The AFC Championship Game Threepeat Is Virtually Impossible Anyway - Jets Insider.com Forums

SAR I · 01-03-2012, 10:33 PM

[IMG]http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n114/srubenst/afccgrare.jpg[/IMG]

Posted this chart after the Pittsburgh loss last February, but it bears repeating: What Ryan and Sanchez accomplished in '09 and '10 was a very difficult feat in and of itself, practically historic. Not pointing that out to pat them on the back, but rather to make a point.

Some of the most prolific head coach/QB tandem's in AFC history only made it to one set of AFCCG's, and in the modern salary cap era no one has threepeated. Brady/Belichick couldn't do it. Elway/Reeves couldn't do it. Marino/Shula couldn't do it. Roethlisberger/Cowher, no. Coryell/Fouts, nope. Manning/Colts, nope.

The odds are long that Sanchez/Ryan will get back there, but the hope here is this: An awful season like this one can only be the slap in the face that this team needs to focus and improve on next year. Seeing that the odds were very much against us making a run again this year, better to flame out brilliantly than eke into the playoffs, beat the Texans, give the FO a false read on our talent level on the sidelines and between the hashmarks. Now that the Jets have been exposed for who they are, the necessary changes can take place.

Here's to better things in 2012.

SAR I

rextilleon · 01-03-2012, 10:36 PM

Thank you Sar--everything is fine. Just a bit of tweaking is needed.

skillosopher · 01-03-2012, 10:38 PM

Amen brother!:clapper:

Jetfan16 · 01-03-2012, 10:41 PM

[QUOTE=SAR I;4310265][IMG]http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n114/srubenst/afccgrare.jpg[/IMG]

Posted this chart after the Pittsburgh loss last February, but it bears repeating: What Ryan and Sanchez accomplished in '09 and '10 was a very difficult feat in and of itself, practically historic. Not pointing that out to pat them on the back, but rather to make a point.

Some of the most prolific head coach/QB tandem's in AFC history only made it to one set of AFCCG's, and in the modern salary cap era no one has threepeated. Brady/Belichick couldn't do it. Elway/Reeves couldn't do it. Marino/Shula couldn't do it. Roethlisberger/Cowher, no. Coryell/Fouts, nope. Manning/Colts, nope.

The odds are long that Sanchez/Ryan will get back there, but the hope here is this: An awful season like this one can only be the slap in the face that this team needs to focus and improve on next year. Seeing that the odds were very much against us making a run again this year, better to flame out brilliantly than eke into the playoffs, beat the Texans, give the FO a false read on our talent level on the sidelines and between the hashmarks. Now that the Jets have been exposed for who they are, the necessary changes can take place.

Here's to better things in 2012.

SAR I[/QUOTE]

Im surprised nobody lifted this thesis of yours and tried to pass it off as their own after the end of this season, kind of like a few people did about when you had repeatedly stated last year that the team slept walk through their games, and by all rites should've been an 8-8 team that lucked their way into an 11-5 record.

Darook · 01-03-2012, 10:44 PM

I remember you posting this last year and thinking we might be the ones to buck the trend, but alas I thought Browning Nagle was going to be the real deal.

BushyTheBeaver · 01-03-2012, 10:48 PM

Fouts, Marino, Elway, Brady, Sanchez.

One of these things is not like the others. :rolleyes:

SAR I · 01-03-2012, 10:57 PM

[QUOTE=Jetfan16;4310288]Im surprised nobody lifted this thesis of yours and tried to pass it off as their own after the end of this season, kind of like a few people did about when you had repeatedly stated last year that the team slept walk through their games, and by all rites should've been an 8-8 team that lucked their way into an 11-5 record.[/QUOTE]

Thank you for the kind words and continued support JF16, I'm as happy as I can be in a week where we're eliminated because it feels like this ugly secret I've been carrying around for years has finally come out and I no longer feel the burden I've felt.

I wish I could tell you I know what happens next, but I don't. I'm pretty good at smelling the decay of a team, seeing the quit in their eyes, sensing that the head coach is on his last legs. But I simply haven't been a fan of a pro sports team that went longer than a handful of years with the same guy outside of Joe Torre. My owners always do the cut-and-run. If Woody is truly sticking with Mike and Rex for a decade, it's uncharted waters for me.

SAR I

carlito1171 · 01-03-2012, 11:00 PM

I agree with you 100% SAR.

Magnus · 01-03-2012, 11:19 PM

No once the accomplishment of making the AFC championship games the last 2 years was made there were no less odds of going this year than any other year. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 3 straight times is 12.5% However once you landed on heads the first 2 times the odds of getting heads on the third try is the same 50% as it was the first time you flipped it.

SAR I · 01-03-2012, 11:41 PM

[QUOTE=Magnus;4310340]No once the accomplishment of making the AFC championship games the last 2 years was made there were no less odds of going this year than any other year. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 3 straight times is 12.5% However once you landed on heads the first 2 times the odds of getting heads on the third try is the same 50% as it was the first time you flipped it.[/QUOTE]

Makes a lot of sense.

Tell that to Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, John Elway, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady.

Some of the best QB's in NFL history right there, didn't get that 12.5% or that 50% you're hanging your hat on.

SAR I

Rexipus Rex · 01-03-2012, 11:43 PM

[QUOTE=SAR I;4310265]

The odds are long that Sanchez/Ryan will get back there, but the hope here is this: An awful season like this one can only be the slap in the face that this team needs to focus and improve on next year. Seeing that the odds were very much against us making a run again this year, better to flame out brilliantly than eke into the playoffs, beat the Texans, give the FO a false read on our talent level on the sidelines and between the hashmarks. Now that the Jets have been exposed for who they are, the necessary changes can take place.

Here's to better things in 2012.

SAR I[/QUOTE]

This is a great paragraph.

While I don't think 2012 is a do or die year for the FO & Rex Ryan (meaning I don't see the possibility of Tannenbaum and/or Rex getting dumped after next year), I do think that this is their most critical offseason.

Hopefully this year was as humbling for them as it was for us fans. The sooner they realize that we are more than just one piece away from a ring, the better. This year could either be an aberration for Rex/Tanny, or it could be the sign of decline. I'm rooting for the first and not the latter.

GoBigGreen · 01-04-2012, 12:01 AM

I remember SAR posting this after last year's disappointment. He realized then what opportunity we squandered. He caught a lot of **** for it too from "Homers 'R Us." The Jets get this far on average once every 10 years. Something tells me we are going to keep that statistic alive as we rebuild and try again.

SONNY WERBLIN · 01-04-2012, 12:32 AM

[QUOTE=SAR I;4310377]Makes a lot of sense.

Tell that to Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, John Elway, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady.

Some of the best QB's in NFL history right there, didn't get that 12.5% or that 50% you're hanging your hat on.

SAR I[/QUOTE]

yeah, but how about the Steelers playing in the AFC Championship game in 8 of the past 17 seasons!!! That's 47%!!!

tke124 · 01-04-2012, 03:21 AM

Sar your threads and insiight are usually spot on and although some statements are outlandish I almost always agree with you. I do think many don't like reading the negative posts because they hold there team close which we all do but the negative vibe true or not can be upsetting to some. The key word you had in this thread is exposed. Now lets see if the two Jet twins actually understand how flawed they and their team are and do the right things this off season to change their ways and correct the teams flaws
Wasn't it said that Mason would catch 90balls this year? If so, then Holmes should of caught 190!..just a little food for thought

MCBNY · 01-04-2012, 03:33 AM

[QUOTE=SONNY WERBLIN;4310409]yeah, but how about the Steelers playing in the AFC Championship game in 8 of the past 17 seasons!!! That's 47%!!![/QUOTE]

Pittsburgh is a one of a kind organization in pro sports. Truly remarkable.

RaoulDuke · 01-04-2012, 03:59 AM

[QUOTE=Magnus;4310340]No once the accomplishment of making the AFC championship games the last 2 years was made there were no less odds of going this year than any other year. [B]The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 3 straight times is 12.5% However once you landed on heads the first 2 times the odds of getting heads on the third try is the same 50% as it was the first time you flipped it[/B].[/QUOTE]

Fail

You make a point, then make a false statement.

Individually yes, your chances are 50%. Your chances of getting the same result 3 times in a row are 1/8 like you said initially. You can't ignore the previous 2 results.

01-03-2012, 10:33 PM	#1
SAR I is excitedly looking forward to December22, the last home game, The Rexecution Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 38,659	The AFC Championship Game Threepeat Is Virtually Impossible Anyway [IMG]http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n114/srubenst/afccgrare.jpg[/IMG] Posted this chart after the Pittsburgh loss last February, but it bears repeating: What Ryan and Sanchez accomplished in '09 and '10 was a very difficult feat in and of itself, practically historic. Not pointing that out to pat them on the back, but rather to make a point. Some of the most prolific head coach/QB tandem's in AFC history only made it to one set of AFCCG's, and in the modern salary cap era no one has threepeated. Brady/Belichick couldn't do it. Elway/Reeves couldn't do it. Marino/Shula couldn't do it. Roethlisberger/Cowher, no. Coryell/Fouts, nope. Manning/Colts, nope. The odds are long that Sanchez/Ryan will get back there, but the hope here is this: An awful season like this one can only be the slap in the face that this team needs to focus and improve on next year. Seeing that the odds were very much against us making a run again this year, better to flame out brilliantly than eke into the playoffs, beat the Texans, give the FO a false read on our talent level on the sidelines and between the hashmarks. Now that the Jets have been exposed for who they are, the necessary changes can take place. Here's to better things in 2012. SAR I

01-03-2012, 10:36 PM	#2
rextilleon Is Itzdik the Man? All League Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,648	Thank you Sar--everything is fine. Just a bit of tweaking is needed.

01-03-2012, 10:38 PM	#3
skillosopher Practice Squad Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Honolulu, HI Posts: 47	Amen brother!:clapper:

01-03-2012, 10:41 PM	#4
Jetfan16 I believe you..... BUT MY TOMMY GUN DONT! Hall Of Fame Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 9,813	[QUOTE=SAR I;4310265][IMG]http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n114/srubenst/afccgrare.jpg[/IMG] Posted this chart after the Pittsburgh loss last February, but it bears repeating: What Ryan and Sanchez accomplished in '09 and '10 was a very difficult feat in and of itself, practically historic. Not pointing that out to pat them on the back, but rather to make a point. Some of the most prolific head coach/QB tandem's in AFC history only made it to one set of AFCCG's, and in the modern salary cap era no one has threepeated. Brady/Belichick couldn't do it. Elway/Reeves couldn't do it. Marino/Shula couldn't do it. Roethlisberger/Cowher, no. Coryell/Fouts, nope. Manning/Colts, nope. The odds are long that Sanchez/Ryan will get back there, but the hope here is this: An awful season like this one can only be the slap in the face that this team needs to focus and improve on next year. Seeing that the odds were very much against us making a run again this year, better to flame out brilliantly than eke into the playoffs, beat the Texans, give the FO a false read on our talent level on the sidelines and between the hashmarks. Now that the Jets have been exposed for who they are, the necessary changes can take place. Here's to better things in 2012. SAR I[/QUOTE] Im surprised nobody lifted this thesis of yours and tried to pass it off as their own after the end of this season, kind of like a few people did about when you had repeatedly stated last year that the team slept walk through their games, and by all rites should've been an 8-8 team that lucked their way into an 11-5 record.

01-03-2012, 10:44 PM	#5
Darook 2013 draft - this is how you build a team! Undrafted Free Agent Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 242	I remember you posting this last year and thinking we might be the ones to buck the trend, but alas I thought Browning Nagle was going to be the real deal.

01-03-2012, 10:48 PM	#6
BushyTheBeaver size matters All League Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 3,922	Fouts, Marino, Elway, Brady, Sanchez. One of these things is not like the others. :rolleyes:

01-03-2012, 10:57 PM	#7
SAR I is excitedly looking forward to December22, the last home game, The Rexecution Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 38,659	[QUOTE=Jetfan16;4310288]Im surprised nobody lifted this thesis of yours and tried to pass it off as their own after the end of this season, kind of like a few people did about when you had repeatedly stated last year that the team slept walk through their games, and by all rites should've been an 8-8 team that lucked their way into an 11-5 record.[/QUOTE] Thank you for the kind words and continued support JF16, I'm as happy as I can be in a week where we're eliminated because it feels like this ugly secret I've been carrying around for years has finally come out and I no longer feel the burden I've felt. I wish I could tell you I know what happens next, but I don't. I'm pretty good at smelling the decay of a team, seeing the quit in their eyes, sensing that the head coach is on his last legs. But I simply haven't been a fan of a pro sports team that went longer than a handful of years with the same guy outside of Joe Torre. My owners always do the cut-and-run. If Woody is truly sticking with Mike and Rex for a decade, it's uncharted waters for me. SAR I

01-03-2012, 11:00 PM	#8
carlito1171 The Dawn of the John Idzik Era All League Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 2,856	I agree with you 100% SAR.

01-03-2012, 11:19 PM	#9
Magnus Veteran Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,738	No once the accomplishment of making the AFC championship games the last 2 years was made there were no less odds of going this year than any other year. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 3 straight times is 12.5% However once you landed on heads the first 2 times the odds of getting heads on the third try is the same 50% as it was the first time you flipped it.

01-03-2012, 11:41 PM	#10
SAR I is excitedly looking forward to December22, the last home game, The Rexecution Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 38,659	[QUOTE=Magnus;4310340]No once the accomplishment of making the AFC championship games the last 2 years was made there were no less odds of going this year than any other year. The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 3 straight times is 12.5% However once you landed on heads the first 2 times the odds of getting heads on the third try is the same 50% as it was the first time you flipped it.[/QUOTE] Makes a lot of sense. Tell that to Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, John Elway, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. Some of the best QB's in NFL history right there, didn't get that 12.5% or that 50% you're hanging your hat on. SAR I

01-03-2012, 11:43 PM	#11
Rexipus Rex Mo' money Veteran Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: E'Ville Posts: 1,199	[QUOTE=SAR I;4310265] The odds are long that Sanchez/Ryan will get back there, but the hope here is this: An awful season like this one can only be the slap in the face that this team needs to focus and improve on next year. Seeing that the odds were very much against us making a run again this year, better to flame out brilliantly than eke into the playoffs, beat the Texans, give the FO a false read on our talent level on the sidelines and between the hashmarks. Now that the Jets have been exposed for who they are, the necessary changes can take place. Here's to better things in 2012. SAR I[/QUOTE] This is a great paragraph. While I don't think 2012 is a do or die year for the FO & Rex Ryan (meaning I don't see the possibility of Tannenbaum and/or Rex getting dumped after next year), I do think that this is their most critical offseason. Hopefully this year was as humbling for them as it was for us fans. The sooner they realize that we are more than just one piece away from a ring, the better. This year could either be an aberration for Rex/Tanny, or it could be the sign of decline. I'm rooting for the first and not the latter.

01-04-2012, 12:01 AM	#12
GoBigGreen Veteran Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Omaha, Nebraska Posts: 1,002	I remember SAR posting this after last year's disappointment. He realized then what opportunity we squandered. He caught a lot of **** for it too from "Homers 'R Us." The Jets get this far on average once every 10 years. Something tells me we are going to keep that statistic alive as we rebuild and try again.

01-04-2012, 12:32 AM	#13
SONNY WERBLIN Veteran Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 2,355	[QUOTE=SAR I;4310377]Makes a lot of sense. Tell that to Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, John Elway, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. Some of the best QB's in NFL history right there, didn't get that 12.5% or that 50% you're hanging your hat on. SAR I[/QUOTE] yeah, but how about the Steelers playing in the AFC Championship game in 8 of the past 17 seasons!!! That's 47%!!!

01-04-2012, 03:21 AM	#14
tke124 Rookie Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 91	Sar your threads and insiight are usually spot on and although some statements are outlandish I almost always agree with you. I do think many don't like reading the negative posts because they hold there team close which we all do but the negative vibe true or not can be upsetting to some. The key word you had in this thread is exposed. Now lets see if the two Jet twins actually understand how flawed they and their team are and do the right things this off season to change their ways and correct the teams flaws Wasn't it said that Mason would catch 90balls this year? If so, then Holmes should of caught 190!..just a little food for thought

01-04-2012, 03:33 AM	#15
MCBNY Token Liberal All League Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Brooklyn Posts: 2,973	[QUOTE=SONNY WERBLIN;4310409]yeah, but how about the Steelers playing in the AFC Championship game in 8 of the past 17 seasons!!! That's 47%!!![/QUOTE] Pittsburgh is a one of a kind organization in pro sports. Truly remarkable.

01-04-2012, 03:59 AM	#16
RaoulDuke Son of Ham Hall Of Fame Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Paris, France Posts: 11,869	[QUOTE=Magnus;4310340]No once the accomplishment of making the AFC championship games the last 2 years was made there were no less odds of going this year than any other year. [B]The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 3 straight times is 12.5% However once you landed on heads the first 2 times the odds of getting heads on the third try is the same 50% as it was the first time you flipped it[/B].[/QUOTE] Fail You make a point, then make a false statement. Individually yes, your chances are 50%. Your chances of getting the same result 3 times in a row are 1/8 like you said initially. You can't ignore the previous 2 results.