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As expected the liberal media and NY Times tells half the story....April's NIE report
[B]Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate .Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States. dated April 2006 [/B]
United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists. We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.
• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.
• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.
[I]We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere. [/I]
• [B]The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight. We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate. [/B]
• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit. Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists. radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens. •
[B]The jihadists. greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution.an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari.a-based governance spanning the Muslim world.is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists. propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade. [/B]
• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.
• [B]Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders. If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit. [/B]
[I]Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role. [/I]
• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa.ida.
• Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.
• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al- Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.
• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al- Qa.ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones. We judge that most jihadist groups.both well-known and newly formed.will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.
• CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups. While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.
Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.
• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial support.
[QUOTE]NIE: Al Qaeda 'damaged,' becoming more scattered
POSTED: 6:33 p.m. EDT, September 26, 2006
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Islamist terrorists are adapting to global counterterrorism efforts, as the "jihadist movement" is becoming more decentralized and spawning offshoot organizations with anti-American agendas, according to a declassified intelligence document released Tuesday.
Also, the National Intelligence Estimate on global terrorism trends states that the U.S.-led Iraq war has become a "cause celebre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of U.S. involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement."
Earlier Tuesday, President Bush angrily lambasted a media report that said the document asserted the Iraq war had increased the terrorist threat to the United States.
He added that the media accounts of the leak of the National Intelligence Estimate were meant to "create confusion in the minds of the American people" and promised to push Director of National Security John Negroponte to declassify the findings.
"He'll do so in such a way that we'll be able to protect sources and methods ... that our intelligence community uses," Bush said during a joint White House press conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, "and then everybody can draw their own conclusions about what the report says." (Watch U.S. to declassify terror report -- 2:03)
The judgments state that U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts have "seriously damaged" al Qaeda's leadership and operations, but that the group still poses "the greatest threat to the homeland and U.S. interests."
It adds that the number of Muslims who describe themselves as jihadists is increasing, and that "if this trend continues, threats to U.S. interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide."[/QUOTE]
yet the Clinton News Network stops there and does not report this section of the NIE report:
[I]Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.[/I]
The report credits four factors with facilitating the spread of the jihadist movement: 1) "entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice and fear of Western domination;" 2) jihad in Iraq; 3) the torpid pace of economic, social and political reforms in Muslim nations; and 4) a "pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among Muslims."
[QUOTE]The solution requires more than killing or capturing al Qaeda leaders, the estimate states, but "the loss of key leaders, particularly Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and (Abu Musab) al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups," the report states.
The NIE was issued in April, several weeks before al Qaeda in Iraq leader al-Zarqawi was killed in a U.S. airstrike.
Among ways to combat the growing Islamist terror movement are exposing the jihadists' radical ideology and urging respected Muslim leaders to denounce terrorist tactics, according to the report.
For instance, the idea of a government based in ultra-conservative Islamic law, or sharia, doesn't sit well with the majority of Muslims, the report states. Exposing the jihadists' "ultimate political solution" would help divide jihadists "from the audiences they seek to persuade."
Also, condemnations of violence by notable clerics signal a trend from terror to peaceful political activism, the report states. The rejections of violence reduce "the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror."[/QUOTE]
of course the Clinton News Network purposely leaves out one of the primary solutions from the report: [I]If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit. [/I]
[QUOTE]The full findings are posted at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Web site. ([url]www.dni.gov)[/url].
Bush said he agreed with the report's conclusions that al Qaeda is becoming more diffuse and decentralized but rejected the interpretation that the Iraq war had made the U.S. less safe.
"This government is going to do whatever it takes to protect this homeland. We're not going to let their excuses stop us from staying on the offense," Bush said.
"The best way to protect America is to defeat these killers overseas so we do not have to face them here at home," Bush said. "We're not going to let lies and propaganda by the enemy dictate how we win this war." (Watch Bush call critics of war 'naive' -- 3:10)
On Monday evening, Negroponte rejected the argument that the Iraq war had increased the terrorist threat against the United States.
Negroponte conceded that Iraq had become a training ground for a new generation of jihadists.
Democrats push for more disclosures
On Tuesday, congressional Democrats put pressure on the administration to disclose more analysis by the intelligence community on Iraq and the new generation of Islamic terrorists. (Watch Iraq at the center of a highly charged day in Washington -- 2:23 )
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California, asked that the chamber go into secret session to discuss the intelligence reports, something the House has not done since 1983. The proposal was denied by a vote of 171-217 along mostly party lines.
Senate Democrats Tuesday also demanded that Negroponte testify about the report and fully declassify not only the portion leaked over the weekend but also all intelligence estimates dealing with terrorism.
"We want to make certain that what we're doing in Iraq and around the world contains and destroys the threat of terrorism," Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, said. "This National Intelligence Estimate suggests just the opposite: that our strategy in Iraq is adding to the problem and not diminishing the problem."
Rep. Jane Harman, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, called on the White House to release a second, previously unknown national intelligence document that focuses solely on Iraq.
Harman insisted there is a draft NIE that has not been revealed to the public.
"I have learned there is an NIE on Iraq, specifically on Iraq, that has been left in draft form at the National Intelligence Council," the California congresswoman said at a news conference.
Harman said the document has been kept in draft form so that it won't be seen before midterm elections.
Sen. Carl Levin, D-Michigan, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN that he is not aware of any draft dealing solely with Iraq, but he believes Harman is reliable.
"If she says she has that information, I wouldn't doubt it for one minute," he said.
The call for declassifying the first NIE has been bipartisan. Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, on Monday called on Bush to declassify the report so that the public can "come to their own conclusions." Roberts, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he was negotiating with Negroponte's office to have a declassified version of the findings released.
CNN's Andrea Koppel and Ted Barrett contributed to this report
It's absurd CNN calls themselves a news network.....