that hasn't lived up to the billing has been the YPR.
I think the biggest difference between you and me is that I'm far more confident the kid will improve. He's one of the youngest guys in the whole league (still 21), he has amazing physical gifts, and most importantly, he's a good kid with a strong work ethic. When you have the combination of those three things, I tend to be more optimistic than pessimistic.
However I agree. He's swimming. But that doesn't excuse dropping a 5 yard pass that hits you directly in the hands when you are wide open. That's not mental. That's just bad hands. You can look at the way he tries to catch the ball sometimes and his technique is just flat out wrong. These things can be coached. I agree. But having bad hands isn't an easy fix. There are players that dropped passes and turned it around. Jerry Rice is the most glaring example. But this kid has never shown he can catch the ball in college.
Lets be honest here guys:
In his entire 3 year career at GT he has 49 catches for 1,248 yards.
That to me screams that a player couldn't get open on a consistent basis unless he was running a fly pattern. High yards per catch, low amount of receptions. His stats indicate he's a one dimensional player. His current play show that because he has only 49 receptions in his entire college career it would have been hard to see that he has horrible hands... most likely because he only catches one type of pass, the deep ball. That's my opinion and analysis and it could be totally wrong. But I at least have a basis for my opinion other than what OTHER PLAYERS have done.
This is the last thing I'm going to say about it. Quote me all you want. Keep stating I'm a moron. That's fine. I've said all I need to say in this thread. No need to repeat it a thousand times.
2011:167 pass attempts
2010:168 pass attempts
2009:168 pass attempts
Only Army, Navy, and Air Force had less pass attempts (in the FBS) in those years. Good luck trying to get catches when they never throw the ball...
Also, D. Thomas was hogging up 46 passes for Hill's freshman year.