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Thread: Might as well: Yankee hot stove

  1. #1
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    Might as well: Yankee hot stove

    Okay, here is the Taylor plan for the Yankees this offseason.

    1. Re-sign Matsui to a 3 year deal max. If he wants 4, forget it (although it doesn't matter as he will be re-signed).

    2. Offer Tom Gordon arbitration and get the first round pick we will receive when he signs somewhere else.

    3. Sign BJ Ryan to a 4 year deal - just get him.

    4. Sign Kyle Farnsworth as our 7th inning guy - give him the money that is neccessary. If we can't get Farnsworth, sign Bob Howry or Julian Taveras, but I'd much prefer Farnsworth.

    5. And this is most important, get a centerfielder. There are only 3 guys I would want in CF next year. Brad Wilkerson, Milton Bradley, or Jacque Jones. Wilkerson would most likely come pretty cheap and I would only take him if he did. If he is too expensive (prospect-wise), I would love to take a gamble on Bradley. LA is literally giving him away so I'd take that chance. If neither happen, sign Jacque Jones to play CF.

    6. Find out if Pavano wants to be here next year. If he doesn't, trade Mrs. Pavano for a catching prospect and sign Jarrod Washburn.

    7. Sign a RFer so that Sheff becomes the DH next year. My preference is Brian Giles. If that doesn't work, sign Jacque Jones (if we get Milton or Wilkerson) to play RF. Also, with Sheff becoming the DH, have him work at 1B in ST so that he can give Giambi some days off. Pretty much, Sheff will DH most of the time but Giambi, Giles, and Matsui would also get a number of DH days.

    8. Just figure out the last man in the bullpen. Not a big deal. Either pick up Tanyon's option or sign a LOOGY type guy (Mike Myers, Ricardo Rincon, or re-sign Al Leiter if he doesn't retire).

    9. Address the bench: Make Andy Phillips the backup first baseman. Sign Todd Pratt to be the backup catcher. Sign Miguel Cairo as the utility guy. Womack will most likely have to be kept unless we want to eat the $2 million so have him be the pinchrunner type. Sign one more outfielder that can be a pinchhitter. I wouldn't mind Bernie in that role but I think Torre would play him too much so that doesn't work. Just an allright defensive, allright hitting gype guy.

    My team (even with Giles) will be at least $12 million cheaper than the 2005 team (which is what the Yankees are supposedly aiming for).

    The roster will be:
    1. RJ
    2. Moose
    3. Wang
    4. Chacon
    5. Pavano/Washburn

    6. Mariano
    7. BJ Ryan
    8. Kyle Farnsworth
    9. Aaron Small
    10. Jaret Wright
    11. Sturtze/Rincon/Mike Myers/Al Leiter

    (In batting order)
    12. Jeter
    13. Giles (RF)
    14. A-Rod
    15. Giambi
    16. Sheffield (DH)
    17. Matsui
    18. Milton Bradley (CF)
    19. Jorge
    20. Cano

    21. Phillips
    22. Pratt
    23. Cairo
    24. Womack
    25. 4th outfielder/pinchhitter type

  2. #2
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    do you really feel comfortable with that starting rotation? you don't feel the yankees should go after a starter like millwood or burnett? isn't jeff weaver a free agent?
    Last edited by neckdemon; 11-12-2005 at 11:28 PM.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by neckdemon
    do you really feel comfortable with that starting rotation? you don't feel the yankees should go after a starter like millwood or burnett? isn't jeff weaver a free agent?
    If we traded Pavano, my first 2 choices would be Burnett and Millwood. But, Burnett is going to get a 5 year deal at major $$$ and Millwood will also get big dollars as Scott Boras is his agent. And that is why I would be interested in Washburn. If we don't trade Pavano, then I don't see a place in the rotation for anyone else. And of course there's Jeff, but I don't see that working out.

    Anyways, to actually answer the question, I feel somewhat comfortable with the rotation. I hate the injury concerns in it but at least we would have Small and Wright in the pen to start when those injuries happen (and they will). The key is going to be if Chacon continues with his success and if Wang's shoulder doesn't fall off. Also, we need RJ to pitch very well and Moose to be allright. The lineup would be freaking amazing though.

  4. #4
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    Matsui is signed. 4 years/$50 million. We completely overpaid for him.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    Matsui is signed. 4 years/$50 million. We completely overpaid for him.
    he makes his money back in Asian star power, though

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynBound
    he makes his money back in Asian star power, though
    I'm worried about the 4th year of that deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    I'm worried about the 4th year of that deal.
    yeah i didn't expect that

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    OK. 4 years/$52 million for Matsui. That last year scares me but if it had to be done, it has to be done.

    Tanyon Sturtze's option was picked up for $1.5 million, which means we have 2 more spots for relief pitchers. Hopefully those two will be BJ Ryan and Kyle Farnsworth. BJ Ryan is necessary, whatever the cost.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    OK. 4 years/$52 million for Matsui. That last year scares me but if it had to be done, it has to be done.

    Tanyon Sturtze's option was picked up for $1.5 million, which means we have 2 more spots for relief pitchers. Hopefully those two will be BJ Ryan and Kyle Farnsworth. BJ Ryan is necessary, whatever the cost.
    Agreed, we definitely need Ryan. I have a feeling the Yanks realize this and will go get him. Mariano wont be here forever, I think it will happen.

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    4/52 is fair market value for a player of Matsui's caliber. Dont think it's a bad signing, in four years he may not be as productive but he will be in these next few.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JetFreak89
    Agreed, we definitely need Ryan. I have a feeling the Yanks realize this and will go get him. Mariano wont be here forever, I think it will happen.
    I'm not so sure. The Mets can offer Ryan the closer's job right away. He might not want to cool his heels as a set up guy while he waits for Mo to retire.

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    Interesting points made about Giles in the Daily News today. Great OBP but he doesn't help the team get younger, faster or defensively stronger.

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    There's been reports that Ryan wants to close.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynBound
    There's been reports that Ryan wants to close.
    Yes and you were right the whole time Brooklyn. Unfortunately, I was wrong. Say goodbye to Mr. Ryan as he won't be a Yankee. Lets focus on Farnsworth and Bob Howry for the 2 relief spots we have open. It sucks but nothing we can do about it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Casualfan
    Interesting points made about Giles in the Daily News today. Great OBP but he doesn't help the team get younger, faster or defensively stronger.
    Please when you read Mike Lupica columns, ignore them completely. The guy is an absolute idiot. In the article he stated that the Yankees need a true leadoff hitter so that we can move Jeter back to the 2 spot. I ask, WHY???? Jeter is a great leadoff hitter. Just because he came up as a 2 hitter doesn't mean he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter. And, the fact is, Jeter is a better leadoff hitter than Johnny Damon - who Lupica seemed to imply the Yankees should get, not stating the fact that that will most likely cost us a 5 year deal, which is a much worse deal than we would give to Giles.

    Giles is a great hitter. The best FA hitter on the market and if you look at his numbers away from PETCO last year, he was really amazing. And yes, getting Giles and putting him in CF does make us defensively stronger and younger. Giles is younger than Bernie and Giles is a better defensive CFer than Bernie - and that's not that close. (Not because Giles is good, he's not, just because Bernie was horrendous).

    Oh yeah, there are also now reports that Mrs. Pavano is unhappy here. Get rid of the gal- we don't need her having a sore shoulder and taking a few months vacation again next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    Please when you read Mike Lupica columns, ignore them completely. The guy is an absolute idiot. In the article he stated that the Yankees need a true leadoff hitter so that we can move Jeter back to the 2 spot. I ask, WHY???? Jeter is a great leadoff hitter. Just because he came up as a 2 hitter doesn't mean he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter. And, the fact is, Jeter is a better leadoff hitter than Johnny Damon - who Lupica seemed to imply the Yankees should get, not stating the fact that that will most likely cost us a 5 year deal, which is a much worse deal than we would give to Giles.

    Giles is a great hitter. The best FA hitter on the market and if you look at his numbers away from PETCO last year, he was really amazing. And yes, getting Giles and putting him in CF does make us defensively stronger and younger. Giles is younger than Bernie and Giles is a better defensive CFer than Bernie - and that's not that close. (Not because Giles is good, he's not, just because Bernie was horrendous).

    Oh yeah, there are also now reports that Mrs. Pavano is unhappy here. Get rid of the gal- we don't need her having a sore shoulder and taking a few months vacation again next year.
    If you're going to measure youth against Bernie you might as well recall Moses from the burning bush league. If you're going to measure speed against Bernie call up the bush too.

    Why should Jeter hit 2nd? I'm not sure that he should but I think there are 3 reasons why the Yankees might consider it.

    1. He's an excellent situational hitter. Need an opposite field grounder? Need a long fly? He can do it. He's got exceptional bat handling skills. Probably the best on the team.

    2. Plate discipline. He doesn't waste many at bats, swinging at bad pitches. He's a very patient and confident hitter who's not afraid to fall behind in the count.

    3. Very focused. Some hitters are distracted by the runner on steals and hit and run plays. It's hard hitting second, especially when the pitcher makes a lot of throws to first trying to hold the runner on. It can be very distracting to the hitter unless he's extremely focused. Not everybody can do it.

    If they keep Jeter at leadoff it's fine by me. An excellent defensive centerfielder who also bats leadoff would ideal but defensive skills should be the priority. It would take some pressure off our pitching staff and we've already got plenty of offense.

    I agree with you completely about Pavano. Dump his salary and use it to sign a good defensive centerfielder or set-up man for Mo.
    Last edited by Casualfan; 11-18-2005 at 07:05 PM.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casualfan
    If you're going to measure youth against Bernie you might as well recall Moses from the burning bush league. If you're going to measure speed against Bernie call up the bush too.

    Why should Jeter hit 2nd? I'm not sure that he should but I think there are 3 reasons why the Yankees might consider it.

    1. He's an excellent situational hitter. Need an opposite field grounder? Need a long fly? He can do it. He's got exceptional bat handling skills. Probably the best on the team.

    2. Plate discipline. He doesn't waste many at bats, swinging at bad pitches. He's a very patient and confident hitter who's not afraid to fall behind in the count.

    3. Very focused. Some hitters are distracted by the runner on steals and hit and run plays. It's hard hitting second, especially when the pitcher makes a lot of throws to first trying to hold the runner on. It can be very distracting to the hitter unless he's extremely focused. Not everybody can do it.

    If they keep Jeter at leadoff it's fine by me. An excellent defensive centerfielder who also bats leadoff would ideal but defensive skills should be the priority. It would take some pressure off our pitching staff and we've already got plenty of offense.

    I agree with you completely about Pavano. Dump his salary and use it to sign a good defensive centerfielder or set-up man for Mo.
    Fair enough. But, still, Brian Giles is a great upgrade over Bernie. And, if you read this article, you will see that Giles' skills do not decline much with age.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/sp...l/13score.html

    Take Johnny Damon, the Red Sox center fielder considered one of this off-season's most attractive free agents. Pecota examines many factors beyond his raw statistical record - the effect of playing in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, Damon's age (32), power and speed, even his height and weight - and compares him with every major leaguer since 1949, identifying the trajectories others have taken and assessing the probability Damon will follow them.

    The system forecasts Damon to have about a 25 percent chance of posting an on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .829 next season, but also a 40 percent chance of declining to .761. This is because players like Damon have maintained their performance only for about one year before beginning a consistent, decided decline. In other words, buyer beware.

    Pecota is less pessimistic toward shortstop Rafael Furcal, who at 28 has a better chance of maintaining his performance level. (Though the system suggests that middle infielders age more quickly than classic sluggers.) A relative sleeper could be found in outfielder Brian Giles, who despite being 35 has the kind of skills - excellent power, speed and a fine batting eye - that tend to age relatively slowly.
    I don't see why any of those reasons should tell me that Jeter should hit 2nd, rather than leadoff. In fact, your first reason reminded me of when Jeter was batting 2nd, a lot of times after the leadoff man got on base (to start the game) Jeter would bunt him over to 2nd - therefore wasting his out. I HATED this. In fact, now that I'm rememebering about it, it was one of the reasons I loved him being switched to leadoff. Jeter is way too good of a hitter to be giving up outs like that.

    Your 2nd reason is a reason why he should bat leadoff, not 2nd.

    I don't know if you were implying this, but Damon, for the record, is a bad defensive CFer and is not a better leadoff htiter than Jeter. Juan Pierre is another guy that a lot of people think as a good defensive player that is a good leadoff hitter. Neither are true.

    A good blog/article thing comparing Jeter to Damon for the leadoff spot.

    http://www.yesnetwork.com/yankees/pinstripedblog.asp

    DAMON VS. JETER
    I got a bunch of mail on Damon and Jeter as leadoff hitters, due, I think, to this morning's Mike Lupica's column on same. Simply: there is no inherent reason that Damon is a leadoff hitter and Jeter is a No. 2 hitter except that Lupica (and others) has those images of them in his head. You could bat them eighth and ninth, and if you had a lineup of seven Babe Ruths, that would be the smartest thing you could do. There is no rule of physics nor any commandment in the Bible that says that Damon is immutably a leadoff hitter or that Jeter must inevitably snap back to the second spot.

    I was going to explain this with actual baseball stuff (he said in his highly articulate manner), but reader Ed did it for me. Take it away, Ed:

    I completely agree with you that Jeter is a very good leadoff hitter, but for whatever reason, many still cannot see that. Today, Mike Lupica said that Johnny Damon "fits what the Yankees really need an actual leadoff man." And that the Yankees need Jeter to "return to the No. 2 spot." That seems to echo the sentiments of many in the "Yankees need a leadoff hitter" camp. In other words, people who follow this line of thinking believe that Damon is an elite leadoff hitter and Jeter is out of place. That opens up the perfect argument. Let's compare Jeter to Damon in the important leadoff categories. If Damon is great and Jeter is substandard, we should find some statistical differences. All stats are from 2005:

    OBP
    Jeter: .389
    Damon: .366
    Both very good, but the edge goes to Jeter

    OBP when leading off an inning
    Jeter .409
    Damon .365
    For all of the "clutch" and "situational" guys, Jeter is even better

    Runs (Also known as the way the score is kept)
    Jeter: 122
    Damon: 117
    The Yankees and Red Sox are about even in the middle of the order, so we can call this close to even

    Plate appearance to runs scored ratio (PA/R)
    Jeter: 5.88
    Damon: 6.16
    Wait a minute, Jeter scored more often per plate appearance than Damon?

    Average pitches seen per plate appearance
    Jeter: 3.82
    Damon: 3.72
    Judging by this stat, Jeter was actually a little more patient than Damon, even though their reputations suggest otherwise.

    Stolen bases
    Jeter: 14
    Damon: 18
    For those who don't know, neither team likes to steal bases. But I guess we'll give that edge to Damon.

    Very simply, it is completely ignorant to refer to Damon as the "leadoff hitter the Yankees need" and to Jeter as someone who "belongs in the No. 2 spot." These two are very similar offensive players in every category. I would have no problem with the Yankees putting a hitter of Damon's caliber in the leadoff spot, but to suggest that removing Jeter from the leadoff spot should be a Yankees priority is preposterous.

    Good job, Ed. Since individual seasons can contain fluke performances, it should probably be pointed out that Jeter's career rate stats are .314/.386/.461, while Damon's are .290/.353/.431. For those that care about stolen bases, Jeter trails 215 to 281, an insignificant difference. In careers of almost exactly the same length, Jeter leads in walks 636 to 598. He leads in home runs 169 to 130. Jeter hits for a higher average, reaches base more often, and has more power.

    The main function of the batting order is to distribute playing time. This is the most important fact to understand about lineups. Who bats first in the first inning is not important when you look at games one at a time. Taken over a full season, who bats leadoff every day is more critical, because that player is going to bat more often than every other player on the team. Obviously that includes the guy who bats No. 2.

    Assuming, then, that you had both Jeter and Damon and were going to bat one first and one second, on what basis would you want to give Damon more playing time than Jeter? There is none. It's just an image, or as Bob Dylan sang in "Mr. Tambourine Man," "It's just a shadow you're seeing that he's chasing."

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    Fair enough. But, still, Brian Giles is a great upgrade over Bernie. And, if you read this article, you will see that Giles' skills do not decline much with age.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/sp...l/13score.html



    I don't see why any of those reasons should tell me that Jeter should hit 2nd, rather than leadoff. In fact, your first reason reminded me of when Jeter was batting 2nd, a lot of times after the leadoff man got on base (to start the game) Jeter would bunt him over to 2nd - therefore wasting his out. I HATED this. In fact, now that I'm rememebering about it, it was one of the reasons I loved him being switched to leadoff. Jeter is way too good of a hitter to be giving up outs like that.

    Your 2nd reason is a reason why he should bat leadoff, not 2nd.

    I don't know if you were implying this, but Damon, for the record, is a bad defensive CFer and is not a better leadoff htiter than Jeter. Juan Pierre is another guy that a lot of people think as a good defensive player that is a good leadoff hitter. Neither are true.

    A good blog/article thing comparing Jeter to Damon for the leadoff spot.

    http://www.yesnetwork.com/yankees/pinstripedblog.asp
    The skills I mentioned are sadly becoming a lost art in baseball today. Still they're the skills that imho make for an exceptional number 2 hitter and why I think some people in the organization would like to see Jeter hitting 2nd. I don't think it's a waste of a good hitter. I think the number 2 slot requires a mastery of a wide array of hitting skills that nobody else on the current roster has. That said, I don't personally see the acquisition of a new leadoff hitter as a priority. Improving the defense in center should be. As for Damon, I'm definitely not implying that I prefer him over Giles. He can chase them down but his arm is too much like Bernie's for my comfort. He's a good player but just not the right piece for the Yankees' particular puzzle. We've got enough big bats and big egos. I want to see some youth, speed and defense. Hopefully the Yankees aren't limiting their search to the free agent market. Is there anybody with a good defensive centerfielder who might want Pavano?

    BTW, I enjoyed those links especially the one about the Pecota system of projecting a player's future performance.
    Last edited by Casualfan; 11-19-2005 at 04:43 PM.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casualfan
    I don't think it's a waste of a good hitter. I think the number 2 slot requires a mastery of a wide array of hitting skills that nobody else on the current roster has. That said, I don't personally see the acquisition of a new leadoff hitter as a priority. Improving the defense in center should be. As for Damon, I'm definitely not implying that I prefer him over Giles. He can chase them down but his arm is too much like Bernie's for my comfort. He's a good player but just not the right piece for the Yankees' particular puzzle. We've got enough big bats and big egos. I want to see some youth, speed and defense. Hopefully the Yankees aren't limiting their search to the free agent market. Is there anybody with a good defensive centerfielder who might want Pavano?

    BTW, I enjoyed those links especially the one about the Pecota system of projecting a player's future performance.
    Just a couple things. My point about the waste is that when Jeter bunts the guy over in the first inning, I think it is a waste. Jeter is a very good hitter who gets on base 40% of the time anyways, so giving up an out to get the guy on 2nd base is a waste. If he was a bad hitter, then I would have no problem with it (although I don't want a bad hitter batting 2nd on the team).

    I also want to improve the defense in CF, but I like Giles a lot. Unfortunately, it looks like Giles was just using the Yankees and will not come here.

    Pavano still has some value. Seattle and Detroit would like him if we paid for some of his salary. But, Seattle wouldn't give up Jeremy Reed for him and I don't like the Tigers CFer Nook Logan. Logan is fast as hell but he's a really bad offensive player.

    I wouldn't mind Jacque Jones to play CF but it looks like the Yankees have no interest in that. Aaron Rowand is a possibility in a 3 way deal (that would send Sheff somewhere). Juan Pierre will be available but I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. I'm not a fan of Pierre at all. Milton Bradley will be non-tendered if nobody trades for him. Johnny Damon is available but I would definitely not touch him. I don't konw - there isn't much out there.

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    Looks like they talked to Oakland about Kotsay too but talks fizzled when Oakland asked about Wang and Cano. I'm beginning to wonder if Bubba's going to be our center fielder next year.

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