Ohio Ohio Ohio

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by 21st Amendment

Left leaning sure, dedicated partistan democrat? Could not disagree more. I don't see how anyone who reads him like you do could come to that conclusion. Besides It is entirely possible to be partisan and analyze objectively. I don't believe you think he fudges numbers.

and again Intrade (currently at 63.1% Obama win) is an outlier compared to the other bookies, which all have him over 70%.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...lection/winner

Besides, it's not like these people know more than we do. They see the polling out of the Ohio.

I wouldn't read his stuff if I thought it was complete hogwash. He skews for Obama and that's fine. Some of the weighting he puts on particular polls is suspect but some of his analysis particularly looking at changes in particular polls is ok.

I think with gallup showing Romney up by 5 today the idea that this is a 70-30 election right now is not accurate. We have seen since the debates that Romney has solidified a 2 point lead nationally. State polling paints another picture at the moment though the trend there is cause for concern for democrats. Rassmussen has Wisconsin tied at the moment. Other polls still show Obama up 2 there. That said there is little chance that a candidate wins by 2% nationally and loses the electoral. Nothing like that has ever happened. So it comes down to who you believe. Silver says similar in his analysis but he has been weighting the state polls heavier.

[21st Amendment]

CNN just released this poll:

Ohio: (CNN/Opinion Research) Obama 50%, Romney 46% Obama +4

Other polls released today:

Ohio: (ARG) Obama 49%, Romney 47% Obama +2
Ohio: (Purple Strategies)Obama 46%, Romney 44% Obama +2

[21st Amendment]

Some people are already claiming Ohio is a lost cause for Romney. Their campaign just made ExpandtheMap.com aka WeLostOhio.com

Without Ohio, Romney’s only hope now is to pick up Wisconsin and with it also carry Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and New Hampshire. Basically he has to win every other swing state except Iowa. Historically Wisconsin is more liberal than Ohio, we'll see.

[sg3]

Originally Posted by 21st Amendment

Some people are already claiming Ohio is a lost cause for Romney. Their campaign just made ExpandtheMap.com aka WeLostOhio.com

Without Ohio, Romney’s only hope now is to pick up Wisconsin and with it also carry Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and New Hampshire. Basically he has to win every other swing state except Iowa. Historically Wisconsin is more liberal than Ohio, we'll see.

The vast majority of the latest state tracking polls show Obama gaining ground in Ohio and leading in the battleground states other than NorthCarolina and Florida....

Iowa Wisconsin New Hampshire Colorado Nevada and Virginia.

Virginia is interesting because there are concerns in the Romney campaign that Virginian Goode may pick up enough conservative votes to Naderize the state to the Dems


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[sackdance]

Originally Posted by sg3

The vast majority of the latest state tracking polls show Obama gaining ground in Ohio and leading in the battleground states other than NorthCarolina and Florida....

Iowa Wisconsin New Hampshire Colorado Nevada and Virginia.

Virginia is interesting because there are concerns in the Romney campaign that Virginian Goode may pick up enough conservative votes to Naderize the state to the Dems

Headline this afternoon: Gallup: Obama's Job Approval Drops 7 Points in 3 Days
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gall...-points-3-days

This is quite contrary to the "Obama gaining" nonsense. Obama is getting his a$s handed to him.

Originally Posted by 21st Amendment

CNN just released this poll:

Ohio: (CNN/Opinion Research) Obama 50%, Romney 46% Obama +4

Other polls released today:

Ohio: (ARG) Obama 49%, Romney 47% Obama +2
Ohio: (Purple Strategies)Obama 46%, Romney 44% Obama +2

I love these Ohio polls that have Obama equaling and even outperforming his 2008 performance. He was +4 in Ohio in 2008. Got that? He was +4 in 2008 vs. McCain. These polls and their projections are pure fantasy.

[sg3]

So other than Gallup which has been the only organization predicting a Romney landslide for weeks..

All the polls you listed to prove your ass kicking fairytale in Ohio show Romney trailing by a larger margin than the prior polling period..

You convinced me

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[21st Amendment]

Originally Posted by sackdance

I love these Ohio polls that have Obama equaling and even outperforming his 2008 performance. He was +4 in Ohio in 2008. Got that? He was +4 in 2008 vs. McCain. These polls and their projections are pure fantasy.

1 in 8 jobs in Ohio depend on the auto industry. That's pretty much all you need to know.

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by sg3

So other than Gallup which has been the only organization predicting a Romney landslide for weeks..

All the polls you listed to prove your ass kicking fairytale in Ohio show Romney trailing by a larger margin than the prior polling period..

You convinced me

Gallup, which is probably the most highly thought of polling service, has devoted the most resources to incorporating polling via mobile platforms. Disregard the influence of mobile at your own peril.

[sg3]

Your own post said that Mitt is trailing in Ohio in just about every poll since the final debate

But we know....Gallups national popular vote tracking poll is tbe only correct one



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[Frequent Flyer]

Originally Posted by sg3

Your own post said that Mitt is trailing in Ohio in just about every poll since the final debate

But we know....Gallups national popular vote tracking poll is tbe only correct one



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The only thing your O-Bot propaganda is going to accomplish is it's going to whip Holder's People™ into a frenzy after Romney smokes Barry's ass in a landslide.

[Ernie]

Deadlocked in this latest poll from Ohio News Organizations. Also Romney picked up the endorsement of the Columbus Dispatch, the largest paper in the largest city in the state.

Romney closes Obama’s lead to split Ohio
With 9 days left, who will win the Buckeye bellwether is a tossup

Obama Biden: 49%

Romney Ryan: 49%

By Darrel Rowland
The Columbus Dispatch Sunday October 28, 2012 8:00 AM

Boosted by a surge among male voters who think he’s the best candidate to fix the economy, Republican Mitt Romney has come back to tie President Barack Obama in battleground Ohio.

They are deadlocked at 49 percent in a new Dispatch/Ohio News Organization poll. Obama was ahead by 5 points in the same poll published on Sept. 16.

How does that tie get broken in the next nine days?

“In the final days before the election, both campaigns will focus on turning out their bases, appealing to independents and attracting the few undecided voters that remain,” said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research, which conducted the poll for Ohio’s eight largest newspapers.

“Absent any more twists and turns, a remarkable presidential campaign may end with the campaign that executes the best ‘ground game,’ narrowly delivering Ohio for the next president of the United States.”

The Buckeye State, the nation’s top presidential bellwether since 1900, is always important in a presidential election. But this year might be giving Ohio voters an attention-surplus disorder, with more than 70 visits by presidential candidates or their running mates, unprecedented ad spending, and reporters from around the world fanning across the state. Last week, a New York Times statistical analysis called Ohio more important than the other 49 states combined.

In the new poll, Obama wins support for his foreign policy and for pushing the auto loan package for GM and Chrysler. He also benefits somewhat from damage to Romney from his secretly recorded remarks about the “47 percent” of Americans he said are dependent on the government.

But the former Massachusetts governor scores with his performance in the debates. And on the crucial question of who would do the best job handling the economy, Romney prevails by 6 percentage points among all voters — and 18 percent among independents.

“If this poll reflects final voting patterns among Democrats and Republicans, Ohio’s independent voters may hold the keys to both Ohio and the presidency,” Rademacher said. “The poll suggests independent preferences may move around depending on whether they are asked about the economy as a whole, the president’s handling of the auto industry or the ‘47 percent’ issue.

“Even so, Romney’s current advantage among independents in perceptions of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy gives him a leg up on the issue as the candidates make their final appeals to independent voters.”

Male voters have swung sharply toward Romney in the past month. In September, he was winning by 2 points among men on who could best improve economic conditions in Ohio. Now, he’s up by 19 on a slightly different question: Who can better handle the economy? Overall, his lead with men has jumped from 1 to 12 points.

Romney wants more voters like poll participant Wesley Allen, 41, a welder at southern Ohio’s Ripley Metal Works, where he said employees have worked with a 25 percent pay cut for almost two years. Allen said he voted for Obama in 2008.

“Four years ago, I made a mistake. I fell for the whole ‘change’ thing,” he said. “I got on the ‘change’ train. But there wasn’t any change.”

This year, Allen has made plans with four co-workers to meet in front of his Ripley home at 6 a.m. on Election Day and go vote together — all for Romney.

“I honestly believe that Romney will, with his business sense, be able to get us out of this. Four years with Obama and we haven’t succeeded in anything.”

Obama wants more voters like respondent Bruce Meyer, 46, a sales director from Akron who said he is backing the president despite the country’s current economic struggles.

“I sort of look at it as he inherited a mess. I remember how bad things were roughly four years ago. I put a lot of the blame on why things were so bad on the previous eight years,” Meyer said.

“I think we’re on the right course, and to change course now would be a big mistake.”

He said Romney’s remarks about the “47 percent” solidified his thinking.

“I don’t think he has any understanding whatsoever of raising a family and getting up and getting to work on a day-to-day and month-to-month basis. I just don’t think he gets people like me.”

After months of negativity in campaign ads, mailers, automated phone calls and stump speeches, perhaps it’s not surprising that 61 percent of Ohio voters say they are “scared” about who may prevail in this year’s presidential election. But it’s an equal-opportunity fright: 29 percent say they would be scared if Romney wins, and the exact same percentage expresses fear if Obama gets a second term.

And then there’s the 3 percent who say they are scared no matter who wins.

Kevin Taylor, 39, of Monroe near Cincinnati, an attorney and account manager for a sales team, said he is voting for Romney as “the lesser of two evils.”

Taylor said he had high hopes for Obama four years ago but that they have been dashed, so now it’s time for a fresh start. But he worries how much of Romney’s experience “translates to a more global setting that the president would require.”

Taylor’s mirror image is Rosemary Crum, 68, a retired pharmacist from Pickerington, southeast of Columbus.

“Obama’s the lesser of two evils,” she said. “I’m not necessarily a supporter of Obama, but there’s something about Romney I just can’t stand. There’s nothing about him that says ‘trust me.’ His mouth says that, but nothing else.”

Nearly 1 in 5 Ohio voters said they already had cast an early ballot, and Obama was ahead among this group by 27 points, 63 percent to 36 percent. More Democrats than Republicans say they will “definitely vote.”

However, 58 percent of Republicans describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” about the election, compared with 48 percent of Democrats.

The telephone poll — using both land lines and cellphones — conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between Oct. 18 and Tuesday of 1,015 likely voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The response rate was 19.5 percent.

The partisan composition of the randomly chosen respondents: 47 percent Democrat, 44 percent Republican and 10 percent independent. Rademacher said, “This is just inside the range of what we normally see from election to election, which varies between an advantage toward Democrats of plus-5 to an advantage toward Republicans of plus-5 among likely voters.”

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stor...plit-ohio.html

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by sg3

You convinced me

Shock poll Minnesota: http://www.startribune.com/politics/...176113071.html

Romney within "margin of error" in Minnesota. By local polling. It's over, pal. I'm glad I convinced you now because another 10 days of pointless hope would have felt like death by 1000 paper cuts.

[AlbanyJet]

Rasmussen has Romney up 50 to 48 over Obama today in Ohio.

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

Rasmussen has Romney up 50 to 48 over Obama today in Ohio.

And PPP has it today as 51 - 47 Obama.

[sg3]

The vast majority of polls have Romney losing Ohio and all the battleground states but NC and FL.

Rasmussen's polling has Romney leading by double digits in ALL 50 states

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[Jungle Shift Jet]

Originally Posted by crasherino

And PPP has it today as 51 - 47 Obama.

D+5 DailyKos funded poll, of course

When NPR has Romney up you know (D) is in trouble

In early voting, R > B. Hussein by 6 pts. In 08 the MinC was up by 15.

Hi-ho, it's time to take out the trash-erino, Steverino!

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by Jungle Shift Jet

D+5 DailyKos funded poll, of course

When NPR has Romney up you know (D) is in trouble

In early voting, R > B. Hussein by 6 pts. In 08 the MinC was up by 15.

Hi-ho, it's time to take out the trash-erino, Steverino!

We shall see

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by sackdance

Headline this afternoon: Gallup: Obama's Job Approval Drops 7 Points in 3 Days
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gall...-points-3-days

This is quite contrary to the "Obama gaining" nonsense. Obama is getting his a$s handed to him.



I love these Ohio polls that have Obama equaling and even outperforming his 2008 performance. He was +4 in Ohio in 2008. Got that? He was +4 in 2008 vs. McCain. These polls and their projections are pure fantasy.

So if you give the job approval numbers credence, the fact that its now back up to 51% means what exactly?

[sg3]

Originally Posted by Jungle Shift Jet

D+5 DailyKos funded poll, of course

When NPR has Romney up you know (D) is in trouble

In early voting, R > B. Hussein by 6 pts. In 08 the MinC was up by 15.

Hi-ho, it's time to take out the trash-erino, Steverino!

Conspiracy everywhere

Hurricanes

All polls but Rasmussen

Everything

ALL damn lib conspiracies!!!

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[Jungle Shift Jet]

Originally Posted by sg3

Conspiracy everywhere

Hurricanes

All polls but Rasmussen

Everything

ALL damn lib conspiracies!!!

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Go back to the Strip and tilt with the SOJF lightweights, Skippy-you're way out of your league here-even though you can see B. Hussein's small intestine from your house

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html



RCP Average 10/22 - 10/29--4847.1 Romney +0.9

NPR 10/23 - 10/25 1000 LV3.14847 Romney +1

Rasmussen Reports 10/27 - 10/29 1500 LV34947 Romney+2

Pew Research 10/24 - 10/28 1495 LV2.94747 Tie

ABC News/Wash Post 10/25 - 10/28 1259 LV3.54949 Tie

Gallup 10/22 - 10/28 2700 LV25146 Romney +5

IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/27 930 LV3.54445 Obama +1