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Thread: Scientist Makes $20,000 Bet With algore.... Gore and CLM Silent.

  1. #1
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    Scientist Makes $20,000 Bet With algore.... Gore and CLM Silent.

    http://www.spiked-online.com/index.p.../article/3533/

    http://theclimatebet.com/

    The silence from Gore and the criminal liberal media is deafening.........

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeanPatsFan
    http://www.spiked-online.com/index.p.../article/3533/

    http://theclimatebet.com/

    The silence from Gore and the criminal liberal media is deafening.........
    Like this guy said, cheap publicity stunt:

    http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/


    Following on from this post, I emailed J Scott Armstrong, he pointed me to this web site/blog and the bet is outlined in more detail in this post.

    At a glance, he is using the most obvious and trivial trick, that he appeared to have ruled out with his talk of forecasting climate change on this page. In fact, the terms of his challenge refer to forecasting annual mean temperatures at a handful of points, using raw model output. The trivial trick here is that of course the models do not directly represent local temperature (typical resolution is ~300km horizontally) and they also have significant regional biases, so meaningfully relating their output to local temperature requires at a minimum some sort of bias correction and/or downscaling. Such bias adjustment is an entirely routine procedure in many branches of forecasting, it is inconceivable that Armstrong does not realise this.

    The other big problem is the time scale: the bet is for 1-10 year forecasts. While there are probably some people who can produce usable forecasts over at least the seasonal to annual time scale (and maybe further in some cases), on the whole these aren't the same people as those doing 100 year projections. The GCMs used in the IPCC report don't have any proper initialisation scheme that would enable them to make meaningful annual forecasts, and no-one has ever claimed that they do. From their point of view, whether one year is warmer than the last is basically a matter of chance, and a "persistence" forecast is a pretty reasonable reasonable choice.

    A much fairer test of the models would be to look at something like a 20 year trend for global mean temperature (and possibly at a more regional scale: I haven't looked in detail at this). Armstrong claims to be amenable to altering his terms: I've emailed him with these points and will report on his response. Based on what I have read, I'm not optimistic. It reads like a cheap publicity stunt rather than serious challenge.

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    JetsInsider.com Legend
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    Expecting the mainstream media to cover this is moronic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti
    Expecting the mainstream media to cover this is moronic.

    Ironically, Paris hilton is all over the news.

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  6. #6
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    The point is algore won't debate ANYONE over global warming.

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    WHO CARES?

    Al Gore isn't a public official anymore, nor will he be in the future.

    maybe you should spend time caring about the current VP, a.k.a. Dick Pure Evil Cheney.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti
    WHO CARES?

    Al Gore isn't a public official anymore, nor will he be in the future.

    maybe you should spend time caring about the current VP, a.k.a. Dick Pure Evil Cheney.


  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY
    another quality contribution from CBNY

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti
    another quality contribution from CBNY

    Yes, not nearly as substantive as calling the VP "pure evil."

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by jets5ever
    Yes, not nearly as substantive as calling the VP "pure evil."
    actually 5ever words are more substantive than emoticons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil Diamond
    Ironically, Paris hilton is all over the news.
    that's just so they don't tell you what is really going on in the world

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    What does this guy Armstrong know? One guy against the thousands who are right? Science is overrated anyways.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti
    actually 5ever words are more substantive than emoticons.

    'cause as they say- a word is worth 1000 pictures....

  15. #15
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    by the way this thread title is bunk

    a bet has to be agreed upon by all parties

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    I dont know if he is right or wrong but, I totally agree with:

    "The aim of the bet is really to promote the proper use of science, rather than the opinion-led science we have seen lately"

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