The Jets do NOT control their own destiny (technically) - Page 2

BIGKIDD325 · 12-19-2011, 10:33 AM

[QUOTE=revischrist;4283301]LOL, this guy has been doing this for years and gives the Jets a 100 PERCENT chance of making the playoffs if they win out. Once the chargers beat the Ravens the odds went frmo 99.7 to 100 percent.

[url]http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/NYJets.html[/url][/QUOTE]
That's flat out not true.

sec.101row23 · 12-19-2011, 10:33 AM

Basically just root for every team the Jets BEAT this season to win.

Batmans A Scientist · 12-19-2011, 10:33 AM

[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283296]I mean, for example, the Chiefs in week 16 against Oakland. That game can boost the Jets SOV and it isn't included.[/QUOTE]

It is included... You may have missed it, because like an idiot, I originally wrote Chiefs Vs Broncos. (also, Cowboys Vs. Eagles is the first item mentioned for the Jets)

I separated Jets/Bengals.

fivewide · 12-19-2011, 10:44 AM

[QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283230]Here are the updated numbers assuming both teams win out:

The Chargers win over the Ravens today was a MASSIVE help for the Jets as it served as a 2 game swing.[/QUOTE]

Interestingly, while increasing the SOV from probably mid 90's to high 90's, it overally negatively affected the Jets playoff chances. Before the game we were 52% and now we are 49%. The reason is beacuse this puts SD in play at 9-7. While we did beat them, a multi team tie at 9-7 would negate head to head results unless we had beaten all temas involved.

AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite · 12-19-2011, 10:44 AM

[QUOTE=C Mart;4283299]fwiw

[URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/TheJetsStream"]TheJetsStream[/URL] Manish Mehta
It's a virtual mathematical certainty Jets will make playoffs if they win last 2 gms due to (likely) better strength of victory over Bengals[/QUOTE]

Manish has been reading JI...

BIGKIDD325 · 12-19-2011, 10:45 AM

The Bengals need to gain ground. There are 18 games that can tip the scale in favor of either the Jets or Bengals. Here they are with rooting interests for the Bengals:

Texans @ [B]Colts[/B]
[B]Broncos[/B] @ Bills
Raiders @ [B]Chiefs[/B]
Dolphins @ [B]Patriots[/B] (Jets 2x)
[B]Browns[/B] @ Ravens
[B]Vikings[/B] @ Redskins
[B]Rams[/B] @ Steelers
Chargers @ [B]Lions[/B]
[B]Eagles[/B] @ Cowboys
49ers @ [B]Seahawks[/B]

Steelers @ [B]Browns[/B] (Bengals 2x)
Redskins @ [B]Eagles[/B]
[B]Colts[/B] @ Jaguars
Bills @ [B]Patriots[/B]
49ers @ [B]Rams[/B]
[B]Titans[/B] @ Texans
Chiefs @ [B]Broncos[/B]
Chargers @ [B]Raiders[/B]

The Bengals need to be +3 at the end of the 2 weeks in these games in order to tie. Anymore and they win SOV.

SMC · 12-19-2011, 11:07 AM

I realy don't see how the Jets don't control they're own destiny based on SOV.

Currently, the Bengals' opponents which they have beat have a 34-78 record while the Jets' opponents which they have beat have a 45-67 record.

A lot of the Bengals' victories come against teams that play each other the last 2 weeks (Ravens/Browns, Cards/Seahawks, etc.), so the Bengals won't get the benefit of a SOV boost from them because it's a zero sum gain.

SMC · 12-19-2011, 11:09 AM

[QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283309]It is included... You may have missed it, because like an idiot, I originally wrote Chiefs Vs Broncos. (also, Cowboys Vs. Eagles is the first item mentioned for the Jets)

I separated Jets/Bengals.[/QUOTE]

It's complicated. But just an FYI, you had the Bengals beating the Niners. They lost to the Niners.

revischrist · 12-19-2011, 11:16 AM

[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283306]That's flat out not true.[/QUOTE]

The program runs the scenarios millions of times and every single one had the Jets making the playoffs if they win out (after the Chargers just beat the Ravens) Just sayin'

BIGKIDD325 · 12-19-2011, 11:19 AM

[QUOTE=SMC;4283359]I realy don't see how the Jets don't control they're own destiny based on SOV.

Currently, the Bengals' opponents which they have beat have a 34-78 record while the Jets' opponents which they have beat have a 45-67 record.

A lot of the Bengals' victories come against teams that play each other the last 2 weeks (Ravens/Browns, Cards/Seahawks, etc.), so the Bengals won't get the benefit of a SOV boost from them because it's a zero sum gain.[/QUOTE]
By beating the Dolphins the Jets lower their SOV, and by beating the Cardinals and Ravens, the Bengals raise their. Before you count the games that can change SOV, the Jets opponents they beat will have 58 wins, and the Bengals will have 55.

BIGKIDD325 · 12-19-2011, 11:20 AM

[QUOTE=revischrist;4283373]The program runs the scenarios millions of times and every single one had the Jets making the playoffs if they win out (after the Chargers just beat the Ravens) Just sayin'[/QUOTE]
Read the top post. There is a chance the Jets don't win the tiebreaker.

CV 40 · 12-19-2011, 11:22 AM

What happens when the Jets lose to the Giants and the Bengals lose to the Ravens?

Thats the likely scenario. Then the Bengals dont matter anymore.i

IM3 · 12-19-2011, 11:23 AM

[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283380]Read the top post. There is a chance the Jets don't win the tiebreaker.[/QUOTE]

A lot would have to break right for the Bengals to win, its doable but would be a longshot.

And they would have to beat a Ravens team that is pretty much going to be playing for the division, even if the Steelers have a 1 game lead they would still have to win to put pressure on them.

revischrist · 12-19-2011, 11:24 AM

[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283380]Read the top post. There is a chance the Jets don't win the tiebreaker.[/QUOTE]

So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?

IM3 · 12-19-2011, 11:25 AM

[QUOTE=CV 40;4283386]What happens when the Jets lose to the Giants and the Bengals lose to the Ravens?

Thats the likely scenario. Then the Bengals dont matter anymore.i[/QUOTE]

Jets would own the tiebreaker if they beat Miami, but the Titans would also need to lose a game, and Oakland would have to lose a game or the Broncos would have to lose their remaining two games.

But then SD can get involved in 3 team tiebreakers which we could lose, we just need to win the next 2 games.

Batmans A Scientist · 12-19-2011, 11:25 AM

[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283327]
The Bengals need to be +3 at the end of the 2 weeks in these games in order to tie. Anymore and they win SOV.[/QUOTE]

True. But the Bengals have to pick up 3 games here alone:

Texans @ [B]Colts[/B]
[B]Browns[/B] @ Ravens (+2 for Browns Win, +1 for Ravens win)
[B]Rams[/B] @ Steelers
49ers @ [B]Seahawks[/B]
Steelers @ [B]Browns[/B] (+2 for Browns Win)
[B]Colts[/B] @ Jaguars
49ers @ [B]Rams[/B]
[B]Titans[/B] @ Texans

Bold faced teams need 3 more wins than the following:

Broncos @ [B] Bills [/B]
[B]Dolphins[/B] @ Patriots(Jets get +2 for Dolphins Win)
Vikings @ [B]Redskins[/B]
Raiders @ [B] Chiefs [/B]
[B]Chargers [/B] @Lions
Eagles@[B] Cowboys [/B]
[B]Redskins [/B] @ Eagles
[B]Bills [/B] @ Patriots
[B]Chiefs [/B]@ Broncos
[B]Chargers [/B] @ Raiders

This is for people who are still confused, I'm confident BigKidd gets it

For example: The top group of bold faced teams need to pick up 5 more victories (Each Browns win counts 2x), than the bottom group of teams (Dolphins win vs. NE counts 2x)

[B]Note[/B]: I believe the following are guaranteed gains: Kidd, let me know if I'm missing any, I have it Jets 57 Wins (Including winning out) Bengals 51 Wins (Including winning out). With the Bengals picking up 1 win guaranteed.

Bengals:
Cle @ Bal
Sea @ Ari

Jets:
Dal @ NYG

IM3 · 12-19-2011, 11:29 AM

[QUOTE=revischrist;4283390]So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?[/QUOTE]

Bengals odds of winning out are probably 15-20% at best (Ravens and Cardinals at home.

The Bengals odds of winning the SOV are around 10-15% give or take (according to non-mathematical projections)

Giving the Bengals the benefit of the doubt its probably a 97% chance at the playoffs if the Jets win out

tedtedthefootballhead · 12-19-2011, 11:31 AM

you got to be fricken kidding me......the fact that some of youze guys actually know how to count and figure out all this SOV crap has given me a headache.

If it ever came down to the coin flip tie breaker, you guy's would be analyzing he odds of heads vs. tails in Goodell's office on a Tuesday with the sun shining and the window open and the temps in the 40's. But how do the odds change if the window was closed, or the temps were in the 30's? Or Goodell washed his hands with plain soap vs moisturized soap?

Go ahead, say it. I'm an ass.

fivewide · 12-19-2011, 11:32 AM

[QUOTE=revischrist;4283390]So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?[/QUOTE]

around 200-1

JetsCrazey · 12-19-2011, 11:37 AM

[URL="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400"]http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400[/URL]

I found a scenario where the Jets go 2-0 and miss the playoffs. Click the link for details on the Yahoo scenario generator

Basically it's something like 99.9% that the Jets control their own destiny but not exactly 100%

12-19-2011, 11:25 AM	#36
Batmans A Scientist Watching the American East Championship All Pro Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Manhattan, NY Posts: 8,512	[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283327] The Bengals need to be +3 at the end of the 2 weeks in these games in order to tie. Anymore and they win SOV.[/QUOTE] True. But the Bengals have to pick up 3 games here alone: Texans @ [B]Colts[/B] [B]Browns[/B] @ Ravens (+2 for Browns Win, +1 for Ravens win) [B]Rams[/B] @ Steelers 49ers @ [B]Seahawks[/B] Steelers @ [B]Browns[/B] (+2 for Browns Win) [B]Colts[/B] @ Jaguars 49ers @ [B]Rams[/B] [B]Titans[/B] @ Texans Bold faced teams need 3 more wins than the following: Broncos @ [B] Bills [/B] [B]Dolphins[/B] @ Patriots(Jets get +2 for Dolphins Win) Vikings @ [B]Redskins[/B] Raiders @ [B] Chiefs [/B] [B]Chargers [/B] @Lions Eagles@[B] Cowboys [/B] [B]Redskins [/B] @ Eagles [B]Bills [/B] @ Patriots [B]Chiefs [/B]@ Broncos [B]Chargers [/B] @ Raiders This is for people who are still confused, I'm confident BigKidd gets it For example: The top group of bold faced teams need to pick up 5 more victories (Each Browns win counts 2x), than the bottom group of teams (Dolphins win vs. NE counts 2x) [B]Note[/B]: I believe the following are guaranteed gains: Kidd, let me know if I'm missing any, I have it Jets 57 Wins (Including winning out) Bengals 51 Wins (Including winning out). With the Bengals picking up 1 win guaranteed. Bengals: Cle @ Bal Sea @ Ari Jets: Dal @ NYG Last edited by Batmans A Scientist; 12-19-2011 at 11:37 AM.

12-19-2011, 10:33 AM	#21
BIGKIDD325 #helloplayoffs All League Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,617	[QUOTE=revischrist;4283301]LOL, this guy has been doing this for years and gives the Jets a 100 PERCENT chance of making the playoffs if they win out. Once the chargers beat the Ravens the odds went frmo 99.7 to 100 percent. [url]http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/NYJets.html[/url][/QUOTE] That's flat out not true.

12-19-2011, 10:33 AM	#22
sec.101row23 All Pro Join Date: May 2005 Location: Mendham, NJ Posts: 7,847	Basically just root for every team the Jets BEAT this season to win.

12-19-2011, 10:44 AM	#24
fivewide Practice Squad Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 412	[QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283230]Here are the updated numbers assuming both teams win out: The Chargers win over the Ravens today was a MASSIVE help for the Jets as it served as a 2 game swing.[/QUOTE] Interestingly, while increasing the SOV from probably mid 90's to high 90's, it overally negatively affected the Jets playoff chances. Before the game we were 52% and now we are 49%. The reason is beacuse this puts SD in play at 9-7. While we did beat them, a multi team tie at 9-7 would negate head to head results unless we had beaten all temas involved.

12-19-2011, 10:44 AM	#25
AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite is all out of fuCks to give... All Pro Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 7,450	[QUOTE=C Mart;4283299]fwiw [URL="https://twitter.com/#%21/TheJetsStream"]TheJetsStream[/URL] Manish Mehta It's a virtual mathematical certainty Jets will make playoffs if they win last 2 gms due to (likely) better strength of victory over Bengals[/QUOTE] Manish has been reading JI...

12-19-2011, 10:45 AM	#26
BIGKIDD325 #helloplayoffs All League Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,617	The Bengals need to gain ground. There are 18 games that can tip the scale in favor of either the Jets or Bengals. Here they are with rooting interests for the Bengals: Texans @ [B]Colts[/B] [B]Broncos[/B] @ Bills Raiders @ [B]Chiefs[/B] Dolphins @ [B]Patriots[/B] (Jets 2x) [B]Browns[/B] @ Ravens [B]Vikings[/B] @ Redskins [B]Rams[/B] @ Steelers Chargers @ [B]Lions[/B] [B]Eagles[/B] @ Cowboys 49ers @ [B]Seahawks[/B] Steelers @ [B]Browns[/B] (Bengals 2x) Redskins @ [B]Eagles[/B] [B]Colts[/B] @ Jaguars Bills @ [B]Patriots[/B] 49ers @ [B]Rams[/B] [B]Titans[/B] @ Texans Chiefs @ [B]Broncos[/B] Chargers @ [B]Raiders[/B] The Bengals need to be +3 at the end of the 2 weeks in these games in order to tie. Anymore and they win SOV.

12-19-2011, 11:07 AM	#27
SMC Day-to-day Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 22,032	I realy don't see how the Jets don't control they're own destiny based on SOV. Currently, the Bengals' opponents which they have beat have a 34-78 record while the Jets' opponents which they have beat have a 45-67 record. A lot of the Bengals' victories come against teams that play each other the last 2 weeks (Ravens/Browns, Cards/Seahawks, etc.), so the Bengals won't get the benefit of a SOV boost from them because it's a zero sum gain.

12-19-2011, 11:09 AM	#28
SMC Day-to-day Jets Insider VIP Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 22,032	[QUOTE=Batmans A Scientist;4283309]It is included... You may have missed it, because like an idiot, I originally wrote Chiefs Vs Broncos. (also, Cowboys Vs. Eagles is the first item mentioned for the Jets) I separated Jets/Bengals.[/QUOTE] It's complicated. But just an FYI, you had the Bengals beating the Niners. They lost to the Niners.

12-19-2011, 11:16 AM	#29
revischrist Dee Best! Veteran Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,729	[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283306]That's flat out not true.[/QUOTE] The program runs the scenarios millions of times and every single one had the Jets making the playoffs if they win out (after the Chargers just beat the Ravens) Just sayin'

12-19-2011, 11:19 AM	#30
BIGKIDD325 #helloplayoffs All League Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,617	[QUOTE=SMC;4283359]I realy don't see how the Jets don't control they're own destiny based on SOV. Currently, the Bengals' opponents which they have beat have a 34-78 record while the Jets' opponents which they have beat have a 45-67 record. A lot of the Bengals' victories come against teams that play each other the last 2 weeks (Ravens/Browns, Cards/Seahawks, etc.), so the Bengals won't get the benefit of a SOV boost from them because it's a zero sum gain.[/QUOTE] By beating the Dolphins the Jets lower their SOV, and by beating the Cardinals and Ravens, the Bengals raise their. Before you count the games that can change SOV, the Jets opponents they beat will have 58 wins, and the Bengals will have 55.

12-19-2011, 11:20 AM	#31
BIGKIDD325 #helloplayoffs All League Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,617	[QUOTE=revischrist;4283373]The program runs the scenarios millions of times and every single one had the Jets making the playoffs if they win out (after the Chargers just beat the Ravens) Just sayin'[/QUOTE] Read the top post. There is a chance the Jets don't win the tiebreaker.

12-19-2011, 11:22 AM	#32
CV 40 All League Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Lynbrook, NY Posts: 2,885	What happens when the Jets lose to the Giants and the Bengals lose to the Ravens? Thats the likely scenario. Then the Bengals dont matter anymore.i

12-19-2011, 11:23 AM	#33
IM3 SMH Hall Of Fame Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 22,491	[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283380]Read the top post. There is a chance the Jets don't win the tiebreaker.[/QUOTE] A lot would have to break right for the Bengals to win, its doable but would be a longshot. And they would have to beat a Ravens team that is pretty much going to be playing for the division, even if the Steelers have a 1 game lead they would still have to win to put pressure on them.

12-19-2011, 11:24 AM	#34
revischrist Dee Best! Veteran Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,729	[QUOTE=BIGKIDD325;4283380]Read the top post. There is a chance the Jets don't win the tiebreaker.[/QUOTE] So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?

12-19-2011, 11:29 AM	#37
IM3 SMH Hall Of Fame Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 22,491	[QUOTE=revischrist;4283390]So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?[/QUOTE] Bengals odds of winning out are probably 15-20% at best (Ravens and Cardinals at home. The Bengals odds of winning the SOV are around 10-15% give or take (according to non-mathematical projections) Giving the Bengals the benefit of the doubt its probably a 97% chance at the playoffs if the Jets win out

12-19-2011, 11:31 AM	#38
tedtedthefootballhead Are the J.E.T.S. ready for the next level? (Hopefully before I DIE) All League Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: East Windsor NJ, Brooklyn born & raised Posts: 4,965	you got to be fricken kidding me......the fact that some of youze guys actually know how to count and figure out all this SOV crap has given me a headache. If it ever came down to the coin flip tie breaker, you guy's would be analyzing he odds of heads vs. tails in Goodell's office on a Tuesday with the sun shining and the window open and the temps in the 40's. But how do the odds change if the window was closed, or the temps were in the 30's? Or Goodell washed his hands with plain soap vs moisturized soap? Go ahead, say it. I'm an ass.

12-19-2011, 11:32 AM	#39
fivewide Practice Squad Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 412	[QUOTE=revischrist;4283390]So what would you put the odds on the Jets missing the playoffs despite going 2-0?[/QUOTE] around 200-1

12-19-2011, 11:37 AM	#40
JetsCrazey All League Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 2,664	[URL="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400"]http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=50154154&15=04041044&16=54414400[/URL] I found a scenario where the Jets go 2-0 and miss the playoffs. Click the link for details on the Yahoo scenario generator Basically it's something like 99.9% that the Jets control their own destiny but not exactly 100%