Originally Posted by sackdance
Whoa! Sandy no longer transcends mere politics? What happened, BR?
Warfish: Obama is the most overexposed politician in this country's history - and probably the planet's; he has proven himself to be more pedestrian than persuasive too many times to count. For voters who've seen his act before Sandy isn't anything more than another photo op - he'll get more mileage out of the Jay-Z concert in Columbus.
But I have to say what really stands out in your breakdown was this: I thought the election would be close, with an Obama victory.
When did go from Romney has not even the slightest shot in hell to "close"? I certainly missed you conceding a single thing to Romney.
Prior to the Romney "surge" (which was inevitable, imo) there existed a lazy, conventional narrative saying that the key to this contest would be to win the "independent vote".
Once Romney won the independent vote, and he is killing the independent vote - by double digits, the media has been quick to focus on other topics; this parallels the shift of yesterday's "battleground" states are today's "lean Romney".
This is a very simple voting bloc, one that is sick of high unemployment and a crap economy - not even President Houdini could pull re-election out of this bind.
Don't overthink it. This election was sealed a long time ago - and voters chose Romney specifically in droves this past month. Obama and Christie playing Maverick and Goose on washed out barrier islands is already yesterday's news. And don't think Christie was ever not 100% aware of political implications; he big-timed the Atlantic City mayor into chump status for max effect.
Agree to disagree, and we'll see.
You've been declaring it "in the bag" for Romney for a long while now, something simply not reflected in any polling or any other indicator, even now. While I have my doubts about the accuracy of polling, the all but universal nature of Romney as underdog makes it certainly less "sure thing landslide" than you seem to assume it will be.
But we'll see. 5 days, and we'll know. If Romney wins by 5%, you'll be right. If Romney loses, the polling will be right.