FO Almanac 2012

[ozu]

Just released today. It's definitely one of the best offseason football reads, and at a good price if you're buying it in PDF form.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...-now-available

Originally Posted by FO

The Jets are courting disaster in the name of creating a gimmick offense that can net, in an ideal case, five yards per rush and a red zone advantage. It is easy to imagine the Jets winning a wild card berth and becoming a playoff headache by charting the narrow channel between Revis Island and Cape Tebowmania. It is easier to imagine an entire November episode of Pardon the Interruption dedicated to what Cromartie said after Tebow’s fumble, how Ryan reacted, and what Sanchez thought when he heard the comments from his new locker room in Arizona.

It is all very crazy, highly unpredictable, and gruesomely interesting, which makes it all quintessentially Jets.

[Rexipus Rex]

Based on the box provided, it seems like FO gave the Jets a favorable outlook, certainly better than Evan Silva's 27th best team power ranking he gave the Jets last week

I'll certainly take a 79% chance of not having a losing record this year and run with it.

I think the 9.2 expected wins is fair. I still honestly have no idea what to expect with the Jets season outlook. It seems like they could be 6-10 just as easily as they could be 10-6. If someone put a gun to my head, however, I'd say 9-7. Hopefully that is good enough to get into the playoffs, and if so, the team is riding hot going into it. Just gotta weather that difficult schedule storm early in the season. It starts with taking the Bills to town in Week 1.

[Austin]

Nice outlook, very much in line with how most objective analysts view the Jets.

[Kotch]

I won't post the entire write up, since FOA is only $12 and well worth it for purchase.

But here's a summary:

Strengths:
1. Best three-deep CB corps in NFL (Revis, Cromartie, Kyle Wilson is great fit at slot)

2. Solid foundation of up-the-middle defensive talent (Pouha, Harris and role players). Bolstered pass rush with Bryan Thomas back, Coples, and 46 defense.

3. "the Jets have four-fifths of a Super Bowl-caliber offensive line" Brick, Mangold, Brandon Moore have been together for 7 seasons, Slauson joined in 2010. "Whether Hunter is a misunderstood hero or a blown piston in need of replacing, however, the Jets still have the capacity to be great on the offensive line"

4. The AFC has only one offensive superpower, the Patriots...Rex Ryan and Tanny recognized that running and defense teams can excel in the AFC. Secondary and O-line give them potential to be an awesome running and defense team.

On Sanchez:
-Has not overcome his shortcomings
-Awful against the heavy rush (30.8% completion for 3.1 ypa against heavy rush last year)
-7 of 28 on passes with air length of over 25 yards, and 12 of those came in 4th quarter with Jets trailing which means Shotty has little faith in Sanchez's deep accuracy until things got desperate
-Sanchez is not a high volume pocket passer, nor is he a ball-protecting sack-avoiding game manager that defensive-oriented teams look for
-He is a stopgap, and Jets were foolish to sign him to an extension

FOA believes that all of the Jets' talk about Wildcat package is just coded language, and Tebow will become the starter once Sanchez struggles. They believe that letting Tebow play makes more sense than shuttling Sanchez in and out and putting Tebow in on obvious run/scramble plays.

Other points:
-O-line lacks depth beyond starters. Colin Baxter gone leaves no clear backup C.
-FOA loves David Harris ("one of the league's best all around ILBs"), Pouha and Bart Scott
-Revis is awesome. Cro was more reliable last year than in past. Kyle Wilson could start for most teams and is invaluable as a nickel defender
-Opposing kickers were an absurd 29 for 30 vs. the Jets last season, with only miss being a Janikowski 56 yarder. They will not be as lucky again this year...regression to the mean.
-Dave DeGugliemo is an idiot

The bottom line:

"It is easy to imagine the Jets winning a wild card berth and becoming a playoff headache by charting the narrow channel between Revis Island and Cape Tebowmania. It is easier to imagine an entire November episode of Pardon the Interruption dedicated to what Cromartie said after Tebow’s fumble, how Ryan reacted, and what Sanchez thought when he heard the comments from his new locker room in Arizona."

[heymangold]

so by the quote at the end, i'm assuming FO is predicting Sanchez traded to Arizona to solve their QB woes? what do we get?! haha

[FF2®]

Can someone tell me what the "variance" stat means?

[DDNYjets]

Edit. Double post.

[DDNYjets]

Not sure what they see in Kyle Wilson. "Invaluable", WTF are they talking about?

Everything else is good. Interesting stuff.

[FF2®]

^^^^^^^^

hey pick a post and go with it

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by FF2®

^^^^^^^^

hey pick a post and go with it

LOL.

Decisions. Decisions.

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by FF2®

^^^^^^^^

hey pick a post and go with it

LOL.

I can't make up my mind.

[JB1089]

Originally Posted by FF2®

Can someone tell me what the "variance" stat means?

It measures how consistent a team's level of performance is, 1 being the most consistent, 32 being the least.

The Jets have been one of the least consistent teams in the league since Rex was hired, but the average level of performance is still in line with other good teams.

Good offenses are more consistent, and thus more reliable, than good defenses. 3 of the 5 best defenses in the league, the Ravens, Jets, and Jags (1, 2, and 5) are in the bottom 5 in variance. In addition to the games that made them top 5 defenses, there were a handful of games where they got torched.

[AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite]

Originally Posted by Kotch

-O-line lacks depth beyond starters. Colin Baxter gone leaves no clear backup C.

This should say not re-signing Turner... Colin Baxter was gone by the end of October...

I'm not sure if this is from them or from you...Anyway, no depth on the O-line is accurate...

Dave DeGugliemo is an idiot

As a person or as a coach? He's clearly made some inane remarks... But this article should discuss his football acumen, so if that was discussed, to what do they credit his idiocy on?

[Kotch]

Originally Posted by AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite

As a person or as a coach? He's clearly made some inane remarks... But this article should discuss his football acumen, so if that was discussed, to what do they credit his idiocy on?

They repeatedly make fun of DeGugliemo for:
1. Undermining his head coach and GM by saying that Wayne Hunter is damn good and the starter unless "they shoot me dead in my office"
2. Ripping into Bill Callahan with the SB rings comment
3. Being a perfect fit into loudmouth, absurd Jets culture

[FF2®]

Originally Posted by JB1089

It measures how consistent a team's level of performance is, 1 being the most consistent, 32 being the least.

The Jets have been one of the least consistent teams in the league since Rex was hired, but the average level of performance is still in line with other good teams.

Good offenses are more consistent, and thus more reliable, than good defenses. 3 of the 5 best defenses in the league, the Ravens, Jets, and Jags (1, 2, and 5) are in the bottom 5 in variance. In addition to the games that made them top 5 defenses, there were a handful of games where they got torched.

Thanks.

How do people use this stat? What are we to make of it general?

What does it say about a team?

I mean if you are consistently sucky thats cant be good right?

[JB1089]

Originally Posted by FF2®

Thanks.

How do people use this stat? What are we to make of it general?

What does it say about a team?

I mean if you are consistently sucky thats cant be good right?

Variance isn't really a football stat, it's a measure that's used in actual statistics that is necessary to calculate standard deviations and other things.

All that it is going to tell you is how consistent something is. You have to use it in tandem with their DVOA rankings in order to get anything more than that out of it.

If two teams are 14th and 15th in DVOA, but 5th and 30th in variance, the team that's 30th in variance is probably the more talented, dangerous team. They're also more likely to come out and lay an egg (beat themselves), or so I would think.

DVOA measures a team's average level of performance. Variance gives you an idea of how close the team comes to this average on a weekly basis.

[sg3]

sorry FF2 variance stat is not something you can eat, therefore it probably isn't all that interesting to you

[10PennyToColes87]

Originally Posted by sg3

sorry FF2 variance stat is not something you can eat, therefore it probably isn't all that interesting to you

lol

[FF2®]

Originally Posted by sg3

sorry FF2 variance stat is not something you can eat, therefore it probably isn't all that interesting to you

FTR: I make a football post and it gets this response from a guy who says he has me on ignore.

I'm sorry but it ain't trolls who ruin the place.

[FF2®]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Variance isn't really a football stat, it's a measure that's used in actual statistics that is necessary to calculate standard deviations and other things.

All that it is going to tell you is how consistent something is. You have to use it in tandem with their DVOA rankings in order to get anything more than that out of it.

If two teams are 14th and 15th in DVOA, but 5th and 30th in variance, the team that's 30th in variance is probably the more talented, dangerous team. They're also more likely to come out and lay an egg (beat themselves), or so I would think.

DVOA measures a team's average level of performance. Variance gives you an idea of how close the team comes to this average on a weekly basis.

Gotcha, thanks!