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Thread: McCain Loses Ground: Trails Obama, Edwards

  1. #1

    McCain Loses Ground: Trails Obama, Edwards

    January 23, 2007

    Arizona Senator John McCain (R) Senator John McCain (R), one of the most vocal advocates of sending more troops to Iraq, has lost ground in the Election 2008 sweepstakes. He now trails both John Edwards (D) and Barack Obama (D) in general election match-ups. Prior to this survey, McCain had been ahead of every Democratic challenger in every Rasmussen Reports poll (see summary of general election match-ups).

    [COLOR=Red][B]Obama leads McCain 47% to 44%[/B].[/COLOR] Edwards also holds a three-point lead, 46% to 43%. A month ago, McCain held a two-point edge over Obama and a five point lead over Edwards.

    McCain’s support has declined among unaffiliated voters. Obama now leads McCain by an 11-point margin among this important segment of the electorate. Edwards and McCain are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

    McCain’s position on Iraq—considered the most important issue by voters--may be taking a toll. Most Americans want exactly the opposite of what McCain advocates and want to reduce the number of troops in Iraq. Public confidence in the War on Terror has declined sharply in recent months and a plurality now believes that the terrorists are winning. Ninety-four percent (94%) of Americans say it is likely that American soldiers will still be facing combat in Iraq when the next President is sworn into office on January 20, 2009.

    In addition to McCain, Obama now leads in head-to-head match-ups with Mike Huckabee (R), Mitt Romney (R), and Newt Gingrich (R). Rudy Giuliani is the only Republican with an advantage over the charismatic Democrat.

    Edwards leads Huckabee and Romney, but trails Giuliani.

    Obama and Edwards trail only Senator Hillary Clinton (D) in the Democratic Primary competition. McCain trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the chase for the Republican nomination. Despite trailing Giuliani in the polls, McCain is considered by some pundits to be the Republican frontrunner.

    Crosstabs and Historical Data available for Premium Members only.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

    The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

    Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

    Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

    During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

    Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

    This national telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 17-18, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)


    [url]http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Presidential%20Match-Ups/McCainvs.ObamaEdwards20070123.htm[/url]

  2. #2
    Hardly a sign of anything to come.

    I would be surprised if the public didn't flip those numbers at least a dozen times in the next 12-18 months.

  3. #3
    I had a job offer from Rasmussen Reports back in July... I should have taken it, what a schmuck I am.


    Anyway, this poll means pretty damn close to nothing right about now. It's funny how you highlight it in red as if it were the results of the Presidential election, though. Keep on truckin', dawgg.

  4. #4
    Jets Insider VIP
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    [QUOTE=pauliec]I had a job offer from Rasmussen Reports back in July... I should have taken it, what a schmuck I am.


    Anyway, this poll means pretty damn close to nothing right about now. It's funny how you highlight it in red as if it were the results of the Presidential election, though. Keep on truckin', dawgg.[/QUOTE]


    of course these polls matter!! are you nuts!

    It's only Rasmussen's polls which show the President's JA rating between 45%-49% that mean squat....

  5. #5
    Ras is a well respected polling site. McCain is losing his grip. The word is everywhere.

  6. #6
    The fact is, either McCain or giuliani will cruise to an election victory in the general election, because both have the ability to pull in independents and moderate democrats.

  7. #7
    [QUOTE=doggin94it]The fact is, either McCain or giuliani will cruise to an election victory in the general election, because both have the ability to pull in independents and moderate democrats.[/QUOTE]

    The media is already playing McCain as a tired old man. G-man is playing it smart. He was on CSpan Sunday evening up in NH. He really spoke about how it is for the republicans.

    I know that he is going to be tough for the democrats to beat. On the other hand he did not run against Hillary for her first senate run.

    It could be due to the fact he was going thru a tough time in his marriage. He did mention his new wife several times on Sunday. He stated that the party that has an agenda for the future of America will be the party that wins.

    He named a few of his ideas. He then mentioned that he has governed and balanced budgets before. His experience theme seemed to click with the audience.

  8. #8
    Jets Insider VIP
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    [QUOTE=doggin94it]The fact is, either McCain or giuliani will cruise to an election victory in the general election, because both have the ability to pull in independents and moderate democrats.[/QUOTE]

    What do you think of Hagel, Akiva?

  9. #9
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan]What do you think of Hagel, Akiva?[/QUOTE]


    Well right now Hagel has appeal as he has elevated his name recognition on the liberal side recently. Akiva???????

  10. #10
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan]What do you think of Hagel, Akiva?[/QUOTE]

    I think he's a moderate, but he happens to be on the wrong side of just about every issue (abortion, flag burning amendment, gun control, writing sexual orientation into the hate crimes statute, etc.), in my opinion.

    In other words, if he was the nominee and running against a democrat with a straight party line background, I'd vote for him as a vote against partisanship. But if he was running against a democrat who is also a moderate with a demonstrated ability to cross party lines (like Obama, for instance) I doubt he'd get my vote.

  11. #11
    flushingjet
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    2 libs talking about Hagel...pretty lame

    not a snowballs chance in hell for any part of a GOP
    Presidential ticket..period

    [url="http://quiz.ontheissues.org/Chuck_Hagel_VoteMatch.htm"]http://quiz.ontheissues.org/Chuck_Hagel_VoteMatch.htm[/url]

    foreign policy is issue #1 and immigration #2...
    not the usual lib fodder like
    [url="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=432094&in_page_id=1770"]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=432094&in_page_id=1770[/url]

    as much chance as the other lib wet dream....
    [url="http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20070129/i/r252519238.jpg"]http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20070129/i/r252519238.jpg[/url]?

    dream on....keep on dreaming till your dreaming comes true

  12. #12
    the only republican who worries me is RU-DY

    here's my question: will the Republicans REALLY run a divorced, pro-choice mayor of NY on their ticket?

    i don't think they have the vision for such a move

    politically it's the only way for the GOP to win

    it's either that or hope Hillary wins and then rip her to shreds.

  13. #13
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    [QUOTE=flushingjet]...2 libs talking about Hagel...pretty lame...[/QUOTE]

    Doggin never struck me as liberal before...but now that you mention it. :rolleyes:

  14. #14
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan]Doggin never struck me as liberal before...but now that you mention it. :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

    That's one of the reasons I know I'm always right - the avowed liberals think I'm a conservative, the conservatives think I'm a liberal :D

  15. #15
    flushingjet
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    [QUOTE=bitonti]the only republican who worries me is RU-DY

    here's my question: will the Republicans REALLY run a divorced, pro-choice mayor of NY on their ticket?

    i don't think they have the vision for such a move

    politically it's the only way for the GOP to win

    it's either that or hope Hillary wins and then rip her to shreds.[/QUOTE]

    Buitoni,
    Rudy is the GOP version of edgy.

    Not as edgy as a Muslim or a lesbian, but much better than a
    brainwashed POW soft on free speech and illegal aliens.

    Being pro-choice is way down on the list of national priorities
    for a GOP Presidential nominee...that problem's left for the SCOTUS to overturn when Stevens leaves

  16. #16
    flushingjet
    Guest
    [QUOTE=PlumberKhan]Doggin never struck me as liberal before...but now that you mention it. :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

    No one mentions Hagel and President in the same sentence
    except libs.

  17. #17
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    [QUOTE=flushingjet]Buitoni,
    Rudy is the GOP version of edgy.

    Not as edgy as a Muslim or a lesbian, but much better than a
    brainwashed POW soft on free speech and illegal aliens.

    Being pro-choice is way down on the list of national priorities
    for a President...that problem's left for the SCOTUS to overturn
    when Stevens leaves[/QUOTE]

    Guiliani is socially liberal, and that will never fly with the Republican base of fundamental Christians. IMO, of course...we'll see what happens.

  18. #18
    TMahoney
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    [QUOTE=parafly]Guiliani is socially liberal, and that will never fly with the Republican base of fundamental Christians. IMO, of course...we'll see what happens.[/QUOTE]

    That could hurt him in the primary, but if its a two horse race between he and McCain, another social liberal, Rudy isn't in bad shape.

    And if he won the primary, it wouldn't matter since no fundamental Christian will vote for a half muslim or Hillary.

    It all depends on the opponent, but IMO Rudy is the front runner for Republicans and the WH because of his popularity after 9/11, his conservative stance on everything but social issues and his realistic chance to win NY state and her 31 electoral votes for the GOP for the first time in a long time.

  19. #19
    And the truth is, a huge swath of america is "conservative on everything but social issues"

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