Arizona Senator John McCain (R) Senator John McCain (R), one of the most vocal advocates of sending more troops to Iraq, has lost ground in the Election 2008 sweepstakes. He now trails both John Edwards (D) and Barack Obama (D) in general election match-ups. Prior to this survey, McCain had been ahead of every Democratic challenger in every Rasmussen Reports poll (see summary of general election match-ups).
Obama leads McCain 47% to 44%. Edwards also holds a three-point lead, 46% to 43%. A month ago, McCain held a two-point edge over Obama and a five point lead over Edwards.
McCain’s support has declined among unaffiliated voters. Obama now leads McCain by an 11-point margin among this important segment of the electorate. Edwards and McCain are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.
McCain’s position on Iraq—considered the most important issue by voters--may be taking a toll. Most Americans want exactly the opposite of what McCain advocates and want to reduce the number of troops in Iraq. Public confidence in the War on Terror has declined sharply in recent months and a plurality now believes that the terrorists are winning. Ninety-four percent (94%) of Americans say it is likely that American soldiers will still be facing combat in Iraq when the next President is sworn into office on January 20, 2009.
In addition to McCain, Obama now leads in head-to-head match-ups with Mike Huckabee (R), Mitt Romney (R), and Newt Gingrich (R). Rudy Giuliani is the only Republican with an advantage over the charismatic Democrat.
Edwards leads Huckabee and Romney, but trails Giuliani.
Obama and Edwards trail only Senator Hillary Clinton (D) in the Democratic Primary competition. McCain trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the chase for the Republican nomination. Despite trailing Giuliani in the polls, McCain is considered by some pundits to be the Republican frontrunner.
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This national telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 17-18, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)
The fact is, either McCain or giuliani will cruise to an election victory in the general election, because both have the ability to pull in independents and moderate democrats.
The media is already playing McCain as a tired old man. G-man is playing it smart. He was on CSpan Sunday evening up in NH. He really spoke about how it is for the republicans.
I know that he is going to be tough for the democrats to beat. On the other hand he did not run against Hillary for her first senate run.
It could be due to the fact he was going thru a tough time in his marriage. He did mention his new wife several times on Sunday. He stated that the party that has an agenda for the future of America will be the party that wins.
He named a few of his ideas. He then mentioned that he has governed and balanced budgets before. His experience theme seemed to click with the audience.
I think he's a moderate, but he happens to be on the wrong side of just about every issue (abortion, flag burning amendment, gun control, writing sexual orientation into the hate crimes statute, etc.), in my opinion.
In other words, if he was the nominee and running against a democrat with a straight party line background, I'd vote for him as a vote against partisanship. But if he was running against a democrat who is also a moderate with a demonstrated ability to cross party lines (like Obama, for instance) I doubt he'd get my vote.
Guiliani is socially liberal, and that will never fly with the Republican base of fundamental Christians. IMO, of course...we'll see what happens.
That could hurt him in the primary, but if its a two horse race between he and McCain, another social liberal, Rudy isn't in bad shape.
And if he won the primary, it wouldn't matter since no fundamental Christian will vote for a half muslim or Hillary.
It all depends on the opponent, but IMO Rudy is the front runner for Republicans and the WH because of his popularity after 9/11, his conservative stance on everything but social issues and his realistic chance to win NY state and her 31 electoral votes for the GOP for the first time in a long time.