Article: Jets Over/Under (8.5)

Kotch · 08-10-2012, 01:07 PM

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...ast-overunders

NEW YORK JETS (8.5)

Tom: I feel like just completely omitting the Jets from the column would have been a merciful act. I'm tired of hearing about this team already, and it's August 6 as I write this. Their best pass-rusher was Aaron Maybin, and I'm having a hard time believing he's now a very useful player. Their right tackle is still Wayne Hunter. I like Santonio Holmes as a receiver on the field in the abstract, but there's a whole other package that goes with that skillset that's much less attractive. They have a quarterback controversy because neither one is particularly proficient at throwing the football. Shonn Greene's absence helped cost them the AFC Championship Game against the Colts, but he's been mediocre at best most of the time since then despite an offensive line that, Hunter excepted, is pretty good. Eric Smith is still on the team, and Jim Leonhard is not.

Mike: The Jets are a maddeningly frustrating team.

Tom: And, yes, they signed Yeremiah Bell. He's still Yeremiah Bell. We just dealt with what I found a very frustrating subject. This column is reminding me why I don't pay as close attention the AFC East as I do to most other divisions.

Mike: More than perhaps any other team in the league, they have strong foundations. The offensive line is definitely above average. The defensive secondary is superb and the front seven, which not amazing, is devastating against runners. This seems like an amazing team, until you get to the skill positions and do a double-take.

Tom: Don't disrespect Dustin Keller, man! Keller had a worse DVOA but wasn't nearly as big a distraction. As Keller's player comment notes, he shouldn't be thrown the ball 115 times (more than Holmes!). That's not his fault.

Mike: Keller was worse than Holmes! Actually, this is insane. But their receivers and running backs are awful, but they have a very good line, 8th by ALY last year. Mark Sanchez is awful. Tim Tebow is awful-er, but he can at least run. They should really just go with Tebow from the start and shove the ball down everyone's throats. Use the passing game as a way to loosen up the defense for the running game. Now, this won't win them a Super Bowl, because most teams that aren't the Patriots can completely shut down a one-dimensional team with little difficulty.

Tom: At this point I have to remind everyone the Jets fully guaranteed Sanchez's salary this year and next year.

Mike: Oh good lord, they did, didn't they.

Tom: As Sanchez was a high first-round pick under the old CBA, that's over $20 million combined. I will also note Chris Brown of Smart Football and Grantland has noted Tebow is actually a surprisingly mediocre decision-maker on option plays, despite running a boatload of them over the years.

Mike: I have occasionally considered that the importance of quarterbacks in the NFL is greatly overstated. I really should slap myself next time I have that thought, or at least hire a tenor to remind me of my foolishness.
Tom: The Jets maybe should put him at quarterback, and just run run run, but that dooms them short of the ultimate prize barring a heaping helping of horseshoes.

Mike: I have never seen a team so talented and so complete but so utterly incompetent at positions where they could almost certainly fish out replacement-level talent. While, due to institutional incompetence, they are in no position to do so.

Tom: This isn't new. As the saying goes, you are what you repeatedly do. This is the New York Jets of the Rex Ryan era.

Mike: No, but it has finally come to a head, here. This is probably simultaneously the best and worst version of the New York Jets we have seen to date.

Tom: The Jets versions don't seem all that different to me, though I suppose that's part of who they are as well. I feel like this may be the version of the Jets with the best chance at a complete implosion.

Mike: I agree, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd bet, instead, on a very good defense propping up an offense that manages to come up for air just enough to make them dangerous. With this schedule, I think the Over is easy, but I don't like their chances against anyone with any real championship designs.
Tom: I actually concur with you, though. This is a largely similar team to last year's 8-8 team. They play a relatively easy schedule. They should be slightly better. At 8.5 wins, that's Over. And tune in next week as we tackle another cardinal direction.

Mike: Likely a less insane one.

Tom: Fortunately, Charm and Strange aren't NFL divisions. Yet.

Mike: Unfortunately, the NFL's voracious apetite for expansion will probably lead to the Shinobuden division sometime soon. We can only sit and wait in horror.

Tom: The horror, the horror.

Posted by: Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower on 08 Aug 2012

bitonti · 08-10-2012, 01:20 PM

the schedule really is much easier than last year

last year: they had at Oak, at Bal, and at NE that was brutal 3 game stretch. they played New England and then had at Denver on 4 days rest. At Philly (which the franchise is 0-forever) and the eventual SB champ Giants on xmas eve.

this year:

at Pitt is tough week 2 but they get SF and AZ at 1pm at home... their longest road trip is at seattle. Their other non conf are AZ, STL far easier than NFC East.

much much easier schedule

Peebag · 08-10-2012, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti

the schedule really is much easier than last year

last year: they had at Oak, at Bal, and at NE that was brutal 3 game stretch. they played New England and then had at Denver on 4 days rest. At Philly (which the franchise is 0-forever) and the eventual SB champ Giants on xmas eve.

this year:

at Pitt is tough week 2 but they get SF and AZ at 1pm at home... their longest road trip is at seattle. Their other non conf are AZ, STL far easier than NFC East.

much much easier schedule

I still see 8-8 in our future....

Joe W. Namath · 08-10-2012, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Mark Sanchez is awful. Tim Tebow is awful-er, but he can at least run. They should really just go with Tebow from the start and shove the ball down everyone's throats. Use the passing game as a way to loosen up the defense for the running game.

This.

suprjet · 08-10-2012, 01:38 PM

Man I cant wait for the Jets to rip apart a few teams and make these talking heads STFU!

However, they do point out we have major question marks at RT, WR, and RB. This is on Tanny -- he cant continue to let Rex have too much influence on personnel decisions that value D over O. I liked this year's draft with Hill but was maddened by last year's pick of Wilkerson in Rd 1. We should be focusing on need areas instead of depth areas, such as OL instead of DL and surrounding Sanchez with talent and protection so he can succeed.

Everything is riding on Hunter at RT and the young pups stepping up big time this season (McKnight, Powell, Gannaway, Hill, Kerley, Schilens, White, Cumberland, & Baker).

BleedGreen314 · 08-10-2012, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath

This.

That doesn't make any sense. They already did this with Sanchez, Edwards and Thomas Jones in 2010.

Austin · 08-10-2012, 01:40 PM

While there's no question we're relativley weak at the skill positions, I really think a lot of people underrate us there. People keep claiming this is one of the worst WR corps in the league -- I just don't see it. I really think Stephen Hill is going to surprise people.

CraigFL · 08-10-2012, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Austin

While there's no question we're relativley weak at the skill positions, I really think a lot of people underrate us there. People keep claiming this is one of the worst WR corps in the league -- I just don't see it. I really think Stephen Hill is going to surprise people.

I think alot of times these people confuse weak with inexperienced. It's like they think everybody stinks until they've proven otherwise. It's just as bad as saying they're HOFers until proven otherwise, just ridiculous. Instead of weak how about inexperienced with a couple good prospects?

NPTJET53 · 08-10-2012, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suprjet

Man I cant wait for the Jets to rip apart a few teams and make these talking heads STFU!

However, they do point out we have major question marks at RT, WR, and RB. This is on Tanny -- he cant continue to let Rex have too much influence on personnel decisions that value D over O. I liked this year's draft with Hill but was maddened by last year's pick of Wilkerson in Rd 1. We should be focusing on need areas instead of depth areas, such as OL instead of DL and surrounding Sanchez with talent and protection so he can succeed.

Everything is riding on Hunter at RT and the young pups stepping up big time this season (McKnight, Powell, Gannaway, Hill, Kerley, Schilens, White, Cumberland, & Baker).

I think the Jets drafted D the last 2 years because our D line has been weak for a long time. They are weak pass rushers, and in a league where QBs can throw for 5000 yards, we need players who can rush the qb. I think the WR and RT depth is a calculated risk, and they are hoping they can get by for a year or 2 until they can get good value on a draft pick.

The Jets as a whole have made a few switches to their organization. around 2006 +- , the jets were heavy on trading for big FA names, which started to change the culture of the Jets. I think the Antoine Windfield fiasco forced the jets to overpay for some Free Agents. Pace is the only one that really burns me.. I thought he was going to be a pass rushing star.

a few years back we made a huge splash picking up Braylon, Santonio, and Cromarti, all high risk-reward trades.

Now within the last 2 years, we have switched focus to the draft (and tebow). I think the org can finally stop overpaying FA and start building a perennial post season team. They just need good value on this years draft and next years. Then there should be enough talent that we're not complaining about the lack of depth.

Keep in mind, sanchez is young and locked up for a few years. Whether you support him or not, I don't think he's going anywhere.

08-10-2012, 01:07 PM	#1
Kotch Veteran Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,897	Article: Jets Over/Under (8.5) http://www.footballoutsiders.com/scr...ast-overunders NEW YORK JETS (8.5) Tom: I feel like just completely omitting the Jets from the column would have been a merciful act. I'm tired of hearing about this team already, and it's August 6 as I write this. Their best pass-rusher was Aaron Maybin, and I'm having a hard time believing he's now a very useful player. Their right tackle is still Wayne Hunter. I like Santonio Holmes as a receiver on the field in the abstract, but there's a whole other package that goes with that skillset that's much less attractive. They have a quarterback controversy because neither one is particularly proficient at throwing the football. Shonn Greene's absence helped cost them the AFC Championship Game against the Colts, but he's been mediocre at best most of the time since then despite an offensive line that, Hunter excepted, is pretty good. Eric Smith is still on the team, and Jim Leonhard is not. Mike: The Jets are a maddeningly frustrating team. Tom: And, yes, they signed Yeremiah Bell. He's still Yeremiah Bell. We just dealt with what I found a very frustrating subject. This column is reminding me why I don't pay as close attention the AFC East as I do to most other divisions. Mike: More than perhaps any other team in the league, they have strong foundations. The offensive line is definitely above average. The defensive secondary is superb and the front seven, which not amazing, is devastating against runners. This seems like an amazing team, until you get to the skill positions and do a double-take. Tom: Don't disrespect Dustin Keller, man! Keller had a worse DVOA but wasn't nearly as big a distraction. As Keller's player comment notes, he shouldn't be thrown the ball 115 times (more than Holmes!). That's not his fault. Mike: Keller was worse than Holmes! Actually, this is insane. But their receivers and running backs are awful, but they have a very good line, 8th by ALY last year. Mark Sanchez is awful. Tim Tebow is awful-er, but he can at least run. They should really just go with Tebow from the start and shove the ball down everyone's throats. Use the passing game as a way to loosen up the defense for the running game. Now, this won't win them a Super Bowl, because most teams that aren't the Patriots can completely shut down a one-dimensional team with little difficulty. Tom: At this point I have to remind everyone the Jets fully guaranteed Sanchez's salary this year and next year. Mike: Oh good lord, they did, didn't they. Tom: As Sanchez was a high first-round pick under the old CBA, that's over $20 million combined. I will also note Chris Brown of Smart Football and Grantland has noted Tebow is actually a surprisingly mediocre decision-maker on option plays, despite running a boatload of them over the years. Mike: I have occasionally considered that the importance of quarterbacks in the NFL is greatly overstated. I really should slap myself next time I have that thought, or at least hire a tenor to remind me of my foolishness. Tom: The Jets maybe should put him at quarterback, and just run run run, but that dooms them short of the ultimate prize barring a heaping helping of horseshoes. Mike: I have never seen a team so talented and so complete but so utterly incompetent at positions where they could almost certainly fish out replacement-level talent. While, due to institutional incompetence, they are in no position to do so. Tom: This isn't new. As the saying goes, you are what you repeatedly do. This is the New York Jets of the Rex Ryan era. Mike: No, but it has finally come to a head, here. This is probably simultaneously the best and worst version of the New York Jets we have seen to date. Tom: The Jets versions don't seem all that different to me, though I suppose that's part of who they are as well. I feel like this may be the version of the Jets with the best chance at a complete implosion. Mike: I agree, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd bet, instead, on a very good defense propping up an offense that manages to come up for air just enough to make them dangerous. With this schedule, I think the Over is easy, but I don't like their chances against anyone with any real championship designs. Tom: I actually concur with you, though. This is a largely similar team to last year's 8-8 team. They play a relatively easy schedule. They should be slightly better. At 8.5 wins, that's Over. And tune in next week as we tackle another cardinal direction. Mike: Likely a less insane one. Tom: Fortunately, Charm and Strange aren't NFL divisions. Yet. Mike: Unfortunately, the NFL's voracious apetite for expansion will probably lead to the Shinobuden division sometime soon. We can only sit and wait in horror. Tom: The horror, the horror. Posted by: Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower on 08 Aug 2012

08-10-2012, 01:20 PM	#2
bitonti searching Hall Of Fame Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Philly Posts: 38,786	the schedule really is much easier than last year last year: they had at Oak, at Bal, and at NE that was brutal 3 game stretch. they played New England and then had at Denver on 4 days rest. At Philly (which the franchise is 0-forever) and the eventual SB champ Giants on xmas eve. this year: at Pitt is tough week 2 but they get SF and AZ at 1pm at home... their longest road trip is at seattle. Their other non conf are AZ, STL far easier than NFC East. much much easier schedule

08-10-2012, 01:38 PM	#5
suprjet Veteran Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 1,077	Man I cant wait for the Jets to rip apart a few teams and make these talking heads STFU! However, they do point out we have major question marks at RT, WR, and RB. This is on Tanny -- he cant continue to let Rex have too much influence on personnel decisions that value D over O. I liked this year's draft with Hill but was maddened by last year's pick of Wilkerson in Rd 1. We should be focusing on need areas instead of depth areas, such as OL instead of DL and surrounding Sanchez with talent and protection so he can succeed. Everything is riding on Hunter at RT and the young pups stepping up big time this season (McKnight, Powell, Gannaway, Hill, Kerley, Schilens, White, Cumberland, & Baker).

08-10-2012, 01:40 PM	#7
Austin WINNING All Pro Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Upper East Side Posts: 6,189	While there's no question we're relativley weak at the skill positions, I really think a lot of people underrate us there. People keep claiming this is one of the worst WR corps in the league -- I just don't see it. I really think Stephen Hill is going to surprise people.