Stephen Hill today

[Scoop24]

Originally Posted by southside

Dude, really? You're calling me out and you don't even know that Reggie Ball was Calvin Johnson's QB and a SR in 2006? Really?

SMH.

Accident by me tevin Washington who is ever worse than ball.. I was actually gonna put Nesbit . But I couldn't remember .

[southside]

Originally Posted by GreeneWarMachine

You don't know anything about Georgia Tech do you? They run the triple-option offense and very rarely do they throw the ball. Here's the OVERALL pass attempt TOTALS for EVERY georgia tech qb for the ENTIRE season by year during Hill's tenure:

2011:167 pass attempts
2010:168 pass attempts
2009:168 pass attempts

Only Army, Navy, and Air Force had less pass attempts (in the FBS) in those years. Good luck trying to get catches when they never throw the ball...

Also, D. Thomas was hogging up 46 passes for Hill's freshman year.

I will say I had Thomas' stats mixed up with his highschool stats.

That being said, 120 catches for 2,339 yards and 14 TDs in his career at GT.

2007: 35 receptions, 558 yards, 4TDs (FR).
2008: 39 receptions, 627 yards, 3TDs (SO).
2009: 46 receptions, 1154 yards, 8TDs (JR).

So, in the same amount of pass attempts at GT he caught twice as many passes as a JR. He was redshirted btw so he had another year of eligibility. So he played as many years as Stephen Hill so there goes the whole JR/SR argument. That was partly my fault. Here are Hill's career stats.

2009: 6 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD (FR).
2010: 15 receptions, 291 yards, 3 TDs (SO).
2011: 28 receptions, 820 yards, 5 TDs (JR).

Stop comparing him to Thomas. Stop talking about the pass attempts because Thomas did twice as much as Hill under the same amount of attempts and put up nearly double the TDs. Not the same player. No excuses. He has a lot to work to do on top of that. Hill had 1 season, ONE SEASON, where he put up BIG yards because he's a one dimensional receiver. Thomas had a consistent career FR-JR year. He caught more receptions as a FR than Hill did as a JR. There's a lot of reasons for me to believe Hill is a flash in the pan bust player. I'm not basing this off of anything other than what he's shown in his entire career.

[Rexipus Rex]

Originally Posted by GreeneWarMachine

You don't know anything about Georgia Tech do you? They run the triple-option offense and very rarely do they throw the ball. Here's the OVERALL pass attempt TOTALS for EVERY georgia tech qb for the ENTIRE season by year during Hill's tenure:

2011:167 pass attempts
2010:168 pass attempts
2009:168 pass attempts

Only Army, Navy, and Air Force had less pass attempts (in the FBS) in those years. Good luck trying to get catches when they never throw the ball...

Also, D. Thomas was hogging up 46 passes for Hill's freshman year.

Yep, meanwhile people "oooh" and "ahhhh" at Justin Blackmon because he caught 121 passes last year at OK State. What's neglected is the fact that OK State had a 40:60 run to pass ratio; Hill, on the other hand, played on a team with a 81:19 run to pass ratio. So when you look at it, Blackmon only accounted for closer to a quarter of his team's receptions while Hill accounted for over a third of his team's receptions.

My point is that it is hard to individualize and grade receivers when the system they play in drastically affects their gross numbers. In many ways, Hill was a more efficient player last year in college than Blackmon (higher percentage of respective team's receptions, higher YPR, higher percentage of team's receiving TDs, etc.). At the same token, Blackmon's volume of reps in the passing game has him more polished and NFL ready.

[southside]

Originally Posted by Rexipus Rex

Yep, meanwhile people "oooh" and "ahhhh" at Justin Blackmon because he caught 121 passes last year at OK State. What's neglected is the fact that OK State had a 40:60 run to pass ratio; Hill, on the other hand, played on a team with a 81:19 run to pass ratio. So when you look at it, Blackmon only accounted for closer to a quarter of his team's receptions while Hill accounted for over a third of his team's receptions.

My point is that it is hard to individualize and grade receivers when the system they play in drastically affects their gross numbers. In many ways, Hill was a more efficient player last year in college than Blackmon (higher percentage of respective team's receptions, higher YPR, higher percentage of team's receiving TDs, etc.). At the same token, Blackmon's volume of reps in the passing game has him more polished and NFL ready.

That's great. But 28 receptions out of 167 attempts? Compared to Thomas who put up 46 in 168 attempts. He also put up 8 TDs and had a steady career. Hill was a JR that had red flags all over him. I'm not the one that wants to compare the two either. You guys do however. And there's no comparison at all. Thomas was always a better receiver than Hill. He had better production with the same offense and same amount of pass attempts. Thomas' production in the NFL or his growing pains do not equate to what Hill will produce.

[GreeneWarMachine]

Originally Posted by southside

I will say I had Thomas' stats mixed up with his highschool stats.

That being said, 120 catches for 2,339 and 14 TDs in his career at GT.

2007: 35 receptions, 558 yards, 4TDs (FR).
2008: 39 receptions, 627 yards, 3TDs (SO).
2009: 46 receptions, 1154 yards, 8TDs (JR).

So, in the same amount of pass attempts at GT he caught twice as many passes as a JR. He was redshirted btw so he had another year of eligibility. So he played as many years as Stephen Hill so there goes the whole JR/SR argument. That was partly my fault. Here are Hill's career stats.

2009: 6 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD (FR).
2010: 15 receptions, 291 yards, 3 TDs (SO).
2011: 28 receptions, 820 yards, 5 TDs (JR).

Stop comparing him to Thomas. Stop talking about the pass attempts because Thomas did twice as much as Hill under the same amount of attempts and put up nearly double the TDs. Not the same player. No excuses. He has a lot to work to do on top of that.

Incorrect. GT had 363 pass attempts in 2007, of which Thomas was obviously a beneficiary. Couple that with the fact that in 2007 the ball was better spread but since then has been mostly concentrated on one player each year then you can barely even count 2009 for hill as all of the targets were to Thomas. But you're right, Thomas is not the same player as Hill, because Thomas has 2 more years in the NFL.

Funnily enough, Thomas has 3 more dropped passes than Hill with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

[revischrist]

Originally Posted by southside

Lets be honest here guys:

In his entire 3 year career at GT he has 49 catches for 1,248 yards.

That to me screams that a player couldn't get open on a consistent basis unless he was running a fly pattern. High yards per catch, low amount of receptions. His stats indicate he's a one dimensional player.

You can't watch college football, specifically Georgia Tech, and make that comment. They are a triple option attack. They don't run normal NFL routes. Its basically, run, run, run, run, run, fake run deep pass, run, run, run run run etc...

He is raw and needs time to develop. I expect a much better player next year, but I don't expect us to see his full potential until the end of next year or even the start of year 3.

[GreeneWarMachine]

Originally Posted by southside

That's great. But 28 receptions out of 167 attempts? Compared to Thomas who put up 46 in 168 attempts. He also put up 8 TDs and had a steady career. Hill was a JR that had red flags all over him. I'm not the one that wants to compare the two either. You guys do however. And there's no comparison at all. Thomas was always a better receiver than Hill. He had better production with the same offense and same amount of pass attempts. Thomas' production in the NFL or his growing pains do not equate to what Hill will produce.

The comparison is less about the player, it's more about the system. You are attempting to use Hill's college stats against him as if the system he was in gave him all the opportunities to put up big numbers. The fact of the matter is that he is improving to the point where it has become noticeable to fans, something that a player who sucks, as you so claim, would not be capable of doing.

[rextilleon]

I think that Mr. Hill has the ability to become a decent receiver. I think its a matter of coaching and his work ethic.

[southside]

Originally Posted by GreeneWarMachine

Incorrect. GT had 363 pass attempts in 2007, of which Thomas was obviously a beneficiary. Couple that with the fact that in 2007 the ball was better spread but since then has been mostly concentrated on one player each year then you can barely even count 2009 for hill as all of the targets were to Thomas. But you're right, Thomas is not the same player as Hill, because Thomas has 2 more years in the NFL.

Funnily enough, Thomas has 3 more dropped passes than Hill with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

Originally Posted by GreeneWarMachine

The comparison is less about the player, it's more about the system. You are attempting to use Hill's college stats against him as if the system he was in gave him all the opportunities to put up big numbers. The fact of the matter is that he is improving to the point where it has become noticeable to fans, something that a player who sucks, as you so claim, would not be capable of doing.

You provided the stats for 2009 pal, not me. I'm saying in 2009, WHEN HE WAS A JR, WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF PASS ATTEMPTS AS STEPHEN HILL HAD AS A JR, HE CAUGHT 46 RECEPTIONS FOR 8 TDS.

You people make me want to punch myself in the face. Now I really am leaving this conversation.

I'll say this, I'm not comparing Hill with ANYONE but himself. YOU ALL want to compare him to others. I DO NOT!

Hill has 49 career receptions in 3 years of college. He has a high yard per reception average. He was by all accounts a very very raw player coming into the NFL. He has shown inferior WR ability as a Rookie WR. He drops passes, he hardly gets open, he is often not on the same page as the WR or Offense in general. He has 21 receptions for 252 yards this season. 7 of which he's started. I think he sucks. Have a nice day.

[Rexipus Rex]

Originally Posted by southside

That's great. But 28 receptions out of 167 attempts? Compared to Thomas who put up 46 in 168 attempts. He also put up 8 TDs and had a steady career. Hill was a JR that had red flags all over him. I'm not the one that wants to compare the two either. You guys do however. And there's no comparison at all. Thomas was always a better receiver than Hill. He had better production with the same offense and same amount of pass attempts. Thomas' production in the NFL or his growing pains do not equate to what Hill will produce.

Wait, haha.

For the record, back in the summer I compared every rookie WR taken in the top three rounds from April -- Blackmon, Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, and Reuben Randle. Of the 9 WRs, Hill ranked 3rd in % of respective team's receptions, 1st in yards per reception, and 3rd in % of respective team's receiving TDs. Those were the best combined metrics of all the rookie receivers. Football Outsiders uses a similar predictor that also encompasses Combine numbers.

The point of that is to show how good a player is when his number is called. And when Hill's number was called in college, he was pretty darn effective. You cannot hold it against a guy when his team passes it 19% of the time.

Compared to other rookie receivers coming out, those metrics are pretty good for the guy who saw five receivers get drafted before him.

But let's go back to Thomas...

If Demaryius Thomas's production as a senior was so impressive and means so much more than Hill's, who left college before his senior year, then why are both putting up staggeringly similar rookie receiving numbers?

You cannot have it both ways, southside.

[Rexipus Rex]

Originally Posted by GreeneWarMachine

The comparison is less about the player, it's more about the system. You are attempting to use Hill's college stats against him as if the system he was in gave him all the opportunities to put up big numbers. The fact of the matter is that he is improving to the point where it has become noticeable to fans, something that a player who sucks, as you so claim, would not be capable of doing.

+1

[GreeneWarMachine]

Originally Posted by southside

You provided the stats for 2009 pal, not me. I'm saying in 2009, WHEN HE WAS A JR, WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF PASS ATTEMPTS AS STEPHEN HILL HAD AS A JR, HE CAUGHT 46 RECEPTIONS FOR 8 TDS.

You people make me want to punch myself in the face. Now I really am leaving this conversation.

I'll say this, I'm not comparing Hill with ANYONE but himself. YOU ALL want to compare him to others. I DO NOT!

Hill has 49 career receptions in 3 years of college. He has a high yard per reception average. He was by all accounts a very very raw player coming into the NFL. He has shown inferior WR ability as a Rookie WR. He drops passes, he hardly gets open, he is often not on the same page as the WR or Offense in general. He has 21 receptions for 252 yards this season. 7 of which he's started. I think he sucks. Have a nice day.

I see my error, I misread. However, look at the receptions for all players of that year (2009): Thomas caught 46 passes. The closest guy? Peeples with 8. That's a margin of 38 catches. Since then the highest margin is 15 (held by Hill). If Hill only got two years of opportunity in a triple-option system of course he's not gonna have superstar production. So for him to come into NY with Mark Sanchez as his QB, be thrown into a starting position and to still manage that production while missing two games is far from sucky.

He is second only to Kendall Wright in Touchdowns for rookie WRs selected before him, and that's on 42 less targets. He has as many touchdowns as Blackmon, with 38 less targets. He has 2 more TDs and only 30 less yards than Michael Floyd with 6 less targets. Again, all of this while missing two games. 37% of his catches are for first down second only to Wright who has 37.5%. Where has he shown inferiority as a rookie WR? If anything he produces more on his targets than most. PLUS he doesn't benefit from having solid number ones such as Fitzgerald or Kenny Britt to soak up coverages, all he has is Kerley. You're either really stubborn or just a massive hater...

[FijiJet]

Originally Posted by ryu79

but that game happened?

This unreasonable fellow's obviously a troll

[ryu79]

Originally Posted by FijiJet

This unreasonable fellow's obviously a troll

hey!

[jp5002]

Originally Posted by Scoop24

So he left early didn't have 80 catch season. And still putting up similar numbers to Thomas rookie year?

Listen, I don't have a dog in this fight, it just seemed like people were missing his point, so I thought I would explain it for you guys. Personally I have no idea what Hill may become. The only problem I have is that if the raiders made the pick, everybody would be making fun of them and saying typical raiders pick. IMO I dont like combine warriors. Hill was probably a 4th round pick before the combine, maybe even later. Of course, it's justifiable that he moved up, because speed is important. It would just be nice if he had a more accomplished college resume. It's not all his fault, but I would have to think that if he was so talented they would have found ways to get the ball in his hands more.

The way I see it, he can have a succesful career if they ever get him a qb because of his physical skills, as can most WR. If he's always stuck with somebody mediocre, most likely he will never live up to his potential. But there are countless examples of WR that were drafted based purely on physical skills (height, speed) and not production. If you believe he was drafted based on anything else (production, hands, route running) I think your mistaken.

[eaglenj]

Originally Posted by jp5002

Listen, I don't have a dog in this fight, it just seemed like people were missing his point, so I thought I would explain it for you guys. Personally I have no idea what Hill may become. The only problem I have is that if the raiders made the pick, everybody would be making fun of them and saying typical raiders pick. IMO I dont like combine warriors. Hill was probably a 4th round pick before the combine, maybe even later. Of course, it's justifiable that he moved up, because speed is important. It would just be nice if he had a more accomplished college resume. It's not all his fault, but I would have to think that if he was so talented they would have found ways to get the ball in his hands more.

The way I see it, he can have a succesful career if they ever get him a qb because of his physical skills, as can most WR. If he's always stuck with somebody mediocre, most likely he will never live up to his potential. But there are countless examples of WR that were drafted based purely on physical skills (height, speed) and not production. If you believe he was drafted based on anything else (production, hands, route running) I think your mistaken.

There is a monumental difference in taking DHB at 7 overall and us taking hill in the second round both in pick value and cap amount invested.

[jp5002]

I agree with that, but DHB was probably a mid to late first round pick before the combine. He moved up to top 10 (on the raiders board anyways). Hill was maybe a 4th or so before the combine, moved up to a 2nd (on most boards). The only point with the raiders is that they're known to draft based on measurables and that's kinda what drafting Hill was based on. I'm not saying the pick was good or bad, I just don't like combine warriors and IMO that's what Hill was. However, if I was a Jets fan i would be excited as hell. It's not every day you get a guy with those measurables. He also seems like a good kid and a hard worker, those are intangibles that you can't teach, and likely helped his draft stock as well.

Now to go in a different direction, I think southside is partly right, but not exactly being fair. No, Hill isn't good at the moment, but that's not what this thread was based on. It was based on him improving. I don't think it's fair to expect Hill to be good right off the bat. Most recievers it takes a few years (of course there are exceptions). I think Hill is a risky, boom or bust type of pick, but he's going to need some developing, and can't be expected to be great right away. I don't think you can call any player a bust after their first season. So to southside, yes he is bad right now, but I don't think it is reasonable to expect him to be good right now. All you are looking for is improvement and it sounds like he has been albeit slowly.