Offseason Plan: Punt 2013

[doggin94it]

General philosophy: There's no franchise QB coming in this year's draft or FA class, so use this offseason to clear the decks for 2014 and put yourself in a situation that, if a QB option becomes available next offseason, you can maximize their chances of success. (Translation: Yes, punt 2013). Also, given the personnel, the D needs to move to a 4-3 as its base formation.

With that in mind:

Cuts/Restructures:
JasonSmith(this is a player who can be kept at a backup salary, but not at 12M, obviously. Savings: 12M)
Calvin Pace (Savings: 8.56M)
Bart Scott (Savings: 7.15M. He's made noises about taking a pay cut to stay, and that would be worth exploring - drop him to 2M and you save 5M in space)
Sione Pouha (Savings: 3.83M. This is a tough one - I like the player, and he's still effective when healthy. But he's not likely to figure in your 2014 plans and Ellis and Harrison need playing time to develop)
Eric Smith (Savings: 3M)
Mark Sanchez (Savings: -4.3M. Yes, cutting Sanchez actually costs more than keeping him. But cutting him now saves 4.8M in 2014 cap room - and if we're punting 2013 to make a run in 2014-16, I'd rather have the cap room then, and it eliminates the circus keeping him would cause)
Tim Tebow (cut or trade. Savings: 1.53M)

Total Savings: 33.87M that would put the team at roughly 108.5M against a projected cap of around 126.5M (I'm assuming, per reports, the cap will stay relatively flat next year), plus roughly 5M in unused cap space from this year that would be rolled over to next year, for a total available cap room of ~23M

That would leave the pre-FA, pre-draft roster looking like this:

QB: McElroy
RB: Powell, McKnight
OT: Ferguson
OG: Ducasse, Schlauderoff,
C: Mangold
WR: Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Gates, Adams
TE: H. Smith, K. Reuland, J. Baker

DE: Wilkerson, Coples
DT: Ellis, Harrison
LB: Harris, Davis, McIntyre, Sapp, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Bush

K:
P: Malone

An ugly situation, obviously. Now for FA and the draft:

Re-sign

LaRon Landry (4 years, 29M, 10M signing bonus, base salaries 3M, 5M, 5M, 6M) Cap cost: 5.5M
Yeremiah Bell (1 year, 1.4M - same contract as this year) Cap cost: 1.4M
Braylon Edwards (2 years, 2.5M) Cap cost: 1.25M
Mike DeVito (3 years, 9M, 3M signing bonus) Cap cost: 2.1M
Austin Howard (1 year, 1.26M) Cap cost: 1.26M
Nick Folk (1 year, 750K) Cap Cost: 750K

Total cap cost of re-signings: 12.25M

That leaves about 11M in cap space for additional signings/draftees

FA:

Matt Moore (3 year, 7M, 2M signing bonus, vet minimum salary year one) Cap Cost: ~1.4M
Delanie Walker (4 years, 13M, 4M signing bonus, 1.5M base year one) Cap cost: 2.5M
Jason Campbell (2 year, 4M) Cap cost: 2M
Peyton Hillis (2 years, 5M) Cap cost: 2M

That leaves 4-5M in cap space to sign draftees

Draft:

1 (9): Chance Warmack (OG) - Solidifies the interior line by drafting an immediate starter and potential pro-bowler on the right side. Put Ducasse or Schlauderoff between Mangold and Ferguson, and Warmack next to Howard, and the Jets have a more than passable OL to put a rookie QB behind in 2014 (with the two weak spots to be fixed in future years)
2 (39): Alex Okafor (DE/OLB) (can flex between 4-3DE and 3-4OLB while providing pass rush skills)
3 (73): Marcus Latimore (RB) (if available, the perfect pick for a team playing for 2014. If already selected, best available OT or RB)
4-7: High floor players at OT, 4-3LB, S, OG

2013 Roster (Starters in bold):

QB: Moore/Campbell, McElroy
RB: Hillis, Powell, McKnight, Lattimore (IR)
OL: Ferguson, Ducasse/Schlauderoff, Mangold, Warmack, Howard
WR: Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Edwards, Gates, Adams
TE: Walker, Baker, Reuland/Smith

DL: Wilkerson, Coples, Ellis, Okafor, Harrison, DeVito, Sapp
LB: McIntyre, Harris, Davis, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Landry, Bell, Bush

K: Folk
P: Malone

That's 46 players, with the final 7 to be filled in by a combination of draft picks (rounds 4-7) and interchangeable UDFAs/lower tier FA signings. It's a thin roster, but very good on D (though McIntyre may be a disaster as a 4-3 LB) and with a passable O. For 2014, the Jets would need to replace or extend Howard and Ducasse, and replace Bell at safety (and potentially Revis at CB), and land a QB and RB, and upgrade at LB, but would be in excellent cap position to do so, while also extending Wilkerson, Revis, Kerley and other key players. If Sanchez, Scott, Tebow and Pouha are cut this offseason, the Jets would have only 68.8M in cap costs heading into 2014, plus the hits from the 2013 FA signings/draftees. At the numbers above, that's 7.5M for Landry, 1.25 for Braylon, 3.5 for Walker, 3.5 for DeVito, 3M for Hillis, and ~2M for whichever of Campbell/Moore won the starting job in 2013 (the loser gets cut in the 2014 offseason). That takes the Jets' 2014 cap commitments to ~89.5M, leaving them with 30+M to upgrade the roster for their next window of competitiveness. That's a team with the foundation, given the right QB and other signings, to win a championship.

Bottom line, the goal in this offseason should be clearing the decks for a run in 2014 and beyond, not a patch job to try and make this team crawl into the 2013 playoffs.

[LockeJET]

I totally agree! Love the plan. Well thought out. And this is also why keeping Rex makes zero sense. 95% chance we don't win more then 6 games next year. Rex will then be fired. So why not just hire a new GM and let him choose his guy right away instead of delaying it for a year? We all know Rex can't surive another losing season. And we also know we will stink next year.

[DDNYjets]

Like it all except for Ducasse/Schlauderoff.

But as you say it is a punt. IMO we might be looking at a 2yr rebuild depending on personnel coming and going.

[cant wait]

Originally Posted by LockeJET

I totally agree! And this is also why keeping Rex makes zero sense. 95% chance we don't win more then 6 games next year. Rex will then be fired. So why not just hire a new GM and let him choose his guy right away instead of delaying it for a year? We all know Rex can't surive another losing season. And we also know we will stink next year.

getting rid of rex for some unknown coach makes zero sense. if 2013 is a rebuilding year, the team needs to focus on keeping together the pieces that are working and improving the places that are lacking. what great coach is going to want to come in and coach a rebuilding team? we need some continuity and the defense is still playing well despite a weak aging LB corps

[BRONX JET]

Okafor will be off the boards by pick 39. Just sayin

[jetswin]

wow, it will be empty at Metlife

[RMJK]

Originally Posted by doggin94it

General philosophy: There's no franchise QB coming in this year's draft or FA class, so use this offseason to clear the decks for 2014 and put yourself in a situation that, if a QB option becomes available next offseason, you can maximize their chances of success. (Translation: Yes, punt 2013). Also, given the personnel, the D needs to move to a 4-3 as its base formation.

With that in mind:

Cuts/Restructures:
JasonSmith(this is a player who can be kept at a backup salary, but not at 12M, obviously. Savings: 12M)
Calvin Pace (Savings: 8.56M)
Bart Scott (Savings: 7.15M. He's made noises about taking a pay cut to stay, and that would be worth exploring - drop him to 2M and you save 5M in space)
Sione Pouha (Savings: 3.83M. This is a tough one - I like the player, and he's still effective when healthy. But he's not likely to figure in your 2014 plans and Ellis and Harrison need playing time to develop)
Eric Smith (Savings: 3M)
Mark Sanchez (Savings: -4.3M. Yes, cutting Sanchez actually costs more than keeping him. But cutting him now saves 4.8M in 2014 cap room - and if we're punting 2013 to make a run in 2014-16, I'd rather have the cap room then, and it eliminates the circus keeping him would cause)
Tim Tebow (cut or trade. Savings: 1.53M)

Total Savings: 33.87M that would put the team at roughly 108.5M against a projected cap of around 126.5M (I'm assuming, per reports, the cap will stay relatively flat next year), plus roughly 5M in unused cap space from this year that would be rolled over to next year, for a total available cap room of ~23M

That would leave the pre-FA, pre-draft roster looking like this:

QB: McElroy
RB: Powell, McKnight
OT: Ferguson
OG: Ducasse, Schlauderoff,
C: Mangold
WR: Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Gates, Adams
TE: H. Smith, K. Reuland, J. Baker

DE: Wilkerson, Coples
DT: Ellis, Harrison
LB: Harris, Davis, McIntyre, Sapp, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Bush

K:
P: Malone

An ugly situation, obviously. Now for FA and the draft:

Re-sign

LaRon Landry (4 years, 29M, 10M signing bonus, base salaries 3M, 5M, 5M, 6M) Cap cost: 5.5M
Yeremiah Bell (1 year, 1.4M - same contract as this year) Cap cost: 1.4M
Braylon Edwards (2 years, 2.5M) Cap cost: 1.25M
Mike DeVito (3 years, 9M, 3M signing bonus) Cap cost: 2.1M
Austin Howard (1 year, 1.26M) Cap cost: 1.26M
Nick Folk (1 year, 750K) Cap Cost: 750K

Total cap cost of re-signings: 12.25M

That leaves about 11M in cap space for additional signings/draftees

FA:

Matt Moore (3 year, 7M, 2M signing bonus, vet minimum salary year one) Cap Cost: ~1.4M
Delanie Walker (4 years, 13M, 4M signing bonus, 1.5M base year one) Cap cost: 2.5M
Jason Campbell (2 year, 4M) Cap cost: 2M
Peyton Hillis (2 years, 5M) Cap cost: 2M

That leaves 4-5M in cap space to sign draftees

Draft:

1 (9): Chance Warmack (OG) - Solidifies the interior line by drafting an immediate starter and potential pro-bowler on the right side. Put Ducasse or Schlauderoff between Mangold and Ferguson, and Warmack next to Howard, and the Jets have a more than passable OL to put a rookie QB behind in 2014 (with the two weak spots to be fixed in future years)
2 (39): Alex Okafor (DE/OLB) (can flex between 4-3DE and 3-4OLB while providing pass rush skills)
3 (73): Marcus Latimore (RB) (if available, the perfect pick for a team playing for 2014. If already selected, best available OT or RB)
4-7: High floor players at OT, 4-3LB, S, OG

2013 Roster (Starters in bold):

QB: Moore/Campbell, McElroy
RB: Hillis, Powell, McKnight, Lattimore (IR)
OL: Ferguson, Ducasse/Schlauderoff, Mangold, Warmack, Howard
WR: Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Edwards, Gates, Adams
TE: Walker, Baker, Reuland/Smith

DL: Wilkerson, Coples, Ellis, Okafor, Harrison, DeVito, Sapp
LB: McIntyre, Harris, Davis, Bellore
CB: Revis, Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster, Berry
S: Landry, Bell, Bush

K: Folk
P: Malone

That's 46 players, with the final 7 to be filled in by a combination of draft picks (rounds 4-7) and interchangeable UDFAs/lower tier FA signings. It's a thin roster, but very good on D (though McIntyre may be a disaster as a 4-3 LB) and with a passable O. For 2014, the Jets would need to replace or extend Howard and Ducasse, and replace Bell at safety (and potentially Revis at CB), and land a QB and RB, and upgrade at LB, but would be in excellent cap position to do so, while also extending Wilkerson, Revis, Kerley and other key players. If Sanchez, Scott, Tebow and Pouha are cut this offseason, the Jets would have only 68.8M in cap costs heading into 2014, plus the hits from the 2013 FA signings/draftees. At the numbers above, that's 7.5M for Landry, 1.25 for Braylon, 3.5 for Walker, 3.5 for DeVito, 3M for Hillis, and ~2M for whichever of Campbell/Moore won the starting job in 2013 (the loser gets cut in the 2014 offseason). That takes the Jets' 2014 cap commitments to ~89.5M, leaving them with 30+M to upgrade the roster for their next window of competitiveness. That's a team with the foundation, given the right QB and other signings, to win a championship.

Bottom line, the goal in this offseason should be clearing the decks for a run in 2014 and beyond, not a patch job to try and make this team crawl into the 2013 playoffs.

Good post with lots of thought. I wonder what the pros come up with.

[doggin94it]

Originally Posted by LockeJET

I totally agree! Love the plan. Well thought out. And this is also why keeping Rex makes zero sense. 95% chance we don't win more then 6 games next year. Rex will then be fired. So why not just hire a new GM and let him choose his guy right away instead of delaying it for a year? We all know Rex can't surive another losing season. And we also know we will stink next year.

First, I'm not sure Rex can't survive a rebuilding year, assuming the perception going in is that it is a rebuilding year. Keeping him around allows the GM to evaluate him against realistic expectations, and determine whether he is the right guy for the job in the 2014-2016 window.

More, if the Jets fire Rex after the 2013 season, it allows them to begin a coaching search as one of the more attractive jobs on the market - good cap situation, good pieces in place, just need a QB to make the team take the next step, and drafting high enough to potentially land one.

Right now, the Jets are as unattractive a job as you could imagine: no QB, major holes all over the field, and in cap purgatory (not quite hell, but there won't be a stud FA riding to the rescue, either).

[revischrist]

So lets waste another year of Revis/Mangold/Dbrick/Wilkerson/Cromartie career on the off chance there is an elite QB in next years draft and on the off chance we finish with the worst record and land the kid?

No thanks. Teams can turn it around very quickly in the NFL. GIants go from crap to super bowl champions in the same year (twice).

[sg3]

Quick reading make some good points. Agree on the cuts.

I'd only sign Matt Moore as a FA QB. Jason Campbell is a 2 M unneeded luxury since I think Moore will be a terrific QB addition and McElroy and a mid round development guy will suffice

[doggin94it]

Originally Posted by BRONX JET

Okafor will be off the boards by pick 39. Just sayin

Possibly - but Kadar over at Mocking the Draft has him at 38 on his Big Board, so it's not like I'm suggesting DaMontre Moore there

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by revischrist

So lets waste another year of Revis/Mangold/Dbrick/Wilkerson/Cromartie career on the off chance there is an elite QB in next years draft and on the off chance we finish with the worst record and land the kid?

No thanks. Teams can turn it around very quickly in the NFL. GIants go from crap to super bowl champions in the same year (twice).

They have the two most important ingredients.

[cant wait]

Originally Posted by BRONX JET

Okafor will be off the boards by pick 39. Just sayin

that's what I thought but that's not the consensus among the draftniks. according to tony_tfy he's a mid 2nd prospect. I think his draft position will be determined by his combine numbers, keep in mind upshaw fell to #35 last year

[jetswin]

Originally Posted by revischrist

So lets waste another year of Revis/Mangold/Dbrick/Wilkerson/Cromartie career on the off chance there is an elite QB in next years draft and on the off chance we finish with the worst record and land the kid?

No thanks. Teams can turn it around very quickly in the NFL. GIants go from crap to super bowl champions in the same year (twice).

this...

I don't ever want to punt a season, we've lived through too many Louie Aguiar's already.

[doggin94it]

Originally Posted by revischrist

So lets waste another year of Revis/Mangold/Dbrick/Wilkerson/Cromartie career on the off chance there is an elite QB in next years draft and on the off chance we finish with the worst record and land the kid?

No thanks. Teams can turn it around very quickly in the NFL. GIants go from crap to super bowl champions in the same year (twice).

There's no RG3/Luck in this year's draft. The QB crop is weak as hell - and the second tier guys (the Russell Wilsons and Andy Daltons of the world) need to be put in good situations (i.e. solid RB and OL) to have a chance at success. You look at it as wasting a year of our best players' careers. I look at drafting a mediocre QB into a team not prepared to support him as wasting 4.

[doggin94it]

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

Like it all except for Ducasse/Schlauderoff.

But as you say it is a punt. IMO we might be looking at a 2yr rebuild depending on personnel coming and going.

Can't fix everything in one year, unfortunately.

[Dimitri_0515]

What a fukcing terrible roster we are going to have next year.

[revischrist]

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

They have the two most important ingredients.

Again, if you can GUARANTEE me that going 2-14 next year would get us a stud QB, i would sign on right now. As of now it looks like the best QB options next year will Manziel, Bridgewater and I don't feel like blowing up 2013 for either of those guys. From what i have seen in college football this year, there is no one coming out next year in the same league as Andrew Luck.

[doggin94it]

Originally Posted by jetswin

this...

I don't ever want to punt a season, we've lived through too many Louie Aguiar's already.

There's no real alternative, unfortunately. Given our cap situation, we're looking at Sanchez, Matt Moore/Jason Campbell, or a rookie draftee as our QB next season. If you think a team led by any of those options has any shot at making noise, you're fooling yourself (again, a rookie would likely be the best option - if we were solid enough around him to make it work, which we're not). 2013 won't be a championship season under any of those scenarios - so why screw the team for 2014 and beyond, when we could actually have a shot at a Super Bowl if we play our cards right, just to make 2013 mediocre instead of awful?

[cant wait]

Originally Posted by doggin94it

There's no RG3/Luck in this year's draft. The QB crop is weak as hell - and the second tier guys (the Russell Wilsons and Andy Daltons of the world) need to be put in good situations (i.e. solid RB and OL) to have a chance at success. You look at it as wasting a year of our best players' careers. I look at drafting a mediocre QB into a team not prepared to support him as wasting 4.

that's why you draft BPA. drafting a QB for the sake of drafting a QB will get you nowhere. just keep building up the talent on the team for now and eventually we'll find that QB