Jets Insider.com Forums - View Single Post - That Which Is Unsustainable Will Go Away: Pensions -Tyler Durden

chiefst2000 · 05-16-2012, 04:47 PM

[QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;4470369]If you had told me we would have the lowest energy prices in the world because of new natural gas finds and drilling techniques 10 years ago I would have told you no way. Oil from sand in Canada or from shale in the US? If back in 1975 you told me we would be importing deflation from China while having full employment for 10 plus years I would have said crazy talk.

Apple is going to be the biggest company in the world, lunacy.

In 10 years we may not need a drop of the oil we store in the strategic oil reserve for all any of us know. Todays unsustainable budget may look reasonable in 10 years if our economy goes through a massive growth cycle.
Facebook is going public tomorrow. People are inventing, doing research, changing the world while we speak.

Worry about the land mines in front of you not the ones that are planted on a road you might not travel.[/QUOTE]

Rainbows and lollipops wont erase 17 trillion in debt. In your 10 years from now scenario we will be close to 40 trillion in debt. I hope I'm wrong. I hope the Romney presidency brings our country back on the path to prosperity but realistically I think it may be too late. The structural deficit is too big for anyone to deal with now. I think that if the country smartens up and elects pols that stress fiscal responsibility we may avoid Armageddon but we can't avoid a major devaluation of the currency.

The question is not if it will happen. It will because it must. The question is how do we protect ourselves from the pain and how to profit from the devaluation. I'm not sure of the answer. The finance 101 answer is that in a dime of high inflation hard assets like real estate fare the best. There is always a caveat. If the economy tanks because of the deflation hard assets could go down in value as well. Maybe gold is the answer? Gold has run up quite a bit though. Hard to take a position after the massive run gold has made. Maybe Treasutr Inflation Protected Securities are the way to go. Can hurt to own some. Maybe we convert free cash to a foreign currency like the Swiss Franc. That might work best for smaller investors but the regulations around holding foreign accounts make them a real hassle during tax season.

I'm not really sure what the best path is.

05-16-2012, 04:47 PM	#21
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,820	[QUOTE=Winstonbiggs;4470369]If you had told me we would have the lowest energy prices in the world because of new natural gas finds and drilling techniques 10 years ago I would have told you no way. Oil from sand in Canada or from shale in the US? If back in 1975 you told me we would be importing deflation from China while having full employment for 10 plus years I would have said crazy talk. Apple is going to be the biggest company in the world, lunacy. In 10 years we may not need a drop of the oil we store in the strategic oil reserve for all any of us know. Todays unsustainable budget may look reasonable in 10 years if our economy goes through a massive growth cycle. Facebook is going public tomorrow. People are inventing, doing research, changing the world while we speak. Worry about the land mines in front of you not the ones that are planted on a road you might not travel.[/QUOTE] Rainbows and lollipops wont erase 17 trillion in debt. In your 10 years from now scenario we will be close to 40 trillion in debt. I hope I'm wrong. I hope the Romney presidency brings our country back on the path to prosperity but realistically I think it may be too late. The structural deficit is too big for anyone to deal with now. I think that if the country smartens up and elects pols that stress fiscal responsibility we may avoid Armageddon but we can't avoid a major devaluation of the currency. The question is not if it will happen. It will because it must. The question is how do we protect ourselves from the pain and how to profit from the devaluation. I'm not sure of the answer. The finance 101 answer is that in a dime of high inflation hard assets like real estate fare the best. There is always a caveat. If the economy tanks because of the deflation hard assets could go down in value as well. Maybe gold is the answer? Gold has run up quite a bit though. Hard to take a position after the massive run gold has made. Maybe Treasutr Inflation Protected Securities are the way to go. Can hurt to own some. Maybe we convert free cash to a foreign currency like the Swiss Franc. That might work best for smaller investors but the regulations around holding foreign accounts make them a real hassle during tax season. I'm not really sure what the best path is.