Top ten Jets thoughts of the week.

[Rob0729]

No offense, but $8.25 million for a "QB with upside" is a lot of money. This year, Sanchez would be the 5th highest paid QB in the league (on base salaries) with that salary. Aaron Rodgers is only making $8 million this year in base salary. Tom Brady's total cap hit this year is $8 million ($950k base salary). A guy like Sanchez who a team might think has a chance to be a reclaimation project might be worth taking a risk on at $2-3 million, not over $8 million. That is very good to elite QB pay. Any team who might take a flier on him would need to have another starting quality QB to compete with him and step in if he sucks.

If I was Tannebaum, I would package Sanchez and a third or fourth rounder to any team with tons of cash for a good role player who might turn into a good starter. That is the Jets best chance of unloading Sanchez and his salary. The Jets are likely going to have to pay a team to take him off their hands to free up the cap space.

[KR]

Originally Posted by Rob0729

No offense, but $8.25 million for a "QB with upside" is a lot of money. This year, Sanchez would be the 5th highest paid QB in the league (on base salaries) with that salary. Aaron Rodgers is only making $8 million this year in base salary. Tom Brady's total cap hit this year is $8 million ($950k base salary). A guy like Sanchez who a team might think has a chance to be a reclaimation project might be worth taking a risk on at $2-3 million, not over $8 million. That is very good to elite QB pay. Any team who might take a flier on him would need to have another starting quality QB to compete with him and step in if he sucks.

If I was Tannebaum, I would package Sanchez and a third or fourth rounder to any team with tons of cash for a good role player who might turn into a good starter. That is the Jets best chance of unloading Sanchez and his salary. The Jets are likely going to have to pay a team to take him off their hands to free up the cap space.

Matt Flynn is getting 6-7m to sit on the bench as a career backup who started 1-2 games in his career. Backup QB's make 3.5 m like Jason Campbell.

Someone is surely traded for Sanchez. "He has won playoff games, and has been simply not been handled right by the Jets". "Its not his fault"

[thshadow]

Originally Posted by Rob0729

No offense, but $8.25 million for a "QB with upside" is a lot of money.

Alex Smith was given $9.5M guaranteed for this year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting like $10M per year.

Matt Flynn was signed for 3 years / $20M.

Do *I* think Sanchez is worth $8.25M? Heck no. But I think someone else might. (Also patman states that another $4M is guaranteed in 2014. If true, that certainly doesn't help things.)

[chiefst2000]

Originally Posted by KR

Matt Flynn is getting 6-7m to sit on the bench as a career backup who started 1-2 games in his career. Backup QB's make 3.5 m like Jason Campbell.

Someone is surely traded for Sanchez. "He has won playoff games, and has been simply not been handled right by the Jets". "Its not his fault"

With Wilson looking like the guy in Seattle they should be looking to get rid of Flynn's long term contract. What about packaging Sanchez and some cash back in exchange? Reunite Sanchez with Carroll and it gets Seattle out of a long term deal with a guy they don't value???

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

With Wilson looking like the guy in Seattle they should be looking to get rid of Flynn's long term contract. What about packaging Sanchez and some cash back in exchange? Reunite Sanchez with Carroll and it gets Seattle out of a long term deal with a guy they don't value???

And then we're stuck with Flynn? I understand that Sanchez might not be the solution, but I'm not sure we're any closer with Flynn. And I have no idea how the team would make that decision. Its not like there is any real tape on him other than 2 spot starts over a year ago. And since that point, he got de-throned by a mid-round pick.

[CanadaSteve]

Originally Posted by PMarsico9

If Alex Smith is brought in as an upgrade to Sanchez, I am not attending a game next year.

Alex Smith is WORSE than Sanchez, it's just that the Niners are loaded.

NOTHING could be further from the truth. Smith struggled when he had no talent, that is a given. But he has come into his own and is the epitome of what a West Coast QB is to do. Make accurate throws and not turn the ball over.

[Rob0729]

Originally Posted by KR

Matt Flynn is getting 6-7m to sit on the bench as a career backup who started 1-2 games in his career. Backup QB's make 3.5 m like Jason Campbell.

Someone is surely traded for Sanchez. "He has won playoff games, and has been simply not been handled right by the Jets". "Its not his fault"

Matt Flynn was supposed to be a starter and could garner more on the open market than Sanchez right now or last offseason. Flynn in his limited playing time in Green Bay was a stud. Some people were thinking he was another Aaron Rodgers who was a stud being kept back because he was playing behind one of the best (if not the best) QBs in the league.

Most people now feel that Sanchez is a limited QB who cannot see the field, makes poor decisions, iand easily rattled. I think most of the league believes he is a limited QB who can be a good game manager with an excellent defense and running. At best he is a guy who can put together a great drive here or there, but will never be anything better than an average QB.

If any GM trades for Sanchez with his current salary for any draft picks straight up should be immediately fired. That is why no GM is going to do it. If the Jets convert some of his salary to a signing bonus and eat it themselves (getting his base salary down to $4 million or so), then maybe. Maybe if Sanchez is willing to redo his deal with a new team and take a paycut.

You guys are dreaming if you think any GM is going to eat a $8 million salary for a guy with a ceiling of being a good game manager.

[Rob0729]

Originally Posted by thshadow

Alex Smith was given $9.5M guaranteed for this year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting like $10M per year.

Matt Flynn was signed for 3 years / $20M.

Do *I* think Sanchez is worth $8.25M? Heck no. But I think someone else might. (Also patman states that another $4M is guaranteed in 2014. If true, that certainly doesn't help things.)

Alex Smith showed that he was good in the 49ers' system and after losing out on the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, the 49ers lost their bargaining power with Smith.

Fitzpatrick started last year as one of the league's best QBs and quickly turned to crap after his deal was signed. I think Fitzpatrick was the leading QB in yards the first four weeks last year and had 9 TDs in the first three weeks. He showed a quick flash of being an elite QB and the Bills stupidily gave him a big deal.

I already addressed Flynn in my last post. But one thing I did forget to mention is that he got his contract largely due to the fact that he threw for 480 yards and 6 TDs in the last game of the season last year. Sanchez has never had a game remotely close to that.

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by Rob0729

Matt Flynn was supposed to be a starter and could garner more on the open market than Sanchez right now or last offseason. Flynn in his limited playing time in Green Bay was a stud. Some people were thinking he was another Aaron Rodgers who was a stud being kept back because he was playing behind one of the best (if not the best) QBs in the league.

Most people now feel that Sanchez is a limited QB who cannot see the field, makes poor decisions, iand easily rattled. I think most of the league believes he is a limited QB who can be a good game manager with an excellent defense and running. At best he is a guy who can put together a great drive here or there, but will never be anything better than an average QB.

If any GM trades for Sanchez with his current salary for any draft picks straight up should be immediately fired. That is why no GM is going to do it. If the Jets convert some of his salary to a signing bonus and eat it themselves (getting his base salary down to $4 million or so), then maybe. Maybe if Sanchez is willing to redo his deal with a new team and take a paycut.

You guys are dreaming if you think any GM is going to eat a $8 million salary for a guy with a ceiling of being a good game manager.

Agree with that, but, as you suggest, the Jets could eat $3 million of it and have him re-negotiate going forward. That may be palatable for another team and is certainly palatable for the Jets.

[southparkcpa]

Originally Posted by crasherino

Lost in the Sanchez and Holmes debacle is how bad a deal David Harris's is. I can understand, somewhat, the overpaying of Sanchez and even Holmes. The Jets felt that they were somewhat desperate at those positions and really needed to get something for the Offense.

I always thought Mangini got somewhat of a bum rap. Problem is, he had the charisma of a pencil, but he was stuck with an aging QB with a hurt arm and he was powerless to bench him. That team, coming off wins at TN and NE, was poised for something special. Its a shame it went down the way it did.

Mangini may have the personality of a pencil..but so does BB, Tomlin and a few others. I simply believe Mangini could have won 10 games in 2009 and 11 in 2010.

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by southparkcpa

Mangini may have the personality of a pencil..but so does BB, Tomlin and a few others. I simply believe Mangini could have won 10 games in 2009 and 11 in 2010.

Nah, Tomlin is loved by his team. He may not be flamboyant, but he's definitely got charisma.

I think the biggest problem with Mangini is that he tried too hard to be Bellichek. He hadn't really experienced much else. But, Bellichek is a unique personality. He's a curmuddgeon but it works for him. He's a salty, arrogant ahole, but that's generally who he is. Plus, he has that dry sense of humor that comes out when you'd least expect it.

Mangini, instead of being true to his own personality and develop his own style of leadership (which he should have borrowed SOME from BB), thought that he had to be unnecessarily sneaky and evasive like his mentor. It didn't work for him. On occasion, when his true personality came out, he was a funny, charismatic guy. But his overarching persona was a secretive grouch and, unlike BB, he never earned the right to act like that.

And then, when the team collapsed, there was simply no support for him and he went down with that collapsing team.

I don't know if Mangini would have drafted Sanchez which then would have changed the trajectory of that entire team, but I think he could have been successful if he stayed on.

[patman]

Originally Posted by GreenWave

Maybe Harris at SLB in the 4-3? Davis has the speed (and hopefully the ability) to play in the middle and then the Jets just need to fill the WLB position in the offseason.

Guess the issue then would be whether or not Harris can effectively set the edge on running plays, and his coverage skills would be tested even further.

No way in hell, Harris has difficulty in deep drops from the ILB, now you want him lined up on the TE and cover man.

[patman]

Originally Posted by crasherino

Agree with that, but, as you suggest, the Jets could eat $3 million of it and have him re-negotiate going forward. That may be palatable for another team and is certainly palatable for the Jets.

The guy is owed 17 mill from the jets. This is about 40% of all the money he would have made in his career. Why would he ever take a pay cut from guaranteed money that he negotiated so that the jets did not have to give him a bonus for his extension. It makes 10X more sense for him to collect his money next year, get cut and find a new deal with his choice of teams in 2014, with the team still owing him 4.5 guaranteed in 2014 from the extension.

This is a guy who may never get to play as a starter again in his career, He does not even have the 5 years to be vested into the pension. There is a better chance that a piano falls on him.

[WestCoastOffensive]

Originally Posted by southparkcpa

Mangini may have the personality of a pencil..but so does BB, Tomlin and a few others. I simply believe Mangini could have won 10 games in 2009 and 11 in 2010.

No. It was discussed at the time; Mangenius was exposed for poor coaching decisions. He did expect a lot and was a hell of a disciplinarian; I could miss that.

[PatsFanTX]

Originally Posted by crasherino

I think the biggest problem with Mangini is that he tried too hard to be Bellichek. He hadn't really experienced much else. But, Bellichek is a unique personality. He's a curmuddgeon but it works for him. He's a salty, arrogant ahole, but that's generally who he is. Plus, he has that dry sense of humor that comes out when you'd least expect it.

Mangini, instead of being true to his own personality and develop his own style of leadership (which he should have borrowed SOME from BB), thought that he had to be unnecessarily sneaky and evasive like his mentor. It didn't work for him. On occasion, when his true personality came out, he was a funny, charismatic guy. But his overarching persona was a secretive grouch and, unlike BB, he never earned the right to act like that.

Great analysis crash, you are spot on.

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by patman

The guy is owed 17 mill from the jets. This is about 40% of all the money he would have made in his career. Why would he ever take a pay cut from guaranteed money that he negotiated so that the jets did not have to give him a bonus for his extension. It makes 10X more sense for him to collect his money next year, get cut and find a new deal with his choice of teams in 2014, with the team still owing him 4.5 guaranteed in 2014 from the extension.

This is a guy who may never get to play as a starter again in his career, He does not even have the 5 years to be vested into the pension. There is a better chance that a piano falls on him.

Is he owed $17 million more guaranteed? I'm not so sure about that. My recollection is that he was basically guaranteed this year and next with his extension.

So, going in to 2013, he has ~$8M coming to him, guaranteed. If the Jets agree to eat $3M perhaps some team will take him. At that point, the Jets are responsible for that $3m (I guess they can structure it as a RB if they want) and whatever prorated portion of his SB is - the new team would be responsible for the $5m plus his contract going forward.

I don't think there is any additional guaranteed money there beyond the 2013 salary.

[patman]

Originally Posted by crasherino

Is he owed $17 million more guaranteed? I'm not so sure about that. My recollection is that he was basically guaranteed this year and next with his extension.

So, going in to 2013, he has ~$8M coming to him, guaranteed. If the Jets agree to eat $3M perhaps some team will take him. At that point, the Jets are responsible for that $3m (I guess they can structure it as a RB if they want) and whatever prorated portion of his SB is - the new team would be responsible for the $5m plus his contract going forward.

I don't think there is any additional guaranteed money there beyond the 2013 salary.

he is guaranteed 8.5 next year, The jets are also responsible for 8 mill total of un-amortized bonus for those two years. That money will hit the cap even if Sanchez does get hit by a falling piano.

Sorry I was confused with the cap hit over the next two years with his salary.

Now if we suspend reality for a min we can look at a possible trade that does not cost Sanchez any of his guaranteed money and save the jets cap space.

The 8.5 salarY is converted to a 2013 guaranteed roster bonus paid on day 10 of the league year but is full guaranteed if he is traded. The jets trade Sanchez to the Kalamazoo Short Buses for a fifth rd pick on the first day of the league year. The 8 mill of un-amoritzed bonus hits the jets 2013 cap, but since his existing cap hit is 12.8 mil the jets save almost 5 mill from the 2013 cap

Saves the jets cap space but the new team is paying Sanchez 8.5 mill plus his min salary for next year. Now if Rex has pictures of that other GM playing with his wife feet???

[crasherino]

Originally Posted by patman

he is guaranteed 8.5 next year, The jets are also responsible for 8 mill total of un-amortized bonus for those two years. That money will hit the cap even if Sanchez does get hit by a falling piano.

Sorry I was confused with the cap hit over the next two years with his salary.

Now if we suspend reality for a min we can look at a possible trade that does not cost Sanchez any of his guaranteed money and save the jets cap space.

The 8.5 salarY is converted to a 2013 guaranteed roster bonus paid on day 10 of the league year but is full guaranteed if he is traded. The jets trade Sanchez to the Kalamazoo Short Buses for a fifth rd pick on the first day of the league year. The 8 mill of un-amoritzed bonus hits the jets 2013 cap, but since his existing cap hit is 12.8 mil the jets save almost 5 mill from the 2013 cap

Saves the jets cap space but the new team is paying Sanchez 8.5 mill plus his min salary for next year. Now if Rex has pictures of that other GM playing with his wife feet???

It was an $8 million SB, 2 of which was allocated to the 2012 year. So, now we are dealing with $6 million of an unamortized SB. If the Jets agree to eat $3 million of the $8.5 million guaranteed salary, the Jets now have $9 million in dead money that they can spread over 2013 and 2014 - $4.5 million each. Is that palatable for them? I dunno....perhaps.

On the flip side, Sanchez is effectively on a 1 yr/$5.5 million deal as he is cuttable after 2013. That's obviously high for a backup, but at least a team is getting a QB who has been to the playoffs and, more than anything else, could use a change of scenery. Does that warrant a team to take a gamble on a slightly longer contract to buy some security? Probably not, but its a possibility.

Bottom line, I don't think he gets traded, but its not out of the realm of possibility. Having that much dead money hurts for sure, but with sanchez, its not just about money. If they can find a viable alternative, they may simply want/need him off the team.

[Choon328]

I think the best thing for the Jets is for any QB on the roster right now to fail when given an opportunity. That way we can move on and find the right guy. The only thing any of the backup QB's having success would do is delay the inevitable.

[KR]

Originally Posted by crasherino

It was an $8 million SB, 2 of which was allocated to the 2012 year. So, now we are dealing with $6 million of an unamortized SB. If the Jets agree to eat $3 million of the $8.5 million guaranteed salary, the Jets now have $9 million in dead money that they can spread over 2013 and 2014 - $4.5 million each. Is that palatable for them? I dunno....perhaps.

On the flip side, Sanchez is effectively on a 1 yr/$5.5 million deal as he is cuttable after 2013. That's obviously high for a backup, but at least a team is getting a QB who has been to the playoffs and, more than anything else, could use a change of scenery. Does that warrant a team to take a gamble on a slightly longer contract to buy some security? Probably not, but its a possibility.

Bottom line, I don't think he gets traded, but its not out of the realm of possibility. Having that much dead money hurts for sure, but with sanchez, its not just about money. If they can find a viable alternative, they may simply want/need him off the team.

Good post. And I believe that's exactly what's going to happen.

Sanchez is done here. It will be tebow, McElroy, a trade or draft pick that everyone will look to be starting for us next year.

Mark is going to want to start somewhere. There is surely 1-2 coaches that are arrogant enough to think they can coach him up. That's when mark will be willing to compromise.

Chances are he's going to be traded on draft day...