First State Polls out Since the Debate

chiefst2000 · 10-05-2012, 11:58 AM

Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Florida: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1

To Sum it up - Florida Romney +3
Ohio Tied
Virginia Romney +2

AlbanyJet · 10-06-2012, 07:40 AM

CBS-NY Times/Wall Street Journal-NBC polls base their surveys on a Democrat turnout expectation similar to 2008 which is why Obama polls well there.

WeAskAmerica is likely basing their surveys on a Republican turnout expectation similar to 2010 which is why Obama doesn't poll well there.

What Mitt Romney is trying to do in the debates is talk to the voters who turned out in 2010 so they'll come out and vote for him.

We'll see what happens on election day.

DDNYjets · 10-06-2012, 07:50 AM

The debate was one sided and the polls showed it. However, the Dems have the new jobs report and I expect things to level off in the next debates. So we shall see where the polls go.

I agree though. Romney is probably doing better than the some polls show b.c some polls use data from 2008 which was basically an anomaly in turnout.

AlbanyJet · 10-06-2012, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

The debate was one sided and the polls showed it. However, the Dems have the new jobs report and I expect things to level off in the next debates. So we shall see where the polls go.

I agree though. Romney is probably doing better than the some polls show b.c some polls use data from 2008 which was basically an anomaly in turnout.

The jobs report that came out yesterday is horrible news for Obama. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in September when we need at the very least 150,000.

I think you're referring to the unemployment report that came out yesterday where the UE rate went down to 7.8%. Turns out that 66% of that .3% lowering was a direct result of part time jobs. Not good!

chiefst2000 · 10-06-2012, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

The jobs report that came out yesterday is horrible news for Obama. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in September when we need at the very least 150,000.

I think you're referring to the unemployment report that came out yesterday where the UE rate went down to 7.8%. Turns out that 66% of that .3% lowering was a direct result of part time jobs. Not good!

The jobs report is not a sentiment mover. The fact that GDP growth and job growth have been decelerating for the past 6 quarters is the real damning figure. Romney rightfully pointed that out on multiple occasions in Wednesdays debate.

AlbanyJet · 10-07-2012, 10:06 AM

More On The UE Rate Drop To 7.8%:

66% (2/3) of the .3% drop in the UE rate is directly attributable to part-time jobs.

So subtracting part-time jobs the UE rate went down only .1% meaning that the real UE rate is still at 8.0%.

Is Barack Obama seriously going to campaign that he should be reelected on part time jobs?

chiefst2000 · 10-08-2012, 11:51 AM

Another interesting Poll number -

http://www.politico.com/news/stories...122_Page3.html

This was conducted mainly BEFORE the debate last week. The poll is exclusively in battleground states. While the top line numbers showed a tie (due to questionable methodology) as I've said here many times the real significant number is the poll of independents. According to this poll Romney leads by 16 points among independents in the battleground states. The other interesting factoid to come out of that poll is regarding voter intensity. Romney voters by more then 10 points say they are extremely likely to vote. Interestingly the lowest intensity numbers came from Blacks, Hispanics and voters ages 18-29. Since that poll was conducted last week and 85% of the calls were made before the debate I'd expect the numbers to solidify or improve for Romney once this weeks poll comes out.

shakin318 · 10-08-2012, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlbanyJet

Is Barack Obama seriously going to campaign that he should be reelected on part time jobs?

A good amount of the part time jobs are temporary campaign workers in the runup to the November election. So yeah, Obama IS a job creator after all

jetman67 · 10-08-2012, 04:12 PM

Its not entirely up to the president to create Jobs. I lost my old job 3 years ago, and have been strictly freelancing since. Its turned into a full time gig on its own, just by hustling, networking and building relationships.

We dont need to depend on the government for everything

parafly · 10-08-2012, 04:49 PM

It's been stated for a long time ... it's going to be very close folks. A few hundred thousand voters in a select few states will decide it.

PlumberKhan · 10-08-2012, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parafly

It's been stated for a long time ... it's going to be very close folks. A few hundred thousand voters in a select few states will decide it.

It's not close.

It's nice to say that it is (to drive up donations to the loser candidate)....but this race has has never been close. Magic fairy Jesus underwear gray side burned grease just for men guy never had a chance against community Muslim Newport smoking America hater Wright bad jumpshot TelePrompTer guy.

The GOP had a chance. Instead, they decided to nominate a piece of sh*t in a suit jacket.

Sent from my Double-Wide using Semaphore...

parafly · 10-08-2012, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlumberKhan

It's not close.

It's nice to say that it is (to drive up donations to the loser candidate)....but this race has has never been close. Magic fairy Jesus underwear gray side burned grease just for men guy never had a chance against community Muslim Newport smoking America hater Wright bad jumpshot TelePrompTer guy.

The GOP had a chance. Instead, they decided to nominate a piece of sh*t in a suit jacket.

Sent from my Double-Wide using Semaphore...

I have to disagree.

National elections are going to be very close by default for the foreseeable future unless there is a real move toward a third party.

Under the current R and D system, the only time a candidate will win a national election by a 6% "landslide" is if one party makes an unsalvageable mistake such as Palin VP.

In my opinion, Romney doesn't fall into this category.

PlumberKhan · 10-08-2012, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parafly

I have to disagree.

National elections are going to be very close by default for the foreseeable future unless there is a real move toward a third party.

Under the current R and D system, the only time a candidate will win a national election by a 6% "landslide" is if one party makes an unsalvageable mistake such as Palin VP.

In my opinion, Romney doesn't fall into this category.

Bingo.

The exact same sentiment I had in 2004.

Thank god for the Kerry presidency.

Sent from my Double-Wide using Semaphore...

sackdance · 10-08-2012, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlumberKhan

Instead, they decided to nominate a piece of sh*t in a suit jacket.

If only Romney had your brains and integrity.

sackdance · 10-09-2012, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlumberKhan

It's not close.

It's nice to say that it is (to drive up donations to the loser candidate)....but this race has has never been close. Magic fairy Jesus underwear gray side burned grease just for men guy never had a chance against community Muslim Newport smoking America hater Wright bad jumpshot TelePrompTer guy.

The link below is from Andrew Sullivan. Ever hear of him, PK? You should read it, get your head out of the sand.

Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away?
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....tion-away.html

The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

MnJetFan · 10-09-2012, 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DDNYjets

The debate was one sided and the polls showed it. However, the Dems have the new jobs report and I expect things to level off in the next debates. So we shall see where the polls go.

I agree though. Romney is probably doing better than the some polls show b.c some polls use data from 2008 which was basically an anomaly in turnout.

The jobs report was a joke, a few thousand jobs created and the unemployment figures went down 2/10 of a percent. I wonder what will happen in October.

chiefst2000 · 10-09-2012, 11:22 AM

More polls out today. Michigan now Obama +3, Pennsylvania now Obama +3.

Both polls had D+8 samples. Once Wisconsin is polled I believe the race there will be even closer.

The beauty of last weeks debate was that it was the first time most Americans have seen Romney speak. The Obama campaign did a nice job of defining him via their advertising as a mix between Gordon Gecko and Thurston Howell III. A rich out of touch corporate raider whose main reason in running for president was to help out his ultra-wealthy friends. The real Romney showed up at the debate however and the caricature was shattered.

Lets put some of the key points in to perspective. The Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on taxes. They used a report made by a former Obama staffer that extrapolated this 5 trillion dollar tax cut nonsense. Romney had said all along that he wants to enact tax reform by cutting rates 20% across the board then limiting deductions and loopholes to keep it revenue neutral. The report claimed that there weren't enough loopholes to do so and extrapolated that tax hikes on middle income earners would be necessary to close the gap. Romney had denied that all along and points to several other studies that say it is doable. Comically Obama and his operatives continue to cling to the debunked 5 trillion dollar figure. Their strategy this week is to call Romney a liar. The comedy is that the Democrats seem like they actually believed their original distortion and are now acting surprised when it was countered. Even the agency behind the original report Obama cited has backed off their statement and are now claiming they used assumptions not in the Romney plan because it was "not detailed enough".

The race is on right now. If Obama doesn't have a solid showing in the FP debate he is finished. If I were Romney I would hammer home the following points: Apology Tour, National Security Leaks, lack of strategy during Arab Spring regarding political fallout, Benghazi failures and deception by Obama in attempting to blame it on a you tube clip, Relationship with Israel. Also, it is important to stay away from any language that appears to be warmongering.

chiefst2000 · 10-09-2012, 12:38 PM

Two More Polls:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html

In a D+10 sample they have the Ohio Race virtually tied at Romney +1
Looking into the numbers the most interesting was independents going for Romney with a 20 point margin. Wow!

In Colorado the same outfit had Romney +4
In that one the sample was even numbers of D R and I. Romney's margin exclusively due to more support from Republicans then Obama gets from Democrats. Romney got 94% of Republicans there, Obama gets 87% of Democrats. Independents were an even split. Interesting.

YellowSubmarine · 10-09-2012, 02:09 PM

I heard on the radio this morning that Obama is 4 points behind Romney in the polls.

What Obama has to do is get the next debate focused on foreign policy and especially on Syria. We are at a critical point now, with war is just around the corner. The public has to hear Romney's response on Syria. I heard that he favors providing weapons to the rebels. That would bring us to the point of war. And Americans don't want that.

Jungle Shift Jet · 10-09-2012, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YellowSubmarine

I heard on the radio this morning that Obama is 4 points behind Romney in the polls.

What Obama has to do is get the next debate focused on foreign policy and especially on Syria. We are at a critical point now, with war is just around the corner. The public has to hear Romney's response on Syria. I heard that he favors providing weapons to the rebels. That would bring us to the point of war. And Americans don't want that.

I heard B. Hussein likes what Romney likes.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/01/us/syr...aid/index.html

Another good one, "dumbarine"

10-05-2012, 11:58 AM	#1
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,834	First State Polls out Since the Debate Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Florida: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3 Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1 Virginia: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3 Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1 Ohio: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1 To Sum it up - Florida Romney +3 Ohio Tied Virginia Romney +2

10-06-2012, 07:40 AM	#2
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	CBS-NY Times/Wall Street Journal-NBC polls base their surveys on a Democrat turnout expectation similar to 2008 which is why Obama polls well there. WeAskAmerica is likely basing their surveys on a Republican turnout expectation similar to 2010 which is why Obama doesn't poll well there. What Mitt Romney is trying to do in the debates is talk to the voters who turned out in 2010 so they'll come out and vote for him. We'll see what happens on election day.

10-06-2012, 07:50 AM	#3
DDNYjets Bye week buh bye Rex Hall Of Fame Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: New York Posts: 12,280	The debate was one sided and the polls showed it. However, the Dems have the new jobs report and I expect things to level off in the next debates. So we shall see where the polls go. I agree though. Romney is probably doing better than the some polls show b.c some polls use data from 2008 which was basically an anomaly in turnout.

10-07-2012, 10:06 AM	#6
AlbanyJet All League Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 2,623	More On The UE Rate Drop To 7.8%: 66% (2/3) of the .3% drop in the UE rate is directly attributable to part-time jobs. So subtracting part-time jobs the UE rate went down only .1% meaning that the real UE rate is still at 8.0%. Is Barack Obama seriously going to campaign that he should be reelected on part time jobs?

10-08-2012, 11:51 AM	#7
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,834	Another interesting Poll number - http://www.politico.com/news/stories...122_Page3.html This was conducted mainly BEFORE the debate last week. The poll is exclusively in battleground states. While the top line numbers showed a tie (due to questionable methodology) as I've said here many times the real significant number is the poll of independents. According to this poll Romney leads by 16 points among independents in the battleground states. The other interesting factoid to come out of that poll is regarding voter intensity. Romney voters by more then 10 points say they are extremely likely to vote. Interestingly the lowest intensity numbers came from Blacks, Hispanics and voters ages 18-29. Since that poll was conducted last week and 85% of the calls were made before the debate I'd expect the numbers to solidify or improve for Romney once this weeks poll comes out.

10-08-2012, 04:12 PM	#9
jetman67 Wants a Superbowl, Thats It!!! Hall Of Fame Charter JI Member Join Date: May 1999 Location: Somewhere Posts: 10,382	Its not entirely up to the president to create Jobs. I lost my old job 3 years ago, and have been strictly freelancing since. Its turned into a full time gig on its own, just by hustling, networking and building relationships. We dont need to depend on the government for everything

10-08-2012, 04:49 PM	#10
parafly so why side with anything? All Pro Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Colorado Posts: 6,291	It's been stated for a long time ... it's going to be very close folks. A few hundred thousand voters in a select few states will decide it.

10-09-2012, 11:22 AM	#17
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,834	More polls out today. Michigan now Obama +3, Pennsylvania now Obama +3. Both polls had D+8 samples. Once Wisconsin is polled I believe the race there will be even closer. The beauty of last weeks debate was that it was the first time most Americans have seen Romney speak. The Obama campaign did a nice job of defining him via their advertising as a mix between Gordon Gecko and Thurston Howell III. A rich out of touch corporate raider whose main reason in running for president was to help out his ultra-wealthy friends. The real Romney showed up at the debate however and the caricature was shattered. Lets put some of the key points in to perspective. The Obama campaign has been hammering Romney on taxes. They used a report made by a former Obama staffer that extrapolated this 5 trillion dollar tax cut nonsense. Romney had said all along that he wants to enact tax reform by cutting rates 20% across the board then limiting deductions and loopholes to keep it revenue neutral. The report claimed that there weren't enough loopholes to do so and extrapolated that tax hikes on middle income earners would be necessary to close the gap. Romney had denied that all along and points to several other studies that say it is doable. Comically Obama and his operatives continue to cling to the debunked 5 trillion dollar figure. Their strategy this week is to call Romney a liar. The comedy is that the Democrats seem like they actually believed their original distortion and are now acting surprised when it was countered. Even the agency behind the original report Obama cited has backed off their statement and are now claiming they used assumptions not in the Romney plan because it was "not detailed enough". The race is on right now. If Obama doesn't have a solid showing in the FP debate he is finished. If I were Romney I would hammer home the following points: Apology Tour, National Security Leaks, lack of strategy during Arab Spring regarding political fallout, Benghazi failures and deception by Obama in attempting to blame it on a you tube clip, Relationship with Israel. Also, it is important to stay away from any language that appears to be warmongering.

10-09-2012, 12:38 PM	#18
chiefst2000 Champion of Common Sense All Pro Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 5,834	Two More Polls: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html In a D+10 sample they have the Ohio Race virtually tied at Romney +1 Looking into the numbers the most interesting was independents going for Romney with a 20 point margin. Wow! In Colorado the same outfit had Romney +4 In that one the sample was even numbers of D R and I. Romney's margin exclusively due to more support from Republicans then Obama gets from Democrats. Romney got 94% of Republicans there, Obama gets 87% of Democrats. Independents were an even split. Interesting.

10-09-2012, 02:09 PM	#19
YellowSubmarine Banned Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 298	I heard on the radio this morning that Obama is 4 points behind Romney in the polls. What Obama has to do is get the next debate focused on foreign policy and especially on Syria. We are at a critical point now, with war is just around the corner. The public has to hear Romney's response on Syria. I heard that he favors providing weapons to the rebels. That would bring us to the point of war. And Americans don't want that.