A Reasonable Breakdown of our Playoff Chances

[My.Favorite.Martin]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232533]You're kidding right. You think we thought we could beat anyone when we lost to the Falcons in '09 or lost 45-3 to the Pats last year? No.

Any given Sunday, and the great thing is this team is LOADED with talent on any given Sunday. The thing is just to see if we can put it together on any given Sunday.[/QUOTE]

I think this is the worst team Rex has fielded to be honest. Sure we can beat the Dolphins and Bills and Charges of the world, but that's not going to win us anything in January.

[chiefst2000]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232519]Any team led by Tom Brady isn't mediocre. They didn't even beat us on talent, they beat us on coaching. Why Sanchez called a TO with :17 left on the playclock is beyond me but it's not talent. Why Rex didn't call a TO to get the D reorganized when the Pats were going no huddle and we had the wrong package on the field to stop the run is beyond me, but it's not talent.

And really? You see TIM TEBOW having success? TIM FREAKING TEBOW. Yes, Tom Brady can have success against our LB when covering their tight ends but to compare him to Tim Tebow or use anything that Brady did to compare him to Tim Tebow is a joke.[/QUOTE]

The Pats crushed us with their no huddle. I will never understand why someone didn't fake an injury there to get a pause in the action.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=Beerfish;4232516][B]"but the Patriots are a great team with a hall of fame QB and an amazing head coach."[/B]

Not correct. Great hof QB. Great offense. Total and utter jag defense that every other team in the league is just killing this year.[/QUOTE]

This "jag" defense idea of the Patriots is starting to get a little bit old. Ever since the first three games in which Brady would score every ten seconds hence putting his D back on the field in 10 seconds the scores against the Pats haven't been too absurd anymore.

Oakland put up 19
Dallas put up 16
Pitt put up 25
NYG put up 24

That's an average of 21 points.

Last time we played them we scored 21. Exactly on average.

This time we scored 16 including a missed chip shot FG after Santonio fell down with a clear path to the endzone. and a muffed punt.



It's scary to say but BB is coaching these guys well. Sure, they're not what they used to be but the idea they are the WORST IN THE NFL at this point is an outright joke.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=chiefst2000;4232545]The Pats crushed us with their no huddle. I will never understand why someone didn't fake an injury there to get a pause in the action.[/QUOTE]

I was saying that exact thing to my friend. I kept hoping one of the Jets wouldn't get up and grab his leg but it never happened.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=My.Favorite.Martin;4232544]I think this is the worst team Rex has fielded to be honest. Sure we can beat the Dolphins and Bills and Charges of the world, but that's not going to win us anything in January.[/QUOTE]

So what did you say after we lost 45-3? Was that the worst team he had fielded?

The worst team he had fielded was in '09 when we had Cotchery as our number one, then Braylon as the number one.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=PMarsico9;4232542]Massive speed mismatches in intermediate wideout routes, Vick, Celek, and McCoy.

The Eagles have been losing because of Reid, but even with that, you have to plan as if they are well coached.

If Reid comes out running a short West Coast offense like he should and gives McCoy at least 25 carries, this is not a good matchup for the Jets.

It's really not a good matchup for anybody, but especially with how slow the Jets LB's are in coverage.

Also it's at the Linc.[/QUOTE]

You know what speed players do when the games don't matter to them? They go slower because they don't want to hit people as fast.

[petejet]

[QUOTE=chiefst2000;4232545]The Pats crushed us with their no huddle. I will never understand why someone didn't fake an injury there to get a pause in the action.[/QUOTE]

The Pats crushed us with their no huddle. I will never understand why we don't try the same thing. Especially against the worst D in the league:steamin:

[Timby01]

Let's worry about Denver before we even start thinking about playoff scenarios.....I know Tebow sucks but he is 3-1 and they do have a tight end, so he'll probably throw to him for 180 and 2 td's

[PMarsico9]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232562]You know what speed players do when the games don't matter to them? They go slower because they don't want to hit people as fast.[/QUOTE]

OK, so the Jets will dominate the Eagles because their guys will run at half-speed..........If you believe that's what will happen, then Mark Sanchez is a Pro-Bowler.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=PMarsico9;4232567]OK, so the Jets will dominate the Eagles because their guys will run at half-speed..........If you believe that's what will happen, then Mark Sanchez is a Pro-Bowler.[/QUOTE]

No, I don't think Sanchez is a pro-bowler, I just don't think the Eagles will be giving it a "full effort" at that point.

[PMarsico9]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232571]No, I don't think Sanchez is a pro-bowler, I just don't think the Eagles will be giving it a "full effort" at that point.[/QUOTE]

The point is that if they do, we're in bad shape.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=PMarsico9;4232574]The point is that if they do, we're in bad shape.[/QUOTE]

We're in better shape than the 7 teams in the AFC with better records than us. We're in the same shape as the 3 teams with the same record.
We're in worse shape than the 5 teams with better records.

So we are tied with/ahead of 10 teams in the AFC.

What rotten shape. I wish we had a QB that went 2 of 8 yet our opponent the next week is very scared of.

[Mainejet]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232442]Here is our remaining schedule:

@Denver
Buff
@Washington
Kansas City
@ Philadelphia
NY Giants
@ Miami

Easy Wins: Denver, Washington, Miami
Probably Win: Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia (they'll be cashing their season checks about the time we play them)
50-50 Chance or worse of winning: NY Giants.

Lets set the easy win percentage to 1- 3 wins

Lets set the probably win percentage to .666 (pretty low for a probably win percentage) - So we win 2 of 3 of them

Lets set the 50-50 chance or worse of winning to .333- so 0 wins.

That would make us 10-6 with a division record of either 7-5 or 8-4.

[CENTER][U]The Competition[/U][/CENTER]
The Bills, Baltimore, Pitt, Cincy, the Titans, 1 team from AFC West (because they play each other there has to be one win though I doubt any of them will win enough to be a problem).

[B]Baltimore, Pitt and Cincy[/B]
One of them has to win the division and Cincy plays Baltimore 2 more times and Pitt once (and they have a game against Houston). For sake of simplicity, lets assume they fall out of it which is good and bad because it eliminates a team while also giving wins to the Ravens and the Steelers.

Baltimore doesn't have that hard of a schedule and only has one tough game against the 49ers. If they run the table they get to 13-3, if they lose to the 49ers they are 12-4.

The Steelers have a similar schedule with their only tough game being against the 49ers and they can get to 13-3 or 12-4 also.

Either the Ravens or the Steelers are getting one of the wildcard spots, the Bengals just have too hard a schedule to keep up their level of play.

The good thing with these teams also is that they play the AFC West a lot so they will knock any of those teams out of contention for the Wildcard. Cincy will probably finish at 10-6 assuming they win one of the three games they have left against the Steelers and the Ravens. That will give them a conference record of 7-5 (same as us on the lower scale). I don't know 100% how the tiebreaker of common opponents works but I think they will lose to us because if they are 10-6 and have that division record it means they lost at least once to the Ravens and we have a lead on them in common opponents as they lost to Denver (assuming we beat Denver).

[B]The Bills[/B]
Personally, I don't think the Bills will pose any problems, they have a habit of starting hot, getting people talking, and then failing miserably. They did this same act in '08 and '04.

Assuming that we have to beat the Bills to have a chance the most important game on their schedule for us is their game against the Titans. While I highly doubt the Titans will be relevant at the end of the season due to their schedule (they play the Falcons, Saints, and Texans) if somehow they win some of those games, one of the 5-4 teams (speaking of the Bills and Titans) will get a loss giving them 5 losses.

Couple that with us beating the Bills (an assumed necessity) and the Bills have 6 losses. I also expect the Bills to lose one of their games to either the Pats or the Chargers and hence they have 7 losses and are out at 9-7.



Overall, we have to take care of business, but if we do, we can get into the playoffs at 10-6. All the teams we are competing against play each other hence guaranteeing one of them will lose.. All is not lost guys, I'm just as pissed as you, but the Patriots are a great team with a hall of fame QB and an amazing head coach. Ryan normally out coaches BB in their matchups to make up for where we lack the talent but this is when he gets out coached.

Also, stop with the negativity about the Broncos game. We'll beat them easily. Tebow completed TWO passes.[/QUOTE]

I really do not see what difference this makes? Most of us would have said we'd still make the playoffs even if we lost against NE.

The point is, the team is not progressing past the Patsies. It's wild card city once again and home field advantage (possibly one game) or division title.

As Jets fans we knew the objective was to get the division title. It was an achievement the Jets could not attain.

The Jets just never seem to want to make things easier on themselves. With the pressure of having to play on the road throughout the playoffs, I doubt the team gets to the SB. They'll likely fall short again.

[My.Favorite.Martin]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232559]So what did you say after we lost 45-3? Was that the worst team he had fielded?

The worst team he had fielded was in '09 when we had Cotchery as our number one, then Braylon as the number one.[/QUOTE]

I don't remember what I said, but I certainly always thought last years team was better than the '09 team. In '09 we had a dominant running game and a better front 7 than we do this year. Hell we even had a vertical attack.

You talk about Braylon like he was bad for us. We're really missing him this year.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=Mainejet;4232591]I really do not see what difference this makes? Most of us would have said we'd still make the playoffs even if we lost against NE.

The point is, the team is not progressing past the Patsies. It's wild card city once again and home field advantage (possibly one game) or division title.

As Jets fans we knew the [B]objective was to get the division title[/B]. It was an achievement the Jets could not attain.

The Jets just never seem to want to make things easier on themselves. With the pressure of having to play on the road throughout the playoffs, I doubt the team gets to the SB. They'll likely fall short again.[/QUOTE]

The objective is to win the Super Bowl, anything else is just help.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=My.Favorite.Martin;4232595]I don't remember what I said, but I certainly always thought last years team was better than the '09 team. In '09 we had a dominant running game and a better front 7 than we do this year. Hell we even had a vertical attack.

You talk about Braylon like he was bad for us. We're really missing him this year.[/QUOTE]

I think Braylon is great too, he's just not a number one. He has the talent and the measurables but he just lacks....something.

He needs to be the 1b to be successful which is why he was great matched with Holmes.

The '09 team went 9-7 with a loss to a terrible Bills team. We had a great O-line but I think if you put that O-line on this team...wow, that'd be amazing.

[Joe W. Namath]

Nostranamath sees the playoffs this way;

1-Texans
2-Pats
3-Pitt
4-Oak
5-Balt
6-Jets

Now what we really need is to somehow leap Balt and get Oak in the 1st round.

[Mainejet]

[QUOTE=Jetspennyfan;4232598]The objective is to win the Super Bowl, anything else is just help.[/QUOTE]

Very true. But considering the Jets have fallen short in two consecutive seasons, what can you draw from those experiences. What can make the team avoid the same fate this season?

That would be winning the division title. That would make things easier on themselves.

They had their chance last night and they fell on their faces. It's wild card city again and that is simply not good enough. The fanbase has come to expect a SB as Rex has been promising for a long time now.

Once again, they blew it. Because entering the playoffs as a wild card just isn't good enough.

I remember Buddy Ryan eventually got fired because the team didn't progress in the playoffs. They made the playoffs nearly every season he was the HC, but I don't believe they ever won a playoff game.

I'm beginning to think this is the same fate that could consume Rex. The fans are expecting more and the HC is not delivering.

[Jetspennyfan]

[QUOTE=Mainejet;4232617]Very true. But considering the Jets have fallen short in two consecutive seasons, what can you draw from those experiences. What can make the team avoid the same fate this season?

That would be winning the division title. That would make things easier on themselves.

They had their chance last night and they fell on their faces. It's wild card city again and that is simply not good enough. The fanbase has come to expect a SB as Rex has been promising for a long time now.

Once again, they blew it. Because entering the playoffs as a wild card just isn't good enough.

I remember Buddy Ryan eventually got fired because the team didn't progress in the playoffs. They made the playoffs nearly every season he was the HC, but I don't believe they ever won a playoff game.

I'm beginning to think this is the same fate that could consume Rex. The fans are expecting more and the HC is not delivering.[/QUOTE]

We win playoffs games so we're not buddy ryan. Yes, a home playoff game would be helpful, but if Bart Scott doesn't vacate his place on the 3rd and 5 play against the Steelers, Big Ben has no where to go and we get the ball back with a chance to win the game. I really think we've been putting too much thought into home VS away as to it helping.

What we should have be concentrating on was getting the first round bye. That lets players rest up and heal. Rex's teams haven't shown any problems with playing on the road.

[Winstonbiggs]

What I like about this thread is that it acknowledges that the Jets can only beat crappy NFL teams. Wait till next year.