An unsophisticated analysis - Sanchez's steady progress 2009 - 2011

[shevys]

Originally Posted by Mainejet

It's a shame he can't have the weapons he had in 2010 this season. It really is. But the fact is, that's football. The names change and players move on. That's called reality in the NFL. So stop living in the past, it's time to look into the future.

In regards to Sanchez, you can make all of the excuses you choose but here are some other facts to chew on:

Sanchez has only ever really had chemistry with TWO receivers since becoming a NYJ - Edwards and Cotchery. Both are gone and are never coming back. He's been unable to make chemistry with any other WR's. Even if you don't believe it is his fault, you would have to admit he played a part in it.

He's in year 4 and he should have improved enough as a QB to compensate for some loss of talent. He hasn't. In fact, he's sunk like a stone.

And chemistry or no, Sanchez now misses wide open receivers due to his inaccurate throws. That cannot possibly fall on the stable of WR's. It's Sanchez's job to at least get the ball NEAR the intended WR and when he misses them sometimes by as much as 5 to 10 yards, there's obviously a problem with the QB.

He's also been unable to create chemistry with Santonio Holmes. Now say what you want about Holmes bad attitude and hostility toward everyone, and I'd agree with you, but this is a guy that should be EASY to make chemistry with. He possesses all of the skills and is a SB champion/MVP.

But how do you create chemistry with Holmes when you CONSISTENTLY miss the guy by a country mile? There's been times when Holmes was WIDE OPEN and Sanchez just inexplicably missed him.

This is to say nothing about him never being able to look off defenders. He's never been able to do that since day one. That's on Sanchez to change.

This is also to say nothing about his lack of ability to lift the team. As I've said many times before, a good QB lifts the play of everyone around him. Sanchez has never done that. That is the tell tale sign of players that do not have faith in their QB.

Sanchez has been given every benefit of the doubt and he's fallen flat on his face. It's time to move on.

I wonder if I say enough things in real life IN CAPITAL LETTERS it will make it all true?

Santonio Holmes is "EASY to make chemistry with." Umm, ok, genius. You say that why? Because he's been such a wonderful teammate? That must explain why the Steelers traded the Super Bowl MVP for next to nothing.

Sanchez "CONSISTENTLY" misses Holmes by a country mile? Do you even realize how silly you sound?

And since you blame Sanchez for not making his teammates better, what do you suggest? That he coach the OL on how to open running lanes for his running backs? Or perhaps he ought to have remedial training with Shonn Greene on how to juke a defender or catch a ball out of the backfield? Or should he just go place his WRs in the spot, pre-snap, to make things easier for them?

[Batmans A Scientist]

Originally Posted by Manchez

Add to the anomaly of Eli Manning: Alex Smith, John Elway, Steve Young, Drew Brees, Jim Kelley, Phil Simms, and many other QB's who didn't exactly light it up or carry their teams on their backs in their 1st 3-4 years in the league. There are 3 HOF QB's and a 1st ballot HOF QB just right there that would have never done jack s h i t if no one gave them more than 3-4 years to develop. They all also had more college experience and better offensive coaching than Sanchez as well.

Look he may not ever develop into a great QB, but giving up on him with the personnel and coaching he's had so far is not a smart move, especially when you consider that he's getting paid this year and next no matter what...

no offense, but comparing guys who played 25 years ago isn't a fair comparison.

ANot to mention:

Steve Young wasn't starting again until his 7th season
Drew Brees was an pro-bowler in his 4th season and was far more accurate than Sanchez ever was
Elway was good in his 2nd and 4th season,
Kelly was good even in his rookie season
Simms didn't turn a corner until his 7th year in the league.

Again, all of these guys have shown improvemet, Sanchez has not. Plus for eveery one of these guys, there are 5 that bombed out of the league. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to become a solid NFL QB, I'm saying it's far more likely that he will never become a good NFL QB.

I do agree with whoever wrote upthread about David Carr. The Texans never gave him an Offensive Line and he was pummeled as a rookie, they didn't give him the players he needed and he never developed. I will always believe that he could have been a very good QB under the right circumstances, but the Texans essentially broke him.

I don't see Sanchez as being too different, he had an OL, but never had great talent around him, and now there is a total lack of ability in the skill players. But, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that he'll ever be a consistent NFL QB. He'll have his good and even great games, but he's seemingly incapable of stringing 5 good games together.

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he completed more than 52% of his passes.

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he had 5 games with a QB rating above 60

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he threw 200 yards

[Jet Black]

Originally Posted by JetsNeedNewton

As stated already our 1st quarter of the season was the toughest. Not to mention all the players that have been here for about 15 minutes. We held the toughest team in football to their lowest point total yet and were within minutes of beating them.

Watch those stats rise as we lay waste to the colts and phins, and do pretty well against the patsies, maybe even beat them too.

I don't know what it sounded like on TV, but with all the fata$$ stay at home whiners complaining about the fan base I'll tell you there was NO halftime mass exodus, and we were deafening in our support of the D right through the end of the game.

Everyone around us walked out of the Texans game pretty damn optimistic about the rest of the season.

Yes, lottsa stuff needs fixing, but Rex and crew were master mechanics going from the 49ers to the Texans. No, I'm not saying SB, but given the cards dealt us we will get stronger for what hasn't killed us and next year may be the one. In fact it's almost guaranteed, since sitting at home watching Briteny Spears rub her nasties on my seat while I have to sit home watching the SB Jets will probably kill me, just the kind of joke teblow's savior loves to pull on me.

You know, I tend to agree with you. I really hope Keller is back this week; he is sorely missed and will help Sanchez a lot. I also like the chemistry developing with Schilens and speed displayed by Gates and Jason Hill. Over the next 4 games I think our receiver play will improve (including Stephen Hill when he returns). We can figure how to use Tebow and Mcknight/Powell together in the backfield with Sanchez, I think we can begin to muster some semblance of a running game.

Our young defensive players should continue to get better especially Coples. I also want to see more of Damon Harrison. That guy is a rock! I expect that Davis and perhaps Sapp will get more playing time as the season goes on helping to increase our overall speed on defense.

As bleak as it appears, it will be interesting to look back after the next 4 games and see where we are.

[Kotch]

Well your completion % chart only goes to 58%, so I think that says about as much as we need to say about Mark Sanchez.

[Jet Black]

Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist

no offense, but comparing guys who played 25 years ago isn't a fair comparison.

ANot to mention:

Steve Young wasn't starting again until his 7th season
Drew Brees was an pro-bowler in his 4th season and was far more accurate than Sanchez ever was
Elway was good in his 2nd and 4th season,
Kelly was good even in his rookie season
Simms didn't turn a corner until his 7th year in the league.

Again, all of these guys have shown improvemet, Sanchez has not. Plus for eveery one of these guys, there are 5 that bombed out of the league. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to become a solid NFL QB, I'm saying it's far more likely that he will never become a good NFL QB.

I do agree with whoever wrote upthread about David Carr. The Texans never gave him an Offensive Line and he was pummeled as a rookie, they didn't give him the players he needed and he never developed. I will always believe that he could have been a very good QB under the right circumstances, but the Texans essentially broke him.

I don't see Sanchez as being too different, he had an OL, but never had great talent around him, and now there is a total lack of ability in the skill players. But, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that he'll ever be a consistent NFL QB. He'll have his good and even great games, but he's seemingly incapable of stringing 5 good games together. Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he completed more than 52% of his passes.

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he had 5 games with a QB rating above 60

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he threw 200 yards

He is what, 5 games into his 4th season after coming out of college with only 13 starts at USC. He is still struggling with consistency and you maybe correct and he never reaches that next level. However I would caution against that belief, especially considering what the team has been like the last two years.

I personally think Sanchez will eventually put it all together; hopefully it will be with the Jets and hopefully within this season or next.

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by Manchez

Is Hill going to all of a sudden figure out how to catch perfectly thrown balls just because someone else is throwing them?

Exactly!!!!!

Good Grief

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by hatnlvr

The Jets FO have done some very odd things over the past few seasons. Most NFL teams draft a franchise QB, then immediately start drafting weapons to put around them to help them be successful. The Jets draft "their QB" then literally sit there and ignore the pieces around him and still want him to be succesful.

Sanchez has his issues, but to think he is solely responsible for our problems is just not being realistic about this teams offensive talent.

But Jets fans out here think there is no problem with the FO dramatically not improving the offensive roster (no getting a guy from prison doesn't count) but then they offer no reason why we MOVED up in the draft to get Sanchez if this was going to be the Jets plan from the Beginning!!!!

All of you Jet get rid of Sanchez folks name another NFL team that is currently employing the Jets strategy of actually having inferior offensive talent around their young QB every year!!!

Hint: The answer is no one!!!! And... The Jets had no plan!!!!!

Good Grief!!!

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by Manchez

That's basically the point I'm trying to make. Sanchez makes mistakes, but he is far from being the biggest problem on the Jets right now. The FO and coaching has not done Sanchez any favors during his development.

How about at the very least bringing in a proven successful QB coach to teach the kid proper mechanics and how to read a defense correctly. Spend $60 mil on a QB but can't spend the money to coach the GD kid. You stick him with Cavanaugh who has never been successful as a QB or a coach, Rex's master plan to improve the offense is to spend more time in practice running the ball.

Why is it in training camp other QB's are throwing 30-40 plays, but stats like 5-8 or 6-12 come out of our camp? How the F is anyone supposed to develop like this? The coaching staff here is killing whatever chance any QB on this team would succeed.

The sad part is that you can see this and the Jets FO and coaching staff can't that is what is sad....

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by PatsFanTX

No they are not.

Thank you!!!!

Some Jet fans are INSANE!!!

[Charlie Brown]

Originally Posted by shevys

I wonder if I say enough things in real life IN CAPITAL LETTERS it will make it all true?

Santonio Holmes is "EASY to make chemistry with." Umm, ok, genius. You say that why? Because he's been such a wonderful teammate? That must explain why the Steelers traded the Super Bowl MVP for next to nothing.

Sanchez "CONSISTENTLY" misses Holmes by a country mile? Do you even realize how silly you sound?

And since you blame Sanchez for not making his teammates better, what do you suggest? That he coach the OL on how to open running lanes for his running backs? Or perhaps he ought to have remedial training with Shonn Greene on how to juke a defender or catch a ball out of the backfield? Or should he just go place his WRs in the spot, pre-snap, to make things easier for them?

The short answer to all of your questions = YES!!!!!!

[Jason423]

Here were the game charts I had for Sanchez vs a wide variety of high draft pick QBs in terms of completion % and YPC.

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/s...percentage.php

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/sanchezYPC.php

In terms of his career trends they are all low. He is basically the most inaccurate QB of the group and he tracks just as much with Joey Harrington as Eli Manning and even Manning was close to done in year 4 before the playoffs sparked his career.

[Batmans A Scientist]

Originally Posted by Jet Black

He is what, 5 games into his 4th season after coming out of college with only 13 starts at USC. He is still struggling with consistency and you maybe correct and he never reaches that next level. However I would caution against that belief, especially considering what the team has been like the last two years.

I personally think Sanchez will eventually put it all together; hopefully it will be with the Jets and hopefully within this season or next.

Here's the thing. Another list... QBs who didn't hit the league average for Pass Completion % in their first 4 seasons.
http://pfref.com/tiny/LY17P

Joey Harrington
Eli Manning
Rick Mirer
Mike Pagel
Mark Sanchez
Jay Schroeder
Alex Smith
Vinny Testaverde


Here are the guys that didn't hit the league average in their first 3 seasons:
http://pfref.com/tiny/wMiUq

Drew Bledsoe
Kyle Boller
Quincy Carter
Kerry Collins
Joey Harrington
Eli Manning
Rick Mirer
Mike Pagel
Mark Sanchez
Jay Schroeder
Alex Smith
Vinny Testaverde
David Woodley
Derek Anderson

A little hope there...

However, considering Sanchez's current completion, and average 31 passes a game. He would have to complete 65% of his passes the rest of the season to reach the average NFL completion % (in 2011).

THere are 3 likely scenarios

1. He never turns a corner and ends up a career backup or out of the league
2. He turns a corner after leaving the Jets after next season
3. He becomes a serviceable QB for the Jets like Alex Smith


4. He becomes a top 10 QB...

I think #4 is the most unlikely scenario based on past history of NFL QBs that weren't accurate.

[Tinstar]

Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD% INT INT% Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating

474 291 3,451 61.4 7.3 25 5.3 6 1.3 64 28 195 95.9



Please show me where Our QB has ever even come close to these #s . Even when he took our team to 2 AFC Championship games.

[Beerfish]

As with most pro Mark analysis of his game, the actual analysis has NOTHING to do with him but rather everyone else on the team. This tells you that either he is a total jag that was carried his 1st few years by better players and his early success was due to his supporting cast or he was not bad his 1st few years but deserves all criticism for the welfare of the offense this year.

You can't have it both ways. These excuses for Sanchez actually work in reverse because they take away any notion that he was a big part of the two AFC title games accomplishments.

[OneTime]

Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist

no offense, but comparing guys who played 25 years ago isn't a fair comparison.

ANot to mention:

Steve Young wasn't starting again until his 7th season
Drew Brees was an pro-bowler in his 4th season and was far more accurate than Sanchez ever was
Elway was good in his 2nd and 4th season,
Kelly was good even in his rookie season
Simms didn't turn a corner until his 7th year in the league.

Again, all of these guys have shown improvemet, Sanchez has not. Plus for eveery one of these guys, there are 5 that bombed out of the league. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to become a solid NFL QB, I'm saying it's far more likely that he will never become a good NFL QB.

I do agree with whoever wrote upthread about David Carr. The Texans never gave him an Offensive Line and he was pummeled as a rookie, they didn't give him the players he needed and he never developed. I will always believe that he could have been a very good QB under the right circumstances, but the Texans essentially broke him.

I don't see Sanchez as being too different, he had an OL, but never had great talent around him, and now there is a total lack of ability in the skill players. But, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that he'll ever be a consistent NFL QB. He'll have his good and even great games, but he's seemingly incapable of stringing 5 good games together.

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he completed more than 52% of his passes.

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he had 5 games with a QB rating above 60

Sanchez has never gone 5 consecutive games where he threw 200 yards

Until this year's mess on offense Sanchez stats have steadily improved every year per the OPS original post

[SlickBri481]

Originally Posted by Jason423

Here were the game charts I had for Sanchez vs a wide variety of high draft pick QBs in terms of completion % and YPC.

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/s...percentage.php

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/sanchezYPC.php

In terms of his career trends they are all low. He is basically the most inaccurate QB of the group and he tracks just as much with Joey Harrington as Eli Manning and even Manning was close to done in year 4 before the playoffs sparked his career.

What's even worse about these analyses is they do not include his off-the-charts awful performance in his 5 games in 2012, which has essentially put him on equal footing with guys like Blaine Gabbert and Brandon Weeden in terms of 2012 performance. The regular season numbers all scream that Sanchez is a huge bust who should either be benched or cut soon, but those who want to cling to hope do have those 6 playoff games where he has performed well.

[SlickBri481]

I thought I'd compare Mark's passer rating, QBR, and DVOA from his first 4 seasons so far. Let's see his league-wide ranks:

2009:

Passer rating - 28th; QBR - 26th; DVOA - 35th

2010:

Passer rating - 27th; QBR - 18th; DVOA - 28th

2011:

Passer rating - 23rd; QBR - 30th; DVOA - 29th

2012:

Passer rating - 31st; QBR - 31st; DVOA - 29th

How could anyone think this guy is a good player? I mean seriously....

[Tinstar]

Originally Posted by Jason423

Here were the game charts I had for Sanchez vs a wide variety of high draft pick QBs in terms of completion % and YPC.

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/s...percentage.php

http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/sanchezYPC.php

In terms of his career trends they are all low. He is basically the most inaccurate QB of the group and he tracks just as much with Joey Harrington as Eli Manning and even Manning was close to done in year 4 before the playoffs sparked his career.

Somebody please tell me i am wrong. Did 1 of those graphs show that Joey Harrington had a better year than Sanchez ever had.

Please dear Lord, please someone tell me i am wrong.

[FMJets]

Originally Posted by ASG0531

Why even post that? It will be refuted immediately. Jets fans have seen their WRs drop everything all season, keeping Sanchez down. Everyone is failing around Sanchez. Always failing him.

Yes I will refute that. I saw with my own eyes Holmes drop at least 4 passes in the first two games.!!
I bet they dont count Cumberlands drop even though 90% of NFL caliber starting TE's will make that catch. Keller would of made that catch, and who knows we might have even won the game.

[Jason423]

Originally Posted by Tinstar

Somebody please tell me i am wrong. Did 1 of those graphs show that Joey Harrington had a better year than Sanchez ever had.

Please dear Lord, please someone tell me i am wrong.

Not exactly. He was more accurate passing the football over a long stretch but his YPC was off the charts low, meaning he was throwing nothing pass routes while Sanchez was taking more difficult routes. I think in looking at some of the overall picture (I have other charts I never published) Sanchez tracks worse than Carr and Leftwich. Hes pretty similar to Alex Smith and I think you can make a case that he fits with Harrington and Boller.

Eli is the one shining light. The thing is if you are waiting for Sanchez= Eli you really need to wait until about year 6. It wasnt before that that Eli made the real leap into being an above average QB, outside of the late game heroics that he would pull off, but the Giants had a better team and easier conference to play in so they could still be a success and not let the fans get as upset.