Originally Posted by doggin94it
General philosophy: There's no franchise QB coming in this year's draft or FA class, so use this offseason to clear the decks for 2014 and put yourself in a situation that, if a QB option becomes available next offseason, you can maximize their chances of success. (Translation: Yes, punt 2013). Also, given the personnel, the D needs to move to a 4-3 as its base formation.
With that in mind:
Cuts/Restructures:
JasonSmith(this is a player who can be kept at a backup salary, but not at 12M, obviously. Savings: 12M)
Calvin Pace (Savings: 8.56M)
Bart Scott (Savings: 7.15M. He's made noises about taking a pay cut to stay, and that would be worth exploring - drop him to 2M and you save 5M in space)
Sione Pouha (Savings: 3.83M. This is a tough one - I like the player, and he's still effective when healthy. But he's not likely to figure in your 2014 plans and Ellis and Harrison need playing time to develop)
Eric Smith (Savings: 3M)
Mark Sanchez (Savings: -4.3M. Yes, cutting Sanchez actually costs more than keeping him. But cutting him now saves 4.8M in 2014 cap room - and if we're punting 2013 to make a run in 2014-16, I'd rather have the cap room then, and it eliminates the circus keeping him would cause)
Tim Tebow (cut or trade. Savings: 1.53M)
Total Savings: 33.87M that would put the team at roughly 108.5M against a projected cap of around 126.5M (I'm assuming, per reports, the cap will stay relatively flat next year), plus roughly 5M in unused cap space from this year that would be rolled over to next year, for a total available cap room of ~23M
That would leave the pre-FA, pre-draft roster looking like this:
QB: McElroy
RB: Powell, McKnight
OT: Ferguson
OG: Ducasse, Schlauderoff,
C: Mangold
WR: Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Gates, Adams
TE: H. Smith, K. Reuland, J. Baker
DE: Wilkerson, Coples
DT: Ellis, Harrison
LB: Harris, Davis, McIntyre, Sapp, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Bush
K:
P: Malone
An ugly situation, obviously. Now for FA and the draft:
Re-sign
LaRon Landry (4 years, 29M, 10M signing bonus, base salaries 3M, 5M, 5M, 6M) Cap cost: 5.5M
Yeremiah Bell (1 year, 1.4M - same contract as this year) Cap cost: 1.4M
Braylon Edwards (2 years, 2.5M) Cap cost: 1.25M
Mike DeVito (3 years, 9M, 3M signing bonus) Cap cost: 2.1M
Austin Howard (1 year, 1.26M) Cap cost: 1.26M
Nick Folk (1 year, 750K) Cap Cost: 750K
Total cap cost of re-signings: 12.25M
That leaves about 11M in cap space for additional signings/draftees
FA:
Matt Moore (3 year, 7M, 2M signing bonus, vet minimum salary year one) Cap Cost: ~1.4M
Delanie Walker (4 years, 13M, 4M signing bonus, 1.5M base year one) Cap cost: 2.5M
Jason Campbell (2 year, 4M) Cap cost: 2M
Peyton Hillis (2 years, 5M) Cap cost: 2M
That leaves 4-5M in cap space to sign draftees
Draft:
1 (9): Chance Warmack (OG) - Solidifies the interior line by drafting an immediate starter and potential pro-bowler on the right side. Put Ducasse or Schlauderoff between Mangold and Ferguson, and Warmack next to Howard, and the Jets have a more than passable OL to put a rookie QB behind in 2014 (with the two weak spots to be fixed in future years)
2 (39): Alex Okafor (DE/OLB) (can flex between 4-3DE and 3-4OLB while providing pass rush skills)
3 (73): Marcus Latimore (RB) (if available, the perfect pick for a team playing for 2014. If already selected, best available OT or RB)
4-7: High floor players at OT, 4-3LB, S, OG
2013 Roster (Starters in bold):
QB: Moore/Campbell, McElroy
RB: Hillis, Powell, McKnight, Lattimore (IR)
OL: Ferguson, Ducasse/Schlauderoff, Mangold, Warmack, Howard
WR: Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Edwards, Gates, Adams
TE: Walker, Baker, Reuland/Smith
DL: Wilkerson, Coples, Ellis, Okafor, Harrison, DeVito, Sapp
LB: McIntyre, Harris, Davis, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Landry, Bell, Bush
K: Folk
P: Malone
That's 46 players, with the final 7 to be filled in by a combination of draft picks (rounds 4-7) and interchangeable UDFAs/lower tier FA signings. It's a thin roster, but very good on D (though McIntyre may be a disaster as a 4-3 LB) and with a passable O. For 2014, the Jets would need to replace or extend Howard and Ducasse, and replace Bell at safety (and potentially Revis at CB), and land a QB and RB, and upgrade at LB, but would be in excellent cap position to do so, while also extending Wilkerson, Revis, Kerley and other key players. If Sanchez, Scott, Tebow and Pouha are cut this offseason, the Jets would have only 68.8M in cap costs heading into 2014, plus the hits from the 2013 FA signings/draftees. At the numbers above, that's 7.5M for Landry, 1.25 for Braylon, 3.5 for Walker, 3.5 for DeVito, 3M for Hillis, and ~2M for whichever of Campbell/Moore won the starting job in 2013 (the loser gets cut in the 2014 offseason). That takes the Jets' 2014 cap commitments to ~89.5M, leaving them with 30+M to upgrade the roster for their next window of competitiveness. That's a team with the foundation, given the right QB and other signings, to win a championship.
Bottom line, the goal in this offseason should be clearing the decks for a run in 2014 and beyond, not a patch job to try and make this team crawl into the 2013 playoffs.
|