Report: US Could Face Massive Physician Shortage Under Obamacare

[Ernie]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

Can you back this statement up with data? Or did you just pull this out of the sky?

http://news.investors.com/091509-506...-overhaul.aspx

And I provided it to you politely, not with a smug attitude as you showed toward me. Good thoughts.

[WestCoastOffensive]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

As a physician I have a selfish reason to want to push tort reform. But the reality is tort reform has a very small effect if any on the nations health care costs. This has been studied extensively with the best studies coming from the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical practice. I advise you to take a look at their studies, start with the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care.

Additionally, when you look at the states with tort reform enacted, ie. Texas, where costs were not reduced.

If you are serious about reducing Health Care Costs then we need to look at cutting out wateful medical practices. I would start with end of life care where we spend 40% of Medicare dollars on a persons last month of life.

You doctors get a bad rap for this in bold.

Anyway, EOL discussions should provide a great way for Republicans to filibuster; they can get their anti abortion gang involved; create a whole new distraction to slow down the good guys from getting anything done.

[PlumberKhan]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

As a physician I have a selfish reason to want to push tort reform. But the reality is tort reform has a very small effect if any on the nations health care costs. This has been studied extensively with the best studies coming from the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical practice. I advise you to take a look at their studies, start with the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care.

Additionally, when you look at the states with tort reform enacted, ie. Texas, where costs were not reduced.

If you are serious about reducing Health Care Costs then we need to look at cutting out wateful medical practices. I would start with end of life care where we spend 40% of Medicare dollars on a persons last month of life.

Bingo.
Colorado has the most stringent tort reform...but rank 8th nationwide on health care costs.

Tort reform is a dog whistle.


Sent from my 8.6 acre property with 4 bedroom house with waterfront views and low utility costs because of the gas well on my property using fireworks...

[HessStation]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

Yeah, exactly

LOL *shrugs*

[kennyo7]

Originally Posted by Ernie

http://news.investors.com/091509-506...-overhaul.aspx

And I provided it to you politely, not with a smug attitude as you showed toward me. Good thoughts.

This is your evidence?
A 3 year old survey stating that 45% of physicians would CONSIDER early retirement if Obamacare passes?

Problem is the stats dont agree with your assertion. Per AAMC, the number of applicant to US medical schools in 2011 was at an all time high. A trend that has been continuing since 2000. If Obamacare is scaring people away from medicine, why are more people applying to medical school?

Whats the statistics in the number of physicians actually taking early retirement? Not the number who would consider early retirement. Give us the actual numbers of those who did retire early and then we can talk.

[kennyo7]

Originally Posted by HessStation

LOL *shrugs*

Clearly, you dont get it

[Ernie]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

This is your evidence?
A 3 year old survey stating that 45% of physicians would CONSIDER early retirement if Obamacare passes?

Problem is the stats dont agree with your assertion. Per AAMC, the number of applicant to US medical schools in 2011 was at an all time high. A trend that has been continuing since 2000. If Obamacare is scaring people away from medicine, why are more people applying to medical school?

Whats the statistics in the number of physicians actually taking early retirement? Not the number who would consider early retirement. Give us the actual numbers of those who did retire early and then we can talk.

Show me the actual numbers of physicians choosing to remain in medicine after this legislation takes effect. You can't until it happens. Kind of like how some argued that the surge in Iraq wouldn't be effective before it occurred.

[HessStation]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

Clearly, you dont get it

Get what? No, I probably don't. I get the jist of Obamacare in the macro sense of things. Like, a little better than the average, dumb American but far less than most or some of the smart people here. You always seem smart to me though. Can you explain.

[Trades]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

This is your evidence?
A 3 year old survey stating that 45% of physicians would CONSIDER early retirement if Obamacare passes?

Problem is the stats dont agree with your assertion. Per AAMC, the number of applicant to US medical schools in 2011 was at an all time high. A trend that has been continuing since 2000. If Obamacare is scaring people away from medicine, why are more people applying to medical school?

Whats the statistics in the number of physicians actually taking early retirement? Not the number who would consider early retirement. Give us the actual numbers of those who did retire early and then we can talk.

Just because people applied doesn't mean that they were qualified. I would also question the stat of "number of applicant to US medical schools". That isn't specifying that they are intending to become doctors. Don't medical schools also train PAs, nurses, dentists, ophthalmologists, etc? Isn't the topic regarding GPs?

[HessStation]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

This is your evidence?
A 3 year old survey stating that 45% of physicians would CONSIDER early retirement if Obamacare passes?

Problem is the stats dont agree with your assertion. Per AAMC, the number of applicant to US medical schools in 2011 was at an all time high. A trend that has been continuing since 2000. If Obamacare is scaring people away from medicine, why are more people applying to medical school?

Whats the statistics in the number of physicians actually taking early retirement? Not the number who would consider early retirement. Give us the actual numbers of those who did retire early and then we can talk.

More importantly what about the impact on Specialists? That's actually much more worrisome to me.

[Winstonbiggs]

Originally Posted by Trades

Just because people applied doesn't mean that they were qualified. I would also question the stat of "number of applicant to US medical schools". That isn't specifying that they are intending to become doctors. Don't medical schools also train PAs, nurses, dentists, ophthalmologists, etc? Isn't the topic regarding GPs?

Last time I went to a hospital which unfortunately has been way more then I would wish on anyone, many of the doctors I see aren't educated in the US. Most of them seem like outstanding doctors.

We are short doctors and will continue to import them as long as doctors wages and living standards in the US are competitive.

[kennyo7]

Originally Posted by Trades

Just because people applied doesn't mean that they were qualified. I would also question the stat of "number of applicant to US medical schools". That isn't specifying that they are intending to become doctors. Don't medical schools also train PAs, nurses, dentists, ophthalmologists, etc? Isn't the topic regarding GPs?

People go to medical school to become doctors. PAs, Nurses, and dentists do not go to medical school. Ophthalmologists go to medical school, optometrists do not.

Whether people applying are qualified is irrelevant in this discussion. The argument was that because of Obamacare fewer people are going into medicine. This is simply untrue.

[kennyo7]

Originally Posted by HessStation

More importantly what about the impact on Specialists? That's actually much more worrisome to me.

Why?
Specialists are far overused in this country (inappropriately mind you)and there is no shortage of specialists. The shortage is with primary care physicians. That should be more worrisome to you.

[HessStation]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

Why?
Specialists are far overused in this country (inappropriately mind you)and there is no shortage of specialists. The shortage is with primary care physicians. That should be more worrisome to you.

Good to know. Seriously. My worry would be deluded talent due to the increase in demand. Waiting lists. If it's free for everyone.

[kennyo7]

Originally Posted by Ernie

Show me the actual numbers of physicians choosing to remain in medicine after this legislation takes effect. You can't until it happens. Kind of like how some argued that the surge in Iraq wouldn't be effective before it occurred.

Parts of the legislation have already taken place. The rest is inevitably going to happen. Every physician knows that. There is no evidence that I am aware of showing that physicians have in large retired "because of Obamacare" . The fact that more people are applying to medical school knowing full well about the realities of Obamacare points against your argument.

[Ernie]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

Parts of the legislation have already taken place. The rest is inevitably going to happen. Every physician knows that. There is no evidence that I am aware of showing that physicians have in large retired "because of Obamacare" . The fact that more people are applying to medical school knowing full well about the realities of Obamacare points against your argument.

I personally know of two physicians who retired from their practices because of this. I think they do teach twice a week or so at the local Med school but dont see any patients.

[parafly]

Originally Posted by Ernie

I personally know of two physicians who retired from their practices because of this. I think they do teach twice a week or so at the local Med school but dont see any patients.

I personally know two people who just became doctors after finishing medical school. Anecdotal evidence proves nothing.

[Axil]

Originally Posted by kennyo7

Why?
Specialists are far overused in this country (inappropriately mind you)and there is no shortage of specialists. The shortage is with primary care physicians. That should be more worrisome to you.

"Can you back this statement up with data? Or did you just pull this out of the sky?"

[kennyo7]

Originally Posted by Axil

"Can you back this statement up with data? Or did you just pull this out of the sky?"

Sure, there is plenty of data. In an ideal medical system there will 70% primary care physicians and 30% specialists. In the USA that percentage is reversed.

I suggest you read The Physician Workforce Crisis: Where is The Evidence? By David Goodman, MD in the March 2005 edition of Health Affairs.

Or try this
http://www.ruralmedicaleducation.org...pecialists.htm

The other problem is the distribution of physicians in the US is heavily skewed where certain areas have too many physicians while others are grossly underserved

[parafly]

I'm genuinely curious ... what exactly in Obamacare would cause a doctor to want to leave the profession?