Has Philip Rivers peaked?

John_0515 · 07-06-2012, 01:21 PM

I posted the entire article, which is long, but pretty good. I don't like the way he says "Rivers has peaked", which may be the case - but couldn't he just have had a bad year last year? He's still in his prime, IMO.

Regardless, I find the Jaworski back and forth a little telling as to his inconsistency as an analyst.

A lot of deflections and bounces, but it appears Rivers had a lot of poor passes last year.

Thoughts?

Quote:

Has Philip Rivers Peaked?

By Evan Silva

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers tied for third in the NFL in interceptions in 2011, an out-of-character distinction for one of the league's most historically efficient passers. In-season rumors swirled that Rivers was hiding an injury, speculation both he and the Chargers' organization adamantly refuted. In late November, ESPN's Adam Schefter published a story stating that "numerous NFL executives and coaches around the league" believed something was wrong. "Based on the opinion of people around the league," wrote Schefter, "Rivers has to be playing hurt, no matter how much he denies it."

The rumors died down when Rivers finished statistically strong, posting a 12:3 TD-to-INT ratio in the Chargers' final six games. Having studied the game tape closely, NFL Films guru Greg Cosell has since attributed Rivers' career-high interception total to struggles with "accuracy and decision making." So perhaps Rivers wasn't hurt. He was just playing like it.

I want to feel confident about my own Philip Rivers evaluation heading into the 2012 season, so I took time out to review every interception he threw last year. A detailed breakdown of each pick can be found on the next page. Here were my takeaways after viewing those 20 throws, in addition to many others over the course of Rivers' 2011 season:

1. Vincent Jackson was by far the most oft-targeted receiver on Rivers' picks.

Jackson was the intended receiver on nine of Rivers' 2011 interceptions. Rivers looked for Antonio Gates four times among the 20. Patrick Crayton and Ryan Mathews tied for "third" at two targeted picks apiece, while Mike Tolbert and Malcom Floyd each had one. On the final Rivers interception, he had no one open downfield against the Bears and appeared to be trying to throw the ball away. CB Corey Graham aggressively closed on Rivers' carelessly thrown pass and dove to pick it off.

I watched every single one repeatedly, and I'm not sure the fact that so many interceptions were intended for Jackson means a whole lot. The majority of the Jackson picks came on relatively low-percentage, shot-play attempts downfield. The Chargers were gambling anyway. And they just lost. Many were underthrown or simply off the mark, meaning they were Rivers' fault -- not Jackson's.

2. A large majority of Rivers' INTs came on underthrown or errant passes.

I charted all 20 picks and assigned a descriptive word or phrase to each. Five were assigned "great play" by the defender. One was bad luck, as Jackson lost Rivers' pass in the lights on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. One was dropped by Patrick Crayton and tipped into Broncos CB Cassius Vaughn's hands. Each of the remaining 13 were either described as "errant," "floated," or "underthrown" passes. A healthy, heavy majority of Rivers' interceptions were on him.

I'm not sure Rivers could ever have been characterized as possessing a power arm. He throws with a sort of shot-putty style, pushing the football in a three-quarters motion and relying on torque from his lower body. But Rivers wasn't getting any zip on his passes last year, and I don't think that issue was resolved at any point in the season. His short and intermediate throws were sitting ducks, and his deep balls were dying.

When a quarterback fails to put necessary velocity on throws, defenders become more capable of getting their hands on the football. This is easy to understand. Defensive backs, linebackers, and even some defensive linemen are quick-twitch reactors, and they jump all over balls floating through the air. Interceptions result when defenders get good breaks on passes. They're even more common when the throws miss intended receivers.

3. Pressure from the defense rarely played a role in Rivers being intercepted.

Rivers was under heavy pressure just once when he was intercepted in 2011 -- on his first pick of the year. In Week 1, Vikings LE Brian Robison bent the edge on a speed move around Chargers RT Jeromey Clary and got his hand on Rivers' right arm, obstructing the quarterback's throwing motion. The ball popped into the air and was caught by CB Antoine Winfield. Rivers was most commonly intercepted when he had a clean pocket. Football Outsiders graded San Diego's offensive line as a top-nine unit in pass protection, and I don't think poor play from the front five was to blame.

4. People were talking about Rivers' struggles much more during the season than they are now.

I find this fascinating. ESPN's Ron Jaworski is a tape junky, and his recent ranking of Rivers as the seventh-best quarterback in football contained zero negative commentary on Jaws' SportsCenter presentation discussing the Chargers' ninth-year quarterback. Jaworski was singing an entirely different tune last year, attributing Rivers' struggles to inaccuracy and poor decision making. NFL Network's Mike Mayock, ESPN's Merril Hoge, and ESPN Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson were all outspoken about Rivers' struggles over the course of last season. No one talks about it anymore.

5. Rivers quieted questioners with a pick-free month late in the year.

Rivers was sitting on a league-high 17 interceptions through ten games. He then strung together four straight pick-less weeks in late November and December, before throwing three more INTs against Detroit and Oakland in Weeks 16 and 17.

During the interception-free stretch, Rivers played poorly against Denver, before lighting up Buffalo and a Jacksonville defense that had lost roughly half its starters to injured reserve, including both first-team cornerbacks. Rivers protected the ball well in a 34-14 Week 15 win over Baltimore, as Ryan Mathews piled up 109 total yards and two scores on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers got creamed by Detroit the following week -- Rivers was picked twice -- before closing out the year with a 38-26 win at The Black Hole.

I went back and watched every Rivers throw from the Ravens game, before publishing this column. I think Rivers is capable of delivering the football accurately to open receivers. I think his velocity was still a problem, late in the season. And I think the Chargers know it.

6. It's worth wondering whether we've seen the best of Philip Rivers.

That sound you heard coming out of Chargers Park all spring and summer was the organization pumping up third-year running back Ryan Mathews. The Chargers want Mathews to emerge as a true workhorse, and perhaps even to lead the NFL in rushing attempts, if coach Norv Turner's comparison to 2002-2003 Ricky Williams is to be believed. San Diego should want better play from Mathews, but is there more to it? Are the Chargers eyeing a new offensive centerpiece?

Rivers is going on age 31, and I think it's fair to wonder if we've seen the best he's got. I think it's a distinct possibility that Rivers has peaked, particularly if his velocity doesn't return this season. His pass attempts to the intermediate sections of the field floated throughout last year, lacking zip. His bomb tries were all too often underthrown, frequently dying at the end of their trajectory. Can Rivers still be a 25-plus touchdown quarterback, complete passes to open receivers, and lead San Diego to plenty of 2012 wins? I'd say so, absolutely. I'm just not sure if he's going to get any better.

Quote:

Breakdown of Rivers' Interceptions:

Week 1 versus Minnesota (2)

2nd Q (:10) -- Attempting to connect with Antonio Gates on a hitch route, Rivers' arm was obstructed as he threw by Vikings LE Brian Robison, who beat Chargers RT Jeromey Clary around the edge on a speed move. The football rainbowed into the hands of Vikings CB Antoine Winfield.

3rd Q (2:43) -- Rivers took C Nick Hardwick's shotgun snap and stared down RB Ryan Mathews, who was running a flat route out of the backfield. Vikings RE Jared Allen had Mathews covered and read the play all the way. Allen caught the interception cleanly, and returned it 14 yards downfield.

Week 2 at New England (2)

2nd Q (:19) -- Rivers took a quick three-step drop out of the shotgun and targeted RB Mike Tolbert on a flat route down the right hashmark. Pats NT Vince Wilfork read Rivers' eyes and jumped the route, tipping the pass into the air and to himself before returning it 36 yards to the Chargers' 30.

3rd Q (4:42) -- With his first read (Vincent Jackson) covered, Rivers forced a pass down the seam to Gates on a crossing route. Patriots S Sergio Brown picked up Gates in zone coverage and picked off Rivers' pass. Notably, CBS commentator Phil Simms remarked afterwards that Rivers appeared to "take something off the football. I thought (Gates) was open. But it took too long to get there."

Week 3 versus Kansas City (2)

1st Q (7:23) -- On third-and-eight, Rivers threw off his back foot and into double coverage, targeting Jackson on a deep corner route. The obviously underthrown pass was easily picked by Chiefs FS Kendrick Lewis. Rivers complained to the referees that CB Javier Arenas interfered with Jackson.

2nd Q (5:59) -- Challenging the defense deep from a clean pocket, Rivers overthrew Malcom Floyd 60 yards downfield and Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers intercepted the pass over his left shoulder. Rivers did show plenty of vertical arm power on the pass, but that's different from sheer velocity.

Week 5 at Denver (1)

1st Q (6:10) -- Lined up in the shotgun, Rivers flinged a pass into the slot intended for Patrick Crayton. While Rivers' pass was a bit behind the slanting Crayton, the football bounced off his hands and into CB Cassius Vaughn's, who returned it to the house. This pick was on Crayton.

Week 7 at Jets (2)

4th Q (11:09) -- Rivers targeted Jackson on a shallow cross over the middle, but the pass was too far behind its intended receiver, deflecting off Jackson's right arm and into the hands of CB Darrelle Revis. Even though the football hit Jackson's body, Rivers' ball placement was poor on the play.

4th Q (5:34) -- Sitting in a squeaky clean pocket, Rivers forced a throw down the middle intended for Jackson. Rivers apparently thought CB Kyle Wilson would break off his slot coverage, because he gunned it on a beeline to the Jets' nickel back, who was stationed directly in front of V-Jax. Wilson had Jackson covered throughout his route, so this seemed like either a poor read or an errant throw.

Week 8 at Kansas City (2)

1st Q (9:04) -- Rivers took a five-step drop after taking the snap from center, and threw deep down the middle for Gates. The pass was badly overthrown and picked off by Chiefs FS Kendrick Lewis. "As I've watched Philip Rivers this year, his ball control has not been good," ESPN's Ron Jaworski stated immediately after the interception, examining the replay. "(Gates) is there, but the ball sails."

1st Q (5:00) -- On third-and-four in the shotgun, Rivers threw short for Jackson over the middle. The ball was deflected by DE Wallace Gilberry at the line, and ILB Derrick Johnson came down with the pass. While Rivers should have had better awareness, Gilberry simply made a big-time play. "That was unlucky," said Jaws. Jon Gruden praised Romeo Crennel for deceptive combination coverages.

Week 9 versus Green Bay (3)

1st Q (4:49) -- Lined up in the shotgun on third-and-seven, Rivers threw behind Antonio Gates deep down the seam. The pass was tipped by Packers ILB Desmond Bishop and into the hands of SS Charlie Peprah, who returned it 40 yards to the house. Poor placement was to blame for this one.

1st Q (2:02) -- Rivers floated an underneath throw to Patrick Crayton on a quick out. Packers CB Tramon Williams jumped the route and easily picked off Rivers, returning the pass 43 yards to pay dirt. FOX analyst Brian Billick credited Packers DC Dom Capers' "trap coverage" for the big play.

4th Q (:33) -- Rivers tried to power a pass into double coverage of Vincent Jackson, but his throw had an egg-beater rotation, lacking velocity. Peprah got a great jump on the ball and intercepted it to seal the win for Green Bay. "Underthrew it, double coverage over the top," Billick observed.

Week 10 versus Oakland (1)

4th Q (3:38) -- Rivers dialed up a 42-yard touchdown bomb attempt in the direction of Vincent Jackson. Jackson lost it in the lights on Thursday Night Football, and wasn't even looking as Rivers' pass was caught in the end zone by Raiders FS Matt Giordano. "You gotta go after the football," NFL Network's Mike Mayock said after the play. We'll chalk this one up to bad luck.

Week 11 at Chicago (2)

4th Q (9:39) -- On third-and-ten, Rivers stepped up in the pocket and wobbled a 16-yard attempt in the direction of Vincent Jackson in scoring position. The pass was underthrown and picked off by Bears S Major Wright five yards deep in the end zone. Chicago had three defenders in the vicinity.

4th Q (1:56) -- Rivers rolled to his right on first-and-ten, and his body language suggested he was trying to throw the ball away. Instead, CB Corey Graham made a diving interception 20 yards downfield. "I am convinced he was trying to throw it away," said Simms. "And he just hooks it."

Week 16 at Detroit (2)

4th Q (4:50) -- Rivers dropped back with strong pass protection, and looked to test deep with Vincent Jackson facing off coverage and a safety over the top. Launching 43 yards downfield, Rivers underthrew his bomb attempt and the pass was picked off by Lions LCB Chris Houston.

4th Q (2:33) -- Rivers wanted to hit Ryan Mathews in the flat, but Lions LE Cliff Avril pushed RT Jeromey Clary backwards and leaped flat-footed into the air, intercepting the short pass. San Diego was backed up toward its own end zone, so Avril walked in untouched for the ten-yard touchdown.

Week 17 at Oakland (1)

1st Q (13:17) -- Rivers made a five-step drop, stepped up in the pocket, and took a shot downfield targeting Jackson. Jackson was surrounded by CB Lito Sheppard and FS Matt Giordano, and Rivers' pass was way off, overthrown and off target to the right. Giordano came down with the pick.

Has Philip Rivers Peaked?

Apache 51 · 07-06-2012, 01:27 PM

He peaked awhile ago, it's not about that it's about having the right guys around you when and if you do.

Bonhomme Richard · 07-06-2012, 01:28 PM

Most overrated QB in the NFL.

Joe W. Namath · 07-06-2012, 01:32 PM

Rivers has nothing at receiver. Gates is washed up. Jackson cant beat anybody and just goes up for jump balls down the field. They have never had a #2 receiver.

Its tough when you do not have speed at the receiving positions and nobody can get open.

DDNYjets · 07-06-2012, 01:33 PM

Yes. He peaked in his 3rd year (1st as starter) and has been great ever since.

His "down year" is 63%, 4600, and 27.

John_0515 · 07-06-2012, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

Yes. He peaked in his 3rd year (1st as starter) and has been great ever since.

His "down year" is 63%, 4600, and 27.

Exactly. I think that the article could easily be "Rivers had a bad year last year".

Having LT back there didn't hurt, but Rivers is better than what he showed in 2011.

DDNYjets · 07-06-2012, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John_0515

Exactly. I think that the article could easily be "Rivers had a bad year last year".

Having LT back there didn't hurt, but Rivers is better than what he showed in 2011.

Rivers is not what is wrong with San Diego. He does everything you want your franchise QB to do. Kid played with a torn ACL for crying out loud.

FF2® · 07-06-2012, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath

Gates is washed up.

I heard he's better than Gronkowski.

Apache 51 · 07-06-2012, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

Rivers is not what is wrong with San Diego. He does everything you want your franchise QB to do. Kid played with a torn ACL for crying out loud.

I could appreciate Rivers doing that, and I like him as a QB, but he isn't going to carry his team he needs lots of help around him just like Sanchez if he even becomes a Rivers type. Sanchez seems to be calm and cool when he needs to be if he could only get back to that point.

ASG0531 · 07-06-2012, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath

Rivers has nothing at receiver. Gates is washed up. Jackson cant beat anybody and just goes up for jump balls down the field. They have never had a #2 receiver.

Its tough when you do not have speed at the receiving positions and nobody can get open.

DWC is predicting Gates wins 1st team all-pro TE in 2012, and has a more productive season than Gronk, so don't tell him this.

DDNYjets · 07-06-2012, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Apache 51

I could appreciate Rivers doing that, and I like him as a QB, but he isn't going to carry his team he needs lots of help around him just like Sanchez if he even becomes a Rivers type. Sanchez seems to be calm and cool when he needs to be if he could only get back to that point.

Stop pointing that gun at me. Makes me afraid to disagree with you.

John_0515 · 07-06-2012, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FF2®

I heard he's better than Gronkowski.

Are no threads immune to making them about the Patriots?

JB1089 · 07-06-2012, 01:47 PM

Not at all. I think someone that produced on the level that Rivers did is entitled to an off year. I think he'll return to form this year. I don't know if he'll get back to the 100+ passer rating level that he was at from '08-'10 (no Vincent Jackson), but he'll be around 95 or so.

Rivers wasn't even the main problem with the Chargers last year, the defense was. If the Chargers playcalling inside the 5 yard line had been a little different, no one would have any concerns about Rivers, as he would have had 30+TDs. The Chargers had 9 rushing TDs from inside the 5 yard line, most of them from Tolbert.

Rivers predictions:

Yards- down
TDs- up
Attempts- down
YPA- flat
Comp %- up
Rating- up

Raider9175 · 07-06-2012, 01:55 PM

Philip rivers hasn't peaked. His oline just wasn't as good as it been in years past. He looked very good when Jared gaither took over LT and seem to stabilize the whole oline.

Philip Rivers has lost alot of his weapons that he used very effective when his wr weren't open .(outlet receivers) Like L Tomlinson, Darren Sproles(see what he did for Saints offense) and antonio Gates hasn't been the same player for years now.

The Chargers oline holds up and he capable of having a big season . The Chargers defense is more a problem than PHilip Rivers and the Chargers offense.

Joe W. Namath · 07-06-2012, 01:56 PM

Quote:

DWC is predicting Gates wins 1st team all-pro TE in 2012, and has a more productive season than Gronk, so don't tell him this.

This is just silly. Gates has a chronic foot issue that is limiting him.

Ruby2 · 07-06-2012, 01:56 PM

Really getting sick of Evan Silva.

Apache 51 · 07-06-2012, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

Stop pointing that gun at me. Makes me afraid to disagree with you.

Shells are reserved strictly for those not wearing Green.

Rivers is not a thinker he is do'er, and QB is a thinking positon. Mark just thinks he can do it all and I think he learned that last year.

Paradis · 07-06-2012, 02:14 PM

i think the coaching staff peaked. And their poor talent evaluators and draft picks have caught up with SD too. Rivers isn't the problem.

Jordy · 07-06-2012, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John_0515

I posted the entire article, which is long, but pretty good. I don't like the way he says "Rivers has peaked", which may be the case - but couldn't he just have had a bad year last year? He's still in his prime, IMO.

Regardless, I find the Jaworski back and forth a little telling as to his inconsistency as an analyst.

A lot of deflections and bounces, but it appears Rivers had a lot of poor passes last year.

Thoughts?

I believe he has peaked...in San Diego.

IMO he's the epitomy of a guy who could very well flourish with a change of scenery.

Must be the air in San Diego.

DDNYjets · 07-06-2012, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jordy

I believe he has peaked...in San Diego.

IMO he's the epitomy of a guy who could very well flourish with a change of scenery.

Must be the air in San Diego.

I would love for him to change coasts.

R for R. Straight up.

07-06-2012, 01:32 PM	#4
Joe W. Namath Darrell Bevell for HC in 2014. All Pro Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Boynton Beach, FL Posts: 7,818	Rivers has nothing at receiver. Gates is washed up. Jackson cant beat anybody and just goes up for jump balls down the field. They have never had a #2 receiver. Its tough when you do not have speed at the receiving positions and nobody can get open. Last edited by Joe W. Namath; 07-06-2012 at 01:34 PM.

07-06-2012, 01:27 PM	#2
Apache 51 Let's Kill them all......... Hall Of Fame Join Date: May 2009 Location: In Morris Co.,N.J.,at the right end of a Browning 12 gauge Posts: 12,613	He peaked awhile ago, it's not about that it's about having the right guys around you when and if you do.

07-06-2012, 01:28 PM	#3
Bonhomme Richard Board Moderator Jets Insider VIP Charter JI Member Join Date: May 1999 Posts: 4,085	Most overrated QB in the NFL.

07-06-2012, 01:33 PM	#5
DDNYjets Bye week buh bye Rex Hall Of Fame Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: New York Posts: 12,235	Yes. He peaked in his 3rd year (1st as starter) and has been great ever since. His "down year" is 63%, 4600, and 27.

07-06-2012, 01:47 PM	#13
JB1089 Now is the time... All Pro Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 5,710	Not at all. I think someone that produced on the level that Rivers did is entitled to an off year. I think he'll return to form this year. I don't know if he'll get back to the 100+ passer rating level that he was at from '08-'10 (no Vincent Jackson), but he'll be around 95 or so. Rivers wasn't even the main problem with the Chargers last year, the defense was. If the Chargers playcalling inside the 5 yard line had been a little different, no one would have any concerns about Rivers, as he would have had 30+TDs. The Chargers had 9 rushing TDs from inside the 5 yard line, most of them from Tolbert. Rivers predictions: Yards- down TDs- up Attempts- down YPA- flat Comp %- up Rating- up

07-06-2012, 01:55 PM	#14
Raider9175 Raider football- JUST FLYNN BABY. All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,283	Philip rivers hasn't peaked. His oline just wasn't as good as it been in years past. He looked very good when Jared gaither took over LT and seem to stabilize the whole oline. Philip Rivers has lost alot of his weapons that he used very effective when his wr weren't open .(outlet receivers) Like L Tomlinson, Darren Sproles(see what he did for Saints offense) and antonio Gates hasn't been the same player for years now. The Chargers oline holds up and he capable of having a big season . The Chargers defense is more a problem than PHilip Rivers and the Chargers offense.

07-06-2012, 01:56 PM	#16
Ruby2 Patron and Grapefruit Juice Bitchess!!! Hall Of Fame Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Jerseystrong Posts: 17,012	Really getting sick of Evan Silva.

07-06-2012, 02:14 PM	#18
Paradis Is waiting for Ryan Mallet All Pro Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the 80s Posts: 7,107	i think the coaching staff peaked. And their poor talent evaluators and draft picks have caught up with SD too. Rivers isn't the problem.