A couple things here.
Originally Posted by Beerfish
I don't want to draft any of these QBs before the 3rd round because i don't think any of them are worth being on the Jets Roster before the 3rd round.
When you don't have a QB, no position is more important that looking to fill that position. If you have a QB with the type of measureables a Tyler Bray or Zac Dysert has, taking a chance on this position with a 3rd round pick is not that bad of a risk.
One of the reasons why the Patriots continually get a high draft grade is because they don't take certain positions with 1st round picks just because of the player's talent. If certain positions aren't viable in the 1st round, it maybe best to trade the pick for later value and or future value. You don't draft Keyshawn Johnson with the 1st overall pick. You don't trade 2 1st round picks for Keyshawn Johnson. You give up that type of compensation for a difference maker at QB, at LT or at C and on the defensive side of the ball at NT and on the outside at DE or at OLBer depending on the scheme.
In this draft, we have the opportunity to fill the DT, The LT or the OLBing position with our 1st round pick. We have the opportunity to fill The C and or the DT position with our 2nd round pick. Of those 4 positions only 2 are positions of need and premium, both being on the defensive side of the ball. We either take a DT, an OLber or an OC who can play OG and as luck would have it, we have a gaping hole at those positions.
So in your scenario we just accept mediocrity at the QB position because there is not a guaranteed franchise guy. I think that is a recipe for mediocrity. We are not talking about taking a QB #1 with Sam Bradford money where if you miss you cripple the team. Those days are gone. Selecting a QB in the 2nd neither cripples us nor precludes a QB in 2014. But accepting a Sanchez/Garrard/McElroy trifecta is criminally negligent in my view. They ALL suck for the most part.
Originally Posted by Beerfish
I agree with the concept of what you're selling here. An algorithm if you will to the daft... however it lacks a certain intuitiveness that good GM's have about when to hold and when to fold.
Originally Posted by Tinstar
...that and I really hate using NE as any kind of marker for drafting. Bill the barbarian often gets good draft grades because he makes value picks and does a lot wheeling and dealing.. however, statistically speaking - he's failed, especially on the defensive side a significant number of times...
ask your self, for a team that has routinely lead the league in picks, how do you field one of the worst defenses consistently over the last 5 years. I've heard "hot garbage" used too many times. THey've benefited from teams having to play catch up A LOT.
...that and they benefit from rarely having to be in crisis management-mode like the Jets are in presently. You can play yahtzee at radio city with your draft picks when you're routinely winning divisions and conferences.
The problem with the Patriots is the HC is making the decisions on who to draft instead of the GM. When this happens, the HC always thinks he can coach-up the player to make him into something that just doesn't exist.
The Patriots always make the right decisions on when to pick but more often the wrong decision on who to pick.