Originally Posted by patman
How did you break it down? When they ran on 3rd & 3, did they run it out of 2 TE set or was it a draw play out of a passing formation? If the jets are throwing the ball that much on 3rd, the other teams know it and have their passing sub package on the field, which makes it when you do run the ball a lot more successful. If you reverse the percentages the opposing team will have their "bigs" out there and you will find passing to be the easier way to go.
While the jets passed a lot on 3rd, I would think a good % of them went to the running back who was in the backfield when he caught the ball, to me this is more along the lines of a long hand off like a toss.
Stats in football on are only good for a clue to investigate further.
crash, revischrist, and a few others did a good job explaining and I agree with a lot, but I figured I'd put my two cents in as well...
I don't have NFL Game Rewind, so I wasn't able to visually assess each play. What I can tell you, however, is that a significant amount of the passes, specifically the short passes, were utilized when there was a single back who would then motion out wide. If having an empty backfield is not tipping your hand that you're only going to pass, I don't know what is.
Only the elite passing offenses (like your Pats or the Saints for instance) can pass when everyone knows they're passing. A run-first team with a below-average passing game should not have the audacity to do that. To take it a step further, a contested, short pass in a tight window with a QB with below average accuracy is pretty moronic. The "reward" of a 3 yard gain is so much smaller than the risk. You might as well just run the damn ball if all you want is 3 yards.
If the Jets are going to utilize a play the defense would "expect," it should be a running play. There were three instances on 3rd & short where they brought in Ducasse as an extra lineman. That's an indication that you're probably going to run. They ran all three times and converted all three times.
I think my "stats" go a little deeper than the average stat you find out there. The facts are clear. The Jets threw at or near the LOS on 3rd and short at an alarming rate, often times with out any semblance of a threat to run. When they challenged deep, they had amazing success. That tells me that defenses were keying in on anything in a 5 yard box. And on the rare instance they ran, they had great success.
As far as who the Jets threw to on 3rd and short... They threw the ball 34 times, 27 of them were short passes. Of the 27 short passes, only 2 of them went to a back. Both of them were to John Conner. 1 was incomplete and the other was complete but went for no gain. All the other passes went to WRs or TEs. I don't think your "RBs would just leak out to the flats" theory is correct.
Originally Posted by patman
How much improvement are you expecting thisyear running a new offense for the first time? I understand that you want to change it up and thought the
offensie got stale, but your not bringing in Don Coreyl or Bill Walsh. This is not replacing Kotite with Parcells.
Like TheMikeIsHot stated, I think just a cut down of turnovers would be a big first step.
I don't think the volume stats will be much different, but I think they'll at least be a little smarter in these 3rd/4th and short scenarios I outlined. Even if they still passed 55% of the time, it would at least make the defense think some instead of merely sitting on short passing routes.
When Sparano was in Miami, he often used Lousaka Polite in short yardage situations. Polite was a 6' 245 lbs. bruiser that would incredibly and reliably convert on those situations. Teams knew it was coming, but they couldn't stop it. If they're going to be obvious in what they're going to call in these situations, they might as well call a run because the Jets are better at that than passing. For what it's worth, Polite was 41/43 in converting for first downs in 3rd/4th and short. And I know a certain 6'3'' 249 lbs. Bible thumper that would fit in perfectly in these scenarios...