The Official New Hampshire Primary Prediction Thread

[Warfish]

You know the drill. Post your predictions here, discussion of both pre- and post- Primary debate can go here as well.

My own Preidctions:

#1 Romney
#2 McCain
#3 Huckabee
#4 Thompson

#1 Obama
#2 Clinton
#3 Edwards
#4 Too Low to Matter

[nuu faaola]

My picks:

GOP:
1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Huckabee

Dems:
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards

[parkwayjet1]

For Republicans, I think McCain will do very well with the Independents and will win for that reason, with Romney second and Huck third.

For the Dems, as much as I hate to say it, I see Hillary winning it and bringing Obama back down to earth for a second place showing. Edwards again will pull a third-place showing.

[parafly]

Dems:

1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
4) Richardson

Reps:

1) McCain
2) Huckabee
3) Romney
4) Paul

[Warfish]

[QUOTE=parafly;2300870]Dems:

1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
4) Richardson

Reps:

1) McCain
2) Huckabee
3) Romney
4) Paul[/QUOTE]

I'd be interested to hear your reasoning for Paul finishing ahead of Thompson.

[parafly]

[QUOTE=Warfish;2300880]I'd be interested to hear your reasoning for Paul finishing ahead of Thompson.[/QUOTE]

Paul has a better appeal to liberals, and that will benefit him more in NH than it did in Iowa. I think he gets about 10% again, but Thompson drops to single digits.

[Warfish]

[QUOTE=parafly;2300917]Paul has a better appeal to liberals, and that will benefit him more in NH than it did in Iowa. I think he gets about 10% again, but Thompson drops to single digits.[/QUOTE]

So the assumption is either "primary crossover" Liberals who sign up as Repubs for the primary, along with the inherant Liberalness of Northeastern conservatives, will sway it to Paul, at the detriment of Thompson then?

One small question, isn't Pauls folks calling him the only true "Reagan Conservative" in the mix? Would those Liberals not more naturally swing their votes towards the clearly moderate McCain over Paul, given the twos various standings on the issues?

Guess I just don't give Paul that much respect in appealing to Liberals any more than he appeals to conservatives. He may still prove me wrong.

[JohnnyHector]

[U]Democrats:[/U]

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Tsongas

[U]Republican:[/U]

1. SAR I
2. McCain
3. Romney
4. Huckabee

[parafly]

[QUOTE=Warfish;2300937]So the assumption is either "primary crossover" Liberals who sign up as Repubs for the primary, along with the inherant Liberalness of Northeastern conservatives, will sway it to Paul, at the detriment of Thompson then?

One small question, isn't Pauls folks calling him the only true "Reagan Conservative" in the mix? Would those Liberals not more naturally swing their votes towards the clearly moderate McCain over Paul, given the twos various standings on the issues?

Guess I just don't give Paul that much respect in appealing to Liberals any more than he appeals to conservatives. He may still prove me wrong.[/QUOTE]

His appeal to liberals and independents is simple: he wants to end the Iraq War. I know there is alot of hatred towards Paul on this board, but he seems to have struck a chord with people that are not typically interested in politics and don't usually vote. I know several people like this personally.

However, his appeal is still relatively minor. Getting 10% of the vote doesn't exactly set the world on fire, but I think it will be more than Thompson.

The wildcard here is Guiliani. Just a couple of months ago, he was leading (or at least very close to leading) in NH. It seems like he peaked way too early, made a crutial mistake of ignoring the early primaries, and the more people learn about him, the more they run the other way. Regardless, if anyone has a chance of bumping Paul out of my prediction, it's him, not Thompson.

[Warfish]

[QUOTE=parafly;2300990]His appeal to liberals and independents is simple: he wants to end the Iraq War. I know there is alot of hatred towards Paul on this board, but he seems to have struck a chord with people that are not typically interested in politics and don't usually vote. I know several people like this personally.

However, his appeal is still relatively minor. Getting 10% of the vote doesn't exactly set the world on fire, but I think it will be more than Thompson.

The wildcard here is Guiliani. Just a couple of months ago, he was leading (or at least very close to leading) in NH. It seems like he peaked way too early, made a crutial mistake of ignoring the early primaries, and the more people learn about him, the more they run the other way. Regardless, if anyone has a chance of bumping Paul out of my prediction, it's him, not Thompson.[/QUOTE]

I would agree, if the War still seemed to be the primary issue. I have to be honest, it doesn't seem to be from all the reports I am hearing of late. But, if it is, then you could be quite right.

[JetsFan2012]

Republicans:

1. McCain/Romney
2. Romney/McCain
3. Huckabee

Democrats:

1. Hillary
2. Obama
3. Edwards


I think Romney is going to pull out all stops with attack ads against his competitors, especially McCain since he's closest to him in the NH polls. I haven't decided if that will hurt him or help him yet.

I see Hillary winning NH; ding dong, the witch ain't dead... yet.

[PlumberKhan]

1.)Willard
2.)Roll over McCain
3.)I don't give a Huckabee


1.)Kills babies dead Obama
2.)Wifey
3.)Angry Man Edwards

[Mr. Yankee]

Democrats
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Republicans
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

Obama becomes the heavy favorite for Dems. Any real chance of Romney winning the nomination will be gone.

[nuu faaola]

[QUOTE=Warfish;2301050]I would agree, if the War still seemed to be the primary issue. I have to be honest, it doesn't seem to be from all the reports I am hearing of late. But, if it is, then you could be quite right.[/QUOTE]


The war will probably not surface as a major issue until the general. The frontrunners simply don't disagree enough about it to have it dominate the debates.

My hunch is it's returns as an issue in the general, when we're more likely to have two candidates who genuinely disagree on how to go forward there.

[sect112row36]

No love for the Wyoming primary?

[jets5ever]

[QUOTE=nuu faaola;2301103]The war will probably not surface as a major issue until the general. The frontrunners simply don't disagree enough about it to have it dominate the debates.

My hunch is it's returns as an issue in the general, when we're more likely to have two candidates who genuinely disagree on how to go forward there.[/QUOTE]

The Democrats don't really disagree about anything.

[Green Jets & Ham]

Hucklebuck wins New Hampshire and no-one ever under-estimates the power of Chuck Norris again

[MnJetFan]

Republicans Romney
McCain
Thompson
Huckster

Democrats: Clinton
Obama
Edwards
So it is written, so it will be done! :D

[BrooklynBound]

Anyone who thinks Paul won't do better than 10% in NH is kidding themselves. I will propose an avatar/signature bet to anyone who thinks otherwise.

[JetsFanatic]

GOP:

1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Huckabee

McCain was a big winner in Iowa because of the disappointing show of Romney. Huckabee should get a bump from Iowa, though probably not enough to break into the top 2 slots. Independents can vote in New Hampshire which is good news for McCain. Though I believe a significant amount of independents will vote in the democratic primary to vote against Hillary Clinton. [I]Thompson and Giuliani have virtually skipped this primary[/I].

Dems:

1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards

Obama will become a movement in the Democratic party, also Independents can vote in New Hampshire. Anti-Hillary independents will vote democratic to make sure she is not the nominee.