Where do we go after this year? I am panicking

[JetSouth]

I want to preface this by saying yes I am putting the cart before the horse. The season hasn't even started yet and everything could be fine. But so far from what I've seen on the field and in the bookkeeping, this season is our last chance to make some noise. It seems like the Ryan/Tannenbaum era is crumbling before our very eyes and I am none too pleased. Somebody please tell me where the hope is?

2013 NFL Cap estimate $120,900,000
Jets rollover money $4.330,000 mil (took off 1.6 for 52nd+53rd men and practice squad)
2013 Jets cap $125,230,000

After this year we have some key free agents

None of these players are superstars, but these are all 2012 key contributors for better or worse. This is A LOT of run defense that will be hitting the open market.

Brandon Moore
Dustin Keller
Mike DeVito
Shonn Greene
Matt Slauson
Aaron Maybin
Laron Landry
Yeremiah Bell
Calvin Pace
Bart Scott
Bryan Thomas
Eric Smith
Wayne Hunter

2013 salaries

Next year we have $103,823,993 tied up in 30 players (Only a handful of the bottom of the list are truly safe, but for the sake of the exercise let's roll with it)
1. David Harris- 13,000,000
2. Sanchez- 12,853,125
3. Holmes 12,500,000
4. Cromartie 10,750,000
5. Brick 10,716,666
6. Mangold 9,117,100
7. Revis 9,000,000
8. Pouha 6,166,666
9. Tebow 2,586,875
10. Wilson 2,010,400
11. Coples 2,000,635
12. Wilkerson 1,875,000
13. Hill 1,070,988
14. McKnight 708,370
15. Ellis 707,500
16. Demario Davis 664,490
17. Powell 655,125
18. Conner 632,870
19. Lankster 630,000
20. Kerley 601,062
21. McIntyre 568,120
22. Josh Bush 506,055
23. T Ganaway 499,670
24. Robert Griffin 499,670
25. Antonio Allen 491,474
26. Jordan White 491,474
27. Caleb Schlauderaff 555,000
28. Josh Baker 555,000
29. Vlad 839,370
30. McElroy 571,288

Dead Money

Dead money total is $4,527,336

1. Pace 3,013,335
2. Scott 1,500,000
3. Donovan Robinson 4,667
4. GJ Kinne 4,667
5. Brian Linthicum 4,667

2013 rookie salaries
Let's just assume we pick around where we did in the 2012 draft and use seven players (one per round). The total will be $6,462,844 for this exercise. I also counted the 2013 practice squad in the final figure.

Specialists

Let's just go with K/P/LS at a 500k average for $1,500,000

Spots 52 and 53
We know at least two UDFAs will make next year's team so let's add the final two spots at the minimum of 400k a piece for a $800,000 total.

In summation, that is 42 players at a grand total of $117,114,173 and leaves us with $8,115,827 left to spend for ten players. That's an average of $811,000 to replace our ten starters who will be free agents. Moore is a Pro Bowl caliber guard, Slauson is serviceable, Pace, Scott, Devito all help the run defense tremendously.

We would have our seven draft picks plus free agency to address

Two starting offensive guards
One right tackle
Two tight ends
Two running backs
Swing tackle
DL depth
LB depth
Two outside linebackers
Two safeties

This doesn't even include finding a punter or satisfying Revis.


Sure there are ways to clear cap space.

1. Cut Eric Smith before the 2012 season or make him cut his salary in half to save on the rollover money. If we cut him we would be vulnerable at safety with an older player and an injury risk and it would also hurt our special teams.
2. Cut Pouha after 2012 and save $3,833,332.
3. Borrow money from future salary caps (Up to four million)
4. Restructure current players but that just enables this endless cycle of mediocrity.

[JB1089]

Sanchez
Holmes
Brick
and even Cromartie


aren't giving an adequate return on the money we're paying them. Harris isn't really worth $13M either, but I'm considering that payment for prior service.

[Dunnie]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Sanchez
Holmes
Brick
and even Cromartie


aren't giving an adequate return on the money we're paying them. Harris isn't really worth $13M either, but I'm considering that payment for prior service.

I agree with Sanchez and Holmes ... The other two are debatable. The big question .... Is Sanchez worth 5x Tebow ?? Lol.

[JetSouth]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Sanchez
Holmes
Brick
and even Cromartie


aren't giving an adequate return on the money we're paying them. Harris isn't really worth $13M either, but I'm considering that payment for prior service.

They certainly aren't worth it. But we can't do anything about them next year unless they're willing to restructure, and even then it just pushes money back.

[Untouchable]

We may be in full fledged rebuilding mode if this season goes to sh*t.

I don't want to hear about the back to back AFC Championship games. That was two years ago and two years is an eternity in this league. How many years have teams like Seattle and Oakland flopped around in the basement of the NFL after Superbowl appearances?

If you don't have an elite QB in the prime of his career, then windows tend to close fast in this league.

[JetsNeedNewton]

Even if we call it a rebuild year, my first thought getting home Saturday night, we don't have the money to do anything. Is there a "suck for Luck" competition in the next draft worth losing every game for ? 8\8, 0\16... is there a difference?

[John_0515]

Originally Posted by Untouchable

We may be in full fledged rebuilding mode if this season goes to sh*t.

I don't want to hear about the back to back AFC Championship games. That was two years ago and two years is an eternity in this league. How many years have teams like Seattle and Oakland flopped around in the basement of the NFL after Superbowl appearances?

If you don't have an elite QB in the prime of his career, then windows tend to close fast in this league.

+1

[patman]

The jets will have a lot of soul searching to do if they finish 8-8 or even 9-7 and finish behind the Bills. The key is Sanchez, will he show enough to prove that with a better offense around him, that the jets can be a middle of the pack offense.

We know Rex can coach talent, but can he coach up lesser players when the safeties, LBs and Devito, move on.

[SAR I]

It ended in Pittsburgh and last session was the "reload for one last shot" which bombed. The mistake was keeping Rex Ryan which just delays the rebuild another year.

It's already over.

SAR I

[barkus]

Im not feeling very optimistic about this season. If they fall apart, time to start over. Would consider getting polian to run the operation, would strongly consider trading Revis, he is a luxury and this team has too many holes.

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by Untouchable

We may be in full fledged rebuilding mode if this season goes to sh*t.

I don't want to hear about the back to back AFC Championship games. That was two years ago and two years is an eternity in this league. How many years have teams like Seattle and Oakland flopped around in the basement of the NFL after Superbowl appearances?

If you don't have an elite QB in the prime of his career, then windows tend to close fast in this league.

Originally Posted by John_0515

+1

You sound like me nine months ago. I used to get flamed for talking like this, but it is the truth. Especially, the last sentence.

2009 and 2010 are eons ago. IMO they were irrelevant last season, forget about this season. In the NFL one year is an eternity. Things change quickly. No team is the same two years in a row. Just look at the Vikings. They were in the NFCCG in 2009 and last year they were at the top of the draft.

[124]

Scott and Pace's contracts don't expire after this season so I'm assuming that you're assuming they'll just be released.

Santonio Holmes isn't going anywhere until after 2013. His entire contract is guaranteed for 2012 and most of it is guaranteed for 2013.

Could see them asking both Ferguson and Cromartie to take a pay cut or to walk as well as the possible releases of Sione Pouha and Mark Sanchez. Harris will probably be asked to restructure as well.

[AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite]

Un****ingreal... /facepalm

[JamesR]

Originally Posted by JetSouth

Brandon Moore
Dustin Keller
Mike DeVito
Shonn Greene
Matt Slauson
Aaron Maybin
Laron Landry
Yeremiah Bell
Calvin Pace
Bart Scott
Bryan Thomas
Eric Smith
Wayne Hunter

While there are a lot of current starters here, I think a lot of them will not be resigned ... a lot will depend on how they perform this season, and how injuries / age affect them.

Those that we may already have a replacement on the roster for are :
Moore --> Vlad (IF he shows something this year - if not, he's gone); Moore has had injury concerns and his age is getting up there
Landry / Bell --> Allen; I can see us keeping one of the two and bringing Allen more into the mix if he pans out. Not sure about Bush; doubt that two starters will both get replaced in one year, but Bush will be depth at least
Scott --> Davis; I'd be surprised if Bart is still starting by year end

Green / Keller / DeVito - unless Green has a big year, I can see him being given a low offer to stay, otherwise he's gone and we draft a replacement. Ditto with Keller. I think DeVito may stick around as a backup on a team-friendly salary, I don't think free agency would earn him a big increase elsewhere

Smith / Hunter - hopefully neither will be retained!

Still leaves us with glaring issues at OLB; G and RT could be issues (unless we somehow solve our RT issue this year). So OL and OLB will be our key FA / draft holes next year. (But I think we knew that anyway).

[EM31]

Originally Posted by SAR I

It ended in Pittsburgh and last session was the "reload for one last shot" which bombed. The mistake was keeping Rex Ryan which just delays the rebuild another year.

It's already over.

SAR I

While I do not share the totality of your sunny analysis, the continuum of likely outcomes does include that one.

Some positives.

The reloading of the defense is already underway and if Ellis and Coples in particular pan out then we could be in good shape there.

QB, OL, RB, WR and GM are major, major problems and until we solve the last one we will never have a plan to solve the others.

The tea boy bean counter is over matched and this much should have been obvious years ago.

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Sanchez
Holmes
Brick
and even Cromartie


aren't giving an adequate return on the money we're paying them. Harris isn't really worth $13M either, but I'm considering that payment for prior service.

I assume we are talking 2013.

I LOVE Harris. But when we have an offense that is in shambles and no cap room that means tough decisions will have to be made. I am not even sure if he is tradeable with his contract and what the cap hit would be. Might be more expensive to trade him. I think there is a 95% chance that he gets restructured but that is only delaying the problem for another year or two.

And I know this is sacrilegious, but if or when we extend Revis, the offense isn't going to get better unless we hit HRs in the draft. A lot of money tied up there.

I just don't see how the offense will get any better unless we take some hits on defense and this coach is not going to let that happen.

[patman]

Originally Posted by JamesR

While there are a lot of current starters here, I think a lot of them will not be resigned ... a lot will depend on how they perform this season, and how injuries / age affect them.

Those that we may already have a replacement on the roster for are :
Moore --> Vlad (IF he shows something this year - if not, he's gone); Moore has had injury concerns and his age is getting up there
Landry / Bell --> Allen; I can see us keeping one of the two and bringing Allen more into the mix if he pans out. Not sure about Bush; doubt that two starters will both get replaced in one year, but Bush will be depth at least
Scott --> Davis; I'd be surprised if Bart is still starting by year end

Green / Keller / DeVito - unless Green has a big year, I can see him being given a low offer to stay, otherwise he's gone and we draft a replacement. Ditto with Keller. I think DeVito may stick around as a backup on a team-friendly salary, I don't think free agency would earn him a big increase elsewhere

Smith / Hunter - hopefully neither will be retained!

Still leaves us with glaring issues at OLB; G and RT could be issues (unless we somehow solve our RT issue this year). So OL and OLB will be our key FA / draft holes next year. (But I think we knew that anyway).

If you don't think Devito will get 3mill a year, you are sadly mistaken. He is a solid 35 snaps a game at DT/RDE

Keller just repeating the year he had last year will be 4 and 20 mill

What has Vlad ever shown in the last two years or in this camp that make you think he can play?

If Landry gets thru the year, he will want big money 5+ per year, the jets got him this year for 3.75, but if he is healthy he will get much more next, Bell is the more likely re-sign.

[124]

Originally Posted by patman

If you don't think Devito will get 3mill a year, you are sadly mistaken. He is a solid 35 snaps a game at DT/RDE

Keller just repeating the year he had last year will be 4 and 20 mill

What has Vlad ever shown in the last two years or in this camp that make you think he can play?

If Landry gets thru the year, he will want big money 5+ per year, the jets got him this year for 3.75, but if he is healthy he will get much more next, Bell is the more likely re-sign.

DeVito is more of a 34E so I'd have to say he's gone, especially with the improving play (so far) of Kenrick Ellis, who can play 34N or 43T.

If Sparano is kept, Keller doesn't fit the offensive philosophy so I could see them letting him walk fairly easily.

You're spot on with Landry and Bell. If Landry doesn't stay healthy you probably won't see him brought back and if he does he'll wind up with a Michael Griffin esq deal of 5 years, $30-35M. Re-sign Bell and play Allen.

[patman]

Originally Posted by 124

DeVito is more of a 34E so I'd have to say he's gone, especially with the improving play (so far) of Kenrick Ellis, who can play 34N or 43T.

If Sparano is kept, Keller doesn't fit the offensive philosophy so I could see them letting him walk fairly easily.

You're spot on with Landry and Bell. If Landry doesn't stay healthy you probably won't see him brought back and if he does he'll wind up with a Michael Griffin esq deal of 5 years, $30-35M. Re-sign Bell and play Allen.

I don't mean to throw salt, but i would love the pats to pick up Devito. Guys that work like that are always needed.

[BRONX JET]

Can we save the crying for January? The defense is going to be good, so we will be in games. If they can figure out how to solve this RT issue we will have a chance in what I think will be a down year in the AFc