Originally Posted by sec.101row23
The line being 11.5 does not necessarily mean that Vegas thinks the Pats will win by that margin, but rather set the number to try to draw equal betting for both teams.
True, but the line is also indicative of where the "sharp" money will be coming from. So if Vegas thinks that the "sharps" will be all over the Pats they have to make the line high to lure in the "suckers" (to take the Jets) to even out the money. Generally, you want to be on the side of the "Sharps" and in this case I think OP is right and the "sharp" money will be on the Pats.