Ohio Ohio Ohio

[21st Amendment]

Dayton, Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Youngstown. These are the real battlegrounds.

Polls out of Ohio:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...860.html#polls

[chiefst2000]

I just checked out the internals of that Time poll that has Obama up by 5. In that poll Romney leads among Independents 53 to 38. Thats a 15 point margin with independents in Ohio. Since Ohio is one of the most evenly distributed electorates as far as partisan preference goes I don't think the numbers bode well for Obama there.

Intrade odds now at 56 to 44 for Obama up from 78-27 a couple of weeks ago.

[Warfish]

As goes Virginia, so go'eth the Nation?

Possibly?

[21st Amendment]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

I just checked out the internals of that Time poll that has Obama up by 5. In that poll Romney leads among Independents 53 to 38. Thats a 15 point margin with independents in Ohio. Since Ohio is one of the most evenly distributed electorates as far as partisan preference goes I don't think the numbers bode well for Obama there.

Intrade odds now at 56 to 44 for Obama up from 78-27 a couple of weeks ago.

Intrade is an outlier vs. other prediction markets

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...lection/winner

[21st Amendment]

Originally Posted by Warfish

As goes Virginia, so go'eth the Nation?

Possibly?

Virginia is still tight as snare drum. Romney closed the gap on the lead Obama had all year. Obama needs 1 of Virginia and Ohio, Romney needs both.

[chiefst2000]

The way the momentum is playing out, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina are basically in the Romney column. Colorado is looking that way as well. At this moment Ohio is somewhere between even and +2 for Obama and wisconsin is looking like +2or3 for Obama.

The question is where is the momentum in the closing weeks? Will it continue for Romney or will there be some pull back to the mean? Also turnout and enthusiasm will play a major factor in this one. If the turnout looks anything like 2010 ((R+2)its a long shot) Romney will win in a landslide. He would take WI and PA in that scenario. If it looks like 2008 ((D+7) also a long shot) then Obama will take it in a close finish. He would need Democrats to turn out by about a +8 margin to make up for the -10 average margin Romney is leading with independents by.

I think momentum is with Romney at this point as is enthusiasm. I also thought the Jets would win 10 games this year so who knows what the heck will happen.

[21st Amendment]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

The way the momentum is playing out, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina are basically in the Romney column. Colorado is looking that way as well. At this moment Ohio is somewhere between even and +2 for Obama and wisconsin is looking like +2or3 for Obama.

The question is where is the momentum in the closing weeks? Will it continue for Romney or will there be some pull back to the mean? Also turnout and enthusiasm will play a major factor in this one. If the turnout looks anything like 2010 ((R+2)its a long shot) Romney will win in a landslide. He would take WI and PA in that scenario. If it looks like 2008 ((D+7) also a long shot) then Obama will take it in a close finish. He would need Democrats to turn out by about a +8 margin to make up for the -10 average margin Romney is leading with independents by.

I think momentum is with Romney at this point as is enthusiasm. I also thought the Jets would win 10 games this year so who knows what the heck will happen.

I pretty much agree with everything you said, but from what I can tell... the momentum Romney got after the 1st debate has halted, and if that stays the same, Obama wins.

Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada than he's re-elected. He doesn't need Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, NC, NH, or Florida.

[AlbanyJet]

BENGHAZI!

BENGHAZI!

BENGHAZI!

And it that doesn't work for Romney it then becomes:

IMPEACHMENT!

IMPEACHMENT!

IMPEACHMENT!

...because of Benghazi.

[sackdance]

Romney is an accomplished mofo and he has surprised everyone to the upside all election season. His goal all along was for the late surge - and he's got it.

Now people are trying to make the case that his momentum is blunted; meanwhile Romney, who has been a step ahead of everyone (he did not mention Benghazi in 3rd debate - someone in state department must have tipped him off that there would be some news coming out... ) is trying to win PA and MI.

That's right. Romney, who is personally frugal and a fastidious planner, has transferred personnel and campaign dough to Pennsylvania and Michigan (because he's already won NC) ... underestimate this man at your own peril.

All Romney talks about is jobs & economy.

All Obama ever talks about is Romney - something different every day, O has already dropped "Romnesia" or whatever.

Romney is taking OH, WI, VA, CO & possibly MI & PA.

The contest has moved farther north and into the blue states. This is not going to be the close election that the NYT wants you to think it's going to be.

[piney]

Originally Posted by sackdance

Romney is an accomplished mofo and he has surprised everyone to the upside all election season. His goal all along was for the late surge - and he's got it.

Now people are trying to make the case that his momentum is blunted; meanwhile Romney, who has been a step ahead of everyone (he did not mention Benghazi in 3rd debate - someone in state department must have tipped him off that there would be some news coming out... ) is trying to win PA and MI.

That's right. Romney, who is personally frugal and a fastidious planner, has transferred personnel and campaign dough to Pennsylvania and Michigan (because he's already won NC) ... underestimate this man at your own peril.

All Romney talks about is jobs & economy.

All Obama ever talks about is Romney - something different every day, O has already dropped "Romnesia" or whatever.

Romney is taking OH, WI, VA, CO & possibly MI & PA.

The contest has moved farther north and into the blue states. This is not going to be the close election that the NYT wants you to think it's going to be.

we should revisit this post after the election

[PlumberKhan]

Lol. Romney is an accomplished mofo.


Yeah. Must of been hard for him growing up with his governor dad and 10 million bucks he borrowed from his mom.

He's so hardcore. So accomplished. So mofo.




Sent from my Double-Wide using Semaphore...

[Winstonbiggs]

Unemployment benifits surged last week and the stock market has had a huge pullback. The last employment report may play a huge factor. If people get a sense that things are starting to slide backwards they are more likely to change horses.

[AlbanyJet]

Mitt Romney - Personality type 'A': Driven, focused, results oriented, values accountability, hard working, detail oriented.

Other notable 'A' personalities: NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, real estate developer Donald Trump, former President Bill Clinton.

Barack Obama - Personality type 'B': Slow, unresponsive, lacks focus, clueless, uninterested, lost, not detail oriented, no idea what accountability even means, teleprompter dependent.

Other notable 'B' personalities: Albert Einstein, the guy in the park who reads books all day every day, people in old folks' homes.

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by 21st Amendment

I pretty much agree with everything you said, but from what I can tell... the momentum Romney got after the 1st debate has halted, and if that stays the same, Obama wins.

Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada than he's re-elected. He doesn't need Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, NC, NH, or Florida.

I haven't seen any evidence that the momentum towards Mitt has halted. The polls have continued moving his way including Democrat Pollster Baydoun and Foster that has a poll out today showing a 47-47 tie in Michigan. I thought that Obama made a strategic error in debate #3 when he brought up his campaign's claim that Romney wanted to liquidate the auto companies. Gave Romney the forum to correct that falsehood on the national stage.

At this point looking at statements from Obama's team they believe that the electorate, particularly minorities and young people will turn out at the historic levels they did in 2008. Personally I don't see it. I think that GOP voters in 2008 were deflated by the economy and a weak ticket. Many simply didn't vote. I can't see any scenario where that happens again. That alone will change the electorate percentage mix. Now add in a reduced enthusiasm for Obama due to the years of weak economic conditions and the result will likely be a much more evenly distributed electorate. The Obama campaign is counting on their turnout machine. They appear to believe that their get out the vote operation will carry the day for them. I'd admit that it concerns me a bit because its difficult to gauge the effectiveness of that type of thing but on the surface when it seems unlikely they will muster another D+8 turnout.

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by PlumberKhan

He's so hardcore. So accomplished. So mofo.

Correct. His resume more than backs it up.

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

I haven't seen any evidence that the momentum towards Mitt has halted.

Tied in WI?

Did you know that Obama released his 2nd term agenda - the day after the final debate?

Like it's been said, Romney is a Type-A campaigning against a Type-Bozo ... lingering effects of media adulation still obfuscate a groundswell (and it's a shift, btw, that was planned by Romney, to peak at the right time - the only thing Obama can plan is talk show appearances to talk about "Romnesia") that has been forming for many, many months.

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by sackdance

Tied in WI?

Did you know that Obama released his 2nd term agenda - the day after the final debate?

Like it's been said, Romney is a Type-A campaigning against a Type-Bozo ... lingering effects of media adulation still obfuscate a groundswell (and it's a shift, btw, that was planned by Romney, to peak at the right time - the only thing Obama can plan is talk show appearances to talk about "Romnesia") that has been forming for many, many months.

The 2nd term agenda is just the same garbage he has said for years. The idea that anyone would believe that Obama has a plan to cut spending or balance a budget is counter to common sense. He has had 4 years. No mention of entitlement reform, not a single budget passed in the Senate. The entirety of his plan is a tax hike on people making 200K. The funny part is that he wouldn't be able to pass that tax hike because even the Democrats in the Senate oppose it. Forget partisan Republicans and Democrats for a second. Rational independents will go to the polls and decide if they like the way things are going right now or if they are ready for a change of course. The polls consistently show Romney leading with that group by 10 points or more. The Washington Post poll today which actually has a reasonable D+4 electorate sample has Romney up 13 with independents. Almost every poll over the past few weeks have shown similar numbers with Independents.

[21st Amendment]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

I haven't seen any evidence that the momentum towards Mitt has halted. The polls have continued moving his way including Democrat Pollster Baydoun and Foster that has a poll out today showing a 47-47 tie in Michigan. I thought that Obama made a strategic error in debate #3 when he brought up his campaign's claim that Romney wanted to liquidate the auto companies. Gave Romney the forum to correct that falsehood on the national stage.

At this point looking at statements from Obama's team they believe that the electorate, particularly minorities and young people will turn out at the historic levels they did in 2008. Personally I don't see it. I think that GOP voters in 2008 were deflated by the economy and a weak ticket. Many simply didn't vote. I can't see any scenario where that happens again. That alone will change the electorate percentage mix. Now add in a reduced enthusiasm for Obama due to the years of weak economic conditions and the result will likely be a much more evenly distributed electorate. The Obama campaign is counting on their turnout machine. They appear to believe that their get out the vote operation will carry the day for them. I'd admit that it concerns me a bit because its difficult to gauge the effectiveness of that type of thing but on the surface when it seems unlikely they will muster another D+8 turnout.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...103#more-36636

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by 21st Amendment

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...103#more-36636

I read Silvers blog every day but more for the opposition perspective. He is a dedicated partisan democrat. The only odds worth their salt are the ones where people put their money on the line. Intrade is 60-40 odds for Obama right now. Thats the number you should look at for comfort.

For my side I say the odds went from 78-22 to 60-40 in a few weeks. Where does momentum move in the last two weeks? We shall see.

[21st Amendment]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

I read Silvers blog every day but more for the opposition perspective. He is a dedicated partisan democrat. The only odds worth their salt are the ones where people put their money on the line. Intrade is 60-40 odds for Obama right now. Thats the number you should look at for comfort.

For my side I say the odds went from 78-22 to 60-40 in a few weeks. Where does momentum move in the last two weeks? We shall see.

Left leaning sure, dedicated partistan democrat? Could not disagree more. I don't see how anyone who reads him like you do could come to that conclusion. Besides It is entirely possible to be partisan and analyze objectively. I don't believe you think he fudges numbers.

and again Intrade (currently at 63.1% Obama win) is an outlier compared to the other bookies, which all have him over 70%.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...lection/winner

Besides, it's not like these people know more than we do. They see the polling out of the Ohio.