Election 2012 - Pick the Result!

[SafetyBlitz]

Thanks, Chiefs.

Back at ya, bub.

Can't wait for this election to be over. I'm so done with this election cycle.

GoT s3 in 144 days.

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by sg3

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2


My post was reasoned and in response to your predition of Romney sweeping the majority of the battleground states

Your response to it brought in your intelligent and reasoned "muslim kenyan" crap

So who's the adult?

There is nothing intelligent about your response. You say that Obama wins everything. Almost every poll has the election tied nationally or Romney up one using the 2008 turnout models. Furthermore your history of all your posts is the same unintelligent partisan rooting. I can do stupid partisan rooting too as you saw in my satirical response.

By the way I didn't say Romney would sweep the majority of the swing states. Michigan, Minnesota and PA are swing states that I think Obama can eek out. I am a Romney partisan but I'm posting my opinion on the outcome as an observer of the polling data.

[Timmy®]

sg3's supreme confidence in an Obama victory has me DAMN worried.

[sg3]

The election may or may not be tied in meaningless national tracking polls

Where it not true is in the battleground state polls..nine states...where President Obama as of yesterday was ahead by in seven of them trailing in NC and in a dead heat in FL.

And before you tar me with your Nate Silver liberal brush...the same facts are the same at Politico, realclearpolitics and pretty much everywhere.



Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by Timmy®

sg3's supreme confidence in an Obama victory has me DAMN worried.

You should be happy. People voting for Obama don't understand our dire long term fiscal situation. It is as simple as that. If you voted for him you don't understand what is coming. Within the next 10 years entitlement spending will encompass 92% of the federal budget. The rest will go to interest on the debt. Any other money will need to be borrowed. By default the most needy among us will be hurt the most. Obama will not address any of it. He hasn't so far and he has made no promises to do so in a second term.

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by sg3

The election may or may not be tied in meaningless national tracking polls

Where it not true is in the battleground state polls..nine states...where President Obama as of yesterday was ahead by in seven of them trailing in NC and in a dead heat in FL.

And before you tar me with your Nate Silver liberal brush...the same facts are the same at Politico, realclearpolitics and pretty much everywhere.



Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

May or may not be ahead? What the polls say isn't speculation. They are there for anyone to check. Romney is tied or ahead nationally. In the state polling he is behind by a slim margin. Most are using turnout samples I believe undercut GOP enthusiasm. Regardless to think that Obama wins big in the national vote is silly. At best he eeks out a miniscule margin nationally and wins the electoral. For my side at best Romney wins in PA, WI, and MI and it becomes a wave landslide. I believe something in the middle happens and it comes down to a few thousand voted in Ohio and WI.

[Timmy®]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

You should be happy. People voting for Obama don't understand our dire long term fiscal situation. It is as simple as that. If you voted for him you don't understand what is coming. Within the next 10 years entitlement spending will encompass 92% of the federal budget. The rest will go to interest on the debt. Any other money will need to be borrowed. By default the most needy among us will be hurt the most. Obama will not address any of it. He hasn't so far and he has made no promises to do so in a second term.

I'm fending for myself here. Obama's social programs aren't helping me. Romney's tax breaks for the wealthy and business owners who outsource jobs to china and india won't do me any good either. Whoever gets elected will see new jobs created in the future, what they won't say is they are Manpower or Spherion jobs that pay ten bucks an hour with no benefits.

My life will be pretty much the same. Only thing I'm worried about is Romney wasting even more money on the military.

[Borgoguy]

Obama: 55%

Romney: 45%

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by Timmy®

I'm fending for myself here. Obama's social programs aren't helping me. Romney's tax breaks for the wealthy and business owners who outsource jobs to china and india won't do me any good either. Whoever gets elected will see new jobs created in the future, what they won't say is they are Manpower or Spherion jobs that pay ten bucks an hour with no benefits.

My life will be pretty much the same. Only thing I'm worried about is Romney wasting even more money on the military.

There are no tax breaks for wealthy business owners that outsource jobs to china. That would be silly and counter productive. What will help you is opening up Anwar and offshore to drilling. Opening up places like upstate new york and western PA to safe fracking to get to massive natural gas stores. The oil and gas in Canada has allowed that country to make a massive turnaround. Oilfield service jobs pay very well and the jobs are appropriate for laid off factory workers and construction workers. That alone will help our ceconomy immensely. Dealing with structural entitlement reform is a must if our country can avoid the impending budget disaster. Obama will not do it.

[Tucker134]

It's Mitt.

The white suburbs are all going with Romney, whereas mnay of them went with O in '08.

Catholics have turned sharply to Romney

Romney pulled even with O with women in recent weeks

The media is pulling hard for Obama- i say look at whay happened with Chick Filet..NO ONE saw that response from the American people, & it wasn't just down south.

Obama has been acting increasingly desperate that past few weeks- he see's the internals...

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by sg3

Why fish???


Because I correctly identified this bigoted hate filled lie as a bigoted hate filled lie???


Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2

No, because you come off as an ahole no matter where you are.

I'm not really active in this forum so I don't feel its really my place to police a place that is generally self-policing (although I have pulled trigger in the past). But, as you are not really part of that self-policing community and I've warned you countless times in other forums, I'll repeat it here....

Knock it off or you won't get to celebrate Obama's win. Oh, I forgot, you really are a Paul supporter.....right

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

May or may not be ahead? What the polls say isn't speculation. They are there for anyone to check. Romney is tied or ahead nationally. In the state polling he is behind by a slim margin. Most are using turnout samples I believe undercut GOP enthusiasm. Regardless to think that Obama wins big in the national vote is silly. At best he eeks out a miniscule margin nationally and wins the electoral. For my side at best Romney wins in PA, WI, and MI and it becomes a wave landslide. I believe something in the middle happens and it comes down to a few thousand voted in Ohio and WI.

I'm not sure I understand how you come to that conclusion. The final National polls favor Obama by an average of 1.5% or so. I think only Gallup and Rasmussen give Romney an advantage and that's by 1%. The other 10 (or so) have it as Obama and tied.

And practically every final state poll, save for North Carolina is favoring Obama (Florida too looks like a dead heat). Granted, they are by small percentages, but its pretty much across the board favoring Obama. I'm not suggesting that its impossible that Romney pulls it out, but I can't see how you can look at the last polls and say they suggest a Romney victory. Romney would clearly have to demonstrate the polling figures wrong. I understand Conservatives are wary of 538's projections, but what about electionprojection.com - a conservative counterpart to Nate Silver?

I'd be happy to make a wager with anyone here. $500. Loser pays it to the Sandy Relief Fund.

Any takers?

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by crasherino

I'm not sure I understand how you come to that conclusion. The final National polls favor Obama by an average of 1.5% or so. I think only Gallup and Rasmussen give Romney an advantage and that's by 1%. The other 10 (or so) have it as Obama and tied.

And practically every final state poll, save for North Carolina is favoring Obama (Florida too looks like a dead heat). Granted, they are by small percentages, but its pretty much across the board favoring Obama. I'm not suggesting that its impossible that Romney pulls it out, but I can't see how you can look at the last polls and say they suggest a Romney victory. Romney would clearly have to demonstrate the polling figures wrong. I understand Conservatives are wary of 538's projections, but what about electionprojection.com - a conservative counterpart to Nate Silver?

I'd be happy to make a wager with anyone here. $500. Loser pays it to the Sandy Relief Fund.

Any takers?

The final polls by both Gallup and Rassmussen have Romney ahead by one. The battleground poll shows the same.The D+11 CNN poll has it tied at 49-49. D+11 seems a bit high considering the electorate in 2008 was D+7. The states are polling very tight with recent polls showing even in Ohio, Michigan, PA and WI.

Am I confident? No I'm nervous as hell. It is scary to think an election will come down to a few thousand voters. That however is what the polls are telling us. I think it will come down to a few thousand votes. We will see.



I think it will be tight as the polls indicate. I believe that

[Winstonbiggs]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

You should be happy. People voting for Obama don't understand our dire long term fiscal situation. It is as simple as that. If you voted for him you don't understand what is coming. Within the next 10 years entitlement spending will encompass 92% of the federal budget. The rest will go to interest on the debt. Any other money will need to be borrowed. By default the most needy among us will be hurt the most. Obama will not address any of it. He hasn't so far and he has made no promises to do so in a second term.

It's not quite as simple as that if it were this would be no contest. Most of the Republican Congress has pledged no tax increases. Romney has said he is not raising taxes. No new net increases in revenue yet with no real tax cuts per Romney no real stimulus to growth. No cuts in spending because the military is going to be exempt from cuts under Romney and SS and Medicare are untouched for at least 15 years when another administration will deal with it.

This election is really about which Constituents will get taken care of. There is no plan to solve our national problems by either side that has any cred.

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by crasherino

I'm not sure I understand how you come to that conclusion. The final National polls favor Obama by an average of 1.5% or so. I think only Gallup and Rasmussen give Romney an advantage and that's by 1%. The other 10 (or so) have it as Obama and tied.

And practically every final state poll, save for North Carolina is favoring Obama (Florida too looks like a dead heat). Granted, they are by small percentages, but its pretty much across the board favoring Obama. I'm not suggesting that its impossible that Romney pulls it out, but I can't see how you can look at the last polls and say they suggest a Romney victory. Romney would clearly have to demonstrate the polling figures wrong. I understand Conservatives are wary of 538's projections, but what about electionprojection.com - a conservative counterpart to Nate Silver?

I'd be happy to make a wager with anyone here. $500. Loser pays it to the Sandy Relief Fund.

Any takers?

Another thing is that Conservatives take heart in the fact that the polls were quite off in the past few elections. In Wisconsin it was a dead heat and Walker won by 6. In the 2010 mid terms the polls showed a close race and we had a GOP wave. The final Gallup and Rassmussen polls predicted a R+2 partisan divide this election. Yet the national pollsters you mention are using D+5 or more samples. I look at national polls and see Romney ahead by margins of between 6-20 with independents. How can you lose the popular and win independents by 6 or more? Only if a lot more D then GOP vote.

There are arguments for both sides here. We won't know for sure who was right until tonight. I suspect that as things normally do this will fall somewhere in the middle. Maybe an even split in the electorate or a D+1 or 2 with I's breaking for Romney between 7-9. That leaves a very tight outcome where Romney squeaks out the popular and the electoral is decided by a few thousand votes in key states.

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

By the way I didn't say Romney would sweep the majority of the swing states.

I did and still do. There's no polling turnout, baby.

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

Michigan, Minnesota and PA are swing states that I think Obama can eek out. I am a Romney partisan but I'm posting my opinion on the outcome as an observer of the polling data.

PA is Romney's to storm. Michigan for Romney to squeak. MN is a reach, even for my optimistic hopes.

If anyone wants to see real delusion, just check out HuffingtonPost/DailyKos/etc. calling FL for Obama and wondering if NC is following suit.

[sackdance]

Originally Posted by crasherino

And practically every final state poll, save for North Carolina is favoring Obama (Florida too looks like a dead heat). Granted, they are by small percentages, but its pretty much across the board favoring Obama.

National polls favor Romney, consistently. This means either magical votes have to appear in these curiously aligned spikes in battleground states or that for the first time in history national polls do not have their pulse on jack squat, while local polls hit the mark.

31 national polls in October. Obama did not 50% favorable in a single one, while Romney got there in 10 of them. Do you really think this trend isn't going to manifest itself in these tight polls that oversample Democrats to begin with?

Romney landslide. Cross reference my assertions with the overflow crowds that follow one candidate in battleground states that somehow don't find the other candidate, unless Springsteen/Jay-Z tag along. Obama is done-zo.

[detectivekimble]

Originally Posted by sackdance

National polls favor Romney, consistently. This means either magical votes have to appear in these curiously aligned spikes in battleground states or that for the first time in history national polls do not have their pulse on jack squat, while local polls hit the mark.

31 national polls in October. Obama did not 50% favorable in a single one, while Romney got there in 10 of them. Do you really think this trend isn't going to manifest itself in these tight polls that oversample Democrats to begin with?

Romney landslide. Cross reference my assertions with the overflow crowds that follow one candidate in battleground states that somehow don't find the other candidate, unless Springsteen/Jay-Z tag along. Obama is done-zo.

Unfortunately for you, reality is going to set in soon.

[sg3]

Originally Posted by sackdance

I did and still do. There's no polling turnout, baby.


PA is Romney's to storm. Michigan for Romney to squeak. MN is a reach, even for my optimistic hopes.

If anyone wants to see real delusion, just check out HuffingtonPost/DailyKos/etc. calling FL for Obama and wondering if NC is following suit.

nailed those two, sack.... nice job

[AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite]

Originally Posted by sg3

nailed those two, sack.... nice job

You want us to start pulling your predictions? I can find hundreds that are not only wrong but complete idiocy...