I just checked out the internals of that Time poll that has Obama up by 5. In that poll Romney leads among Independents 53 to 38. Thats a 15 point margin with independents in Ohio. Since Ohio is one of the most evenly distributed electorates as far as partisan preference goes I don't think the numbers bode well for Obama there.
Intrade odds now at 56 to 44 for Obama up from 78-27 a couple of weeks ago.