The Myth that the Jets are in Salary Cap Hell

[ucrenegade]

very good job i would be interested to see what type of players we can get with that new cap and would signing a guy like moore eat to much into it so we can't get reliable depth.

it seems sanchez and holmes have screwed us by not being able to get good guys to compete with thier spots.

also is greene still on his rookie deal?

[long island leprechaun]

Great read. Wish Jason was still doing those pre-game analysis write-ups. Guy's got a talent for this stuff. Thanks, Jason.

[hatnlvr]

Great read! Thanks for posting it

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by Megalomaniac

Different direction that mangold? I think the discussion of him and his cap at all is ridiculous. According to PFF, he was only the 6th best center in football this year. And he was only the 2nd best last year.

Keep in mind that this "down year" of his included a terrible OL Coach and a terrible running game that was doomed from the start when Sparano switched the running scheme from zone-blocking to gap-blocking.

I know everyone loves Mangold but he is heading in the wrong direction. Maybe things get turned around but if he continues to decline I think the Jets need to look at every option whether that is a pay cut, restructure or whatever. The issue I would have with a restructure is that you would be basically extending a declining player. Center is not a premier position. The difference between the great ones and the average one is not that much.

That said, Mangold is pretty far down on the list of issues with this team, but every single player needs to be looked at.

[sg3]

thanks for the post of Jason's blog


but....

I thought the Jets were in cap hell and doomed

[section314]

Wow! Pretty impressive stuff, Jason. His final point is telling.....that if a fan like himself can sort through this mess and get the Jets to a decent cap spot, a real GM can probably do even more. The idea that "cap hell" turned people away from this job is ridiculous. It couldn't have been Woody and Rex, right? Nah, that's crazy talk.

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by sg3

thanks for the post of Jason's blog


but....

I thought the Jets were in cap hell and doomed

Welcome back.

[shuler82]

Originally Posted by long island leprechaun

Great read. Wish Jason was still doing those pre-game analysis write-ups. Guy's got a talent for this stuff. Thanks, Jason.

He still does them.. just on his site.. Every once in awhile Jason423 will pop in over here.. but obviously not nearly enough as many of us would like.

As for his plan, it gives me hope. I always knew getting under the cap wouldn't be the issue, but rather having enough money to replace the number of players on the roster. This plan would seem to do that, without mortgaging the future one bit..

[patman]

Great work. But I don't understand why you took the savings and assumed Holmes would rework his deal unless significant money is guaranteed. When you pointed out it was the case. The guy is coming off the worse possible injury for a WR, an injury where most players take a full year at minimum. The possibility that he misses games is just too real to cut his pay without tit for tat in 2014 dollars.

As a matter of fact the team expressed interest in getting rid of him already he knows he is not in the long range plans. Never mind tit for tat I could see him wanting even more of the 2014 salary as a guarantee than what he is given up in 2013 dollars.

I don't get why Harris does the deal. It seems not to give him any extra real money over the next two years. as it is cutting his 2014 by 3.5 mill, the same amount that is being allocated to his extension. It seems like he would be better getting his 11 mill now. if the jets cut him in 2014 he is likely to get a better deal as a FA than what Jason laid out for him.

All the other moves seem to make sense.

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by section314

Wow! Pretty impressive stuff, Jason. His final point is telling.....that if a fan like himself can sort through this mess and get the Jets to a decent cap spot, a real GM can probably do even more. The idea that "cap hell" turned people away from this job is ridiculous. It couldn't have been Woody and Rex, right? Nah, that's crazy talk.

I agree...

Just a masterful job by Jason...

[Jungle Shift Jet]

Why would Brick and Revis deals be untouchable?

[Jason423]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Always appreciated

[Jason423]

Originally Posted by patman

Great work. But I don't understand why you took the savings and assumed Holmes would rework his deal unless significant money is guaranteed. When you pointed out it was the case. The guy is coming off the worse possible injury for a WR, an injury where most players take a full year at minimum. The possibility that he misses games is just too real to cut his pay without tit for tat in 2014 dollars.

As a matter of fact the team expressed interest in getting rid of him already he knows he is not in the long range plans. Never mind tit for tat I could see him wanting even more of the 2014 salary as a guarantee than what he is given up in 2013 dollars.

I don't get why Harris does the deal. It seems not to give him any extra real money over the next two years. as it is cutting his 2014 by 3.5 mill, the same amount that is being allocated to his extension. It seems like he would be better getting his 11 mill now. if the jets cut him in 2014 he is likely to get a better deal as a FA than what Jason laid out for him.

All the other moves seem to make sense.

The thing with Holmes is he has no chance of getting 11 million. What would you say is the max value someone would pay him in 2013 and 2014? If its more than $17.25 million I would say you are correct and that he would never give the Jets cap relief. If its less than that his best financial plan is to stick with the Jets. Now maybe he has no desire to stay on the Jets and in that case he wants a release in which case the Jets could either declare him a June 1 cut or cut him outright. But I cant see a team off that injury willing to pay him $8.6 million a year. That would still rank 10th in the league.

[patman]

Originally Posted by Jason423

The thing with Holmes is he has no chance of getting 11 million. What would you say is the max value someone would pay him in 2013 and 2014? If its more than $17.25 million I would say you are correct and that he would never give the Jets cap relief. If its less than that his best financial plan is to stick with the Jets. Now maybe he has no desire to stay on the Jets and in that case he wants a release in which case the Jets could either declare him a June 1 cut or cut him outright. But I cant see a team off that injury willing to pay him $8.6 million a year. That would still rank 10th in the league.

The most i would see a team pay him is 2 mill in 2013 with some incentives.

Why do you feel he has no chance of being on the team next year? The jets don't get any relief from cutting him. When your cutting people just for spite when there is no benefit for the team, does not make the jets attractive to FA. The guy got hurt while playing- how do you think other players would look at it? It is one thing to get cut when there is a cap savings, players understand that, but there is not benefit it does not look good.

The way I understood the way you laid it out was that Holmes WAS NOT guaranteed any money in 2014. If you did guarantee the salary lost in 2013 to be in replaced in 2014 then he would rework it. But I understood that you would have him take the risk coming off liz franc surgery based on games played.

Are you saying that the delta between the 11 salary and the 7.75 guarantee
will be guaranteed in 2014. If he has nothing to lose, then sure. If not the jets can cut him and not get any cap room since his replacement on the roster would get paid his 1.25 cost savings.

He knows the jets want him off the team, But he feels his career may be over and wants every dollar he can get his hands on.

[GreenReaper]

Excellent read. Jason has presented a 2013 restructured CAP, that should give all Jets fans hope for this upcoming season and the near future.

Even if the restructuring of the Holmes and Harris contracts don't happen in the way Jason laid them out. The Jets CAP situation is going to be somewhere in the $20s, and can go up to possibly Jason's $29+. It's enough for the Jets to add some decent mid level talent that's sorely needed to fill out several positions on the roster.

If Idzik can do a good job in FA and the draft...Jets can be a lot more competitive, then many of us fans here believed was possible.

[patman]

Originally Posted by GreenReaper

Excellent read. Jason has presented a 2013 restructured CAP, that should give all Jets fans hope for this upcoming season and the near future.

Even if the restructuring of the Holmes and Harris contracts don't happen in the way Jason laid them out. The Jets CAP situation is going to be somewhere in the $20s, and can go up to possibly Jason's $29+. It's enough for the Jets to add some decent mid level talent that's sorely needed to fill out several positions on the roster.

If Idzik can do a good job in FA and the draft...Jets can be a lot more competitive, then many of us fans here believed was possible.

Holmes and Harris deals are the center piece, and those two deals are the only ones to save real money almost 13 mill. Jason believes that Holmes would cut his 2013 salary just for a shot to play for the jets in 2014 to earn a 9mill salary, but does not put any of that savings into a 2014 guarantee.
Does anyone think he has a snow ball chance in hell of seeing that 9mill?

His savings can realistically be obtained however by guaranteeing the same amount of 2014 salary, this he would do, as all he does is lose interest on 4mill of salary

If he does not stay under the existing parameters,The best bet for him is to get cut and sign a two year deal somewhere else for vet min the 1st year, a small say 2mill SB and then the 2nd year guaranteed if he reaches incentives I see this as the most plausible route if any action is taken. I can see a NFC west team giving him a contract. All 4 coaches deal with guys that have been trouble, all have need for a cheap WR.

Harris deal is another one where there is no benefit to the player at all. In two years Harris is a FA, he is foregoing that and cutting his 2014 salary by almost 4mill under the scenario Jason Laid out. Once again, He would be better off staying where he is at now. With the opportunity to sign as a two down run stuffer either with the jets or somewhere else. Unless the jets guarantee his 2015 contract under jason's scenario, then i am sure he would do the deal.

[GreenReaper]

Originally Posted by patman

Holmes and Harris deals are the center piece, and those two deals are the only ones to save real money almost 13 mill. Jason believes that Holmes would cut his 2013 salary just for a shot to play for the jets in 2014 to earn a 9mill salary, but does not put any of that savings into a 2014 guarantee.
Does anyone think he has a snow ball chance in hell of seeing that 9mill?

His savings can realistically be obtained however by guaranteeing the same amount of 2014 salary, this he would do, as all he does is lose interest on 4mill of salary

If he does not stay under the existing parameters,The best bet for him is to get cut and sign a two year deal somewhere else for vet min the 1st year, a small say 2mill SB and then the 2nd year guaranteed if he reaches incentives I see this as the most plausible route if any action is taken. I can see a NFC west team giving him a contract. All 4 coaches deal with guys that have been trouble, all have need for a cheap WR.

Harris deal is another one where there is no benefit to the player at all. In two years Harris is a FA, he is foregoing that and cutting his 2014 salary by almost 4mill under the scenario Jason Laid out. Once again, He would be better off staying where he is at now. With the opportunity to sign as a two down run stuffer either with the jets or somewhere else. Unless the jets guarantee his 2015 contract under jason's scenario, then i am sure he would do the deal.

There are different CAP possibilities and ramifications depending on trade results and draft/FA strategy. Like Jason's...those possibilities are hypothetical as well. What is crucially important...is Idzik's own plan for 2013 and going forward. We'll start getting an idea this early March, what he plans to do.

Certainly around $17 mil is there to work with. Don't know if a more modest restructure of the Holmes and Harris contracts is doable...or desirable. That can result bringing the CAP near $20. There's still also the possibility that other contracts, not mentioned, might be addressed by Idzik.


Personally...I see no future with Holmes beyond 2013. And Harris' downhill production trend may render him as someone best to cut after the 2013 season. Cause as his contract currently stands...2014 dead money is 2 mil; CAP savings is $5 mil.


Anyhow...I haven't done any serious in depth crunching of $$$numbers concerning the CAP. That starts pretty soon after this Supe.

[Jason423]

Originally Posted by patman

The most i would see a team pay him is 2 mill in 2013 with some incentives.

Why do you feel he has no chance of being on the team next year? The jets don't get any relief from cutting him. When your cutting people just for spite when there is no benefit for the team, does not make the jets attractive to FA. The guy got hurt while playing- how do you think other players would look at it? It is one thing to get cut when there is a cap savings, players understand that, but there is not benefit it does not look good.

The way I understood the way you laid it out was that Holmes WAS NOT guaranteed any money in 2014. If you did guarantee the salary lost in 2013 to be in replaced in 2014 then he would rework it. But I understood that you would have him take the risk coming off liz franc surgery based on games played.

Are you saying that the delta between the 11 salary and the 7.75 guarantee
will be guaranteed in 2014. If he has nothing to lose, then sure. If not the jets can cut him and not get any cap room since his replacement on the roster would get paid his 1.25 cost savings.

He knows the jets want him off the team, But he feels his career may be over and wants every dollar he can get his hands on.

But there is a cap benefit to cutting Holmes. The immediate cap help is $1 million. The Jets also receive offsets for salary received by a new team. So what would happen with Holmes (assuming he is not a June 1 cut) is that all his money accelerates when he is cut. Of that money $7.75 million is in the form of guaranteed salary. When he signs with another team for the $2 million the Jets receive that $2 million in both cash (assuming they paid Holmes within 30 days of the cut) and cap relief making the total savings $3 million.

This is why I am saying that $11 million salary is worthless. He has no avenue to earn it anywhere because it would require a team, either the Jets or another club, to pay him $11 million in salary in 2013. There is zero percent chance of that happening.

So again I would ask if you cut Holmes today would he receive a salary from a team in 2013 and then a non-guranteed salary of $9.5 million in 2014 from that same team? I dont think any team would do that. Now maybe hed be happy to go play in New England on a 1 year contract and hope he puts up numbers to get a big deal in free agency next season, but thats the only reason why he would refuse a paycut. He isnt going to earn more on a contract he signs this year than if he sticks with the Jets.

[124]

His thoughts on Holmes, Harris and probably Sanchez are all pipe dreams, but it was a good read. 99% sure it won't happen that way though.

[Savage69]

Originally Posted by Jason423

.

So again I would ask if you cut Holmes today would he receive a salary from a team in 2013 and then a non-guranteed salary of $9.5 million in 2014 from that same team? I dont think any team would do that. Now maybe hed be happy to go play in New England on a 1 year contract and hope he puts up numbers to get a big deal in free agency next season, but thats the only reason why he would refuse a paycut. He isnt going to earn more on a contract he signs this year than if he sticks with the Jets.

A Randy Moss move perhaps..