Should Knicks match a backloaded deal for Lin?

[brady's a catcher]

I love Felton for 3/10 vs Lin for 15 in year 3. Also really like having a true PG. Plenty of scorers and Lin was a TO machine, defensive liability, and just too weak physically.

Nothing against him and wish him well in strip mall hell but I think he got exposed as season went along and that would only continue. Also don't believe you can make someone a PG...they are or they aren't, imo.

[Jordy]

Originally Posted by SMC

And don't forget that, IIRC, that in year 3 with such an insane luxury tax amount, the Knicks would be prevented from using the MLE and sign-and-trades. The tax consequences are much more punitive under new CBA.

Lin screwed up if his intentions were to go back to the Knicks. It was reported that they had orally agreed on the OS of $5-5-9 mil and Lin had dinner with Knicks assistant coach Kenny Atkinson that evening. His re-negotiation was total bush league.

Good for Lin and bad for the Rockets because this will likely screw up their pursuit of Howard. But I think Lin is better off mentoring with Kidd in NY than flying solo in Houston. It may turn really bad for him.

If that's true, good riddance to him. His loss. He will never get the expoure there that he has gotten or would have continued to get in NY.

By the way, I don't know how Houston is the country's 3rd biggest market (as mentioned by another poster). I saw a chart where it's listed as the #10 market in the NBA. And the difference between #1 (New York) and #10 is HUGE.

[Brooklyn Jet]

So it looks like this most likely is the Knicks roster, plus some warm bodies, going into camp?

Felton
Kidd
Prigioni
JR Smith
Novak
Carmelo
Amare
Chandler
Camby
Kurt Thomas
Shumpurt (INJ)

A lot of experience off the bench (and age). Only one guy (Shumpert) 25 and under, if Im not mistaken.

[Jordy]

If the Knicks don't match, how does this sit with Jason Kidd?

Sounded as if one of his big motivations for coming to NY was to work with Lin.

[Brooklyn Jet]

Originally Posted by Jordy

By the way, I don't know how Houston is the country's 3rd biggest market (as mentioned by another poster). I saw a chart where it's listed as the #10 market in the NBA. And the difference between #1 (New York) and #10 is HUGE.

Yeah, I thought it was NY, LA, Chicago, Philly, Dallas, and then some combination of Boston, Atlanta, SF Bay area and DC all ahead of Houston. Houston at #10 sticks in my mind too, at least ranking by TV households.

Once you get past the top 4-5 markets, everyone else is small market.

[Brooklyn Jet]

Originally Posted by Jordy

If the Knicks don't match, how does this sit with Jason Kidd?

Sounded as if one of his big motivations for coming to NY was to work with Lin.

Maybe his DWI was the result of a Linsanity-induced bender?

[SMC]

Originally Posted by Jordy

If that's true, good riddance to him. His loss. He will never get the expoure there that he has gotten or would have continued to get in NY.

By the way, I don't know how Houston is the country's 3rd biggest market (as mentioned by another poster). I saw a chart where it's listed as the #10 market in the NBA. And the difference between #1 (New York) and #10 is HUGE.

It's 100% true, at least according to multiple reports. Atkinson was a mentor for Lin and the day Lin orally agreed to 5-5-9 he had dinner with Atkinson and told him about it.

I don't know about markets, but it's hard to believe that Houston is 3rd, unless we're talking about the Yao Ming bounce from a few years ago. Lin is no way on that level.

[brady's a catcher]

Originally Posted by Jordy

If the Knicks don't match, how does this sit with Jason Kidd?

Sounded as if one of his big motivations for coming to NY was to work with Lin.

Who gives a fk? His old azz doesn't get roster input. Retire then, fool.

[k.Rhodes25]

Originally Posted by Jordy

If the Knicks don't match, how does this sit with Jason Kidd?

Sounded as if one of his big motivations for coming to NY was to work with Lin.

Kidd will be fine with it, I think he wanted to come to NY because he saw more pieces here to compete than back in Dallas.

[Icer]

No one will remember Lin one year from now anyways. Dolan and co. are probably sweating the lost marketing $ though

[NY2FLDWC85]

Originally Posted by Icer

No one will remember Lin one year from now anyways. Dolan and co. are probably sweating the lost marketing $ though

Once again, Houston takes over the Asian market. And, if Lin continues to develop over the years into a top 5-7 PG? Believe me, we'll remember not matching Lin's offer from Houston. Instead, we're stuck with an aging (past his prime) Jason Kidd and an average to above average PG in Raymond Felton.

C: Tyson Chandler / Marcus Camby.
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire / Dan Gadzuric.
SF: Carmelo Anthony / Steve Novak.
2G: J.R Smith / Iman Shumpert / James White.
PG: Raymond Felton / Jason Kidd.

I'd love to get Grant Hill as well, due to his offensive and defensive I.Q. Hey, we're already signing way past their prime types in Camby and Kidd, might as well land Hill as well. But yeah, I don't see this as a Championship winning roster. Hopefully we'll be able to land a 2-4 seed, just can't see us competing with Miami who just landed Ray Allen...

[AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite]

Gadzuric is in Portland... Kurt Thomas is in NY...

[Johnny Drama]

the fat bastard better get on a treadmill immediately, he was beyond awful in Portland last year.

he's a chucking point guard who makes Lin look like Ray Allen as a shooter.

Will reserve judgement until its a final decision, but the little meatball better be ready, because at least Lin got to the rim, and with him gone we have no dribble penetration because Kidd doesn't come inside the three point line.

[NY2FLDWC85]

Originally Posted by AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite

Gadzuric is in Portland... Kurt Thomas is in NY...

Thanks. Both may be up there in age (Kurt Thomas looked as if he were finished last year) but maybe Kurt Thomas and Marcus Camby can provide us with strong defense/rebounding ability off the bench? Hopefully.

So, we're now on the verge of featuring Jason Kidd, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby and a possible Grant Hill? Could you imagine if this were the late 90's/early 2000's?

Not to make fun of my favorite team, but if the Knicks sign Grant Hill, would that make us the oldest team in NBA history...?

[Jordy]

Originally Posted by NY2FLDWC85

Thanks. Both may be up there in age (Kurt Thomas looked as if he were finished last year) but maybe Kurt Thomas and Marcus Camby can provide us with strong defense/rebounding ability off the bench? Hopefully.

So, we're now on the verge of featuring Jason Kidd, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby and a possible Grant Hill? Could you imagine if this were the late 90's/early 2000's?

Not to make fun of my favorite team, but if the Knicks sign Grant Hill, would that make us the oldest team in NBA history...?

All of those guys are coming off the bench. None of them are going to be featured.

[C Mart]

By Ryan Feldman
ESPN Stats & Info

Are the New York Knicks making a mistake if they let Jeremy Lin go, and proceed with Raymond Felton as their starting point guard?

From a pure basketball perspective, the numbers say yes, they are.

ISOLATION

Isolation plays are where Lin excels. He scored the third most points per play of the 91 players with at least 75 isolation plays last season, trailing only Chris Paul and James Harden. Felton ranked 68th.

Felton turned the ball over on isolation plays more than twice as often as Lin, who committed just six turnovers on his 93 isolation plays. And only Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh and Harden got to the free throw line more often than Lin on isolation plays.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Among the 41 players who were the ball-handler on at least 200 pick-and-roll plays last season, Felton scored the fourth-fewest points per play. Only John Wall, Rajon Rondo and Jamal Crawford were worse. Lin, who ranked 26th, got to the free throw line nearly three times as often as Felton on those plays.

JUMPERS OFF THE DRIBBLE

Despite shooting just 33 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season, Lin shot 48 percent on jumpers off the dribble.

Of the 102 players who attempted at least 90 jumpers off the dribble, only Stephen Curry and Steve Nash shot a higher field goal percentage than Lin. Felton ranked 85th of those 102 players, shooting just 33 percent.

PASSING

Felton and Lin both passed the ball on most of their pick-and-roll plays. And both players’ teammates had nearly the same field goal percentage and points per play on those passes. Felton passed it to the roll men more often, while Lin hit the cutters and spot-up shooters more often.

Felton passed the ball more often on isolation plays than Lin, who was better at passing to cutters, resulting in a higher field goal percentage and more points per play by his teammates on those passes. But with Lin’s high efficiency on isolation plays, it may not be such a bad thing that he passes the ball on only 17 percent of his isolation plays.

DEFENSE

So if Lin seems to be the better offensive player, for the Knicks to justify this move, they must think Felton is the better defender, right? That may not be the case.

Lin held opponents to fewer points per play and a lower field goal percentage (37.8) last season than Felton (41.6). Of the 235 players to defend at least 300 plays, Lin ranked 78th in fewest points per play, while Felton ranked 133rd.

LIN BETTER OFF WITH KNICKS

Why is Lin better off with the Knicks than the Rockets?

Isolation plays are Lin’s bread and butter. He’s among the best in the league. No team had more isolation plays last season than the Knicks. Isolation plays accounted for 17 percent of the Knicks' offense, the highest such percentage in the league.

The Rockets, meanwhile, ranked 22nd in isolation plays, which accounted for just 9 percent of their offense. The Knicks had nearly twice as many isolation plays as the Rockets.

CONCLUSION

Based on the above analysis using Synergy Sports Technology, it seems that Lin would be the better choice for the Knicks. And Lin might not thrive in Houston the way he would in New York.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...nicks-lin-sane

[Austin]

Originally Posted by Jordy

All of those guys are coming off the bench. None of them are going to be featured.

He has a point. It's going to be an old team. Other than Shumpert (coming off a torn ACL) I'm not even sure I can name another guy under 26, while I can easily name 4 over 36.

[Jordy]

Originally Posted by Austin

He has a point. It's going to be an old team. Other than Shumpert (coming off a torn ACL) I'm not even sure I can name another guy under 26, while I can easily name 4 over 36.

Absolutely. If you're talking about overall team age, yes the Knicks will be one of the older teams in the league.

He made it sound as if those 3 are starters by using the word featuring.

They're role players. That's all I'm saying.

[AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite]

Originally Posted by Austin

He has a point. It's going to be an old team. Other than Shumpert (coming off a torn ACL) I'm not even sure I can name another guy under 26, while I can easily name 4 over 36.

JR Smith is 26, if I'm not mistaken...

You're right though, old as dirt...

[Jordy]

Originally Posted by C Mart

By Ryan Feldman
ESPN Stats & Info

Are the New York Knicks making a mistake if they let Jeremy Lin go, and proceed with Raymond Felton as their starting point guard?

From a pure basketball perspective, the numbers say yes, they are.

ISOLATION

Isolation plays are where Lin excels. He scored the third most points per play of the 91 players with at least 75 isolation plays last season, trailing only Chris Paul and James Harden. Felton ranked 68th.

Felton turned the ball over on isolation plays more than twice as often as Lin, who committed just six turnovers on his 93 isolation plays. And only Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh and Harden got to the free throw line more often than Lin on isolation plays.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Among the 41 players who were the ball-handler on at least 200 pick-and-roll plays last season, Felton scored the fourth-fewest points per play. Only John Wall, Rajon Rondo and Jamal Crawford were worse. Lin, who ranked 26th, got to the free throw line nearly three times as often as Felton on those plays.

JUMPERS OFF THE DRIBBLE

Despite shooting just 33 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season, Lin shot 48 percent on jumpers off the dribble.

Of the 102 players who attempted at least 90 jumpers off the dribble, only Stephen Curry and Steve Nash shot a higher field goal percentage than Lin. Felton ranked 85th of those 102 players, shooting just 33 percent.

PASSING

Felton and Lin both passed the ball on most of their pick-and-roll plays. And both players’ teammates had nearly the same field goal percentage and points per play on those passes. Felton passed it to the roll men more often, while Lin hit the cutters and spot-up shooters more often.

Felton passed the ball more often on isolation plays than Lin, who was better at passing to cutters, resulting in a higher field goal percentage and more points per play by his teammates on those passes. But with Lin’s high efficiency on isolation plays, it may not be such a bad thing that he passes the ball on only 17 percent of his isolation plays.

DEFENSE

So if Lin seems to be the better offensive player, for the Knicks to justify this move, they must think Felton is the better defender, right? That may not be the case.

Lin held opponents to fewer points per play and a lower field goal percentage (37.8) last season than Felton (41.6). Of the 235 players to defend at least 300 plays, Lin ranked 78th in fewest points per play, while Felton ranked 133rd.

LIN BETTER OFF WITH KNICKS

Why is Lin better off with the Knicks than the Rockets?

Isolation plays are Lin’s bread and butter. He’s among the best in the league. No team had more isolation plays last season than the Knicks. Isolation plays accounted for 17 percent of the Knicks' offense, the highest such percentage in the league.

The Rockets, meanwhile, ranked 22nd in isolation plays, which accounted for just 9 percent of their offense. The Knicks had nearly twice as many isolation plays as the Rockets.

CONCLUSION

Based on the above analysis using Synergy Sports Technology, it seems that Lin would be the better choice for the Knicks. And Lin might not thrive in Houston the way he would in New York.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...nicks-lin-sane

Great analysis.

But I don't think anyone is questioning who the better player is.

The question is whether or not Lin is worth $30M plus the luxury tax implications.