Convention Bounce... - Jets Insider.com Forums

JetFanTransplant · 08-02-2004, 11:54 AM

[url=http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=9753&cid=15&cname=Politics]No convention bounce for Kerry[/url]

No convention bounce for Kerry

Presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry has failed to generate any polling "bounce" following the Democratic Party's national nominating convention, Gallup said today.

The polling institution said movement in the wake of the nomination convention -- which typically provides candidates with short-term gains of up to 13 percentage points in polls -- actually went against Senator Kerry.

Gallup's poll out today shows incumbent president George W Bush with 50 per cent of the vote against Mr Kerry's 47 per cent among likely voters. Among registered voters, those numbers are flipped with Mr Kerry claiming 50 per cent and Mr Bush 47 per cent.

Compared with pre-convention results, undecideds have begun making choices.

Among likely voters, Mr Kerry's support is two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Mr Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points -- the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups.

"All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95 per cent certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry," Gallup said.

Since 1950, Gallup said, the Democratic candidate has received approximately a seven-point increase in support following the convention. The current poll shows only a one-point increase among registered voters. In addition, following previous Democratic conventions, the Republican candidate also lost an average of about five points, making the net effect essentially a 12-point swing in the lead. The current poll shows only a 1-point swing in the lead among registered voters, but for the Republican, not the Democrat, Gallup said.

In the current poll, if independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the vote tally, Mr Bush leads Mr Kerry by four points among likely voters (50 per cent to 46 per cent), with Mr Nader receiving 2 per cent.

Support for Mr Nader also dropped off marginally in the wake of the convention, Gallup said, which might be expected since the overwhelming majority of Mr Nader's support is drawn from the nominally Democrat voter base.

Still, Gallup concludes that, ro the extent that there is any bounce in this three-candidate ballot, it is for Bush rather than Kerry.

2-Aug-2004

So just to recap here.... Kerry went DOWN in the polls... Nader went DOWN in the polls... that sounds pretty telling to me. FWIW

JetFanTransplant · 08-02-2004, 11:56 AM

Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce

[url=http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12565]Gallup Poll[/url]

AlbanyJet · 08-02-2004, 12:35 PM

Kerry is a Zero!!

This is the first obvious chink in Kerry's...armor.

Hillary Clinton sat up and took notice of this poll, believe me. She's going for it in 2008!

pope · 08-02-2004, 03:16 PM

The peeps saw right through this fraud.

08-02-2004, 10:08 PM

[quote][i]Originally posted by JetFanTransplant[/i]@Aug 2 2004, 11:54 AM
[b] Among likely voters, Mr Kerry's support is two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Mr Bush's support is three points higher. [/b][/quote]
Geez, and here I thought Nader was gonna get the 3%. :lol: B)

08-02-2004, 10:58 PM

Yeah. Kerry is toast right now.

AlbanyJet · 08-03-2004, 11:48 AM

Ha ha ha...Bush actually goes UP after Kerry's convention. That's funny!!

bitonti · 08-03-2004, 01:13 PM

Kerry got his convention bounce 3 months ago when he was handed the nomination... the nation is still split pretty much down the middle

at the end of the day it will come down to voting and who shows up - maybe im wrong but the Bush haters seem to be more Angry than the Bush lovers. Also it is my perception that even the military votes and American ex-patriates are more likely to fill in forms against Bush then for him.

AlbanyJet · 08-03-2004, 02:44 PM

[quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Aug 3 2004, 01:13 PM
[b] Kerry got his convention bounce 3 months ago when he was handed the nomination... the nation is still split pretty much down the middle

at the end of the day it will come down to voting and who shows up - maybe im wrong but the Bush haters seem to be more Angry than the Bush lovers. Also it is my perception that even the military votes and American ex-patriates are more likely to fill in forms against Bush then for him. [/b][/quote]
Ironically, I see it quite different. I guess I'm old fashioned but, to me, Kerry still needs to provide people a reason to vote FOR him. What did Ralph Nader say about the Democratic Convention - "This isn't unity. This is forced conformity."

There's little voting mileage in hating a candidate, Bush or anyone else.

bitonti · 08-03-2004, 02:47 PM

[quote][i]Originally posted by AlbanyJet[/i]@Aug 3 2004, 02:44 PM
[b] There's little voting mileage in hating a candidate, Bush or anyone else. [/b][/quote]
all the "anyone but bush" t shirts, bumper stickers and websites would beg to differ

AlbanyJet · 08-03-2004, 03:00 PM

[quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti+Aug 3 2004, 02:47 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (bitonti @ Aug 3 2004, 02:47 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--AlbanyJet[/i]@Aug 3 2004, 02:44 PM
[b] There's little voting mileage in hating a candidate, Bush or anyone else. [/b][/quote]
all the "anyone but bush" t shirts, bumper stickers and websites would beg to differ [/b][/quote]
Kerry bounce McGovern-esque!

[url=http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/03/politics/campaign/03bounce.html]http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/03/politics...n/03bounce.html[/url]

And we all know what happened to George McGovern.

(Please don't try to explain Kerry's lack of a bounce. I've heard the excuses and I don't
buy any of them.)

bitonti · 08-03-2004, 03:06 PM

blah blah blah

when the polls are positive for Bush they are gospel truth

when the polls are positive for Kerry they are garbage not worth the paper they are printed on

most polls have a +- of 3 points and most polls also have Kerry and Bush today within 3 points of each other.

the bottom line is this election is very close to call, and even if we grant for the sake of argument a lack of a bounce it's still a toss up and Bush should be worried.

as far as im concerned the pressure in this situation is on the incumbant, not the challenger - no one expects Kerry to win but people expect Bush to win... it's a dangerous situation for the GOP and if you don't believe me, ask Karl Rove. B)

the difference maker is how much people hate Cheney - dear lord talk about negative approval ratings he's reviled. If Bush kicked off Cheney and replaced him with Rudy he would walk in Nov. Right now it's a photo finish.

08-02-2004, 11:54 AM	#1
JetFanTransplant Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: On some beach... somewhere... Posts: 3,735	[url=http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=9753&cid=15&cname=Politics]No convention bounce for Kerry[/url] No convention bounce for Kerry Presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry has failed to generate any polling "bounce" following the Democratic Party's national nominating convention, Gallup said today. The polling institution said movement in the wake of the nomination convention -- which typically provides candidates with short-term gains of up to 13 percentage points in polls -- actually went against Senator Kerry. Gallup's poll out today shows incumbent president George W Bush with 50 per cent of the vote against Mr Kerry's 47 per cent among likely voters. Among registered voters, those numbers are flipped with Mr Kerry claiming 50 per cent and Mr Bush 47 per cent. Compared with pre-convention results, undecideds have begun making choices. Among likely voters, Mr Kerry's support is two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Mr Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points -- the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups. "All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95 per cent certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry," Gallup said. Since 1950, Gallup said, the Democratic candidate has received approximately a seven-point increase in support following the convention. The current poll shows only a one-point increase among registered voters. In addition, following previous Democratic conventions, the Republican candidate also lost an average of about five points, making the net effect essentially a 12-point swing in the lead. The current poll shows only a 1-point swing in the lead among registered voters, but for the Republican, not the Democrat, Gallup said. In the current poll, if independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the vote tally, Mr Bush leads Mr Kerry by four points among likely voters (50 per cent to 46 per cent), with Mr Nader receiving 2 per cent. Support for Mr Nader also dropped off marginally in the wake of the convention, Gallup said, which might be expected since the overwhelming majority of Mr Nader's support is drawn from the nominally Democrat voter base. Still, Gallup concludes that, ro the extent that there is any bounce in this three-candidate ballot, it is for Bush rather than Kerry. 2-Aug-2004 So just to recap here.... Kerry went DOWN in the polls... Nader went DOWN in the polls... that sounds pretty telling to me. FWIW

08-02-2004, 11:56 AM	#2
JetFanTransplant Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: On some beach... somewhere... Posts: 3,735	Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce [url=http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12565]Gallup Poll[/url]

08-02-2004, 12:35 PM	#3
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	Kerry is a Zero!! This is the first obvious chink in Kerry's...armor. Hillary Clinton sat up and took notice of this poll, believe me. She's going for it in 2008!

08-02-2004, 03:16 PM	#4
pope Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 5,979	The peeps saw right through this fraud.

08-02-2004, 10:08 PM	#5
Tom The Nader Fan™ Edit Status Guest Posts: n/a	[quote][i]Originally posted by JetFanTransplant[/i]@Aug 2 2004, 11:54 AM [b] Among likely voters, Mr Kerry's support is two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Mr Bush's support is three points higher. [/b][/quote] Geez, and here I thought Nader was gonna get the 3%. :lol: B)

08-02-2004, 10:58 PM	#6
TomShane Edit Status Guest Posts: n/a	Yeah. Kerry is toast right now.

08-03-2004, 11:48 AM	#7
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	Ha ha ha...Bush actually goes UP after Kerry's convention. That's funny!!

08-03-2004, 01:13 PM	#8
bitonti searching Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Philly Posts: 38,786	Kerry got his convention bounce 3 months ago when he was handed the nomination... the nation is still split pretty much down the middle at the end of the day it will come down to voting and who shows up - maybe im wrong but the Bush haters seem to be more Angry than the Bush lovers. Also it is my perception that even the military votes and American ex-patriates are more likely to fill in forms against Bush then for him.

08-03-2004, 02:44 PM	#9
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	[quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Aug 3 2004, 01:13 PM [b] Kerry got his convention bounce 3 months ago when he was handed the nomination... the nation is still split pretty much down the middle at the end of the day it will come down to voting and who shows up - maybe im wrong but the Bush haters seem to be more Angry than the Bush lovers. Also it is my perception that even the military votes and American ex-patriates are more likely to fill in forms against Bush then for him. [/b][/quote] Ironically, I see it quite different. I guess I'm old fashioned but, to me, Kerry still needs to provide people a reason to vote FOR him. What did Ralph Nader say about the Democratic Convention - "This isn't unity. This is forced conformity." There's little voting mileage in hating a candidate, Bush or anyone else.

08-03-2004, 02:47 PM	#10
bitonti searching Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Philly Posts: 38,786	[quote][i]Originally posted by AlbanyJet[/i]@Aug 3 2004, 02:44 PM [b] There's little voting mileage in hating a candidate, Bush or anyone else. [/b][/quote] all the "anyone but bush" t shirts, bumper stickers and websites would beg to differ

08-03-2004, 03:00 PM	#11
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	[quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti+Aug 3 2004, 02:47 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (bitonti @ Aug 3 2004, 02:47 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--AlbanyJet[/i]@Aug 3 2004, 02:44 PM [b] There's little voting mileage in hating a candidate, Bush or anyone else. [/b][/quote] all the "anyone but bush" t shirts, bumper stickers and websites would beg to differ [/b][/quote] Kerry bounce McGovern-esque! [url=http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/03/politics/campaign/03bounce.html]http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/03/politics...n/03bounce.html[/url] And we all know what happened to George McGovern. (Please don't try to explain Kerry's lack of a bounce. I've heard the excuses and I don't buy any of them.)

08-03-2004, 03:06 PM	#12
bitonti searching Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Philly Posts: 38,786	blah blah blah when the polls are positive for Bush they are gospel truth when the polls are positive for Kerry they are garbage not worth the paper they are printed on most polls have a +- of 3 points and most polls also have Kerry and Bush today within 3 points of each other. the bottom line is this election is very close to call, and even if we grant for the sake of argument a lack of a bounce it's still a toss up and Bush should be worried. as far as im concerned the pressure in this situation is on the incumbant, not the challenger - no one expects Kerry to win but people expect Bush to win... it's a dangerous situation for the GOP and if you don't believe me, ask Karl Rove. B) the difference maker is how much people hate Cheney - dear lord talk about negative approval ratings he's reviled. If Bush kicked off Cheney and replaced him with Rudy he would walk in Nov. Right now it's a photo finish.