Darrelle Revis: Not Enough Done to Support Mark Sanchez

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Pierre Garcon

2010: 67 catches, 784 yards (11.7 ypc), 6 TD
2011: 70 catches, 947 yards (13.5 ypc), 6 TD



Pierre Garcon is a really good receiver. This is something else that happens to good receivers that play with great QBs: The QB gets all the credit.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. It's not a disservice to him to say that he has played with a number of very good to great receivers, and for a time played with arguably the best running back in the league.

Look at Manning first 3 years. Steady progression through year 3, big regression in year 4. What happened? Edgerrin James got hurt and defenses were able to key on Manning, who only had 1 great receiver at the time, as Reggie Wayne was just a rookie (another reason not to expect much from Hill this year). And the Colts still had a good running game: Dominic Rhodes ran for 1100 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. But he wasn't the same receiver and didn't command the respect from defenses that Edge did. James was coming off of consecutive seasons of 1,500 and 1,700 yards (while also catching 62 passes for 586 yards and 63 passes for 594 yards out of the backfield).

In Manning's record breaking 2004 season, the Colts offense consisted of:

Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th pick (1996)
Tarik Glenn: 1st round, 19th pick (1997)
Peyton Manning: 1st round, 1st pick (1998)
Edgerrin James: 1st round, 4th pick (1999)
Reggie Wayne: 1st round, 30th pick (2001)
Dallas Clark: 1st round, 24th pick (2003)

Between 1996 and 2003, the Colts went offense in the 1st round 6 out of 8 times, and hit on every one of those offensive picks. They also got lucky with Jeff Saturday, who was a UDFA.

2003-2006 Manning was the greatest statistical regular season run a QB has ever had. Manning averaged a 105.9 passer rating over those 4 years. Other numbers: TD rate of 6.6%, INT rate of 1.9%, ypa of 8.2, ypc of 12.3, comp% of 66.7%.

James left via FA after 2005. Glenn retired after the 2006 Super Bowl Season. Marvin Harrison missed most of 2007 with injury and wasn't the same guy in 2008 (2006 was his last All Pro year). Manning from 2007-2010 averaged a passer rating of 96.0. Other numbers: TD rate of 5.3%, INT rate of 2.5%, ypa of 7.4, ypc of 11.1, Comp% of 66.9%. Which is still phenomenal, but I think you get the idea: decline of surrounding talent = decline in Manning's level of production.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tom Brady had a significant jump in production between 2003 and 2004.

The Patriots signed Pro Bowl running back Corey Dillon, who came in and ran for 1600 yards in 2004. Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry in 2003. Dillon averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2004.


Tom Brady had a significant drop in production between 2005 and 2006.

The Patriots elected to let Deion Branch and David Givens, their 2 top receivers, walk in free agency. They were replaced by Reche Caldwell and a 35 year old Troy Brown, who moved back into a starting role. They had drafted Chad Jackson, but everyone know that didn't work out (Why didn't Brady just "elevate" him?). Seattle thought they were signing "Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch," when they were really just signing "nice receiver Deion Branch." He was only a disappointment because they got caught up in his Super Bowl performance (doesn't that sound familiar?). Branch has eclipsed 60 receptions once in his career, he's never had a 1,000 yard season, and has never caught more than 5 TDs in a season. His career averages are 4 catches and 50 yards per game, and that's exactly what he averaged in Seattle.



Brady had a dramatic increase in production between 2006 and 2007 (passer rating increase of 30 points )

Patriots acquire Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. Koppen makes first Pro Bowl, Mankins makes first Pro Bowl, Matt Light 1st team All Pro (Brady had a sack rate of 3.5% in 2007, 2 full percentage points lower than his career average to this point).



**Let's be clear, I used examples from the careers of PEYTON MANNING and TOM BRADY.

The point is that no matter how good the quarterback is, their level of play is still tied to the quality of their teammates.

A QB may "elevate" (though I wouldn't call it that) others around them, but it is at the cost of their own production. Surrounding a QB with quality teammates will "elevate" the play of the QB in a similar manner.**




A last, anecdotal, example. Some people consider John Elway to be the greatest QB ever. There is no evidence to support this statement found in his career statistics, at least not until late in his career. Not coincidentally, Elway never had what anyone would consider to be a very good supporting cast until late in his career: when his numbers took off.


Think about it like this. The output of an offense is the product of an equation where the quarterback is a multiplier applied to the sum of the parts of the rest of the offense, with no quarterback having a value equal to or greater than 1 (The idea being that no quarterback can cause another player to produce more than their talent is capable of producing).

That part was a little out there, it's past 2AM, I've been typing for some time, and I'm more than a little tired. I better stop now.

This is a very nice post!!!!

[Maury77]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Pierre Garcon

2010: 67 catches, 784 yards (11.7 ypc), 6 TD
2011: 70 catches, 947 yards (13.5 ypc), 6 TD



Pierre Garcon is a really good receiver. This is something else that happens to good receivers that play with great QBs: The QB gets all the credit.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. It's not a disservice to him to say that he has played with a number of very good to great receivers, and for a time played with arguably the best running back in the league.

Look at Manning first 3 years. Steady progression through year 3, big regression in year 4. What happened? Edgerrin James got hurt and defenses were able to key on Manning, who only had 1 great receiver at the time, as Reggie Wayne was just a rookie (another reason not to expect much from Hill this year). And the Colts still had a good running game: Dominic Rhodes ran for 1100 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. But he wasn't the same receiver and didn't command the respect from defenses that Edge did. James was coming off of consecutive seasons of 1,500 and 1,700 yards (while also catching 62 passes for 586 yards and 63 passes for 594 yards out of the backfield).

In Manning's record breaking 2004 season, the Colts offense consisted of:

Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th pick (1996)
Tarik Glenn: 1st round, 19th pick (1997)
Peyton Manning: 1st round, 1st pick (1998)
Edgerrin James: 1st round, 4th pick (1999)
Reggie Wayne: 1st round, 30th pick (2001)
Dallas Clark: 1st round, 24th pick (2003)

Between 1996 and 2003, the Colts went offense in the 1st round 6 out of 8 times, and hit on every one of those offensive picks. They also got lucky with Jeff Saturday, who was a UDFA.

2003-2006 Manning was the greatest statistical regular season run a QB has ever had. Manning averaged a 105.9 passer rating over those 4 years. Other numbers: TD rate of 6.6%, INT rate of 1.9%, ypa of 8.2, ypc of 12.3, comp% of 66.7%.

James left via FA after 2005. Glenn retired after the 2006 Super Bowl Season. Marvin Harrison missed most of 2007 with injury and wasn't the same guy in 2008 (2006 was his last All Pro year). Manning from 2007-2010 averaged a passer rating of 96.0. Other numbers: TD rate of 5.3%, INT rate of 2.5%, ypa of 7.4, ypc of 11.1, Comp% of 66.9%. Which is still phenomenal, but I think you get the idea: decline of surrounding talent = decline in Manning's level of production.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tom Brady had a significant jump in production between 2003 and 2004.

The Patriots signed Pro Bowl running back Corey Dillon, who came in and ran for 1600 yards in 2004. Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry in 2003. Dillon averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2004.


Tom Brady had a significant drop in production between 2005 and 2006.

The Patriots elected to let Deion Branch and David Givens, their 2 top receivers, walk in free agency. They were replaced by Reche Caldwell and a 35 year old Troy Brown, who moved back into a starting role. They had drafted Chad Jackson, but everyone know that didn't work out (Why didn't Brady just "elevate" him?). Seattle thought they were signing "Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch," when they were really just signing "nice receiver Deion Branch." He was only a disappointment because they got caught up in his Super Bowl performance (doesn't that sound familiar?). Branch has eclipsed 60 receptions once in his career, he's never had a 1,000 yard season, and has never caught more than 5 TDs in a season. His career averages are 4 catches and 50 yards per game, and that's exactly what he averaged in Seattle.



Brady had a dramatic increase in production between 2006 and 2007 (passer rating increase of 30 points )

Patriots acquire Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. Koppen makes first Pro Bowl, Mankins makes first Pro Bowl, Matt Light 1st team All Pro (Brady had a sack rate of 3.5% in 2007, 2 full percentage points lower than his career average to this point).



**Let's be clear, I used examples from the careers of PEYTON MANNING and TOM BRADY.

The point is that no matter how good the quarterback is, their level of play is still tied to the quality of their teammates.

A QB may "elevate" (though I wouldn't call it that) others around them, but it is at the cost of their own production. Surrounding a QB with quality teammates will "elevate" the play of the QB in a similar manner.**




A last, anecdotal, example. Some people consider John Elway to be the greatest QB ever. There is no evidence to support this statement found in his career statistics, at least not until late in his career. Not coincidentally, Elway never had what anyone would consider to be a very good supporting cast until late in his career: when his numbers took off.


Think about it like this. The output of an offense is the product of an equation where the quarterback is a multiplier applied to the sum of the parts of the rest of the offense, with no quarterback having a value equal to or greater than 1 (The idea being that no quarterback can cause another player to produce more than their talent is capable of producing).

That part was a little out there, it's past 2AM, I've been typing for some time, and I'm more than a little tired. I better stop now.

GD, did you own with this post, nice job.

[Maury77]

Assuming Sanchez does good enough to move forward with him into the future, I would like to see the team focus on improving the offense over the next 2-3 years, particularly in the draft. On defense, we have

DL

Ellis
Wilkerson
Coples

Three young guys all with very good potential who may be ready to start by next year

ILB

Harris & Davis - both young, Harris is a pro bow caliber player and Davis has potential.

DB

Revis, Cro, Wilson, Allen, Bush and hopefully Landry comes back.

That is a lot of young talent that is either in its prime or developing. In the era of the salary cap, the Jets do not need De Marcus Ware and James Harrison at OLB to be a dominant defense. The pieces are already there.

The offense needs to start getting some love.

[ColonelForbin]

At times from the right angle, this mess begins to resemble an unreality show

[JStokes]

Originally Posted by LockeJET

There is enough talent around him for him to play better then he has.

You realize you said THAT after you said this:

Originally Posted by LockeJET

Each year the offensive talent has got worse and worse. This years talent on offense is the worst in Sanchez's 4 years.

You sound silly, yet I'm the putz?

Got it.

_

[JStokes]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Pierre Garcon

2010: 67 catches, 784 yards (11.7 ypc), 6 TD
2011: 70 catches, 947 yards (13.5 ypc), 6 TD



Pierre Garcon is a really good receiver. This is something else that happens to good receivers that play with great QBs: The QB gets all the credit.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. It's not a disservice to him to say that he has played with a number of very good to great receivers, and for a time played with arguably the best running back in the league.

Look at Manning first 3 years. Steady progression through year 3, big regression in year 4. What happened? Edgerrin James got hurt and defenses were able to key on Manning, who only had 1 great receiver at the time, as Reggie Wayne was just a rookie (another reason not to expect much from Hill this year). And the Colts still had a good running game: Dominic Rhodes ran for 1100 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. But he wasn't the same receiver and didn't command the respect from defenses that Edge did. James was coming off of consecutive seasons of 1,500 and 1,700 yards (while also catching 62 passes for 586 yards and 63 passes for 594 yards out of the backfield).

In Manning's record breaking 2004 season, the Colts offense consisted of:

Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th pick (1996)
Tarik Glenn: 1st round, 19th pick (1997)
Peyton Manning: 1st round, 1st pick (1998)
Edgerrin James: 1st round, 4th pick (1999)
Reggie Wayne: 1st round, 30th pick (2001)
Dallas Clark: 1st round, 24th pick (2003)

Between 1996 and 2003, the Colts went offense in the 1st round 6 out of 8 times, and hit on every one of those offensive picks. They also got lucky with Jeff Saturday, who was a UDFA.

2003-2006 Manning was the greatest statistical regular season run a QB has ever had. Manning averaged a 105.9 passer rating over those 4 years. Other numbers: TD rate of 6.6%, INT rate of 1.9%, ypa of 8.2, ypc of 12.3, comp% of 66.7%.

James left via FA after 2005. Glenn retired after the 2006 Super Bowl Season. Marvin Harrison missed most of 2007 with injury and wasn't the same guy in 2008 (2006 was his last All Pro year). Manning from 2007-2010 averaged a passer rating of 96.0. Other numbers: TD rate of 5.3%, INT rate of 2.5%, ypa of 7.4, ypc of 11.1, Comp% of 66.9%. Which is still phenomenal, but I think you get the idea: decline of surrounding talent = decline in Manning's level of production.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tom Brady had a significant jump in production between 2003 and 2004.

The Patriots signed Pro Bowl running back Corey Dillon, who came in and ran for 1600 yards in 2004. Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry in 2003. Dillon averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2004.


Tom Brady had a significant drop in production between 2005 and 2006.

The Patriots elected to let Deion Branch and David Givens, their 2 top receivers, walk in free agency. They were replaced by Reche Caldwell and a 35 year old Troy Brown, who moved back into a starting role. They had drafted Chad Jackson, but everyone know that didn't work out (Why didn't Brady just "elevate" him?). Seattle thought they were signing "Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch," when they were really just signing "nice receiver Deion Branch." He was only a disappointment because they got caught up in his Super Bowl performance (doesn't that sound familiar?). Branch has eclipsed 60 receptions once in his career, he's never had a 1,000 yard season, and has never caught more than 5 TDs in a season. His career averages are 4 catches and 50 yards per game, and that's exactly what he averaged in Seattle.



Brady had a dramatic increase in production between 2006 and 2007 (passer rating increase of 30 points )

Patriots acquire Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. Koppen makes first Pro Bowl, Mankins makes first Pro Bowl, Matt Light 1st team All Pro (Brady had a sack rate of 3.5% in 2007, 2 full percentage points lower than his career average to this point).



**Let's be clear, I used examples from the careers of PEYTON MANNING and TOM BRADY.

The point is that no matter how good the quarterback is, their level of play is still tied to the quality of their teammates.

A QB may "elevate" (though I wouldn't call it that) others around them, but it is at the cost of their own production. Surrounding a QB with quality teammates will "elevate" the play of the QB in a similar manner.**




A last, anecdotal, example. Some people consider John Elway to be the greatest QB ever. There is no evidence to support this statement found in his career statistics, at least not until late in his career. Not coincidentally, Elway never had what anyone would consider to be a very good supporting cast until late in his career: when his numbers took off.


Think about it like this. The output of an offense is the product of an equation where the quarterback is a multiplier applied to the sum of the parts of the rest of the offense, with no quarterback having a value equal to or greater than 1 (The idea being that no quarterback can cause another player to produce more than their talent is capable of producing).

That part was a little out there, it's past 2AM, I've been typing for some time, and I'm more than a little tired. I better stop now.

_

[OCCH]

Originally Posted by Maury77

Assuming Sanchez does good enough to move forward with him into the future, I would like to see the team focus on improving the offense over the next 2-3 years, particularly in the draft. On defense, we have

DL

Ellis
Wilkerson
Coples

Three young guys all with very good potential who may be ready to start by next year

ILB

Harris & Davis - both young, Harris is a pro bow caliber player and Davis has potential.

DB

Revis, Cro, Wilson, Allen, Bush and hopefully Landry comes back.

That is a lot of young talent that is either in its prime or developing. In the era of the salary cap, the Jets do not need De Marcus Ware and James Harrison at OLB to be a dominant defense. The pieces are already there.

The offense needs to start getting some love.

My thoughts exactly.

I don't mind that we've focused on the defense recently, as that is where our best coaching is (and therefore should get the best ROI).

We just need Sanchez to SURVIVE this year -- not necessarily Pro-Bowl level, but give enough reason to believe he can be our future. Then beef up the line, get a stud RB/WR, pray Hill is the real deal and go from there. . .

[OCCH]

Originally Posted by JStokes

You realize you said THAT after you said this:



You sound silly, yet I'm the putz?

Got it.

_

To be fair, Sanchez has made his share of bonehead mistakes that have NOTHING to do with the talent around him.

Yes, we need to be realistic in our expectations of him, but we should be equally realistic in our criticism of him.

I actually think most fans are more in agreement than we realize -- it's just our "venting" usually ends up on one side of the fence or the other . . .

[DDNYjets]

Originally Posted by OCCH

To be fair, Sanchez has made his share of bonehead mistakes that have NOTHING to do with the talent around him.

Yes, we need to be realistic in our expectations of him, but we should be equally realistic in our criticism of him.

I actually think most fans are more in agreement than we realize -- it's just our "venting" usually ends up on one side of the fence or the other . . .

You're right. He has made a lot of rookie mistakes.

[JStokes]

Originally Posted by OCCH

To be fair, Sanchez has made his share of bonehead mistakes that have NOTHING to do with the talent around him.

Yes, we need to be realistic in our expectations of him, but we should be equally realistic in our criticism of him.

I actually think most fans are more in agreement than we realize -- it's just our "venting" usually ends up on one side of the fence or the other . . .

I never said he didn't--he's played some AWFUL games and made some HORRIBLE passes.

I just don't understand someone saying the talent around him sucks--therefore it's now time for him to be superman and make all the sh*t around him smell like roses.

It doesn't work that way.

Don't believe me.

Believe Revis.

_

[jetster]

Like someone else stated, I find it ironic that the guy that has been paid more than anyone on this squad after 2 holdouts & a suttle dig this preseason that he "might" hold out is one of the reasons this team has no chemistry anymore.

Hey DARELLE, STFU!

Man, I'm sick of all the blabbing that this team does.
Everyone just STFU & as Belichick says, "DO YOUR JOB!"

[LockeJET]

Originally Posted by JStokes

I never said he didn't--he's played some AWFUL games and made some HORRIBLE passes.

I just don't understand someone saying the talent around him sucks--therefore it's now time for him to be superman and make all the sh*t around him smell like roses.

It doesn't work that way.

Don't believe me.

Believe Revis.

_

Yes the talent has gone down. But there is still enough here for him to succeed and be better then he has.. It's not rocket science, he must get better. All you're doing is making a case so you have excuses if Mark doesn't improve. Fact is Mark has enough around him to be better then he was last year and we must see the improvement.

[Beerfish]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Pierre Garcon

2010: 67 catches, 784 yards (11.7 ypc), 6 TD
2011: 70 catches, 947 yards (13.5 ypc), 6 TD



Pierre Garcon is a really good receiver. This is something else that happens to good receivers that play with great QBs: The QB gets all the credit.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. It's not a disservice to him to say that he has played with a number of very good to great receivers, and for a time played with arguably the best running back in the league.

Look at Manning first 3 years. Steady progression through year 3, big regression in year 4. What happened? Edgerrin James got hurt and defenses were able to key on Manning, who only had 1 great receiver at the time, as Reggie Wayne was just a rookie (another reason not to expect much from Hill this year). And the Colts still had a good running game: Dominic Rhodes ran for 1100 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. But he wasn't the same receiver and didn't command the respect from defenses that Edge did. James was coming off of consecutive seasons of 1,500 and 1,700 yards (while also catching 62 passes for 586 yards and 63 passes for 594 yards out of the backfield).

In Manning's record breaking 2004 season, the Colts offense consisted of:

Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th pick (1996)
Tarik Glenn: 1st round, 19th pick (1997)
Peyton Manning: 1st round, 1st pick (1998)
Edgerrin James: 1st round, 4th pick (1999)
Reggie Wayne: 1st round, 30th pick (2001)
Dallas Clark: 1st round, 24th pick (2003)

Between 1996 and 2003, the Colts went offense in the 1st round 6 out of 8 times, and hit on every one of those offensive picks. They also got lucky with Jeff Saturday, who was a UDFA.

2003-2006 Manning was the greatest statistical regular season run a QB has ever had. Manning averaged a 105.9 passer rating over those 4 years. Other numbers: TD rate of 6.6%, INT rate of 1.9%, ypa of 8.2, ypc of 12.3, comp% of 66.7%.

James left via FA after 2005. Glenn retired after the 2006 Super Bowl Season. Marvin Harrison missed most of 2007 with injury and wasn't the same guy in 2008 (2006 was his last All Pro year). Manning from 2007-2010 averaged a passer rating of 96.0. Other numbers: TD rate of 5.3%, INT rate of 2.5%, ypa of 7.4, ypc of 11.1, Comp% of 66.9%. Which is still phenomenal, but I think you get the idea: decline of surrounding talent = decline in Manning's level of production.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tom Brady had a significant jump in production between 2003 and 2004.

The Patriots signed Pro Bowl running back Corey Dillon, who came in and ran for 1600 yards in 2004. Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry in 2003. Dillon averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2004.


Tom Brady had a significant drop in production between 2005 and 2006.

The Patriots elected to let Deion Branch and David Givens, their 2 top receivers, walk in free agency. They were replaced by Reche Caldwell and a 35 year old Troy Brown, who moved back into a starting role. They had drafted Chad Jackson, but everyone know that didn't work out (Why didn't Brady just "elevate" him?). Seattle thought they were signing "Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch," when they were really just signing "nice receiver Deion Branch." He was only a disappointment because they got caught up in his Super Bowl performance (doesn't that sound familiar?). Branch has eclipsed 60 receptions once in his career, he's never had a 1,000 yard season, and has never caught more than 5 TDs in a season. His career averages are 4 catches and 50 yards per game, and that's exactly what he averaged in Seattle.



Brady had a dramatic increase in production between 2006 and 2007 (passer rating increase of 30 points )

Patriots acquire Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. Koppen makes first Pro Bowl, Mankins makes first Pro Bowl, Matt Light 1st team All Pro (Brady had a sack rate of 3.5% in 2007, 2 full percentage points lower than his career average to this point).



**Let's be clear, I used examples from the careers of PEYTON MANNING and TOM BRADY.

The point is that no matter how good the quarterback is, their level of play is still tied to the quality of their teammates.

A QB may "elevate" (though I wouldn't call it that) others around them, but it is at the cost of their own production. Surrounding a QB with quality teammates will "elevate" the play of the QB in a similar manner.**




A last, anecdotal, example. Some people consider John Elway to be the greatest QB ever. There is no evidence to support this statement found in his career statistics, at least not until late in his career. Not coincidentally, Elway never had what anyone would consider to be a very good supporting cast until late in his career: when his numbers took off.


Think about it like this. The output of an offense is the product of an equation where the quarterback is a multiplier applied to the sum of the parts of the rest of the offense, with no quarterback having a value equal to or greater than 1 (The idea being that no quarterback can cause another player to produce more than their talent is capable of producing).

That part was a little out there, it's past 2AM, I've been typing for some time, and I'm more than a little tired. I better stop now.

Very nice well thought out post and some good points. The fact remains that when you look at Mark Sanchez vs a Brady or Manning or Brees etc.

If all goes well in a play, the QB has time the WR gets open the good QB's make the defense pay dearly with making an accurate throw and completing the play, not throwing behind a Wr and getting a pick 6.

If all does not go well in a play and the rush is on a guy like rothlisburger evades the rush, buys time and makes a player a guy like Cutler just stands in there and takes hit to the chops to make a play. Sanchez often doesn't.

Your post was a good one but if you go too over board with the line of thinking just about every failed QB ever has been given a free pass for their bad career. David Carr, Joey Harrington etc etc. In addition you simply cannot have a better situation the 1st two years that our QB had with a top 3 oline, running game and defense.

[LockeJET]

Originally Posted by OCCH

To be fair, Sanchez has made his share of bonehead mistakes that have NOTHING to do with the talent around him.

Yes, we need to be realistic in our expectations of him, but we should be equally realistic in our criticism of him.

I actually think most fans are more in agreement than we realize -- it's just our "venting" usually ends up on one side of the fence or the other . . .

Thank You!!!

[carlito1171]

Originally Posted by JB1089

Pierre Garcon

2010: 67 catches, 784 yards (11.7 ypc), 6 TD
2011: 70 catches, 947 yards (13.5 ypc), 6 TD



Pierre Garcon is a really good receiver. This is something else that happens to good receivers that play with great QBs: The QB gets all the credit.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. It's not a disservice to him to say that he has played with a number of very good to great receivers, and for a time played with arguably the best running back in the league.

Look at Manning first 3 years. Steady progression through year 3, big regression in year 4. What happened? Edgerrin James got hurt and defenses were able to key on Manning, who only had 1 great receiver at the time, as Reggie Wayne was just a rookie (another reason not to expect much from Hill this year). And the Colts still had a good running game: Dominic Rhodes ran for 1100 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. But he wasn't the same receiver and didn't command the respect from defenses that Edge did. James was coming off of consecutive seasons of 1,500 and 1,700 yards (while also catching 62 passes for 586 yards and 63 passes for 594 yards out of the backfield).

In Manning's record breaking 2004 season, the Colts offense consisted of:

Marvin Harrison: 1st round, 19th pick (1996)
Tarik Glenn: 1st round, 19th pick (1997)
Peyton Manning: 1st round, 1st pick (1998)
Edgerrin James: 1st round, 4th pick (1999)
Reggie Wayne: 1st round, 30th pick (2001)
Dallas Clark: 1st round, 24th pick (2003)

Between 1996 and 2003, the Colts went offense in the 1st round 6 out of 8 times, and hit on every one of those offensive picks. They also got lucky with Jeff Saturday, who was a UDFA.

2003-2006 Manning was the greatest statistical regular season run a QB has ever had. Manning averaged a 105.9 passer rating over those 4 years. Other numbers: TD rate of 6.6%, INT rate of 1.9%, ypa of 8.2, ypc of 12.3, comp% of 66.7%.

James left via FA after 2005. Glenn retired after the 2006 Super Bowl Season. Marvin Harrison missed most of 2007 with injury and wasn't the same guy in 2008 (2006 was his last All Pro year). Manning from 2007-2010 averaged a passer rating of 96.0. Other numbers: TD rate of 5.3%, INT rate of 2.5%, ypa of 7.4, ypc of 11.1, Comp% of 66.9%. Which is still phenomenal, but I think you get the idea: decline of surrounding talent = decline in Manning's level of production.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tom Brady had a significant jump in production between 2003 and 2004.

The Patriots signed Pro Bowl running back Corey Dillon, who came in and ran for 1600 yards in 2004. Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry in 2003. Dillon averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2004.


Tom Brady had a significant drop in production between 2005 and 2006.

The Patriots elected to let Deion Branch and David Givens, their 2 top receivers, walk in free agency. They were replaced by Reche Caldwell and a 35 year old Troy Brown, who moved back into a starting role. They had drafted Chad Jackson, but everyone know that didn't work out (Why didn't Brady just "elevate" him?). Seattle thought they were signing "Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch," when they were really just signing "nice receiver Deion Branch." He was only a disappointment because they got caught up in his Super Bowl performance (doesn't that sound familiar?). Branch has eclipsed 60 receptions once in his career, he's never had a 1,000 yard season, and has never caught more than 5 TDs in a season. His career averages are 4 catches and 50 yards per game, and that's exactly what he averaged in Seattle.



Brady had a dramatic increase in production between 2006 and 2007 (passer rating increase of 30 points )

Patriots acquire Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. Koppen makes first Pro Bowl, Mankins makes first Pro Bowl, Matt Light 1st team All Pro (Brady had a sack rate of 3.5% in 2007, 2 full percentage points lower than his career average to this point).



**Let's be clear, I used examples from the careers of PEYTON MANNING and TOM BRADY.

The point is that no matter how good the quarterback is, their level of play is still tied to the quality of their teammates.

A QB may "elevate" (though I wouldn't call it that) others around them, but it is at the cost of their own production. Surrounding a QB with quality teammates will "elevate" the play of the QB in a similar manner.**




A last, anecdotal, example. Some people consider John Elway to be the greatest QB ever. There is no evidence to support this statement found in his career statistics, at least not until late in his career. Not coincidentally, Elway never had what anyone would consider to be a very good supporting cast until late in his career: when his numbers took off.


Think about it like this. The output of an offense is the product of an equation where the quarterback is a multiplier applied to the sum of the parts of the rest of the offense, with no quarterback having a value equal to or greater than 1 (The idea being that no quarterback can cause another player to produce more than their talent is capable of producing).

That part was a little out there, it's past 2AM, I've been typing for some time, and I'm more than a little tired. I better stop now.

Expecting Mark to improve is one thing, but to expect him to make the garbage he's surrounded with into a juggernaut is absurd. I like how you proved the notion that "Good QB's make everyone around them better" is misleading...

[carlito1171]

Originally Posted by OCCH

To be fair, Sanchez has made his share of bonehead mistakes that have NOTHING to do with the talent around him.

Yes, we need to be realistic in our expectations of him, but we should be equally realistic in our criticism of him.

I actually think most fans are more in agreement than we realize -- it's just our "venting" usually ends up on one side of the fence or the other . . .

+1

[LockeJET]

It boils down to this. Are you guys saying that because we don't have an explosive offense that Sanchez's numbers shouldn't improve from last year.

Because all i'm saying is, we must see improvement and his numbers from last year must be better. Better comp %, a lot less turnovers and many more big plays down field.

I'n not expecting Hill and Curley to go over 1000 yards. Or Sanchez to toss 38 TD's.

We have enough talent for him to succeed and his numbers must be better then last year. Is anyone in dissagreement with that?

[ozu]

Sanchez was much better with INTs last year and basically league average at the rate he threw them. Football Outsiders tracks INTs that were dropped by the defender as well as ones that were the result of receiver tip and applied both to an adjusted rate.

	INT	Dropped INT	Tipped INT	Adj INT		Adj. INT Rate
2010	13	13		0		26		5.2%
2011	18	3		1		19		3.5%

http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-an...rceptions-2011

[DDNYjets]

Yikes. Opponents dropped 13 INTs in 2010. Perhaps we weren't as good as we thought we were. 11-5, pulling multiple games out of our asses and opponents dropped 13 INTs. Does FBO adjust the W-L records as well?

[ozu]

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

Yikes. Opponents dropped 13 INTs in 2010. Perhaps we weren't as good as we thought we were. 11-5, pulling multiple games out of our asses and opponents dropped 13 INTs. Does FBO adjust the W-L records as well?

Sanchez was very lucky in 2010. They do adjust records but pretty sure it's only Pythagorean Wins, which is point differential based. Here are our from the past 3 years.

2009 - 11.4
2010 - 9.8
2011 - 8.4