JETS odds...just got back from Vegas... - Page 2 - Jets Insider.com Forums

ASG0531 · 08-02-2012, 10:38 AM

OK, you pick Haralabos, one of the most intelligent NBA thinkers on the planet. If you devote your life to something, I suppose you can come close to beating the minisicule edge of the game that's not mathematically solved.

My point was that Vegas sports odds are pretty dead-on accurate and always a moneymaker for that industry. There is no such Haralabos in the NFL betting game.

ozu · 08-02-2012, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASG0531

OK, you pick Haralabos, one of the most intelligent NBA thinkers on the planet. If you devote your life to something, I suppose you can come close to beating the mini sicule edge of the game that's not mathematically solved.

My point was that Vegas sports odds are pretty dead-on accurate and always a moneymaker for that industry.

Oh sure. I agree with you for the most part. It's a cash cow for the industry. I'm just saying that people who beat the oddmakers over a significant sample size (10k+ bets placed) do exist, but they're also way more dedicated and knowledgeable than any guy just picking lines.

e: People also make good money trading lines on places like BetFair but they're either arbitraging or essentially just trading using another exchange. They could do the same at a hedge fund.

ASG0531 · 08-02-2012, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ozu

Oh sure. I agree with you for the most part. It's a cash cow for the industry. I'm just saying that people who beat the oddmakers over a significant sample size (10k+ bets placed) do exist, but they're also way more dedicated and knowledgeable than any guy just picking lines.

I'm not convinced they are truly better than the Vegas sharps, even Haralabos. He runs insanely complicated simulations to try and beat the most difficult sport to bet on, the NBA. The NFL is very difficult to bet on. There are a lot of filthy richy gamblers in Vegas who would gladly put down huge money if they thought they had an edge in sports gambling. Phil Ivey gambles millions on craps and random golf shots because he's bored and just likes the thrill, but also loves to win. If he spotted an edge in sports betting , do you think he'd pursue it?

This all started with me saying that the Jets at 22-1 are a very fair bet right now, and people shouldn't get at all upset about it, it's right in line with the consensus expectations for the Jets this season. If you firmly believe otherwise, bet now and bet big.

ozu · 08-02-2012, 10:51 AM

Bovada has them at 28-1 so it's probably better to bet there instead.

ASG0531 · 08-02-2012, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ozu

Bovada has them at 28-1 so it's probably better to bet there instead.

I've seen 30-1 in various places. Keep searching if you believe!

Baddniss · 08-02-2012, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jet Nut

I don't particularly get why anyone would book a golf vacation in Vegas, end of July, 100+ degree weather. Too many better places to golf.

It was 82 degrees and 5% humidity in LV yesterday. Much nicer than in So Florida. By the way, there are 5 high-end public courses in LV. Much better selection there than anything near Manalapan! Where YOU gonna play? The Lantana Pitch & Putt? I dont think so.

Plus, the pu$$y by the pool at Caesar's is fantastic..

PatsFanTX · 08-02-2012, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baddniss

Plus, the pu$$y by the pool at Caesar's is fantastic..

Why the hell would anyone want to lay around a pool with a bunch of homeless cats wandering around?

Baddniss · 08-02-2012, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ozu

Haralabos Voulgaris is an extremely successful NBA bettor. His database covers every game for 10+ year, with floor matchups. His 5x5 models were way out in front of anything teams and advanced statistics sites were doing, and probably still doing, and he has the sample size to back it up.

His knowledge is, of course, much more meticulously researched than any casual bettor and he doesn't give away info (like most "winning" sharps).
http://articles.businessinsider.com/...ball-expertise

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...onaghy-scandal

This is a joke post.

There is no way anyone's last name is Vulgaris.

ozu · 08-02-2012, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

Why the hell would anyone want to lay around a pool with a bunch of homeless cats wandering around?

Clearly doesn't have the drive to be a forums superstar like you. Can't get to 50k posts laying by the pool.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baddniss

This is a joke post.

There is no way anyone's last name is Vulgaris.

Greeks have the best names.

bitonti · 08-02-2012, 12:21 PM

Remember this is win the super bowl. Not appear in the game or make the playoffs. I love the Jets but there's no rational reason to believe they will win the Super Bowl this year. That's not to say they absolutely won't. It just doesn't make sense to have them as a favorite.

It starts and ends with Sanchez. if he turns into a 60% or higher accuracy passer they have a chance. If he is the player he has been they probably top out at the playoffs. This league is all about the QB. And we can argue Tebow v Sanchez all day long but both men are worlds away from Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Manning/Big Ben level that usually wins the SB.

SlickBri481 · 08-02-2012, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti

Remember this is win the super bowl. Not appear in the game or make the playoffs. I love the Jets but there's no rational reason to believe they will win the Super Bowl this year. That's not to say they absolutely won't. It just doesn't make sense to have them as a favorite.

It starts and ends with Sanchez. if he turns into a 60% or higher accuracy passer they have a chance. If he is the player he has been they probably top out at the playoffs. This league is all about the QB. And we can argue Tebow v Sanchez all day long but both men are worlds away from Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Manning/Big Ben level that usually wins the SB.

The last "average" QB to win the SB was Eli in 2007, he had a pedestrian regular season, then played better in the playoffs but was also boosted by a D that shut down some of the top offenses in the league during their run.

The last 4 teams to win the SB, their QBs put up great seasons. And their opponents in the SB had QBs who put up bigtime seasons too.

EM31 · 08-02-2012, 12:41 PM

The margins for the bookmaker is HUGE and most people bet in an undisciplined and under informed fashion but at the end of the day the sports bettor is not expected to defy the laws of physics and probability as he is with Slots, Craps, Roulette or any other table game. The sports bettor needs to be 5% better than the other group of sports bettors who are taking the opposite side of of the bet.

If you bet sports you do not need the dice to come up with a seven more frequently than one time out of six. There are some bettors, not many, but some bettors who who have developed a system which over time allows them to get a magical 55% rate of return over time.

Not all bookies are offering the same spreads on the same games at the same instant although it is close. Not all bookies are charging the same vig. I have been going to Las Vegas for years now to play poker and one of the professional grinders who I have played with several times and who had no reason to lie to me told me that he makes his living of Poker and College football during the winter and Poker during the summer. I do not know what his "system" is but he said that he makes very few bets.

There are people who make money consistently over time but those people are very rare. They are not imaginary.

southparkcpa · 08-02-2012, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baddniss

Well you Jets "homers" are gonna get upset over this one...

I just got back tonite from a little golf vacation in Vegas, and this afternoon I stopped off in the MGM Sports Book to check out the updated pre-season odds on our Favorite Team's chances for The Super Bowl.

Vegas has us at 22 to 1 !!!!That is horrible. They think we suck. They have looked at our roster & said, "You guys blow!". Thats what 22 to 1 means.

Well...Vegas hasn't lost a JETS SB bet in 43 years...so what's that tell us?

SlickBri481 · 08-02-2012, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by southparkcpa

Well...Vegas hasn't lost a JETS SB bet in 43 years...so what's that tell us?

Exactly, think of all the money Vegas has made the last 43 years from Jets "SB winner" or "SB participant" prop bets that failed. Probably a veritable goldmine.

10PennyToColes87 · 08-02-2012, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

Why the hell would anyone want to lay around a pool with a bunch of homeless cats wandering around?

Even your (attempt at) humor screams "senile."

TokyoJetsFan · 08-02-2012, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baddniss

Well you Jets "homers" are gonna get upset over this one...

I just got back tonite from a little golf vacation in Vegas, and this afternoon I stopped off in the MGM Sports Book to check out the updated pre-season odds on our Favorite Team's chances for The Super Bowl.

Vegas has us at 22 to 1 !!!!
That is horrible. They think we suck. They have looked at our roster & said, "You guys blow!". Thats what 22 to 1 means.

I guess I better take off those rose colored glasses, thinking that we were a good shot at Wild Card again...I just found their opinion of us very dis-heartening...

PS. Golf at Rio Secca Golf Club & Cascatta Golf was fantastic

PSS...The JI/Yahoo Pools are now open for sign up. See stickied thread...

Dick. I was in Vegas as well. Let me know when you are going again and I'll buy you a beer.

bitonti · 08-02-2012, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EM31

I have been going to Las Vegas for years now to play poker and one of the professional grinders who I have played with several times and who had no reason to lie to me told me that he makes his living of Poker and College football during the winter and Poker during the summer. I do not know what his "system" is but he said that he makes very few bets.

I believe him and there are advantages to betting on colleges. the lines are not as tightly set as NFL lines. I am not talking about LSU vs Alabama, those lines are serious. But there are often ranked vs unranked situations where Boise State at home really will cover a 45 point spread against New Mexico.

ASG0531 · 08-02-2012, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EM31

The margins for the bookmaker is HUGE and most people bet in an undisciplined and under informed fashion but at the end of the day the sports bettor is not expected to defy the laws of physics and probability as he is with Slots, Craps, Roulette or any other table game. The sports bettor needs to be 5% better than the other group of sports bettors who are taking the opposite side of of the bet.

If you bet sports you do not need the dice to come up with a seven more frequently than one time out of six. There are some bettors, not many, but some bettors who who have developed a system which over time allows them to get a magical 55% rate of return over time.

Not all bookies are offering the same spreads on the same games at the same instant although it is close. Not all bookies are charging the same vig. I have been going to Las Vegas for years now to play poker and one of the professional grinders who I have played with several times and who had no reason to lie to me told me that he makes his living of Poker and College football during the winter and Poker during the summer. I do not know what his "system" is but he said that he makes very few bets.

There are people who make money consistently over time but those people are very rare. They are not imaginary.

His system is winning in poker to make up for all of his sports betting losses.

ASG0531 · 08-02-2012, 01:23 PM

Professional sports bettors who live off of their income solely from betting on sports do not exist. Of course they are long-term winners in their minds.. but they usually have another occupation. In this case, poker, which actually has a long-term positive income value.

Baddniss · 08-02-2012, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TokyoJetsFan

. I was in Vegas as well. Let me know when you are going again and I'll buy you a beer.

its "Bob". Dont confuse me with my buddy Dickie Kotite who posts here a lot.

08-02-2012, 10:38 AM	#21
ASG0531 Veteran Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,714	OK, you pick Haralabos, one of the most intelligent NBA thinkers on the planet. If you devote your life to something, I suppose you can come close to beating the minisicule edge of the game that's not mathematically solved. My point was that Vegas sports odds are pretty dead-on accurate and always a moneymaker for that industry. There is no such Haralabos in the NFL betting game. Last edited by ASG0531; 08-02-2012 at 10:41 AM.

08-02-2012, 01:23 PM	#39
ASG0531 Veteran Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,714	Professional sports bettors who live off of their income solely from betting on sports do not exist. Of course they are long-term winners in their minds.. but they usually have another occupation. In this case, poker, which actually has a long-term positive income value. Last edited by ASG0531; 08-02-2012 at 01:25 PM.

08-02-2012, 10:51 AM	#24
ozu in Section 135, Row 28. All League Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Hoboken Posts: 3,922	Bovada has them at 28-1 so it's probably better to bet there instead.

08-02-2012, 12:21 PM	#30
bitonti searching Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Philly Posts: 38,786	Remember this is win the super bowl. Not appear in the game or make the playoffs. I love the Jets but there's no rational reason to believe they will win the Super Bowl this year. That's not to say they absolutely won't. It just doesn't make sense to have them as a favorite. It starts and ends with Sanchez. if he turns into a 60% or higher accuracy passer they have a chance. If he is the player he has been they probably top out at the playoffs. This league is all about the QB. And we can argue Tebow v Sanchez all day long but both men are worlds away from Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Manning/Big Ben level that usually wins the SB.

08-02-2012, 12:41 PM	#32
EM31 All Pro Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Oceanside, Long Island Posts: 9,148	The margins for the bookmaker is HUGE and most people bet in an undisciplined and under informed fashion but at the end of the day the sports bettor is not expected to defy the laws of physics and probability as he is with Slots, Craps, Roulette or any other table game. The sports bettor needs to be 5% better than the other group of sports bettors who are taking the opposite side of of the bet. If you bet sports you do not need the dice to come up with a seven more frequently than one time out of six. There are some bettors, not many, but some bettors who who have developed a system which over time allows them to get a magical 55% rate of return over time. Not all bookies are offering the same spreads on the same games at the same instant although it is close. Not all bookies are charging the same vig. I have been going to Las Vegas for years now to play poker and one of the professional grinders who I have played with several times and who had no reason to lie to me told me that he makes his living of Poker and College football during the winter and Poker during the summer. I do not know what his "system" is but he said that he makes very few bets. There are people who make money consistently over time but those people are very rare. They are not imaginary.