The 2012 Race up to Now

Buster · 06-30-2012, 11:31 AM

http://www.creators.com/opinion/mark...up-to-now.html

Quote:

Richard M. Nixon is one of only two Americans to be nominated five times for national office by one of the country's two major political parties. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the other. Both FDR and Nixon had identical records in their national campaigns: four wins and only one defeat.

So when Richard Nixon talked about American political elections, he was frequently worth listening to. Consider this insight of his: "It doesn't matter if they knock down the wall when they vote for you or hold their nose. It all counts the same."

The most recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal national poll reminded me of that Nixon dictum. Even after disappointing U.S. job numbers, increased American anxiety from the unpredictability of the European economic situation and the solid victory of Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker, President Barack Obama still leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 47 to 44 percent.

When respondents were asked if their presidential choice was more a vote FOR the candidate they were supporting or more a vote more AGAINST his opponent, the results totally differed. Seventy-two percent of Obama supporters said theirs was more a vote FOR Obama, and just 22 percent revealed theirs was basically a vote AGAINST Romney.

Romney supporters are just the opposite. Only 35 percent of the probable Republican nominee's backers say they are voting more FOR Mitt Romney, while a full 58 percent of GOP voters admit they are motivated primarily by voting AGAINST President Obama. But as Nixon would remind us of those choices, they all count the same.

Because the NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey is written, conducted and analyzed by two of the nation's most respected pollsters, Democrat Peter D. Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, I know it is straight and free of partisan tilt. Their three most recent surveys — April, May and June — found the race to be close.

Obama led Romney 49 percent to 43 percent in April; Obama's May lead was 47 percent to 43 percent; while in June, the president led his Republican challenger by 47 percent to 44 percent. The race is within the margin of error, which has to be good news for the challenger whose reputation was not enhanced following his primary season struggles against a flawed field of opponents.

But the news may be even better for Romney if you look at the voters who declare themselves undecided in the presidential race. The undecided voters were 8 percent of the total sample in April, 10 percent in May and 9 percent in June — an average undecided of 9 percent. (By way of comparison, the margin of victory in every U.S. presidential election since 1984 has been less than 9 percent.)

Thanks to Robert Nelson of Peter D. Hart's office, I was able to look at who all these undecided voters were in the NBC News-Wall Street Journal polls for April, May and June. Their portrait provides cold comfort to Obama headquarters.

Consider these facts: When asked, "Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president," 47 percent of the total sample interviewed gave Obama a positive rating, while 48 percent disapproved of the job he was doing. Among the undecided voters, the president's numbers were 24 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval.

Asked to rate their own feelings toward the president as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or very negative, the total results were 48 percent positive and 38 percent negative for Barack Obama. But the undecideds' positive feelings toward the president were just 28 percent, and their negative feelings were 40 percent.

Romney's numbers were nothing to write home about. But the point is that the undecided voters are, as of now, not really undecided about Barack Obama. They are, with just over four months until Election Day, down on the incumbent, which is why getting to 50 percent plus in the national surveys is key to the president's re-election.

To find out more about Mark Shields and read his past columns, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM

COPYRIGHT 2012 MARK SHIELDS

AlbanyJet · 07-01-2012, 10:44 AM

The only poll that matters right now is the Right Track - Wrong Track Poll:

And Barack Obama has MAJOR trouble!

Only 27% of likely voters think that the USA is on the Right Track. And with monthly jobs and economic numbers coming in bad, we can expect that 27% to be Obama's ceiling.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...or_wrong_track

Jetdawgg · 07-01-2012, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

The only poll that matters right now is the Right Track - Wrong Track Poll:

And Barack Obama has MAJOR trouble!

Only 27% of likely voters think that the USA is on the Right Track. And with monthly jobs and economic numbers coming in bad, we can expect that 27% to be Obama's ceiling.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...or_wrong_track

Still better than Bush in '08. by about 30%. s just what are you saying?

http://abcnews.go.com/images/Polling...Bush-Track.pdf

AlbanyJet · 07-01-2012, 11:22 AM

Near as I can tell when Bush was facing reelection in 2004 the Right Track was about 50% and the Wrong Track was about 50%.

Obama's reelection numbers indicate 27% Right Track and 65% Wrong Track.

Jetdawgg · 07-01-2012, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

Near as I can tell when Bush was facing reelection in 2004 the Right Track was about 50% and the Wrong Track was about 50%.

Obama's reelection numbers indicate 27% Right Track and 65% Wrong Track.

The republicans were still running for POTUS in '08 even if it was not Bush. The data you posted shows that President Obama has moved America 30% higher than Bush had done.

It is clear that Bush left us in a deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep
hole.

To expect any POTUS to move us much more than this from where the republican POTUS left us is outrageous.

How about using some logic and reason with your arguments?

AlbanyJet · 07-01-2012, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetdawgg

The republicans were still running for POTUS in '08 even if it was not Bush. The data you posted shows that President Obama has moved America 30% higher than Bush had done.

It is clear that Bush left us in a deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep
hole.

To expect any POTUS to move us much more than this from where the republican POTUS left us is outrageous.

How about using some logic and reason with your arguments?

The Bottom Line: 27% Right Track belongs entirely-exculsively to President Barack Obama. And when it comes to reelections 27% Right Track for an incumbent is a very, very bad sign for them!

K?

DeanPatsFan · 07-01-2012, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetdawgg

To expect any POTUS to move us much more than this from where the republican POTUS left us is outrageous.

How about using some logic and reason with your arguments?

LOL......

detectivekimble · 07-01-2012, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

The Bottom Line: 27% Right Track belongs entirely-exculsively to President Barack Obama. And when it comes to reelections 27% Right Track for an incumbent is a very, very bad sign for them!

K?

. . . and he'll still beat that douche Romney in November.

MnJetFan · 07-01-2012, 10:07 PM

The onl douchebags are ones still waiting for hope and change! BTW didn't Obama say his plan would not raise taxes for people making under 250 Grand.
More LIES If it stinks like a Tax, Talks like a Tax it is a TAX. Obama LIES Again!

chiefst2000 · 07-01-2012, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by detectivekimble

. . . and he'll still beat that douche Romney in November.

Great contribution.

chiefst2000 · 07-01-2012, 11:00 PM

The healthcare law awoke a sleeping giant in 2010. The SCOTUS lulled them back to sleep when it was expected that they would throw out the law. Make no mistake that people simply figured the law was done for.

Essentially the ACA screws 250Million Americans that are currently insured. There is no other way to look at this. They gave the shaft to 250 million people. They got a law which in Barrys own words wont change a thing about their insurance. Oh except for higher costs, new taxes, lower quality of care, less access to physicians and trillions in new deficits. As a bonus there is incentive to simply drop insurance and pay the much smaller tax because the law allows you to simply get on a plan after you get sick. Once that effect kicks in it will drive the prices up further forcing more people to game the system by simply not carring the insurance. It was a bad idea put forth by people that lack common sense. All but the staunchest liberals hate it. Many people still have no idea how bad it is.

It looks like there will be plenty of cash available for conservatives to drive that point home. I see this SCOTUS decision backfiring on Obama because even people that may like him dont like this awful law. This is the kind of stuff that effects every single American. Pair that with the faltering economy and many many other negatives for Obama. I think by the time the conventions come around and people start paying attention this will not be a close election at all.

detectivekimble · 07-02-2012, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

Great contribution.

No chance in hell Romney wins. Bush thoroughly ****ed everything up and the majority of voters know that. Obama has been dealing with that *******'s mess for the last four years or so. The majority of voters also know that.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

If you think Romney is going to win, you're living in la-la land. Hopefully you'll be able to accept reality in November.

Also, I like when republicans try to blame Obama for the economy. Too bad for you that the voters don't actually believe that.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...85D0XI20120614

sackdance · 07-02-2012, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetdawgg

How about using some logic and reason with your arguments?

That would be reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeealy appreciated.

sackdance · 07-02-2012, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by detectivekimble

Also, I like when republicans try to blame Obama for the economy. Too bad for you that the voters don't actually believe that.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...85D0XI20120614

Hey detective, 51% of Independents blame Obama for today's economic problems. Good luck!

Meanwhile Keith Olbermann on Romney: ‘This is the wrong time to be running as a businessman'... LOL.

cr726 · 07-02-2012, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefst2000

Great contribution.

Someone has to counter MN.

JetPotato · 07-02-2012, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cr726

Someone has to counter MN.

Oh stop. We could never replace you.

cr726 · 07-02-2012, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetPotato

Oh stop. We could never replace you.

WE? You, Palmetto and Jungle aka the arrogant ones?

JetPotato · 07-02-2012, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cr726

WE? You, Palmetto and Jungle aka the arrogant ones?

The board.

You've been the ying to Mn's yang for quite a while now. We need you for balance. I'm defending your place here, bud. Relax.

Two pees in a pod. No one wants to see that broken up.

cr726 · 07-02-2012, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetPotato

The board.

You've been the ying to Mn's yang for quite a while now. We need you for balance. I'm defending your place here, bud. Relax.

Two pees in a pod. No one wants to see that broken up.

Jungle Shift Jet · 07-02-2012, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cr726

WE? You, Palmetto and Jungle aka the arrogant ones?

Just because WF calls all the people more informed and smarter 'n him arrogant doesn't mean you gotta copy him!

07-01-2012, 10:44 AM	#2
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	The only poll that matters right now is the Right Track - Wrong Track Poll: And Barack Obama has MAJOR trouble! Only 27% of likely voters think that the USA is on the Right Track. And with monthly jobs and economic numbers coming in bad, we can expect that 27% to be Obama's ceiling. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...or_wrong_track

07-01-2012, 11:22 AM	#4
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	Near as I can tell when Bush was facing reelection in 2004 the Right Track was about 50% and the Wrong Track was about 50%. Obama's reelection numbers indicate 27% Right Track and 65% Wrong Track.

07-01-2012, 10:07 PM	#9
MnJetFan All League Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 4,302	The onl douchebags are ones still waiting for hope and change! BTW didn't Obama say his plan would not raise taxes for people making under 250 Grand. More LIES If it stinks like a Tax, Talks like a Tax it is a TAX. Obama LIES Again!

07-01-2012, 11:00 PM	#11
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,820	The healthcare law awoke a sleeping giant in 2010. The SCOTUS lulled them back to sleep when it was expected that they would throw out the law. Make no mistake that people simply figured the law was done for. Essentially the ACA screws 250Million Americans that are currently insured. There is no other way to look at this. They gave the shaft to 250 million people. They got a law which in Barrys own words wont change a thing about their insurance. Oh except for higher costs, new taxes, lower quality of care, less access to physicians and trillions in new deficits. As a bonus there is incentive to simply drop insurance and pay the much smaller tax because the law allows you to simply get on a plan after you get sick. Once that effect kicks in it will drive the prices up further forcing more people to game the system by simply not carring the insurance. It was a bad idea put forth by people that lack common sense. All but the staunchest liberals hate it. Many people still have no idea how bad it is. It looks like there will be plenty of cash available for conservatives to drive that point home. I see this SCOTUS decision backfiring on Obama because even people that may like him dont like this awful law. This is the kind of stuff that effects every single American. Pair that with the faltering economy and many many other negatives for Obama. I think by the time the conventions come around and people start paying attention this will not be a close election at all.