End for Romney? New Poll Gives Obama 10% Lead in Ohio, 9% in Florida

[Jetdawgg]

Greg Mitchell on September 26, 2012 - 7:43 AM ET
Wednesday update: New NYT/Quinnipiac poll finds Obama widening lead in two key states, Ohio and Florida, plus the peripherals looks good. If he wins those two it's a wrap. And the lead is now massive: 10% in Ohio and 9% in Florida. So is the enthusiasm gap, which once favored Romney. In Ohio, women now favor the president by 25%, and folks under 35 by 35%.

New Bloomberg poll gives Obama clear 6% lead. GOPers now reduced to claiming that the all of the polls (except Rasmussen, which finds race even) are wrong--their samples biased toward Democrats. And Ross Douthat of NYT with blog post in which he wishes, dreams, that we could just have an up or down vote on Obama and get him out of office--without the messiness of people having to consider Romney as an alternative.

Go here for a rundown of the past week of polling, day-by-day

Earlier:

Just when the Barack Obama bounce coming out of the Democratic National Convention seemed to be evaporating, our old friend David Corn released the now-infamous video showing opponent Mitt Romney trashing “the 47 percent.” Polls since then, including yesterday’s startling Gallup report—Obama’s favorable/unfavorable index widened a shocking 7 percent in one day to 51/43—have nearly all shown very bad trends for the Republican plutocrat.

And it’s having a strong effect in other races. Many Democratic candidates for the House and Senate are showing better poll positions and more freely backing the president now. In a key TV debate with Senator Scott Brown this week, Elizabeth Warren turned it into a virtual referendum on the president in a state still mad at Mitt for his choppy tenure as governor. Brown has unusually high favorable ratings, so Warren argued, If you don’t want the GOP to control the Senate and block Obama completely, then—vote for me.

Nearly all polls in the state last week showed a sudden reversal—with Warren now in the lead, in some cases by several points.

Romney’s declining fortunes in the polls since his private arguments were revealed in the “47 percent” vid have emboldened GOPers such as Joe Scarborough, David Frum, Peggy Noonan, David Brooks and even Bill Kristol to slam Romney. Brooks on Meet the Press yesterday called Romney the “least popular” candidate ever and also a “faker” who has adopted positons he doesn’t much care about. Such criticism provoked a revealing response from Ann “Two Caddy” Romney, who told the GOPers to, literally, “shut up”—how dare they insult her husband, the man who would save the country and maybe the world?

And now her husband has betrayed growing desperation. You really have to read this amazing new New York Times account of Romney, on his campaign plane yesterday, *****ing to reporters about why he’s behind in key polls: (1) Obama’s constant lies about his record and views; (2) Obama’s opting out of federal funding on campaign financing has forced Mitt (poor guy who is so cash strapped) to spend way too much time doing fundraisers; (3) fact-checkers have fallen down on the job (even though his campaign said it would ignore fact-checks); (4) and more.

Romney, who has been running ads that lie about Obama’s welfare policy for weeks, has the gall to say this: “I understand that politics is politics but in the past, when you’ve had an ad which has been roundly pointed out to be wrong, you take it out and you correct it and you put something back on.”

His chief funder, Sheldon Adelson, broke policy and gave a lengthy interview, in which he blamed Romney’s troubles on…wait for it…a hostile media.

And this week we may find that polls also show a negative bump for Romney based on the release of his 2011 tax return last Friday—and how it exposed that his tax rate was still lower than most people, despite his naked flim-flam move, raising the rate by not taking a full deduction for charitable giving. Gosh, now that SNL is back and roasting Mitt, we may even see some fallout from that, even if they don’t match their mockery of Palin.

GOPers are reduced to calling for more exposure for Romney’s running mate (remember him?)—and letting “Ryan be Ryan.” That sounds about as wise as asking the same of the B.J. Novak character on The Office.

Here’s a roundup of a few current polls. And just this morning there’s a new poll via Politico that shows Obama with only a modest 3 percent lead—But it finds that the number of voters who way they still might change their minds has declined from 1 in 5 to 1 in 10. So the chances for Romney to turn things around in the debates—already slim, as I noted here last week—may be evaporating completely.

Much-awaited Pew Research poll finds Obama a whopping 8 percent ahead. Go here for many details. Critically, Obama now tops Romney easily for “enthusiastic”support, 68 percent to 56 percent.

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls in three of the few true tossup states all showed big surges for Obama. Colorado: Obama 50 percent, Romney 45 percent. Iowa: Obama 50 percent, Romney 42 percent. Wisconsin: Obama 50 percent, Romney 45 percent.

Fascinating report by Nate Silver on breakdown in polls this year. The ones that survey voters—some reached via cellphones—strongly back Obama; those that don’t, don’t. Bringing new meaning to the phrase “smart phones.” Of course, the demo may be somewhat different for cellphones, although not so great as years ago when they really skewed young. One key trend: “Mr. Obama’s advantage is also clearer in the swing states. The cellphone-inclusive polls give him an 80 percent chance to win Virginia, a 79 percent chance in Ohio and a 68 percent chance to win Florida, all considerably higher than in the official FiveThirtyEight forecast.”

For more on the fallout from Romney's "47 percent" video, check out John Nichols's latest appearance on Up With Chris Hayes.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/170106...hio-9-florida#

[intelligentjetsfan]

Breaking News: State officials in Ohio and Florida have just launched an all-out investigation into alleged voter fraud. As of today the requirement to vote for any person who is suspected of not being American will be the following;

1. A picture ID.
or
2. written promise to vote for Romney.

[MnJetFan]

Simple question who is Obama's runningmate? Don't know don't vote!

[quantum]

oh noes! Concede now! Dewey Defeats Truman!

[Jungle Shift Jet]

Another oversampled (D) poll based on 2008 voting and ignoring 2010 voting

RonPaulstiltskin / Michelle! in 2016!

[SafetyBlitz]

The debates are important for Romney. If he doesn't "win" them, I don't see how he wins the election.

[AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite]

Originally Posted by SafetyBlitz

The debates are important for Romney. If he doesn't "win" them, I don't see how he wins the election.

I think he can win a domestic policy debate with ease... And Ryan will destroy Biden...

Jury's out on FP stuff for now...

[SafetyBlitz]

Originally Posted by AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite

I think he can win a domestic policy debate with ease... And Ryan will destroy Biden...

Jury's out on FP stuff for now...

Agree to disagree on the domestic policy debate, definitely am worried about the bold.

I'll give respect to the Romney ticket that the debates should be heated. Both of those guys are bright and can talk policy. There are no GWB/Palin 's this time around.

[palmetto defender]

I have stated my projection before and stand by it. Obama will win handily.
Why? Because there are enough lazy Americans who take, take, take. They want the freebie. The gravy train. The handout. They think they deserve an easy way.
Not all Americans. Maybe not even half but enough to turn this election and future ones to the liberal socialist agenda.
Unemployment at 8+%. No problem. Plenty of benefits and those are extended plus welfare plus food stamps ++++. Let the rich boy pay.
More civil servants who hardly work. More Obama teachers who turn out more failing students. Forget foreign policy, domestic is a disaster. Any decent company will move even more production elsewhere.

[Jetdawgg]

Originally Posted by palmetto defender

I have stated my projection before and stand by it. Obama will win handily.
Why? Because there are enough lazy Americans who take, take, take. They want the freebie. The gravy train. The handout. They think they deserve an easy way.
Not all Americans. Maybe not even half but enough to turn this election and future ones to the liberal socialist agenda.
Unemployment at 8+%. No problem. Plenty of benefits and those are extended plus welfare plus food stamps ++++. Let the rich boy pay.
More civil servants who hardly work. More Obama teachers who turn out more failing students. Forget foreign policy, domestic is a disaster. Any decent company will move even more production elsewhere.

[chiefst2000]

That Poll assumes a D+9 sample. The electorate in 2008 was D+6 and in 2004 it was R+1.5. If you are of the mind that Obama will get a better turnout this time around or even an equal turnout you are ignoring reality. The truth is that the election is basically tied at the moment. Romney leads in most polls of independents but the lead average is around +2. The debates will be big this cycle. And I will state this here for the record. Whoever wins the independents will win the election. Even the ridiculous newspaper polls are useful when looking at the independent numbers. The rest is just speculation and faulty assumptions.

Jay Cost had a great article on this today:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...ma_653067.html

Republicans, by and large, are frustrated with recent polls of the presidential election because they think Democrats are being oversampled. Many pollsters respond by saying that “weighting” the polls for partisan identification creates its own problems and might end up skewing the polls in the wrong direction.

I am not in favor of partisan weighting, per se, although some polls like the Rasmussen poll do it in a sensible and nuanced way. So, I think the pollsters are offering a false choice between weighting and not weighting.

Furthermore, a lack of weighting creates its own problems, which many pollsters often fail to acknowledge. Specifically, many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats' standing right now. I base this conclusion not on a secret, black box statistical methodology or some crystal ball, but rather on a read of American electoral history going back to 1972. If I am right, then some of the polls are giving a false sense of the true state of the race, and will likely correct themselves at some point or another.

One important “tell” in my opinion, is this president’s continued weak position with independent voters, who remain the true swing vote.


So, I see two ways the polls are tilted in favor of the president.

First, many of the polls are guessing that Democrats are set to turn out at levels that match or sometimes exceed 2008. Take two examples – recent polls in Ohio and Florida. I’ve included the 2008 and 2004 exit polls as a baseline for consideration.

Here’s Ohio:



The midpoint between 2004 and 2008 is D+1.5. You’ll notice that Gravis, Washington Post, and Fox basically see a replay of 2008 while Rasmussen and the Purple Poll see roughly something in between 2004 and 2008. Relatedly, the polls on the high end for Democrats see a 5-point lead or better for the president (with Gravis being a strange exception), and Obama at or near 50 percent. The polls that see a tighter partisan split basically see a toss-up.

We see the same thing in Florida as well.



The median between 2004 and 2008 is actually a Republican advantage of 1.5 points. But, once again, only Rasmussen and the Purple poll show anything like that. The rest of them tilt toward 2008, with several of them overwhelmingly so. And, once again, the polls that feature “2008 Mach 2.0” show a very healthy Obama lead; the polls that see something between 2004 and 2008 show a pure toss-up.

We also see the same tendency in Virginia, Colorado, and, as best I can tell, Nevada (there has been less polling there).

All told, we see a statistically significant relationship between Obama's margin and the Democratic advantage in partisan identification. In other words, there appears to be a bimodal distribution of the polls. They are not converging around a single point. Instead, some (notably Rasmussen, Purple Strategies, Survey USA, and Mason-Dixon) see Obama ahead by just 1 to 3 points in the key swing states, while others (notably the Washington Post, Fox News, PPP, and NBC News/Marist) see an Obama lead that ranges between 4 and 8 points. And the difference looks to be built around how many Democrats are included in the polling samples.

[sackdance]

Oh the polls ... Romney better quit, he's no match for the majestic Obama, right?

Let's take a closer look...

It's last week of Sept 2012 and nationally polling the two candidates are tied, largely speaking.

But in battleground states, polls are telling a different story.

Here is final '08 and today Florida & Ohio...

Florida 2008: Obama + 2.5% over McCain (final)
FOUR YEARS LATER:
Florida 2012: Obama +9% over Romney (last week sept)

-------------

Ohio 2008: Obama + 4% over McCain (final)
FOUR YEARS LATER
Ohio 2012: Obama +10% over Romney (last week sept)


During last week of Sept '08 Obama was kicking McCain's a$s in national polls, so ... maybe it was +19% Ohio, +25% Florida?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationw...election,_2008

Or maybe Obama is twice as popular as he used to be? Obama and his messengers really are historic, haven't seen this much BS from a "leader" since our dear one kicked the bucket in North Korea.

Btw, saw my first Obama gear yesterday in Manhattan - some lady wearing a hat.

Now recall the wave of Obama paraphernalia in 2008.

[acepepe]

Originally Posted by intelligentjetsfan

Breaking News: State officials in Ohio and Florida have just launched an all-out investigation into alleged voter fraud. As of today the requirement to vote for any person who is suspected of not being American will be the following;

1. A picture ID.
or
2. written promise to vote for Romney.

I read an AP story that ONLY 276 illegal "immigrants were found to be registered in Florida a "miniscule amount" according to AP!!! What was the margin of victory by Bush 12 years ago, IGF? Tell me about Shtcago 1960? Dems STEAL elections and now they're FINALLY being called on it.

[detjetsfan]

All polls taken by the liberal media cannot be trusted. Romney is winning this election.

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by detjetsfan

All polls taken by the liberal media cannot be trusted. Romney is winning this election.

The media is more harmful than even the most profligate liberals, simply because they flout the rules of journalism.

[Timmy®]

Originally Posted by palmetto defender

I have stated my projection before and stand by it. Obama will win handily.
Why? Because there are enough lazy Americans who take, take, take.

No

the reason Obama will win is the Republicans nominated an unlikeable, lying, tax dodging stiff. no other reason. for such an arrogant party, how funny is it that last time, the republicans served up the fairly dim McCain coupled with the Pailin lunatic. now this dork. you can't make this stuff up. you should probably get Joe the Plumber to save the day.

[AlbanyJet]

Second quarter GDP was revised down yesterday to 1.3% because durable goods orders were WAY down.

My sense is that there's going to be a lot more copious bad economic numbers coming out before the election pushing Independents into Romney's column.

Obama just isn't getting it done nor can he get it done.

[FF2®]

Originally Posted by sackdance

The media is more harmful than even the most profligate liberals, simply because they flout the rules of journalism.

What are the "rules" of journalism and where can I get a copy?

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by FF2®

What are the "rules" of journalism and where can I get a copy?

News is what somebody somewhere wants to suppress; all the rest is advertising.

Lord Northcliffe, British publisher 1865-1922

---------------------------------

And 24/7 advertising is what President Obama enjoys from a media that is not doing its job.

[PlumberKhan]

Originally Posted by FF2®

What are the "rules" of journalism and where can I get a copy?

Rules?

Cry like a sissy when the stories aren't what you like.

Show your manhood. B*tch and moan and complain like a post menapausal mother in law.

The sackless party.


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