Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetdawgg
Raz is a rw slanted information provider. You just cannot stand to face factual data
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Ras is not slanted. They were the most accurate polling outfit in the 2008 and 2010 election cycles. Their partisan identification models were gathered through contacts with over 300,000 voters and is backed up by exit polling data. There are hard numbers to these things. In 2008 the actual voting electorate was D+7. In 2004 it was R+2.
If you think 2012 is as favorable of a year for democrats as the historic 2008 election you are fooling yourself. Most of those polling outfits including Pew are using a D+7 or greater sample to make their estimates. When I look at those polls the only numbers that interest me are those of the independents. Looking at the independents number peels away all of the noise and pollster bias. Romney continues to lead among independents though the margin has come down a few points since the conventions. Romney also leads in voter enthusiasm though again the margins shifted with some gains there by Obama since Clinton spoke. Right now there is a 12point pro Romney enthusiasm edge.
I admit seeing polling so close or slightly favoring Obama makes me nervous but these things ebb and flow in election cycles. In the end a lot of what that article from the Vegas bookmaker resonates. The economy is tough, Obama policies havent helped. We have an administration that has leaked national security secrets for political gain, lied about a terrorist attack in Libya, supported the ouster of a friendly regime in Egypt and fostered the empowerment of a terrorist group there, billions spent on phony green energy companies almost all of which are bankrupt within 3 years, alienated our allies in Israel, inexplicably shipped weapons to Mexican drug cartels, allowed our ambassador to be unprotected in a terror hot spot resulting in his rape and murder. The list goes on and on. No person that voted for McCain will vote for Obama. Plenty of Obama voters will stay home or switch their votes. This election will be close and it's still anyones game.