The Current State Of The Jets

[GreenGeek]

Thanks for the analysis (and welcome back). Already I feel better about spending time on the board. The point I most agree with is that you cannot tell (yet) whether they are retooling or rebuilding. If I try to summarize your points:

REBUILDING:

• Young roster with lots of departing vets (likely, but they are not gone yet).
• Uncertain QB situation (for sure).
• New GM brought from outside the organization.

RETOOLING:

• Rex stays.
• "accomplished" O-staff.

Between these choices you seem to decide on RETOOLING driven by Rex's status ("coaching for his life") and the assumption that the entire staff except Idzik leaves if there is a losing season. I would differ on drawing the conclusion. I think we'll know what is going on when we see the moves made during free agency and the draft. If we cut multiple vets whose salaries are damaging the cap, trade down in the draft for more picks, and go for value instead of "home runs" in free agency we are rebuilding. The course to making this a SUCCESSFUL rebuild will then be whether Woody is willing to accept a 2013 poor season to set up a brighter future, or whether he fires everyone in sight.

If I were the new GM, I would explain to Woody that I was hired into a bad situation and that he should EXPECT that the 2013 season will be a tough one as the route to a better future instead of the fuse that sets off the dynamite. So long as he accepts the premise of NOT firing the whole staff after 2013, then I believe that we could be in rebuilding instead of retooling.

Summary:

• We can't tell the intentions of the GM until he starts making some PLAYER moves.
• If the GM is moving to rebuild instead of retool, Woody needs to hold it together for at least a year to allow the process to proceed well.

SAR will explode, but the latter bullet means not firing everyone in sight following the first season of a legitimate rebuild.

[TKasper01]

Originally Posted by YJF

PERCEPTION VS REALITY

The New York Jets are widely believed to be a losing franchise. As of January 12th 2013, It's been 44 years since the Jets have won a superbowl. There have been many ups and a lot more downs since that ground breaking and league changing championship in 1969. Throughout the 70's and much of the 80's, The Jets became an irrelevant franchise. Very few winning seasons or playoff seasons over the course of two decades. There were slight hiccups along the way where the Jets made an impact and went on runs towards a championship(1982) but there was a lot more losing than winning in those two decades.

The 90's saw the Jets start off somewhat promising only to fall badly and become a laughingstock by the time 1996 finished. It wasn't until Bill Parcells arrived in 1997, That the Jets would change course and change their culture and become a contender. Since 1997, The Jets have been a respectable and contending franchise. They won their first division title since the merger in 1970 and from 1998 to present day, The Jets have won two division titles and have made the playoffs 7 different times and have made 3 trips to the AFC Championship Game. In the last 16 seasons, The Jets have only 4 non winning seasons. In the era of parody, that measures up pretty well against the other 31 NFL franchises. The Jets transformed from being a laughing stock and irrelevant franchise to being relevant and a legitimate contender. The local and national media would have you believe otherwise but the Jets have been a respectable franchise since 1997.

BACK TO THE DARK AGES

This leads me to where I feel this franchise is now headed or currently is. It looks like the Jets have officially reverted back to their losing ways prior to 1997. It's been a long time since the Jets franchise was considered and expected to be awful and that's where they currently stand. The late season collapse of 2011 and the ugliness of 2012 have combined to set this franchise back and downward. It's amazing how far down the team has gone after two magical runs near the mountain top just two years ago. There are a lot of people to blame for the downfall. Poor leadership and team awareness by Rex Ryan. Poor management by Mike Tannenbaum and poor ownership and guidance by Woody Johnson. The run is over. You can not recapture the vibe and aura that the franchise had.

MOVING FORWARD

It's hard to gauge what direction the Jets are currently in. Are they retooling or rebuilding? The model for rebuilding is in place, A young roster with a lot of departing veterans. You have uncertainty at key spots like QB and a new leader of football operations in John Idzik. At the same time, The Jets have the same football leader in place in Rex Ryan, the same quality defensive system and a whole new accomplished offensive staff. Rex is coaching for his life in 2013. If the Jets do not have a winning season or make the playoffs. He is gone. He knows it and the entire organization knows it. Rather than begin a complete organizational reset. Woody Johnson has decided to try and take another shot. The problem is that The Jets are not constructed properly to be a legitimate contender. They do not and will not have the neccessary cap room to improve their talent base. They don't have the current talent base to be a legitimate contender. The team is stuck in neutral. If 2013 goes as projected, The Jets will have to reset the entire organization from the coaching staff to the scouting department a year from now. The only person that will remain is John Idzik. Instead of using 2013 to build for 2014. The Jets are putting off the rebuild for another year in the hopes of getting back to where they were. That ship has sailed. Woody failed to realize that or doesn't want to face that reality. By attempting this in 2013, The Jets are pretty much setting themselves up for potentially two more losing seasons in 2013 and 2014. Even if the organization gets things on track, They may not contend until 2015.

There is always a fine line between realistic and pessimistic. So I know that this thread can be seen in both lights. Probably leaning more towards the pessimistic side. There is something about the way 2012 ended that made me feel like we are back to the way things were before 1997. I hope that I am wrong.

It is posts like this that made me a regular here. A big reason I pay my coin for the VIP membership. We need to return to this type of debate/ posting style. Refreshing and enlightening. Welcome back and thanks for the effort.

[Beerfish]

I dunno, does 'young' jets fan still apply?

Good post and I agree. The team will have two things pulling at them next year. One problem is if the new Gm is not sold on Rex and the team goes out and goes 8-8 and looks no bad doing it. What do you do then?

[YJF]

Originally Posted by shuler82

Here's the million dollar question - is it possible that the Jets get worse QB play in 2013 then they did in 2012?

Even with the new roster, you have to figure the Jets can't get worse offensively.. right? .. right??

If the new OC can get the offense to be mediocre, and Rex can continue to field a top 10 defense, the team may be more competitive than you think. Granted, they have A LOT of roster spots to fill, but it's definitely not improbable.

If you are going to present a pro Rex Ryan argument. It's amazing that The Jets were even in playoff contention at 6 and 7 when they lost their best defensive player(Revis) and their two best offensive targets(Holmes/Keller).

The Jets offense was very pre 97 like. It felt like the 95 Jets with Charles Wilson as the Jets star WR and Ronald Moore as the team's bell cow back.

I agree that the Jets offense can't get any worse. The way that the AFC East is set up. 2nd place is doable but that's not saying much. Gotta get to 10 wins to secure a playoff spot. As long as Belichick and Brady are together, They are winning 12 to 14 games every year and taking the AFC East crown.

[Darth Vader]

Well there u go, this type of thing will make the landing strip a bit more vacuous...

[YJF]

Originally Posted by GreenGeek

Thanks for the analysis (and welcome back). Already I feel better about spending time on the board. The point I most agree with is that you cannot tell (yet) whether they are retooling or rebuilding. If I try to summarize your points:

REBUILDING:

• Young roster with lots of departing vets (likely, but they are not gone yet).
• Uncertain QB situation (for sure).
• New GM brought from outside the organization.

RETOOLING:

• Rex stays.
• "accomplished" O-staff.

Between these choices you seem to decide on RETOOLING driven by Rex's status ("coaching for his life") and the assumption that the entire staff except Idzik leaves if there is a losing season. I would differ on drawing the conclusion. I think we'll know what is going on when we see the moves made during free agency and the draft. If we cut multiple vets whose salaries are damaging the cap, trade down in the draft for more picks, and go for value instead of "home runs" in free agency we are rebuilding. The course to making this a SUCCESSFUL rebuild will then be whether Woody is willing to accept a 2013 poor season to set up a brighter future, or whether he fires everyone in sight.

If I were the new GM, I would explain to Woody that I was hired into a bad situation and that he should EXPECT that the 2013 season will be a tough one as the route to a better future instead of the fuse that sets off the dynamite. So long as he accepts the premise of NOT firing the whole staff after 2013, then I believe that we could be in rebuilding instead of retooling.

Summary:

• We can't tell the intentions of the GM until he starts making some PLAYER moves.
• If the GM is moving to rebuild instead of retool, Woody needs to hold it together for at least a year to allow the process to proceed well.

SAR will explode, but the latter bullet means not firing everyone in sight following the first season of a legitimate rebuild.

Great post.

Legitimate rebuild. Not everyone gets fired.

Legitimate retool. Everyone goes. Idzik gets his shot to build the entire structure of the organization, scouting and coaching.

One last thing to consider is that John Idzik may be friendly to the type of head coach that wants more power than just being the head coach. That's if the Jets target that type of HC if they fire Rex. That type would be someone like Nick Saban or Bill Cowher etc

[GreenGeek]

Originally Posted by YJF

Great post.

Legitimate rebuild. Not everyone gets fired.

Legitimate retool. Everyone goes. Idzik gets his shot to build the entire structure of the organization, scouting and coaching.

One last thing to consider is that John Idzik may be friendly to the type of head coach that wants more power than just being the head coach. That's if the Jets target that type of HC if they fire Rex. That type would be someone like Nick Saban or Bill Cowher etc

If Idzik was hired because he will allow Rex significant influence in the personnel decisions, then indeed, Rex's influence will lean toward retool. Since this is Idzik's first shot at being his own GM, we'll just have to wait and see.

[YJF]

Originally Posted by TKasper01

It is posts like this that made me a regular here. A big reason I pay my coin for the VIP membership. We need to return to this type of debate/ posting style. Refreshing and enlightening. Welcome back and thanks for the effort.

Wow. Thanks for the high praise TKasper.

[YJF]

Originally Posted by Darth Vader

Well there u go, this type of thing will make the landing strip a bit more vacuous...

If I knew what vacuous meant, I'd be insulted.

[YJF]

Originally Posted by Beerfish

I dunno, does 'young' jets fan still apply?

Good post and I agree. The team will have two things pulling at them next year. One problem is if the new Gm is not sold on Rex and the team goes out and goes 8-8 and looks no bad doing it. What do you do then?

I guess Young Jets Fan doesn't apply anymore..... What could the Y stand for?

YourJetsFan?......YealdingJetsFan?.... YearningJetsFan???? YeomanJetsFan.... I don't know...lol

As for the 8 and 8 scenario. Knowing Woody's love for Rex. That could save him. It's a good point Beerfish. 8 and 8 and not looking bad doing it. Jets went 8 and 8 two years ago and looked bad doing it. 5 and 8 and running the table doesn't exactly do the Jets any favors. I think 8 and 8 gets him canned unless we pull a 1991 and make the playoffs with that record. After all, Mangini got fired after 9 and 7. I understand different level of expectation during the Favre year but still. It's a good point to ponder Beerfish.

[Jetdawgg]

Great OP. Glad to see you back here.

I think they kept Rex due to the fact that they love his defensive genius. The D has spent and inordinate amount of time on the field over the past two seasons and held up respectably.

This year as you stated without Revis (best player on D)

The O is in need of repair. I think Sanchez stays due to his contract. I major upgrade at the RB position would help. Someone with CJ Spiller capability would change the O immensely.

Keeping Braylon would help also.

A new Guard would not be a bad choice either. I think that Ducasse will start next year.

The D has held the NY Jets in games over the past two seasons, but the TO's by the QB and the 3 and outs add up quickly. The SF game was close until those TO's by Sanchez just knifed the Jets.

The QB play was so bad that Rex could not even manage the clock like a pro team at the end of the half in some games. I am sure it cannot get any worse than this season.

For some reason, I felt that this one was worse than the 1-15 season. Much worse.

[DDNYjets]

I agree. I think we are much closer now to where we were pre-Parcells than to where we were in 2009 or 2010.

That said, quick turnarounds are very possible in the NFL.

[Untouchable]

Originally Posted by shuler82

Welcome back YJF.

If I was Woody, I wouldn't be judging Rex on W/L in 2013.. He stays if he keeps the locker room, the defense continues to perform, and he stays out of the offense, allowing the OC to open things up, then you keep Rex... assuming Idzik can work with him.

This

Who the hell honestly expects us to contend for the playoffs next season?

This team is probably staring at another 6-10/7-9 campaign.

If the offense improves and the defense remains status quo, then Rex stays.

Otherwise, what was the point in keeping Rex?

I really hope Woody isn't that retarded.

[YJF]

Originally Posted by Jetdawgg

Great OP. Glad to see you back here.

I think they kept Rex due to the fact that they love his defensive genius. The D has spent and inordinate amount of time on the field over the past two seasons and held up respectably.

This year as you stated without Revis (best player on D)

The O is in need of repair. I think Sanchez stays due to his contract. I major upgrade at the RB position would help. Someone with CJ Spiller capability would change the O immensely.

Keeping Braylon would help also.

A new Guard would not be a bad choice either. I think that Ducasse will start next year.

The D has held the NY Jets in games over the past two seasons, but the TO's by the QB and the 3 and outs add up quickly. The SF game was close until those TO's by Sanchez just knifed the Jets.

The QB play was so bad that Rex could not even manage the clock like a pro team at the end of the half in some games. I am sure it cannot get any worse than this season.

For some reason, I felt that this one was worse than the 1-15 season. Much worse.

Thanks for the compliment. This is typical of any JI thread. We start at one point and then journey into several different directions.

A lot of solid points. The Jets have lacked difference makers on their roster for a long time now specifically on offense. So a Spiller type would be ideal and could be one of the Jets main targets in the first two rounds of the draft. Especially with a coordinator like Marty Mornhinweg who is known for utilizing dual threats at RB.

On defense, The Jets are still searching for that difference making pass rusher since John Abraham was on the sidelines milking injuries. With Pace and Thomas gone on the outside, The Jets could be in the market once again for a difference making pass rusher at OLB. They need it and if they were to get one in tandem with Wilkerson and Coples. The Jets could be a great defense.

I think that the Jets could be in better position at WR especially if Holmes returns healthy and Braylon comes back. Holmes, Edwards, Kerley and Hill would more than form a decent group at WR. I think it would be great if Keller could come back. That may very well be the key to the Jets passing offense.

As for guard, That could be a problem. Jets might have to bargain basement on this one with guys that get cut like Willie Colon or Richie Incognito.

Jets need a dynamic RB and dynamic pass rusher. If they get those two things settled this offseason. Then they could contend. As you can see, I am making up for lost time with these responses.

[SAR I]

Originally Posted by Untouchable

This

Who the hell honestly expects us to contend for the playoffs next season?

This team is probably staring at another 6-10/7-9 campaign.

If the offense improves and the defense remains status quo, then Rex stays.

Otherwise, what was the point in keeping Rex?

I really hope Woody isn't that retarded.

Back before I lost my mind and when I was trying to make sense of everything, I had a theory that went like this:

Woody is eating Tannenbaum's salary, isn't going to eat anyone else's. So if he's paying millions for Rex, Mark, and a bunch of others and he knows we're going to be no better than 6-10, why not bring in a new GM to cut his teeth, let the Rex Ryan Circus continue for another season, and then get rid of these expensive guys in 2014 when the new GM has his feet wet and it costs a lot less.

Looking at it logically, keeping Rex a) saves the Jets money, b) keeps the Jets on the back pages, c) forces the person who made the mess to try to clean it, and d) gives the new GM time to settle in.

Not saying I agree with that, especially in light of the fact that it likely cost us 1 or 2 more qualified GM's, but I can see Woody doing this.

SAR I

[SAR I]

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

I agree. I think we are much closer now to where we were pre-Parcells than to where we were in 2009 or 2010.

That said, quick turnarounds are very possible in the NFL.

All that matters is that on the day in 2015 or 2016 that Bill and Tom hang it up we are the one team in the AFC East that's poised to take control of the division, get a home playoff game, be headed in an upwards trajectory.

We don't need a quick turnaround. We need a smart rebuild. Take 3 years, get a very good core on the lines, find your RB and your QB, be a decent second-place team around 8 or 9 wins, and then be that 11 win team and win the East when the Patriots are no more.

SAR I

[YJF]

Originally Posted by SAR I

Back before I lost my mind and when I was trying to make sense of everything, I had a theory that went like this:

Woody is eating Tannenbaum's salary, isn't going to eat anyone else's. So if he's paying millions for Rex, Mark, and a bunch of others and he knows we're going to be no better than 6-10, why not bring in a new GM to cut his teeth, let the Rex Ryan Circus continue for another season, and then get rid of these expensive guys in 2014 when the new GM has his feet wet and it costs a lot less.

Looking at it logically, keeping Rex a) saves the Jets money, b) keeps the Jets on the back pages, c) forces the person who made the mess to try to clean it, and d) gives the new GM time to settle in.

Not saying I agree with that, especially in light of the fact that it likely cost us 1 or 2 more qualified GM's, but I can see Woody doing this.

SAR I

Your speculative scenario sounds somewhat plausible. There is some logic to it. When it comes to John Idzik... It kind of extends to Scott Cohen, Terry Bradway, Brandon Prophett, JoJo Wooden and the entire Jets scouting department.. Those guys are still here and if the Jets fail in 2013. It would benefit them to have Idzik surround himself with a stronger scouting department. This way, Idzik can be the boss and delegate to people who have more scouting acumen than him. Just a better support staff overall. There's no doubt about what you just stated about John Idzik getting his feet wet this year. He's going to get a pass no matter what and the year can help him in the future. His main job is to get the cap right and to get this draft right.

[YJF]

Originally Posted by SAR I

All that matters is that on the day in 2015 or 2016 that Bill and Tom hang it up we are the one team in the AFC East that's poised to take control of the division, get a home playoff game, be headed in an upwards trajectory.

We don't need a quick turnaround. We need a smart rebuild. Take 3 years, get a very good core on the lines, find your RB and your QB, be a decent second-place team around 8 or 9 wins, and then be that 11 win team and win the East when the Patriots are no more.

SAR I

That's very solid forward thinking Sar. Especially when it comes to 2015 and 2016 and the eventual departure of Belicheat and Brady. The AFC East will be wide open for the taking. Right now, Teams like the Bills and Fish have given up on over taking the Pats and are in competition to capture second place. It's all about getting to 9 or 10 wins and possibly contending for a wild card spot.

[ARodFLKeysJetsFan]

Originally Posted by gunnails

WOW! You came back to us. Glad to see you here.

x 2 - Welcome back YJF.

[YJF]

Originally Posted by ARodFLKeysJetsFan

x 2 - Welcome back YJF.

Thanks ARod. I'd say, It's good to be back but I will give it a few days.lol