Prediction Regarding the Future of the NFL Offense - Jets Insider.com Forums

Warfish · 01-22-2013, 11:39 AM

My Prediction is Thus:

In 5 Years Time, the "Read Option" style offense that is so much the rage in the NFL will be viewed the same as the "Run and Shoot" offenses of years past.

I.e. Pure "Read Option" Teams will not exist. Small aspects of the "Read Option" will live on as individual plays or formations in Pro-Style Dropback Passer-based Offensive Systems.

The combination of injuries to running QB's, and the inevitable reactionary evolution of NFL Defenses will render the pure Read Option unproductive within that 5 year period.

At the end of this period the NFL will be shifting strongly back to Pass-first QB's along traditional lines.

Teams still looking foror late-developing a Read Option QB in 2018 will be far behind the MFL's cyclical curve, and will not succeed.

Monsterxman · 01-22-2013, 11:59 AM

Agree, the better franchises who routinely make the playoffs year in and year out will always have one thing in common…

A classic drop-back QB.

PMarsico9 · 01-22-2013, 12:00 PM

Prediction:

Read Option will be viable for years since it will allow more QB's to reach the level necessary to increase the true title competitors in the NFL.

You have to have a QB capable of winning games. Even if Kaepernick is a 55-58% completion percentage guy for the rest of his career, his running ability will keep him and the Niners viable.

Likewise, traditional offenses will continue to be prolific for teams that have a QB who can execute them at a high level.

I don't view it as a fad simply because there's no indication on how it can legitimately be stopped, since so much is predicated by your QB's athleticism. By a new infusion of 3-4 safeties capable of spying the QB and covering TE's, RB's, and WR's?

Those guys are all All-Pro's. There's simply not enough of them. Nor will there be. Hell we keep hearing about how genius Pete Carroll is for drafting huge corner backs and then we find out they were both on 'roids and they both get scorched by Jones and White in the playoffs.

I do think we will see new value placed on fast LB's and pass-catching RB's though who can block.

sec.101row23 · 01-22-2013, 12:03 PM

Agreed. The QB is the most coveted, highly paid and hard to find position in football. The rules of football are designed to do everything to protect him IN THE POCKET. It is fine to run some plays when these QBs are young and getting acclimated to the league, but to expose them over time is foolish. There is and will continue to be no substitute for a guy who can sit in the pocket and sling it.

SlickBri481 · 01-22-2013, 12:20 PM

Read option is money. It will continue to work. Whether or not the QB can stay healthy is another thing. The scheme itself works well.

GreenReaper · 01-22-2013, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PMarsico9

Prediction:

Read Option will be viable for years since it will allow more QB's to reach the level necessary to increase the true title competitors in the NFL.

You have to have a QB capable of winning games. Even if Kaepernick is a 55-58% completion percentage guy for the rest of his career, his running ability will keep him and the Niners viable.

Likewise, traditional offenses will continue to be prolific for teams that have a QB who can execute them at a high level.

I don't view it as a fad simply because there's no indication on how it can legitimately be stopped, since so much is predicated by your QB's athleticism. By a new infusion of 3-4 safeties capable of spying the QB and covering TE's, RB's, and WR's?

Those guys are all All-Pro's. There's simply not enough of them. Nor will there be. Hell we keep hearing about how genius Pete Carroll is for drafting huge corner backs and then we find out they were both on 'roids and they both get scorched by Jones and White in the playoffs.

I do think we will see new value placed on fast LB's and pass-catching RB's though who can block.

I haven't finalized a strong opinion on this yet...but I tend to lean in your direction.

Read Option/spread offenses makes it easier for many college teams to compete with the elite ones in fielding potent offenses. Therefore...having those offenses run by a dual threat QB, is a trend that will not fade away from the college game. This will continue to put pressure on NFL teams desperately trying to find the traditional drop back QB.

It is a dilemma. How to solve this? Well...it may simply boil down to a Darwinian adapt...or die solution.

I see NFL teams possibly drafting and stock piling as many as 4-6 dual threat type QBs on their active roster. So that they can compensate for a starter that may get injured, and continue to run their various option style offenses...without much adjustments needed.

I can quickly recall three officially listed WRs that were once QBs. Former Jets Brad Smith...Stucky, and current Jet Kerley. So you can even have these dual threat QBs on the team. But have them simply listed as WRs or RBs. Of course...I'd expect them to be better throwers then these mentioned three...if you seriously want them to QB your team if needed.

And here's a reaction to this dual QB trend...

Pat White plans an NFL comeback
Posted by Mike Florio on January 22, 2013, 9:47 AM EST

With the rise of mobile quarterback, a mobile quarterback from Mobile is back in Mobile in the hopes of attracting the attention of a coach looking for a mobile quarterback.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-nfl-comeback/

I'm sure fans that love Madden, would go for an increase of read and spread option offenses, operated by dual threat QBs. If it puts fannies in seats...sells more PSLs...then the owners and commish will be all for it too.

eaglenj · 01-22-2013, 02:26 PM

I think it is actually a combination of both arguments.

First off, part (stress part)of the reason the read-option is so prevalent today is that we just happened to have an influx of QBs who can actually do it well. Not just Kap, Wilson, RG etc, but Luck is a good enough athlete that Indy can run it as well, and let him gain 8-12 "free" yards every once in a while.

In my opinion what the read-option is going to do is level the playing field in the NFL even more. Before, the only way you were winning was with a QB that was at minimum 6'2, (brees is the only outlier in the last 10 years) strong arm, and who could pick apart a defense that was rushing 4-5 and dropping 6 or so in coverage. You needed tall, dominant WRs that could fight for the ball downfield.

Now, with the threat of the run, it opens up a lot more opportunity for an offense run by a QB that isnt "prototypical" as well as opens things up for smaller, WRs that can gain YAC in space.

I dont believe it will completely revolutionize the game, as their simply are too few QBs that actually can run and throw it like wilson, Kap and RG. And defenses will also devise new ways to stop it....but I do believe every team will be running some type of read-option play at minimum 3-5 times a game.

01-22-2013, 11:39 AM	#1
Warfish JetsInsider.com Legend Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 35,000	Prediction Regarding the Future of the NFL Offense My Prediction is Thus: In 5 Years Time, the "Read Option" style offense that is so much the rage in the NFL will be viewed the same as the "Run and Shoot" offenses of years past. I.e. Pure "Read Option" Teams will not exist. Small aspects of the "Read Option" will live on as individual plays or formations in Pro-Style Dropback Passer-based Offensive Systems. The combination of injuries to running QB's, and the inevitable reactionary evolution of NFL Defenses will render the pure Read Option unproductive within that 5 year period. At the end of this period the NFL will be shifting strongly back to Pass-first QB's along traditional lines. Teams still looking foror late-developing a Read Option QB in 2018 will be far behind the MFL's cyclical curve, and will not succeed.

01-22-2013, 11:59 AM	#2
Monsterxman supercalifragilisticexpialidocious All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 4,075	Agree, the better franchises who routinely make the playoffs year in and year out will always have one thing in common… A classic drop-back QB.

01-22-2013, 12:00 PM	#3
PMarsico9 This pit has no bottom All League Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 2,853	Prediction: Read Option will be viable for years since it will allow more QB's to reach the level necessary to increase the true title competitors in the NFL. You have to have a QB capable of winning games. Even if Kaepernick is a 55-58% completion percentage guy for the rest of his career, his running ability will keep him and the Niners viable. Likewise, traditional offenses will continue to be prolific for teams that have a QB who can execute them at a high level. I don't view it as a fad simply because there's no indication on how it can legitimately be stopped, since so much is predicated by your QB's athleticism. By a new infusion of 3-4 safeties capable of spying the QB and covering TE's, RB's, and WR's? Those guys are all All-Pro's. There's simply not enough of them. Nor will there be. Hell we keep hearing about how genius Pete Carroll is for drafting huge corner backs and then we find out they were both on 'roids and they both get scorched by Jones and White in the playoffs. I do think we will see new value placed on fast LB's and pass-catching RB's though who can block.

01-22-2013, 12:03 PM	#4
sec.101row23 All Pro Join Date: May 2005 Location: Mendham, NJ Posts: 7,877	Agreed. The QB is the most coveted, highly paid and hard to find position in football. The rules of football are designed to do everything to protect him IN THE POCKET. It is fine to run some plays when these QBs are young and getting acclimated to the league, but to expose them over time is foolish. There is and will continue to be no substitute for a guy who can sit in the pocket and sling it.

01-22-2013, 12:20 PM	#5
SlickBri481 Heal up Darrelle... All Pro Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 6,352	Read option is money. It will continue to work. Whether or not the QB can stay healthy is another thing. The scheme itself works well.

01-22-2013, 02:26 PM	#7
eaglenj All League Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,868	I think it is actually a combination of both arguments. First off, part (stress part)of the reason the read-option is so prevalent today is that we just happened to have an influx of QBs who can actually do it well. Not just Kap, Wilson, RG etc, but Luck is a good enough athlete that Indy can run it as well, and let him gain 8-12 "free" yards every once in a while. In my opinion what the read-option is going to do is level the playing field in the NFL even more. Before, the only way you were winning was with a QB that was at minimum 6'2, (brees is the only outlier in the last 10 years) strong arm, and who could pick apart a defense that was rushing 4-5 and dropping 6 or so in coverage. You needed tall, dominant WRs that could fight for the ball downfield. Now, with the threat of the run, it opens up a lot more opportunity for an offense run by a QB that isnt "prototypical" as well as opens things up for smaller, WRs that can gain YAC in space. I dont believe it will completely revolutionize the game, as their simply are too few QBs that actually can run and throw it like wilson, Kap and RG. And defenses will also devise new ways to stop it....but I do believe every team will be running some type of read-option play at minimum 3-5 times a game.