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Thread: Over/Under Mets wins in 2006

  1. #1
    TMahoney
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    Over/Under Mets wins in 2006

    The # of wins is 92.

    I say OVER.

    I predict 98 wins this year.

    Its going to be a good for Shea regulars.

  2. #2
    i'm not sure of pedro's health right now

  3. #3
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    I'm saying over 92 but less than 98. The starting 5 scare me a little...especially Zambrano. I'm thinking maybe 95. Hopefully we can land a big time starter at the trading deadline.

  4. #4
    TMahoney
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    Heilman is going to come up big this year.

    Pedro big toe is a question mark but if the word around the mets organization is that he'll be ready for the regular season than we're good.

    We finally got a legit closer and a cleanup hitter. Reyes and Wright will only get better. Kaz Matsui anyone? Who knows maybe he might turn out to be a decent player.

    Victor Diaz will win the job in right field and play well. This kid is going to be good.

  5. #5
    98? The Mets made some big improvements but asking for a 15 game increase in their wins is a bit too much. On the bright side, according to Bill James' Team Efficiency ratings, the Mets were the least second least efficient team in the NL and should have won 90 games last year based on their runs created and their expected runs allowed. So, pretty much, according to James, the Mets were unlucky last year. Also, the Marlins and the Braves both got worse which makes a lot of your division games easier.

    Saying all that, I don't think you can ask for Pedro to duplicate his last year and will most likely decline. Glavine's a year older and may decline. I like Heilman and think he'll be good. Zambrano is what he is, and that isn't too good. Trachsel is also a year older and coming off a bad injury. The rotation doesn't scare anyone and, perhaps most importantly, there isn't any depth. I'm not sure who would start if one or two of those guys went down. So, a key for the Mets will that the starters have to stay healthy.

    The bullpen is obviously better but there's some question marks for guys that are setting up for Wagner.

    The lineup is pretty good here and I for one think Beltran will have a comeback year.

    Reyes
    Lo duca
    Beltran
    Delgado
    Wright
    Floyd
    Diaz/Nady
    Kaz Matsui
    Pitcher

    That's not bad, but it would be much better if your 1 and 2 guys got on base more than the .300 and .330 percentage of time that you can expect from them. Plus, Kaz Matsui is a pretty bad hole in the lineup. The middle of the order is still damn good and should produce a lot of runs. The overall defense of the team is pretty good also.

    The key will be health. If they stay healthy, this team should be very good. If there are some injuries in that starting rotation, and there most likely will be, there could be some trouble. How about 93 wins. edit: Actually, I'll raise it to 95. I think they will definitely win the division.

  6. #6
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    i predict over 92, but ofcourse like ya'll said that depends a lot on the starting 5...i'd feel a lot more comfortable if we hadn't traded Seo

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by JazzyJet
    i predict over 92, but ofcourse like ya'll said that depends a lot on the starting 5...i'd feel a lot more comfortable if we hadn't traded Seo
    Yeah, but you did need to get the relievers you received for Seo. I don't like Benson at all but getting just Julio for him isn't a great deal. Benson at least gave you innings.

  8. #8
    TMahoney
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    98? The Mets made some big improvements but asking for a 15 game increase in their wins is a bit too much. On the bright side, according to Bill James' Team Efficiency ratings, the Mets were the least second least efficient team in the NL and should have won 90 games last year based on their runs created and their expected runs allowed. So, pretty much, according to James, the Mets were unlucky last year. Also, the Marlins and the Braves both got worse which makes a lot of your division games easier.

    Saying all that, I don't think you can ask for Pedro to duplicate his last year and will most likely decline. Glavine's a year older and may decline. I like Heilman and think he'll be good. Zambrano is what he is, and that isn't too good. Trachsel is also a year older and coming off a bad injury. The rotation doesn't scare anyone and, perhaps most importantly, there isn't any depth. I'm not sure who would start if one or two of those guys went down. So, a key for the Mets will that the starters have to stay healthy.

    The bullpen is obviously better but there's some question marks for guys that are setting up for Wagner.

    The lineup is pretty good here and I for one think Beltran will have a comeback year.

    Reyes
    Lo duca
    Beltran
    Delgado
    Wright
    Floyd
    Diaz/Nady
    Kaz Matsui
    Pitcher

    That's not bad, but it would be much better if your 1 and 2 guys got on base more than the .300 and .330 percentage of time that you can expect from them. Plus, Kaz Matsui is a pretty bad hole in the lineup. The middle of the order is still damn good and should produce a lot of runs. The overall defense of the team is pretty good also.

    The key will be health. If they stay healthy, this team should be very good. If there are some injuries in that starting rotation, and there most likely will be, there could be some trouble. How about 93 wins. edit: Actually, I'll raise it to 95. I think they will definitely win the division.
    A fair assesment.

    Though I disagree with the order:

    1. Reyes
    2. Beltran
    3. Wright
    4. Delgado
    5. Floyd
    6. Lo Duca
    7. Diaz/Nady
    8. Kaz
    pitcher

  9. #9
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    I'm not as optimistic as you guys are about this team. Although I love that the other teams in the division suck, and I like the balance in the offense, the starting pitching REALLY worries me. They went from a ton of depth to none. They are relying on Trachsel to come back to 04 form, relying on Pedro to stay healthy over the course of a full season (something he barely did last year, and is off to a rough start this year), relying on Heilman to be a consistent ML starter, something he NEVER has been... relying on Zambrano who has been a crap starter his whole career. Not to mention relying on an ancient relic in Glavine.

    If everything breaks right with the staff this team will be special. But starting pitching can break even the best of teams. I think it won't be a disaster, but it won't be perfect. I say O/U is 91 wins, and I'll take the under at 86, falling just short of a division championship.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    Yeah, but you did need to get the relievers you received for Seo. I don't like Benson at all but getting just Julio for him isn't a great deal. Benson at least gave you innings.
    I don't love the deal but they are supposedly high on Maine

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by CarlSpackler
    A fair assesment.

    Though I disagree with the order:

    1. Reyes
    2. Beltran
    3. Wright
    4. Delgado
    5. Floyd
    6. Lo Duca
    7. Diaz/Nady
    8. Kaz
    pitcher
    That's certainly the best order but you know Willie is going to bat LoDuca/Beltran 2-3 no matter what...

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by CarlSpackler
    A fair assesment.

    Though I disagree with the order:

    1. Reyes
    2. Beltran
    3. Wright
    4. Delgado
    5. Floyd
    6. Lo Duca
    7. Diaz/Nady
    8. Kaz
    pitcher
    That's the batting order I would have too but it sounds like Lo Duca would bat 2nd.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynBound
    I don't love the deal but they are supposedly high on Maine
    Oh yeah, I forgot about Maine. I'm not high on him but who knows. In the end, I think the Mets bullpen will be good. Between Padilla, Bradford, Sanchez, Julio, and Bell there should be enough depth to pitch the 7th and 8th innings before Wagner. Out of curiosity, who are Bartolome Fortunato and Yusaku Iriki?

    The key to the season is going to be the health of the starters and the health of Pedro Martinez. With a little luck, you'll be ahead far enough of the Braves at the end of the season that you can rest Pedro before the postseason.

  14. #14
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    I would say 95 wins is very possible if Pedro and Glavine stay healthy.

    If Pedro goes down and they dont trade for Zito I could see an ugly season.

  15. #15
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    I would've said over if they had either Seo or Benson. Not because they are amazing, but it would provide some depth for a staff that will suffer injuries. And I think they overvalued arms in the pen this off-season, especially with a rotation as old as they are with three of the starters having injury concerns either currently or in the past. I do not like the prospect of guys like Maine and even Bannister filling in starts.

    They really need to get Reyes out of the lead-off spot, because they are giving teams that many more outs over the year. They'll never do it, but this is the order I would love to see:
    Beltran
    Diaz
    Wright
    Delgado
    Floyd
    LoDuca
    Reyes
    Second baseman- (I actually think Kaz might surprise some people this year.)

    Like JWF said, James and the HBT had the Mets as one of the least effective teams. I think they were more of an 88-win team than 90, and Delgado will certainly give them a few more games, as will their bullpen. Even though they overvalued the pen, they still will gain a few more wins as a result. Problem is their staff won't win as many games as they should've last year. Heilman is the X-Factor, imo, because if he can pitch in the rotation like he did in the pen, then he could challenge Glavine for the 2-spot in the rotation.

  16. #16
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    I'll believe this Mets team is for real when they go to Atlanta and FOR ONCE win a series - ANY series - there.

    Having said that, I'm on board with those who have concerns with the depth, age, and long-term health of the starters. Besides Pedro and his toe, you have 42-year-old Glavine plus a 35-year-old Trachsel coming back from an injury-decimated 2005. And I'm still waiting to see the Victor Zambrano that Mets brass was impressed enough to swap our best lefty pitching prospect for 2 seasons ago. Finally, there's Aaron Heilman. My wait-and-see on this kid consists of the league having gotten its first good look at him last year, but not often as a starter. Kind of like an ambush job. Let's see what a complete season as a starter has in store.

    As to the offense, I feel this lineup, like that of the Yanks, will steamroll their way to many wins if/when the pitching falters. At least that will increase the margin for error by our starters, something I haven't had the luxury of saying about the Mets for quite some time.

  17. #17
    Jeff Weaver would have been a good fit for the Mets this year. He's not great, and he's pretty average, but at least he is a guy that you can rely on to give you 200 innings.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlSpackler
    A fair assesment.

    Though I disagree with the order:

    1. Reyes
    2. Beltran
    3. Wright
    4. Delgado
    5. Floyd
    6. Lo Duca
    7. Diaz/Nady
    8. Kaz
    pitcher
    the problem with that lineup is that it would be heaven for opposing managers. the thing it does is let our 2 big left handed power hitters hit right next to each other in the lineup. That lets the managers plan accordingly.(i.e. bring a lefty specialist in from the pen in the late innings.) Althoug for individual strengths and weaknesses it makes the most sense, but it is easy to manage against.

    and im a met fan

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by norm428
    the problem with that lineup is that it would be heaven for opposing managers. the thing it does is let our 2 big left handed power hitters hit right next to each other in the lineup. That lets the managers plan accordingly.(i.e. bring a lefty specialist in from the pen in the late innings.) Althoug for individual strengths and weaknesses it makes the most sense, but it is easy to manage against.

    and im a met fan
    Switch Wright and Delgado and your problem is solved. Delgado should be the #3 hitter anyways as he is the best hitter on the team.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan
    Switch Wright and Delgado and your problem is solved. Delgado should be the #3 hitter anyways as he is the best hitter on the team.
    that would work if willie randolph hasnt publicly stated that carlos delgado is going to bat 4th.

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