I honestly can't see Barry winning a second term. I generally have a good feel for elections. I never thought the GOP had a shot in 2008. If I base my vote on the simple question of whether I would like four more years of "how things have been these past 3.5 years" there's no chance. At least the Bush era was fairly prosperous until the last year.
The other question to ask what has really changed since the 2010 midterms. We have a sluggish recovery happening. Normally we get a big bump in growth after recessions. Now we are still growing at below average rates. Thats scary for anyone that understands the economy. We have a president that has promised massive tax hikes in 2012. Who wants to pay more taxes? Hint... not me. We have a Presidential budget that raises all of those taxes yet still averages 700 billion deficits over the next ten years. Its crazy. His budget couldn't get one democrat vote. Not one.