I read Silvers blog every day but more for the opposition perspective. He is a dedicated partisan democrat. The only odds worth their salt are the ones where people put their money on the line. Intrade is 60-40 odds for Obama right now. Thats the number you should look at for comfort.
For my side I say the odds went from 78-22 to 60-40 in a few weeks. Where does momentum move in the last two weeks? We shall see.