Football Outsiders: "ANY GIVEN SUNDAY"

[Batmans A Scientist]

FO Usually runs a article about a big upset here: But for whatever reason, they chose the Jets vs. Rams. It's interesting because there is a lot of praise for Rex Ryan, and a lot of shots taken at the Jets overall talent (which is a position I actually agree with).

http://footballoutsiders.com/any-giv...jets-over-rams

I know that it's really easy to scapegoat coaches for the problems of the team. I also know that Ryan's boastful banter and inability to keep the Jets locker room in order is a big problem, both because the players don't always seem focused and because it seems like the media circus never ends. But I came away from this game marveling at how great of a job he was doing schematically. Top-to-bottom right now, without Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes, the Jets might have one of the five least-talented teams in the league. They don't have a single above-average skill player, they don't have a single quality pass rusher, and outside of Antonio Cromartie, their secondary is pretty weak. Yet they're still 4-6, within hailing distance of the playoffs in a down AFC.

Although he had more instantaneous success, Ryan reminds me of Gary Kubiak in a way. For years, Kubiak managed to build quality offenses without much investment on the offensive side of the ball. Heck, even when he was saddled with David Carr, he realized Carr's limitations fast enough to have him lead the league in completion percentage. The fact of the matter was that the defense was coordinated by bad coaches and there were concrete problems in the secondary that were never addressed.

Even despite all the chaos on the defensive side of the ball without Revis, the Jets have the ninth-ranked defense by DVOA going into next week's games. While Ryan definitely has his warts, that's a pretty masterful performance under the circumstances. There are massive problems in New York still: Sanchez has stagnated and his contract is fully guaranteed for next season, Shonn Greene has not panned out, and the Tim Tebow/Tony Sparano Wildcat facade has been all but useless this season. (More on that in a bit.) These are all problems that call for real investment on offense: hiring a renowned offensive mind and spending heavily on new weapons to fix things. Hiring Wade Phillips and signing Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning did wonders for the Texans. It's implausible to think that the Jets will be able to solve all their problems in one offseason like Houston did, but firing Ryan would probably create more problems than solutions.

[SlickBri481]

I think they're dead on. Our D is playing at a pretty high level all things considered. Rex is such a great defensive mind that the idea of firing him already is pretty absurd. We lose him and suddenly we might go back to the years where we couldn't stop anybody on D. I agree that he and the team need to invest more time and resources in the offense, but it's hard to get on Rex for this mess of a season right now (which could turn interesting if we find a way to beat the Pats tomorrow).

[Beerfish]

Letting the coach off the hook when he has a big say in drafting philosophy and personnel decisions on the team is simply not right.

The Jets have poor or ill suited personnel thus it is not the coaches fault.

Who has a large effect on the way the team is built? The coach.

The coach is sticking behind the worst starting Qb in the league.
The coach endorsed drafting a pass rusher and then sticks him as a 3-4 DE.
The coach wanted to go ground and pound.
The coach hired a lousy OC.

Anyone that thinks Rex has not had a huge hand in the make up of this team is out to lunch. He and Tanny deserve to go for hitching their careers to a sub par QB and refusing over the years to give themselves any alternative.

[MDL_JET]

He just needs to stop thinking you can win in this league with ground and pound. If he can let that mentality go then I think things can improve.

Then again hard to commit to the passing game when your qb is Sanchez.

[Batmans A Scientist]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

Letting the coach off the hook when he has a big say in drafting philosophy and personnel decisions on the team is simply not right.

The Jets have poor or ill suited personnel thus it is not the coaches fault.

Who has a large effect on the way the team is built? The coach.

The coach is sticking behind the worst starting Qb in the league.
The coach endorsed drafting a pass rusher and then sticks him as a 3-4 DE.
The coach wanted to go ground and pound.
The coach hired a lousy OC.

Anyone that thinks Rex has not had a huge hand in the make up of this team is out to lunch. He and Tanny deserve to go for hitching their careers to a sub par QB and refusing over the years to give themselves any alternative.

That's a fair point, and at the end of the day, it might be what gets him fired. But there's a running idea that he's not a good coach, which I don't agree with. He made his bed along with Tanny and Sanchez, but the talent isn't there.

[Maury77]

I don't agree with their assesment re the secondary

[Beerfish]

Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist

That's a fair point, and at the end of the day, it might be what gets him fired. But there's a running idea that he's not a good coach, which I don't agree with. He made his bed along with Tanny and Sanchez, but the talent isn't there.

I think he's an excellent defensive coordinator, has the possibility to be a fine head coach but is a sub par one at this point.

[Savage69]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

I think he's an excellent defensive coordinator, has the possibility to be a fine head coach but is a sub par one at this point.

How good was BB as a HC till his 2nd shot with the Pats and getting Brady?? His first year with Bledsoe he was 5-11..

[Beerfish]

Originally Posted by Savage69

How good was BB as a HC till his 2nd shot with the Pats and getting Brady?? His first year with Bledsoe he was 5-11..

That is irrelevant to me and follows along the same lines as the people excusing Sanchez because Eli once sucked and then became a super bowl winning QB.

If Rex learns that he is the HEAD coach and not the DC he will progress and become a good coach. Not being aware of big problems on the team is not acceptable. Seeming to favor the defense in his prep and his time is following in his dads footsteps.

He has to take a step back from the team, make the tough personnel decisions and not look back.

[TheMo]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

That is irrelevant to me and follows along the same lines as the people excusing Sanchez because Eli once sucked and then became a super bowl winning QB.

If Rex learns that he is the HEAD coach and not the DC he will progress and become a good coach. Not being aware of big problems on the team is not acceptable. Seeming to favor the defense in his prep and his time is following in his dads footsteps.

He has to take a step back from the team, make the tough personnel decisions and not look back.

I think a new GM could offer guidance and help him grow as a coach. Also I don't think that he should be involved in personnel all that much. Just coach and have a vision for your team, let the GM do the work of finding the right pieces to fit your joint vision.

[Batmans A Scientist]

I think the Gary Kubiak comparison is an interesting one.

[crasherino]

This team is as good as its Oline and QB. If those two hold up, they can be very good.

The defense would benefit from increased offensive production immeasurably. They hold their own for a while, but after having to be perfect on account of an inept offense, they falter. They are a very good, but not elite unit. You can't realistically expect them to play flawless the entire game.

[suprjet]

It's a good article. However, the team is constructed in Ryan's vision: a team with elite defense that can run the ball. And it's obvious the value was placed on defense as we drafted D in the 1st round all his drafts so far -- two 5 techniques in a row (a position I feel can be filled later in the drafts) and a nickle CB 3 drafts ago.

We need to shift the emphasis to having an explosive offense (great OL, WR, RB) and a pass rush. Obviously since the league has moved to a passing league, you need to be able to pass and rush the passer.

I like Tanny but think he is out of his league on personnel decisions. I believe the solution is bringing in someone that specializes in personnel as the Assistant or Co-GM and let Tanny focus on the salary cap and contracts while this guy eats and sleeps personnel. Also key is that this person has the overall decision-making approval on draft day. We also need to draft a QB. We can't afford to miss on draft day.

[GreenWave]

Originally Posted by MDL_JET

He just needs to stop thinking you can win in this league with ground and pound. If he can let that mentality go then I think things can improve.

Then again hard to commit to the passing game when your qb is Sanchez.

I agree with this, but I think we have to ask - how committed is Rex to ground and pound? We all heard coming into '11 how the Jets were going to open up the offense, and Rex sat back while Schotty allowed Sanchez to drop back unsuccessfully again and again.

I think this is a good article and it's fair to at least argue that Rex has been undone by (what looks to be) a poor choice in franchise QB and equally bad selections for OC. Have to admit that the Kubiak comparison is interesting, in that he was stagnant for four years before Phillips and has now had a top-tier squad in consecutive years with no sign of slowing down.

Originally Posted by Maury77

I don't agree with their assesment re the secondary

I agree. Kyle Wilson is good for at least one bad play per game, but he's looked much better from the Pats game forward. And the safeties, while not exactly big playmakers, are huge upgrades from last year and have not been liabilities.

[Tony Danza]

I think Rex is dedicated and learning on the job and I am more than okay seeing him stay for the next few years as long as he keeps adapting and progressing as a coach. Sure this roster has holes but that is supposed to be helped by Tanny who seems to skate on all the issues time and time again.

His ability to finally shut up before a Pats game seems like a step in the right direction.

[Beerfish]

Originally Posted by crasherino

This team is as good as its Oline and QB. If those two hold up, they can be very good.

The defense would benefit from increased offensive production immeasurably. They hold their own for a while, but after having to be perfect on account of an inept offense, they falter. They are a very good, but not elite unit. You can't realistically expect them to play flawless the entire game.

The thing is they had the opportunity to turn it into an elite unit from a good one 2 or 3 years ago. the big weakness was at safety which they finally addressed this year and a pass rushing olb which they have STILL ignored. Rex seems to think he can get to elite without having a few key playmakers.

Oh and the only reason we are ground and pound is because our QB sucks donkey balls and we have no WR's.