Who are the top 3 picks in this draft?

[augustiniak]

i think detroit will take okung. seeing stafford get knocked around last year probably inspired detroit to shore up the DL so they could take the OT. plus, seeing how well some recent OTs have panned out for cleveland and miami and how brick protected a rookie qb last year, i think okung will be the pick.

[Revi$_I$l@nd]

Originally Posted by augustiniak

i think detroit will take okung. seeing stafford get knocked around last year probably inspired detroit to shore up the DL so they could take the OT. plus, seeing how well some recent OTs have panned out for cleveland and miami and how brick protected a rookie qb last year, i think okung will be the pick.

Absolutely.

Detroit didn't just spend all that time FA bargain bin hunting to draft another DT and pay him huge money.

They're taking Okung and it's basically a lock at this point.

[SenorGato]

Originally Posted by augustiniak

i think detroit will take okung. seeing stafford get knocked around last year probably inspired detroit to shore up the DL so they could take the OT. plus, seeing how well some recent OTs have panned out for cleveland and miami and how brick protected a rookie qb last year, i think okung will be the pick.

+1

Okung did nothing but help his stock in the offseason, and Detroit desperately needs an infusion of talent on their OL. Their most talented blocker last year was probably Pettigrew....I exaggerate, but I doubt it's by much. The only thing that might change anything is that Schwartz might want Suh to be the Haynesworth of his new D...though Suh is a couple notches below Haynesworth on the raw talent scale.

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by NYJCAP2

You're dancing down a different line here than in your previous post about his shoulder. Do you not like his talent to be the franchise QB at #1 overall? Because I do a lot more than compared to what Russel ever was. Or do you think the injury is the only thing holding him back?

And then you have him going at 4 which makes me think you just like Suh's talent over Bradford, when clearly taking a franchise QB would help the Rams the most.

1 pro day performance, 3 weeks before the draft, doesn't erase the fact that he's missed months worth of football and the combine. He's very talented... maybe more talented than Sanchez. But he isn't as durable and that scares me.

Dont get me wrong, I like Sam Bradford, I just dont like taking him when Suh is still on the board. I think that's a Sam Bowie-like reach for need. I dont necessarily hate Jamarcus Russell either... but he's a reach when Calvin Johnson is on the board.

At least Jamarcus was healthy... Bradford isn't even healthy.

if the board goes 1 suh 2 okung 3 mccoy ok yes he's probably best player available at 4. but saying he's worth 4 why isn't he worth 1 ignores both his injury problems and the best DL prospect for several decades.

I may have been "right" about Calvin Johnson but I didn't predict the draft correctly and that's my goal, to predict the draft. SO i was "wrong" then and unless i change the SUH pick on my mock i might be wrong again

[Beerfish]

Sanchez: Dislocated knee cap, patella tendon injury in college. Reinjured the knee this year. Did that make him a huge ?

2007 broken thumb
2008 dislocated knee cap

Bradford: Injured shoulder.

2007 14 games played
2008 14 games played
2009 2 games played

Matt Ryan:

2006 sprained ankle, broken foot

The key thing is to see how the guy plays, has the injury affected his arm or not? does he look good and strong, what do the doctors say?

College and pro football, everyone gets hurt at some point in time. If the guy comes back throwing like Pennington after the injury, huge concern. If the guy has been injured each of his last 3 years in college, concern.

[Paradis]

Pettigrew

[TheMo]

Here is the problem... when you don't take your opportunity to get a franchise QB you often will not get that shot of a good while after. Often times franchise QBs or those with the potential do not make it to 10-15. Get someone like Suh and all of a sudden you are a middling 6-10/7-9 team. Problem is you need a franchise QB to take the next step... but whadya know now that you are in the middle of the draft you can't get one anymore. Reverse the scenario and you are a middling team, possibly worse if you redshirted your rookie QB (a good choice for teams like the rams who have so little talent everywhere). But now you need a DT at 10-15. Much better shot at getting a really really good DT at 10-15. JMHO feel free to disagree, it's just my POV

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

Sanchez: Dislocated knee cap, patella tendon injury in college. Reinjured the knee this year. Did that make him a huge ?

2007 broken thumb
2008 dislocated knee cap

Bradford: Injured shoulder.

2007 14 games played
2008 14 games played
2009 2 games played

Matt Ryan:

2006 sprained ankle, broken foot

The key thing is to see how the guy plays, has the injury affected his arm or not? does he look good and strong, what do the doctors say?

College and pro football, everyone gets hurt at some point in time. If the guy comes back throwing like Pennington after the injury, huge concern. If the guy has been injured each of his last 3 years in college, concern.

all injuries are not created equal

a QB can get hurt almost anywhere but the throwing shoulder and be just fine. knee, foot, whatever.

but throwing shoulders worry me... as for the "throwing like Pennington" comment... how will the teams know? based on 1 pro day?

too much uncertainty to pass on Suh. If there's no Suh in this draft I can see the case... but Suh is a perfect prospect.

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by TheMo

Here is the problem... when you don't take your opportunity to get a franchise QB you often will not get that shot of a good while after. Often times franchise QBs or those with the potential do not make it to 10-15. Get someone like Suh and all of a sudden you are a middling 6-10/7-9 team. Problem is you need a franchise QB to take the next step... but whadya know now that you are in the middle of the draft you can't get one anymore. Reverse the scenario and you are a middling team, possibly worse if you redshirted your rookie QB (a good choice for teams like the rams who have so little talent everywhere). But now you need a DT at 10-15. Much better shot at getting a really really good DT at 10-15. JMHO feel free to disagree, it's just my POV

I agree with that logic except that 'wanting a franchise QB' and 'actually drafting a franchise QB' are seperate issues.

If the Rams draft Bradford and he gets hurt again they are screwed even worse. Passing up on Suh, if he becomes an all-pro, is a fire able offense for a General Manager.

[augustiniak]

Originally Posted by bitonti

I agree with that logic except that 'wanting a franchise QB' and 'actually drafting a franchise QB' are seperate issues.

If the Rams draft Bradford and he gets hurt again they are screwed even worse. Passing up on Suh, if he becomes an all-pro, is a fire able offense for a General Manager.

the problem is that the rams whiffed on ryan, flacco and sanchez and now there's immense pressure to not whiff on the next one. i don't like bradford as a pro prospect, but i understand why the rams will take him. i don't even think the arm strength/health is the main issue. i think he's going to have a huge adjustment to the pro game with his college experience.

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by augustiniak

now there's immense pressure to not whiff on the next one.

another small point, where is this pressure coming from? The STL fans, who want Suh? the absentee owner? the new not-yet-approved owner?

There is no real pressure on these guys. There is no leadership at the Rams to sign off on this pick, to say to the scouting Dept, yes we know Suh is a more highly ranked prospect but we want to get the QB.

from a purely scouting perspective Suh is a better prospect than Bradford. It takes a meddlesome owner to over-rule that scouting and they dont have any owner to speak of...

[augustiniak]

Originally Posted by bitonti

another small point, where is this pressure coming from? The STL fans, who want Suh? the absentee owner? the new not-yet-approved owner?

There is no real pressure on these guys. There is no leadership at the Rams to sign off on this pick, to say to the scouting Dept, yes we know Suh is a more highly ranked prospect but we want to get the QB.

from a purely scouting perspective Suh is a better prospect than Bradford. It takes a meddlesome owner to over-rule that scouting and they dont have any owner to speak of...

the pressure comes from the perception they 'missed the boat' on a few good qbs. the media starts writing how the rams keep screwing up, and before you know it, the rams are being mocked. as it is they have the 1st pick in the draft, which means they were the worst team the year before. so much of the pressure comes from outside the organization, and while it's not rational, it can weigh heavily on people when another perceived failure will not be tolerated.

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by augustiniak

the pressure comes from the perception they 'missed the boat' on a few good qbs. the media starts writing how the rams keep screwing up, and before you know it, the rams are being mocked. as it is they have the 1st pick in the draft, which means they were the worst team the year before. so much of the pressure comes from outside the organization, and while it's not rational, it can weigh heavily on people when another perceived failure will not be tolerated.

the media is not going to get these guys to go away from their boards. They are professionals, if the only force they have to be beholden to is the media, they have it easier than the other 31 teams.


just like you need a QB to win, a bad QB pick can set the franchise back 5 years... drafting Bradford at 1 is playing with fire, especially if Suh pans out.

[eaglenj]

Originally Posted by bitonti

Passing up on Suh, if he becomes an all-pro, is a fire able offense for a General Manager.

I think this is a HUGE point that rarely gets discussed when we are all talking about who gets picked where, or more importantly, who hit and missed on past picks (notably Gholston).

There are a million different qualities or players to like, but when it comes down to it, these guys have to bet their jobs and careers on the picks, so taking chances is much easier said then done.

There were all players that fans liked better then Gholston, that were better on the field, loved football more, etc but at the end of the day, you dont get fired for missing on Gholston because most "NFL People" thought he was the best edge rusher in that draft. If you take him and miss, so be it....every player doesnt work out for the best.

However, if you convince the organization that you dont think he is "the guy", the team passes on him and he goes on to be the dominant rusher that he was "supposed to be"....then thats the type of thing that gets you FIRED.

Consensus is Okung is a more risky prospect then Suh, not by a lot, but more so...he could be good, but if Suh becomes Reggie White, well that detroit GM will have that label for the rest of his career.

The risk doesnt always equal the reward for these guys, and although its not fair, its why the detroit GM should takes Suh, and deals with OT afterwards.

[augustiniak]

Originally Posted by bitonti

the media is not going to get these guys to go away from their boards. They are professionals, if the only force they have to be beholden to is the media, they have it easier than the other 31 teams.


just like you need a QB to win, a bad QB pick can set the franchise back 5 years... drafting Bradford at 1 is playing with fire, especially if Suh pans out.

when there are jobs on the line, people make decisions that are designed to protect their jobs. drafting bradford may not be the smart thing to do but it may placate an owner who is embarrassed that he/she believes the team 'missed out' on franchise qbs in recent years you're approaching this from too logical a vantage point. the human element definitely comes into play even in making these huge decisions.

[Beerfish]

Originally Posted by eaglenj

I think this is a HUGE point that rarely gets discussed when we are all talking about who gets picked where, or more importantly, who hit and missed on past picks (notably Gholston).

There are a million different qualities or players to like, but when it comes down to it, these guys have to bet their jobs and careers on the picks, so taking chances is much easier said then done.

There were all players that fans liked better then Gholston, that were better on the field, loved football more, etc but at the end of the day, you dont get fired for missing on Gholston because most "NFL People" thought he was the best edge rusher in that draft. If you take him and miss, so be it....every player doesnt work out for the best.

However, if you convince the organization that you dont think he is "the guy", the team passes on him and he goes on to be the dominant rusher that he was "supposed to be"....then thats the type of thing that gets you FIRED.

Consensus is Okung is a more risky prospect then Suh, not by a lot, but more so...he could be good, but if Suh becomes Reggie White, well that detroit GM will have that label for the rest of his career.

The risk doesnt always equal the reward for these guys, and although its not fair, its why the detroit GM should takes Suh, and deals with OT afterwards.

That can go two ways. If next year Stafford is out with another broken collar bone are people going to be giving them a break for not taking the best OT because the DT was better? This gets compounded when Detroit did not take an OT of note last year when they had multiple high picks. (two 1sts, a 2nd and 2 3rds)

With apologies to Paradis, taking Pettigrew when they could have had Oher was numbskullish. All positions are not created = and a LT can have a dramatic effect on the most important player on your team (the QB)

[augustiniak]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

That can go two ways. If next year Stafford is out with another broken collar bone are people going to be giving them a break for not taking the best OT because the DT was better? This gets compounded when Detroit did not take an OT of note last year when they had multiple high picks. (two 1sts, a 2nd and 2 3rds)

With apologies to Paradis, taking Pettigrew when they could have had Oher was numbskullish. All positions are not created = and a LT can have a dramatic effect on the most important player on your team (the QB)

yes. that's why it is not always a BAP philosophy, b/c some positions are more important than others. that's why i am opposed to the jets taking a guard or a safety in the first round when there will likely be players of equal value at more important positions.

[bitonti]

Originally Posted by augustiniak

when there are jobs on the line, people make decisions that are designed to protect their jobs. drafting bradford may not be the smart thing to do but it may placate an owner who is embarrassed that he/she believes the team 'missed out' on franchise qbs in recent years you're approaching this from too logical a vantage point. the human element definitely comes into play even in making these huge decisions.

i agree with all this logic...

only problem is the Rams are between owners

there is no embarrassed or meddlesome owner to force this pick to happen... if this were the skins, boys, bengals or raiders i could definitely see this happening.

[bitonti]

via Twitter

http://twitter.com/NdamukongRising

The Rams have begun preliminary contract negotiations with the player rep for DT Ndamukong Suh. #NFL #draft

edit... NFL.com reports talks also with Bradford and others... http://bit.ly/cyVdt4

still i wonder which is cheaper the DT at 1 or the QB at 1?