The Offense is Better At Passing Than Running

[srobjets]

Sanchez will not go deep this season because......
Receivers can't get separation, O line can't block, TE's can't block or get open. The coaches want him to check down to avoid the int's, but Sanchez has figured a way to screw that up too. Long a$$ season ahead.

[John_0515]

Originally Posted by srobjets

Sanchez will not go deep this season because......
Receivers can't get separation, O line can't block, TE's can't block or get open. The coaches want him to check down to avoid the int's, but Sanchez has figured a way to screw that up too. Long a$$ season ahead.

Don't forget, lack of a running game! And crappy play calling? Tebow running goal lime offense? Defense being tired? Wrong flavor Gatorade? Playing in the shadow of the NYG? Etc.....

[ChrisChrusher#40]

Originally Posted by JB1089

This is an indisputable fact and the inability of the coaching staff to recognize it is going to kill us.

I see people talking about how we ran the ball well today. WHAT?

I don't think people understand how running the football works in the NFL. 3 and 4 yard runs =/= success. EVERY team is going to be stopped behind the LOS on a number of runs in every game. The only way for a running game to balance this out is by being able to break 10+ yard runs on a semi-regular basis. If you want to be run heavy, you need to break even more of those long than the average team. But we're the worst team in the league at that.

The year that Chris Johnson ran for 2,000 yards? He led the league in runs for no gain or negative yards.



11 carries for 36 yards
6 carries for 21 yards
3 carries for 3 yards
2 carries for 0 yards

Those are the numbers for our running backs. A long run of 8 yards.

The INT that Sanchez threw was terrible, but that was toward the end of the 2nd quarter and he was 9/10 before that. He was doing exactly what Rex and the coaching staff have wanted from him before that: taking the easy completion and coming away with positive yards, and we had zero points.

Even if we execute our preferred philosophy to perfection, we're not going to score points this year because we want to GROUND AND POUND with a terrible running game.

Is our plan really to win games 10-7?




The only way we're going to score is through the air. And those points are going to come along with turnovers and a ton of sacks. Still, that's preferable to the slow death that we'll be doomed to if we proceed with the current plan. You can win 8-9 games with a middling, turnover prone passing game and a great defense. Relying on a bad running game and a great defense is going to get you 3 or 4 wins because a "great" defense in 2012 is a defense that allows less than 20 points per game. And you're not going to score 20 by leaning on a bad running game.

Pound and ground is getting outscored in today's pass-happy NFL. But why not strive for balance to keep the D unbalanced? The wildcat will provide some flexibity. This offense appears as if it will be unconventional, and we need that considering that we have a hole at OL, and a QB, RBs and WRs with a lot to prove.

Hopefully Sporano will dial-up some well-timed "chunk" plays... unlike Shotty. Schotty's offense consisted of:

1. Running when the pass was going well and the run wasn't.
2. Passing when the run was going well and the passing game wasn't.
3. When the regular passing wasn't working, kept doing it without throwing in a gimmick play to keep the D off balance.
4. When regular runs weren't working, kept doing them without throwing in a gimmick play to keep the D off balance.
5. Running gimmick plays when the conventional offense was working and NOT running gimmick plays when conventional wasn't working and we needed a spark.
6. T h e p l a y c a l l s w e r e s o o o o o o s l o w . . . . . a n d t o n s o f a d j u s t me n t s a t t h e l i n e t h a t d i d n ' t w o r k . . . . .
7. Endless 5-7 yard hooks or slants when we needed 8-15. And every wideout did them.

Now, my fear is that Sparano will ground and pound TOO much. That we'll have too many 1-3 yard runs and then the gangbusters pass rush knocking Sanchez into tomorrow. There is a time and a place to run and pass, and Schotty rarely picked the right call at the right time and rarely made 2nd half adjustments that would help pick up the scoring. If the OL works, we'll see improved running game AND passing game. If we dn't, then the D and special teams will have to do a lot to get us in the playoffs. Too much to overcome, probably. I've never seen a season that could go either way SO sharply as this one.

[JB1089]

Let me clarify and say that I don't want us throwing the ball 650 times next year like the Saints and Lions do. Sanchez has not shown himself to be good enough to operate that kind of offense.

I'd like to see us at 55:45 (pass:run).

If we had a good running game, I'd feel differently. But we haven't had sustained success on the ground since the first half of the 2010 season, before Tomlinson slowed down.

We're not going to score many points this year, but we'll get more points out of a bad passing game than we would out of a bad running game. There is nothing uglier in football than a running offense that can't run the ball.

[Sports]

Originally Posted by Astoria

I've seen you post a few times about this JB, you're absolutely correct.

In a way, it's just like Mangini trying to force the 3-4 even though we had 4-3 personnel.

We are now trying to be a running team with:

-Average run blocking linemen
-JAG talent at RB
-No HINT of a deep pass possibility to keep the defense from stacking the box

Why not plan a balanced traditional offense for this vanilla group of offensive talent, instead of a specialty offense that capitalizes on exactly none of our strengths?

+1

[escamoter2]

Originally Posted by John_0515

Don't forget, lack of a running game! And crappy play calling? Tebow running goal lime offense? Defense being tired? Wrong flavor Gatorade? Playing in the shadow of the NYG? Etc.....

All comments made by John_0515 are given as opinion, which may or may not be derived from facts, and not made to personally attack anyone on JI. All rights reserved.®

[auctionking]

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

That is part of the point. Even the best RBs don't do it. So how can we expect our RBs to do it and our offense to put up points with our RBs.

We are ass backwards on offense.

I am as hard on Sanchez as anybody. But even I feel like he has been set up to fail. It is not fair. The talent around him has gotten worse every year. And every QB deserves a chance to throw the ball.

I don't see where Sparano's offense is going to be better than Schotty's. The philosophy may be different but the results will be the same. The idea is to score points and we can't do that.

I know it is the pre season but IMO this is a microcosm of things to come. I just don't see where the improvement is going to come from. Greene is not a dynamic RB. Our OL is poor in pass protection at the edges. And our QB is inaccurate. Those are talent issues, not coaching issues. Our talent is limited therefore our offense is limited. We have Holmes but he is going to be doubled every play.

We lack talent and Sparano showed nothing in Miami. Watching all these other 2nd round wr draft picks tonight I am also nervous we might have a Gholston Wr in Hill

[Ray Ray19]

Originally Posted by JB1089

I'm saying that we need to throw the ball more and change our approach to throwing the ball. I don't like the "just take the easy completion" philosophy that this coaching staff wants to go forward with.

They talk about running attempts + completions. The 1st team offense did well by those standards. We didn't score points because that's a flawed approach to offense.

Um, you do realize checkdowns are a big part of the game, even for the high-powered passing teams?

It will be especially important as they run plays where the game call is attacking down field.

[Dunnie]

Originally Posted by Ray Ray19

Um, you do realize checkdowns are a big part of the game, even for the high-powered passing teams?

It will be especially important as they run plays where the game call is attacking down field.

You do realize that throwing beyond the yardage required for a first down, when its 3rd and long ,is a basic trait found in any decent QB ... Right?

[Beerfish]

Originally Posted by John_0515

You're just full of piss and vinegar today.

Do you disagree with anything I said in that post?

[NY's stepchild]

Originally Posted by JB1089

This is an indisputable fact and the inability of the coaching staff to recognize it is going to kill us.

I see people talking about how we ran the ball well today. WHAT?

I don't think people understand how running the football works in the NFL. 3 and 4 yard runs =/= success. EVERY team is going to be stopped behind the LOS on a number of runs in every game. The only way for a running game to balance this out is by being able to break 10+ yard runs on a semi-regular basis. If you want to be run heavy, you need to break even more of those long than the average team. But we're the worst team in the league at that.

The year that Chris Johnson ran for 2,000 yards? He led the league in runs for no gain or negative yards.



11 carries for 36 yards
6 carries for 21 yards
3 carries for 3 yards
2 carries for 0 yards

Those are the numbers for our running backs. A long run of 8 yards.

The INT that Sanchez threw was terrible, but that was toward the end of the 2nd quarter and he was 9/10 before that. He was doing exactly what Rex and the coaching staff have wanted from him before that: taking the easy completion and coming away with positive yards, and we had zero points.

Even if we execute our preferred philosophy to perfection, we're not going to score points this year because we want to GROUND AND POUND with a terrible running game.

Is our plan really to win games 10-7?




The only way we're going to score is through the air. And those points are going to come along with turnovers and a ton of sacks. Still, that's preferable to the slow death that we'll be doomed to if we proceed with the current plan. You can win 8-9 games with a middling, turnover prone passing game and a great defense. Relying on a bad running game and a great defense is going to get you 3 or 4 wins because a "great" defense in 2012 is a defense that allows less than 20 points per game. And you're not going to score 20 by leaning on a bad running game.

The exact opposite is true. If you can consistently run 4 yards you can win with that. That's Curtis Martin right there. You can get 3 yards, 5 yards, 4 yards, but you cannot get stuffed. A run of 8 yards then a loss of 2 leaves you 3rd and 6. If you run 10 yards then 12 yards, then 6 yards, -2 yards, then you're at 3rd and 8. You're much better off with a consistent 4 yards. Then you wear down a defense and leave yourself with consistently manageable 3rd downs. Breaking long runs means nothing, unless you score on them. That's why our attacking defense works. You can give up a few big plays, but if you just once in a drive get a negative play the chances of a team scoring are very slim.

[JB1089]

Originally Posted by NY's stepchild

The exact opposite is true. If you can consistently run 4 yards you can win with that. That's Curtis Martin right there. You can get 3 yards, 5 yards, 4 yards, but you cannot get stuffed. A run of 8 yards then a loss of 2 leaves you 3rd and 6. If you run 10 yards then 12 yards, then 6 yards, -2 yards, then you're at 3rd and 8. You're much better off with a consistent 4 yards. Then you wear down a defense and leave yourself with consistently manageable 3rd downs. Breaking long runs means nothing, unless you score on them. That's why our attacking defense works. You can give up a few big plays, but if you just once in a drive get a negative play the chances of a team scoring are very slim.

But you're going to get stuffed, it's inevitable.

The Saints were the best team in the league last year at avoiding runs for zero or negative yards. They were only stuffed on 16% of their runs.

The Eagles were the worst team in the league at avoiding runs for zero or negative yards. They were were stuffed on 25% of their runs.

So you're going to get stuffed somewhere between 1 out of every 4 or 6 runs. Stuffed runs happen, and if you can't make up for them with longer runs...well, this leads into my next point.

More importantly, if you're not breaking long runs (10+ yards) then you are going to have to go on extended drives to score TDs. Average starting field position puts you a little past your own 28 yard line. That's 72 yards from the endzone. The Saints led the league in total number of 3rd down conversions last year, with a little over 7 per game. The league average was a little over 5 per game. The Bills were last with 4 per game. 16 teams (half the league) averaged between 5.5 and 4.5.

To score multiple TDs per game, you need to pickup 1st downs and 1st and 2nd down, and avoid finding yourself in 3rd down on a regular basis. The league average on 3rd down is a tick below 40%, and the Saints were the only team above 50%. 3rd downs are inevitable, but the more of them you face on a given drive, the less likely the drive is to result in a TD.

[augustiniak]

Originally Posted by JB1089

But you're going to get stuffed, it's inevitable.

The Saints were the best team in the league last year at avoiding runs for zero or negative yards. They were only stuffed on 16% of their runs.

The Eagles were the worst team in the league at avoiding runs for zero or negative yards. They were were stuffed on 25% of their runs.

So you're going to get stuffed somewhere between 1 out of every 4 or 6 runs. Stuffed runs happen, and if you can't make up for them with longer runs...well, this leads into my next point.

More importantly, if you're not breaking long runs (10+ yards) then you are going to have to go on extended drives to score TDs. Average starting field position puts you a little past your own 28 yard line. That's 72 yards from the endzone. The Saints led the league in total number of 3rd down conversions last year, with a little over 7 per game. The league average was a little over 5 per game. The Bills were last with 4 per game. 16 teams (half the league) averaged between 5.5 and 4.5.

To score multiple TDs per game, you need to pickup 1st downs and 1st and 2nd down, and avoid finding yourself in 3rd down on a regular basis. The league average on 3rd down is a tick below 40%, and the Saints were the only team above 50%. 3rd downs are inevitable, but the more of them you face on a given drive, the less likely the drive is to result in a TD.

the way the rules have been changed, you need a certain number of big plays per game. i'm amazed the jets won 8 games last year with no deep threat and no real speed at rb or wr. that's not typical. stephen hill is one possible answer. mcknight has the most speed out of the backfield and i hope they use him as a slot guy sometimes along with kerley. but i do agree, the more 3rd downs you have the less likely you are to score. i read that sparano is focusing on 1st and 2nd downs, i like that. i always had the impression that schotty saved his stuff for 3rd downs, which is not how to succeed. and i do believe the jets are planning to attack downfield with holmes, hill and keller, using kerley and mcknight for the quicker, underneath stuff.

[sec.101row23]

Originally Posted by augustiniak

the way the rules have been changed, you need a certain number of big plays per game. i'm amazed the jets won 8 games last year with no deep threat and no real speed at rb or wr. that's not typical. stephen hill is one possible answer. mcknight has the most speed out of the backfield and i hope they use him as a slot guy sometimes along with kerley. but i do agree, the more 3rd downs you have the less likely you are to score. i read that sparano is focusing on 1st and 2nd downs, i like that. i always had the impression that schotty saved his stuff for 3rd downs, which is not how to succeed. and i do believe the jets are planning to attack downfield with holmes, hill and keller, using kerley and mcknight for the quicker, underneath stuff.

Agree 100%. There are some coaches who call deep plays if for no other reason to try to draw a penalty. If you NEVER attempt one you not only will NEVER complete one, but you also eliminate the possibility of PI call. Thats why I was amazed last year that a long pass was never even attempted. The way these refs hand out PI and illegal contact penalties, you are doing your offense a huge dis-service by not taking any shots down field.

[augustiniak]

Originally Posted by sec.101row23

Agree 100%. There are some coaches who call deep plays if for no other reason to try to draw a penalty. If you NEVER attempt one you not only will NEVER complete one, but you also eliminate the possibility of PI call. Thats why I was amazed last year that a long pass was never even attempted. The way these refs hand out PI and illegal contact penalties, you are doing your offense a huge dis-service by not taking any shots down field.

agree completely and schotty never understood this. stephen hill could be the answer, but still he's a rookie and sanchez isn't the best qb. the problems with this offense as last year, will be when they can't ram it for good chunks of yards on first and/or 2nd down and are facing a lot of 3rd and 5+ yards where tebow can't be relied upon to throw if necessary. that means a good amount of passes on first and/or 2nd downs to keep defenses guessing and honest, with some bombs sprinkled in. you don't need that many long passes, just enough to get those safeties from cheating in the box.

[JB1089]

Bump


Uh, yeah......what I said before. We suck at running the ball.

[DDNYjets]

Greene is painfully slow to watch.

Whenever we pull lineman our RBs get run down from behind by the guys we don't block.

[Mikey Z 6]

that fast start was nice, to see... but then what happen? schotty must of called up sparano and said.... your doing it wrong