FBO Playmaker Score - Predicts the potential of NFL WRs

brex · 08-07-2012, 11:05 AM

Football Outsider runs some sort of Sabermetrics to try an predict which rookie WR will become a playmaker in the NFL. Check out the video.

The WR with the most potential is Stephen Hill (far and away and its not even close). The most interesting thing though is that #3 is Jordan White.

DBarrett=all<3 · 08-07-2012, 11:16 AM

Thanks for the post. Interesting video. I agree that Jordan White is a sleeper. I'm probably just falling in love with his (crazy) numbers at Western Michigan, but you have to have some ability to put up numbers like he did.

brex · 08-07-2012, 11:18 AM

I think our scouts do a pretty good job overall

TheMikeIsHot · 08-07-2012, 11:28 AM

I think we all know Hill is a freak of nature, so these sort of formulas will always work out for him. I tend to believe he will be a special player and his bust potential is very low.

White is a surprise. I didn't expect to see him so high on a list like this. He has average athletic ability for a WR... but the production is undeniable. I wonder what they do with him this year. He could be the #3 or put on IR. It's way to early to tell.

Hill's potential gives me a boner.

brex · 08-07-2012, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMikeIsHot

I think we all know Hill is a freak of nature, so these sort of formulas will always work out for him. I tend to believe he will be a special player and his bust potential is very low.

White is a surprise. I didn't expect to see him so high on a list like this. He has average athletic ability for a WR... but the production is undeniable. I wonder what they do with him this year. He could be the #3 or put on IR. It's way to early to tell.

Hill's potential gives me a boner.

I would LOVE it if White can be another Cotchery for us.

Tackleem · 08-07-2012, 12:48 PM

White has the potential to be an rock-solid slot guy with average speed and superb route-running/hands. Still very concerned about a guy with two reconstructed knees who broke his foot first week of OTAs.

johnnysd · 08-07-2012, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tackleem

White has the potential to be an rock-solid slot guy with average speed and superb route-running/hands. Still very concerned about a guy with two reconstructed knees who broke his foot first week of OTAs.

White has average 40 yd time speed, but he would not be rated high on this scale if he was not really fast in the 10 yard dash which they used. This video backs up my contention that we need to go with our youth and not go down the veteran retread route.

Hill will be a Top 5 NFL receiver. Minimum

CraigFL · 08-07-2012, 01:08 PM

Stephen Hill 660, wow that's over the top. I've been trying to temper my enthusiasm with the pick, but that justifies everything I've been trying to push to the back of my mind.

PatsFanTX · 08-07-2012, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnysd

Hill will be a Top 5 NFL receiver. Minimum

So every team in the NFL, including the Jets, passed on a top 5 WR in the 1st round of the draft?

JetsfanfromtheBURGH · 08-07-2012, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

So every team in the NFL, including the Jets, passed on a top 5 WR in the 1st round of the draft?

Yes. Happens all the time

CraigFL · 08-07-2012, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

So every team in the NFL, including the Jets, passed on a top 5 WR in the 1st round of the draft?

This is exactly the opposite of your "the pats got lucky with brady in the 7th" arguement where you point out 32 teams passed on him in the first 6 rounds.

PatsFanTX · 08-07-2012, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CraigFL

This is exactly the opposite of your "the pats got lucky with brady in the 7th" arguement where you point out 32 teams passed on him in the first 6 rounds.

After 11 years in the NFL, Brady has proven he is a top 5 QB of all time.

Hill has yet to catch 1 pass in the NFL, but some Jets fans are already calling him a top 5 WR. Minimum.

Kinda reminds me of Pats fans a few years back when they were saying the same thing about Chad Jackson.

CraigFL · 08-07-2012, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

After 11 years in the NFL, Brady has proven he is a top 5 QB of all time.

Hill has yet to catch 1 pass in the NFL, but some Jets fans are already calling him a top 5 WR. Minimum.

Kinda reminds me of Pats fans a few years back when they were saying the same thing about Chad Jackson.

Agreed, however I wasn't addressing the particular players and their accomplishments. I was addressing the irony of you scoffing at the idea that 32 teams passed on a potentially great player in the first round .

Kotch · 08-07-2012, 01:51 PM

What is interesting to me is that the Jets have drafted of acquired 4 WRs who scored highly on the FBO Playmaker Score:

-Braylon Edwards (traded for)
-Santonio Holmes (traded for then re-signed)
-Stephen Hill (drafted)
-Jordan White (drafted)

This suggests the Jets are using a similar statistical method to evaluate WRs, which is good since the FBO guys are damn smart.

PatsFanTX · 08-07-2012, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kotch

What is interesting to me is that the Jets have drafted of acquired 4 WRs who scored highly on the FBO Playmaker Score:

-Braylon Edwards (traded for)
-Santonio Holmes (traded for then re-signed)
-Stephen Hill (drafted)
-Jordan White (drafted)

This suggests the Jets are using a similar statistical method to evaluate WRs, which is good since the FBO guys are damn smart.

How are they smart?

Last year Holmes was the 63rd ranked WR in the NFL, BE is hurt and pretty much washed up, and Hill and White have yet to catch a pass in the NFL.

NY's stepchild · 08-07-2012, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

After 11 years in the NFL, Brady has proven he is a top 5 QB of all time.

Hill has yet to catch 1 pass in the NFL, but some Jets fans are already calling him a top 5 WR. Minimum.

Kinda reminds me of Pats fans a few years back when they were saying the same thing about Chad Jackson.

Who said he was a top 5 WR?

PatsFanTX · 08-07-2012, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NY's stepchild

Who said he was a top 5 WR?

Read the 7th post in this thread.

NY's stepchild · 08-07-2012, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

Read the 7th post in this thread.

Well that's not Jet fans. Pick out JohnnyAppleSD and speak to him directly.

JetsfanfromtheBURGH · 08-07-2012, 02:21 PM

Apparently based on this assumption he has top receiver talent. That's all. It's merely a projection based on his measurables. what they actually do is a different matter.

eaglenj · 08-07-2012, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

How are they smart?

Last year Holmes was the 63rd ranked WR in the NFL, BE is hurt and pretty much washed up, and Hill and White have yet to catch a pass in the NFL.

BE was good enough to avg 25 yards a catch for a TD when we stomped the Pats in the playoffs

08-07-2012, 11:05 AM	#1
brex is still in mourning. Practice Squad Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 254	FBO Playmaker Score - Predicts the potential of NFL WRs Football Outsider runs some sort of Sabermetrics to try an predict which rookie WR will become a playmaker in the NFL. Check out the video. The WR with the most potential is Stephen Hill (far and away and its not even close). The most interesting thing though is that #3 is Jordan White.

08-07-2012, 11:16 AM	#2
DBarrett=all<3 Practice Squad Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY Posts: 470	Thanks for the post. Interesting video. I agree that Jordan White is a sleeper. I'm probably just falling in love with his (crazy) numbers at Western Michigan, but you have to have some ability to put up numbers like he did.

08-07-2012, 11:18 AM	#3
brex is still in mourning. Practice Squad Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 254	I think our scouts do a pretty good job overall

08-07-2012, 11:28 AM	#4
TheMikeIsHot All Pro Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 7,043	I think we all know Hill is a freak of nature, so these sort of formulas will always work out for him. I tend to believe he will be a special player and his bust potential is very low. White is a surprise. I didn't expect to see him so high on a list like this. He has average athletic ability for a WR... but the production is undeniable. I wonder what they do with him this year. He could be the #3 or put on IR. It's way to early to tell. Hill's potential gives me a boner.

08-07-2012, 12:48 PM	#6
Tackleem The phonetic spelling of how Phil Simms says 'tackle him" Practice Squad Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 306	White has the potential to be an rock-solid slot guy with average speed and superb route-running/hands. Still very concerned about a guy with two reconstructed knees who broke his foot first week of OTAs.

08-07-2012, 01:08 PM	#8
CraigFL still a rookie after 4 years. should be SanchezFL Rookie Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Cape Coral, FL Posts: 987	Stephen Hill 660, wow that's over the top. I've been trying to temper my enthusiasm with the pick, but that justifies everything I've been trying to push to the back of my mind.

08-07-2012, 01:51 PM	#14
Kotch Veteran Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,895	What is interesting to me is that the Jets have drafted of acquired 4 WRs who scored highly on the FBO Playmaker Score: -Braylon Edwards (traded for) -Santonio Holmes (traded for then re-signed) -Stephen Hill (drafted) -Jordan White (drafted) This suggests the Jets are using a similar statistical method to evaluate WRs, which is good since the FBO guys are damn smart.

08-07-2012, 02:21 PM	#19
JetsfanfromtheBURGH Pirates win 88 games this year. Mark it! Veteran Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 2,128	Apparently based on this assumption he has top receiver talent. That's all. It's merely a projection based on his measurables. what they actually do is a different matter.