For election junkies only - Jets Insider.com Forums

FF2® · 10-31-2012, 09:56 AM

Interesting read for those into such stuff.

(And please, its just a good read, no need for everyone to go all wrgabdfkr.)

http://norvig.com/election-faq-2012.html

AlbanyJet · 10-31-2012, 11:21 AM

Dick Morris: Obama Collapse Nears

October 31, 2012

Dear Newsmax Reader:

As the nation reels from the devastating hurricane — and rightfully our focus is to help our fellow Americans in need at this time — the news headlines are blurring the fact Barack Obama's campaign is falling apart.

As I predicted weeks ago, key states like Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are falling into the Romney column. Obama's people simply can't believe what has happened. They are panicking.

Right now, as I write this, they are dispatching Bill Clinton to Minnesota and Joe Biden to Pennsylvania to shore up collapsing support in those states.

Two months ago these states were considered "safe" Obama states, but are now disintegrating! Obama's people obviously know they are in trouble. The shift in states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is part of a national surge for Romney, one I predicted long ago. Have we won this?
No, not yet. And we can't rest until we pull Mitt across the finish line. This is why I joined with Super PAC for America, the group headed by Mike Reagan that has made a huge difference in key swing states like Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia. Soon after we opened up our offensive against Obama in Pennsylvania his campaign suddenly decided to buy TV ads there and even send Joe Biden. Clearly, the Obama people are watching us and reacting to our moves. They can do this all they want — because they can't stop our message. Super PAC for America is simply going across the country and reminding Americans of Obama's terrible record as president.

The economy, foreign affairs, our standing in the world — all have fallen during four years under Obama. Americans realize we can't allow four more!
Along with the Super PAC team assembled by Mike Reagan, I'm working overtime to defeat Barack Obama. We know just days separate us from victory. Right now we are unleashing a new ad reminding seniors of how Obama has decimated their Medicare. It's a powerful 30-second ad because it simply states the undeniable facts.

Remember that in many swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and others seniors are over-represented and will serve as a key swing group.
Obama has spent huge sums targeting seniors with phony "scare" tactics to win their support. I believe as we remind them and others about the dangers of Obamacare, the new taxes, the $1 trillion in new costs — they will flee Obama and vote for Romney. At this moment, Mike Reagan and I are making the last-minute decisions for our media efforts to expose Obama in key states for this final weekend. We can't take our success so far for granted.

Thank you for all of your support.

Yours for America,
Dick Morris

sg3 · 10-31-2012, 11:43 AM

Dick Morris????

Newsmax???

The right-wing nutjobs are now even sinking beneath Breitbart and Foxnews to convince themselves that the Romney ship hasn't sunk.

Meanwhile on the real planet Earth...

Still trailing and (and trailing worse each day) in seven of the nine battleground states

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

Warfish · 10-31-2012, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sg3

Meanwhile on the real planet Earth...

On the real planet Earth, your guy got 2% of the vote in the primaries, and is a total non-entity.

AlbanyJet · 10-31-2012, 11:55 AM

I don't know dude!

Dick Morris is pretty much putting his whole reputation on the line with this. The election is less than one week away.

And I don't think he's using the incorrect D+4 polling that you contstantly refer to.

sg3 · 10-31-2012, 12:01 PM

His only "reputation" is as a right-wing hack sexual pervert
Zero cred

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite · 10-31-2012, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sg3

His only "reputation" is as a right-wing hack sexual pervert
Zero cred

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

The dude was one of the most powerful people behind the scenes in Washington for a decent stretch... For D

Scandal or not, he has far more knowledge of the inner workings of an election and can interpret polling data far better than you... Or anyone on this forum for that matter...

AlbanyJet · 10-31-2012, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite

Scandal or not, he has far more knowledge of the inner workings of an election and can interpret polling data far better than you... Or anyone on this forum for that matter...

Dick Morris interprets polling data! This is the key!

crasherino · 10-31-2012, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

I don't know dude!

Dick Morris is pretty much putting his whole reputation on the line with this. The election is less than one week away.

And I don't think he's using the incorrect D+4 polling that you contstantly refer to.

Come on, that's silly. Putting aside the blithering nonsense coming out of certain people in this thread, Dick Morris isn't staking anything by saying what he's saying. He's a paid operative and an effective one at that. This is nothing more than him spinning for his side. Does he have a basis in reality? He might. But, I'm not sure you should give it any more credence than something that would come out of....say.... Donna Brazile's mouth. Both sides can take various polling data and say how much it helps their guy. This is hardly raw data.

AlbanyJet · 10-31-2012, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crasherino

Come on, that's silly. Putting aside the blithering nonsense coming out of certain people in this thread, Dick Morris isn't staking anything by saying what he's saying. He's a paid operative and an effective one at that. This is nothing more than him spinning for his side. Does he have a basis in reality? He might. But, I'm not sure you should give it any more credence than something that would come out of....say.... Donna Brazile's mouth. Both sides can take various polling data and say how much it helps their guy. This is hardly raw data.

Dick Morris works for himself and he also writes a lot of best selling books. If his prediction if off, he's finished.

Why would he take such a huge risk, unless it's not a risk at all?

crasherino · 10-31-2012, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

Dick Morris works for himself and he also writes a lot of best selling books. If his prediction if off, he's finished.

Why would he take such a huge risk, unless it's not a risk at all?

He may "work for himself" but he is what he is....a right wing political consultant (albeit with a period of working with Bubba). Why would he be finished if he spins for his side? Dick Morris is biased....which is fine. There's nothing wrong with that, but to say that he's taking a huge risk by slanting his articles towards Romney is off base. He's not an objective bystander.

Besides, Morris has been wrong plenty of times. Never stopped him from shooting his mouth off in the past. Won't stop him in the future.

FF2® · 10-31-2012, 01:26 PM

Just for laughs heres some old Morris predictions...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...litical-pundit

sg3 · 10-31-2012, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FF2®

Just for laughs heres some old Morris predictions...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...litical-pundit

And this latest boner with the Obama collapse and Willard carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan and presumably all the battleground states would be the NEW NUMBER ONE if not for it appearing on Newsmax...a publication that makes the National Review and the Amerikan Spektator seem liberal

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

chiefst2000 · 11-03-2012, 05:07 PM

Here is the deal with polling. One of two things will happen on tuesday. If the average of the polls are correct then it will be a tight race likely coming down to a few votes in a few key states. I could see Romney taking the popular with Obama squeaking out the electoral. There is a plausible theory however that the majority of the polls are incorrect. The questions about the makeup of the electorate are legitimate.

Here is the quandry. Even the most liberal polls show independents breaking for Romney by 8-15 points. Gallup, Rassmussen and Pew are all seperately showing that the electorate has shifted to an R+1 more like the 2004 election. If we assume that D and R carry 90% of their loyalists then it leaves the independents. A 10 point victory with independents should result in a 3-5% margin of victory for Romney.

The question is what to believe?

10-31-2012, 09:56 AM	#1
FF2® Believes Sloppy Guy was involved JetsInsider.com Legend Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 46,172	For election junkies only Interesting read for those into such stuff. (And please, its just a good read, no need for everyone to go all wrgabdfkr.) http://norvig.com/election-faq-2012.html

10-31-2012, 11:21 AM	#2
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	Dick Morris: Obama Collapse Nears October 31, 2012 Dear Newsmax Reader: As the nation reels from the devastating hurricane — and rightfully our focus is to help our fellow Americans in need at this time — the news headlines are blurring the fact Barack Obama's campaign is falling apart. As I predicted weeks ago, key states like Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are falling into the Romney column. Obama's people simply can't believe what has happened. They are panicking. Right now, as I write this, they are dispatching Bill Clinton to Minnesota and Joe Biden to Pennsylvania to shore up collapsing support in those states. Two months ago these states were considered "safe" Obama states, but are now disintegrating! Obama's people obviously know they are in trouble. The shift in states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is part of a national surge for Romney, one I predicted long ago. Have we won this? No, not yet. And we can't rest until we pull Mitt across the finish line. This is why I joined with Super PAC for America, the group headed by Mike Reagan that has made a huge difference in key swing states like Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia. Soon after we opened up our offensive against Obama in Pennsylvania his campaign suddenly decided to buy TV ads there and even send Joe Biden. Clearly, the Obama people are watching us and reacting to our moves. They can do this all they want — because they can't stop our message. Super PAC for America is simply going across the country and reminding Americans of Obama's terrible record as president. The economy, foreign affairs, our standing in the world — all have fallen during four years under Obama. Americans realize we can't allow four more! Along with the Super PAC team assembled by Mike Reagan, I'm working overtime to defeat Barack Obama. We know just days separate us from victory. Right now we are unleashing a new ad reminding seniors of how Obama has decimated their Medicare. It's a powerful 30-second ad because it simply states the undeniable facts. Remember that in many swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and others seniors are over-represented and will serve as a key swing group. Obama has spent huge sums targeting seniors with phony "scare" tactics to win their support. I believe as we remind them and others about the dangers of Obamacare, the new taxes, the $1 trillion in new costs — they will flee Obama and vote for Romney. At this moment, Mike Reagan and I are making the last-minute decisions for our media efforts to expose Obama in key states for this final weekend. We can't take our success so far for granted. Thank you for all of your support. Yours for America, Dick Morris

10-31-2012, 11:43 AM	#3
sg3 REX AND THE I-MAN - BACK ON TRACK Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: The Big Apple, USA Posts: 20,380	Dick Morris???? Newsmax??? The right-wing nutjobs are now even sinking beneath Breitbart and Foxnews to convince themselves that the Romney ship hasn't sunk. Meanwhile on the real planet Earth... Still trailing and (and trailing worse each day) in seven of the nine battleground states Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

10-31-2012, 11:55 AM	#5
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	I don't know dude! Dick Morris is pretty much putting his whole reputation on the line with this. The election is less than one week away. And I don't think he's using the incorrect D+4 polling that you contstantly refer to.

10-31-2012, 12:01 PM	#6
sg3 REX AND THE I-MAN - BACK ON TRACK Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: The Big Apple, USA Posts: 20,380	His only "reputation" is as a right-wing hack sexual pervert Zero cred Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

10-31-2012, 01:26 PM	#12
FF2® Believes Sloppy Guy was involved JetsInsider.com Legend Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 46,172	Just for laughs heres some old Morris predictions... http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...litical-pundit

11-03-2012, 05:07 PM	#14
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,829	Here is the deal with polling. One of two things will happen on tuesday. If the average of the polls are correct then it will be a tight race likely coming down to a few votes in a few key states. I could see Romney taking the popular with Obama squeaking out the electoral. There is a plausible theory however that the majority of the polls are incorrect. The questions about the makeup of the electorate are legitimate. Here is the quandry. Even the most liberal polls show independents breaking for Romney by 8-15 points. Gallup, Rassmussen and Pew are all seperately showing that the electorate has shifted to an R+1 more like the 2004 election. If we assume that D and R carry 90% of their loyalists then it leaves the independents. A 10 point victory with independents should result in a 3-5% margin of victory for Romney. The question is what to believe?