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Thread: My 5 NCAA Picks for Tomorrow

  1. #1
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    My 5 NCAA Picks for Tomorrow

    Alright all,

    My NFL picks thread is floating around here somewhere and I'll bump it tomorrow before the games. I was 17-5 entering Thursday night's NCAA football action and I split on A&M and the Over, winning one and losing the other thus leaving me at 18-6 on the year. I hit the Over in tonights OKL-TULSA game (I have CTM from JI as my witness as we talked about the game over PMs) raising the record thus far to 19-6.

    Again, I know it, you know it, and Lord knows the Gambling God's know it but a streak like this will not live forever so I am taking advantage of it while I can. Please feel free to go along with any of the picks you see below just don't blame me if they don't come out.

    It is called "gambling" for a reason.

    Texas Tech -6 over Oklahoma St.

    Texas Tech has one of the most prolific offenses in all of college football and one of the top 5-7 QBs in college football to boot. Graham Harrell has 14 TDs and only 2 INTs while throwing I believe 34 TDs last season and only 9 INTs. Texas Tech averages damn near 50 points per game and they are 3-0.

    Here is the kicker:

    Troy dominated Oklahoma St last weekend. Troy runs the exact spread offense that Texas Tech runs but they don't do it nearly as well, they don't have nearly as good of a QB, and they don't have anywhere near the atheletes at the skill positions that Texas Tech has. If Troy's version of the spread beat OKL St. into submission then T-Tech's should do it worse.

    One underrated element of Tech's 3-0 start has been vast improvement in its defensive line. T-Tech is tied for 12th nationally with an average of 3.3 sacks per game and they will face an Oklahoma State offensive line that has struggled protecting the quarterback ranking 11th in their conference in sacks allowed.

    This one could become a rout. I think the 6pt spread is a joke!


    Indiana (+2.5) at home over Illinois

    Indiana has an awesome Sophmore QB:

    http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playe...playerId=174294

    The kid has thrown for 9 TDs and only 3 INTs while also rushing for 3 more TDs and 317 yards on the ground!

    That means he has accounted for 12 TDs in 3 games! That is $$$$$.

    They also have a dominant 6'7'' WR (James Hardy). This season he has 10 catches, which have gone for an average of 24.5 yards, and five TDs.

    Lastly, Indiana has a deadly pass rush! They are tied for first nationally with 17 sacks in three games and those sacks have totaled a loss of 122 yards.

    Now Illinois has a mobile QB of their own (Juice Williams) but he is nowhere near the aerial threat that Lewis is as he has only thrown 1 TD and 1 INT so far this season while averaging below 9 yards per completion.

    This game should be close but Indiana has the much better QB, the much better pass rush, and they are playing at home.


    New Mexico State +16.5 @ Auburn

    Auburn is in disarray right now. Tommy Tuberville has ruined their offense and they just benched their upperclassman starting QB last weekend mid-game for being ineffective and replaced him with an underclassman who looked equally inept.

    Auburn is 1-2 and has only scored 23, 23, and 14 points in their three games.

    New Mexico State has a very good offense led by an awesome Junior QB who threw 34 TDs and only 9 INTs last year:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/playe...playerId=162199

    His INTs are a bit up this year but he still has 11 TD passes in 3 games.

    While New Mexico's defense is nothing to brag about, I see NO reason why Auburn should be favored by so many damn points here.


    BYU -11.5 over Air Force

    They play each other every year and BYU hasn't lost to Air Force since 2002. Air Force is playing on the road and their offense is built around their running game. Their passing game is rather bad.

    BYU on the other hand, they are playing at home and their offense is built around a dominant passing game. They throw the ball damn near 50 times per game and they are very successful in doing so.

    BYU is the defending Conference Champs and they are just a bigger and more physical team. BYU has an offensive line that, at least size-wise compares favorably with NFL squads. BYU's starting offensive linemen average 318.4 pounds while Air Forceís three starting defensive linemen and their backups average 260. BYU will control the line of scrimmage and once they get out to a lead, Air Force doesn't have the aerial attack to get them back in the game.

    BYU should roll here at home despite the fact Air Force is 3-0 (they played nobody and last week scored two TDs in the last 6 minutes of the game to force OT then won in OT) and BYU is 1-2 (they played all 3 games on the road vs. far superior opponents then Air Force has including a game vs. #13 ranked UCLA that they only lost by 10 points).

    BYU will roll here.


    Florida International (+33) over Kansas

    FIU has been punished by the college football Gods to start this season as they played 3 consecutive games versus 3 perennial college fooball powerhouses; Penn State, Maryland, and University of Miami. Of course they are 0-3 playing that schedule, however, the FIU defense has played very solid football this season considering they were playing against opponents of superior talent.

    They did get blown out by Penn St, but their offense lost 5 FUMBLES setting PSU up with ridiculous field position for easy TD drives of:

    3 plays, 20 yards - TD

    3 plays, 25 yards - TD

    3 plays, 29 yards - TD

    4 plays, 37 yards - TD

    1 play, 16 yards - TD

    The Penn St. offense only had one drive of over 50 yards.

    Then, they played vs. Miami and Maryland and only lost those two games by an average of 15 points and vs. those two very good teams their defense only allowed an average of 24.5 ppg.

    While I donít expect them to stop the Kansas' HIGH POWERED offense, I do anticipate them hanging around in this one.

    Can Kansas win by more then 33 points? Of course they can. But after playing those three tough defenses in weeks 1-3, nothing Kansas' defense (they are an offensive minded team) can do is going to be worse then what they have already seen.

    I think it is more likely that Kansas rolls to a victory .... but by 24-28 points more so then 33.

    Again, both vs. Maryland and Miami, FIU would have covered this spread easily and without 5 lost fumbles on their side of the field .... who knows about vs. Penn St?
    Last edited by JMJ; 09-22-2007 at 08:12 AM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by ITWT
    Alright all,

    My NFL picks thread is floating around here somewhere and I'll bump it tomorrow before the games. I was 17-5 entering Thursday night's NCAA football action and I split on A&M and the Over, winning one and losing the other thus leaving me at 18-6 on the year. I hit the Over in tonights OKL-TULSA game (I have CTM from JI as my witness as we talked about the game over PMs) raising the record thus far to 19-6.

    Again, I know it, you know it, and Lord knows the Gambling God's know it but a streak like this will not live forever so I am taking advantage of it while I can. Please feel free to go along with any of the picks you see below just don't blame me if they don't come out.

    It is called "gambling" for a reason.

    Texas Tech -6 over Oklahoma St.

    Texas Tech has one of the most prolific offenses in all of college football and one of the top 5-7 QBs in college football to boot. Graham Harrell has 14 TDs and only 2 INTs while throwing I believe 34 TDs last season and only 9 INTs. Texas Tech averages damn near 50 points per game and they are 3-0.

    Here is the kicker:

    Troy dominated Oklahoma St last weekend. Troy runs the exact spread offense that Texas Tech runs but they don't do it nearly as well, they don't have nearly as good of a QB, and they don't have anywhere near the atheletes at the skill positions that Texas Tech has. If Troy's version of the spread beat OKL St. into submission then T-Tech's should do it worse.

    One underrated element of Tech's 3-0 start has been vast improvement in its defensive line. T-Tech is tied for 12th nationally with an average of 3.3 sacks per game and they will face an Oklahoma State offensive line that has struggled protecting the quarterback ranking 11th in their conference in sacks allowed.

    This one could become a rout. I think the 6pt spread is a joke!


    Indiana (+2.5) at home over Illinois

    Indiana has an awesome Sophmore QB:

    http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playe...playerId=174294

    The kid has thrown for 9 TDs and only 3 INTs while also rushing for 3 more TDs and 317 yards on the ground!

    That means he has accounted for 12 TDs in 3 games! That is $$$$$.

    They also have a dominant 6'7'' WR (James Hardy). This season he has 10 catches, which have gone for an average of 24.5 yards, and five TDs.

    Lastly, Indiana has a deadly pass rush! They are tied for first nationally with 17 sacks in three games and those sacks have totaled a loss of 122 yards.

    Now Illinois has a mobile QB of their own (Juice Williams) but he is nowhere near the aerial threat that Lewis is as he has only thrown 1 TD and 1 INT so far this season while averaging below 9 yards per completion.

    This game should be close but Indiana has the much better QB, the much better pass rush, and they are playing at home.


    New Mexico State +16.5 @ Auburn

    Auburn is in disarray right now. Tommy Tuberville has ruined their offense and they just benched their upperclassman starting QB last weekend mid-game for being ineffective and replaced him with an underclassman who looked equally inept.

    Auburn is 1-2 and has only scored 23, 23, and 14 points in their three games.

    New Mexico State has a very good offense led by an awesome Junior QB who threw 34 TDs and only 9 INTs last year:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/playe...playerId=162199

    His INTs are a bit up this year but he still has 11 TD passes in 3 games.

    While New Mexico's defense is nothing to brag about, I see NO reason why Auburn should be favored by so many damn points here.


    BYU -11.5 over Air Force

    They play each other every year and BYU hasn't lost to Air Force since 2002. Air Force is playing on the road and their offense is built around their running game. Their passing game is rather bad.

    BYU on the other hand, they are playing at home and their offense is built around a dominant passing game. They throw the ball damn near 50 times per game and they are very successful in doing so.

    BYU is the defending Conference Champs and they are just a bigger and more physical team. BYU has an offensive line that, at least size-wise compares favorably with NFL squads. BYU's starting offensive linemen average 318.4 pounds while Air Forceís three starting defensive linemen and their backups average 260. BYU will control the line of scrimmage and once they get out to a lead, Air Force doesn't have the aerial attack to get them back in the game.

    BYU should roll here at home despite the fact Air Force is 3-0 (they played nobody and last week scored two TDs in the last 6 minutes of the game to force OT then won in OT) and BYU is 1-2 (they played all 3 games on the road vs. far superior opponents then Air Force has including a game vs. #13 ranked UCLA that they only lost by 10 points).

    BYU will roll here.


    Florida International (+33) over Kansas

    FIU has been punished by the college football Gods to start this season as they played 3 consecutive games versus 3 perennial college fooball powerhouses; Penn State, Maryland, and University of Miami. Of course they are 0-3 playing that schedule, however, the FIU defense has played very solid football this season considering they were playing against opponents of superior talent.

    They did get blown out by Penn St, but their offense lost 5 FUMBLES setting PSU up with ridiculous field position for easy TD drives of:

    3 plays, 20 yards - TD

    3 plays, 25 yards - TD

    3 plays, 29 yards - TD

    4 plays, 37 yards - TD

    1 play, 16 yards - TD

    The Penn St. offense only had one drive of over 50 yards.

    Then, they played vs. Miami and Maryland and only lost those two games by an average of 15 points and vs. those two very good teams their defense only allowed an average of 24.5 ppg.

    While I donít expect them to stop the Kansas' HIGH POWERED offense, I do anticipate them hanging around in this one.

    Can Kansas win by more then 33 points? Of course they can. But after playing those three tough defenses in weeks 1-3, nothing Kansas' defense (they are an offensive minded team) can do is going to be worse then what they have already seen.

    I think it is more likely that Kansas rolls to a victory .... but by 24-28 points more so then 33.

    Again, both vs. Maryland and Miami, FIU would have covered this spread easily and without 5 lost fumbles on their side of the field .... who knows about vs. Penn St?
    Thanks for the picks ITWT....I love Colorado giving the points this week...check that game out

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ITWT


    Indiana (+2.5) at home over Illinois

    Indiana has an awesome Sophmore QB:

    http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playe...playerId=174294

    The kid has thrown for 9 TDs and only 3 INTs while also rushing for 3 more TDs and 317 yards on the ground!

    That means he has accounted for 12 TDs in 3 games! That is $$$$$.

    They also have a dominant 6'7'' WR (James Hardy). This season he has 10 catches, which have gone for an average of 24.5 yards, and five TDs.

    Lastly, Indiana has a deadly pass rush! They are tied for first nationally with 17 sacks in three games and those sacks have totaled a loss of 122 yards.

    Now Illinois has a mobile QB of their own (Juice Williams) but he is nowhere near the aerial threat that Lewis is as he has only thrown 1 TD and 1 INT so far this season while averaging below 9 yards per completion.

    This game should be close but Indiana has the much better QB, the much better pass rush, and they are playing at home.

    Yeah boys...jump on the bandwagon now...before its too late!

  4. #4
    look for Louisville to cover the 37 they are giving those sad little Syracuse Orange

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ITWT
    Indiana (+2.5) at home over Illinois

    Indiana has an awesome Sophmore QB:

    http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/playe...playerId=174294

    The kid has thrown for 9 TDs and only 3 INTs while also rushing for 3 more TDs and 317 yards on the ground!

    That means he has accounted for 12 TDs in 3 games! That is $$$$$.

    They also have a dominant 6'7'' WR (James Hardy). This season he has 10 catches, which have gone for an average of 24.5 yards, and five TDs.

    Lastly, Indiana has a deadly pass rush! They are tied for first nationally with 17 sacks in three games and those sacks have totaled a loss of 122 yards.

    Now Illinois has a mobile QB of their own (Juice Williams) but he is nowhere near the aerial threat that Lewis is as he has only thrown 1 TD and 1 INT so far this season while averaging below 9 yards per completion.

    This game should be close but Indiana has the much better QB, the much better pass rush, and they are playing at home.
    This aint happenin, no way. Hardy might be legit, but Indiana hasn't played a real team yet, and Illinois is about to run the ball straight up their ass with their 3 headed monster in the backfield (4-headed if you count Juice). We'll see how deadly their pass rush is when Mendenhall has rushed for 150+ years. Our defense is better, and playing in Bloomington isn't that much of a home field advantage. I predict J Leman will decapitate someone, and the Illini will survive with the victory 24-20.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by person
    look for Louisville to cover the 37 they are giving those sad little Syracuse Orange
    good call guy

  7. #7
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    I lost Texas Tech and Indiana.

    I won BYU.

    New Mexico looks like another sure victory at this point (knocks on wood).

    The Kansas-FIU game is still up in the air but looking iffy.

    Looks like I'll go 2-3 on the day as a worst and 3-2 on the day at best.

    However, that was before I put in Utah for the 10pm game.

    Utah is a superior team on both sides of the ball. While nothing would "surprise me," I would be surprised if they can't cover 1 TD vs. UNLV.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by person
    look for Louisville to cover the 37 they are giving those sad little Syracuse Orange

    They didn't quite cover against the winless Orange at home but thanks for the great quote for my sig.

    Louisville plays no defense at all.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by ITWT
    I lost Texas Tech and Indiana.

    I won BYU.

    New Mexico looks like another sure victory at this point (knocks on wood).

    The Kansas-FIU game is still up in the air but looking iffy.

    Looks like I'll go 2-3 on the day as a worst and 3-2 on the day at best.

    However, that was before I put in Utah for the 10pm game.

    Utah is a superior team on both sides of the ball. While nothing would "surprise me," I would be surprised if they can't cover 1 TD vs. UNLV.
    Don't blame me. I only went in with you on 1 game. Hit Michigan though, of course I tried to get cute and took Penn State on the half time line as a double or nothing prop (it was pick'em and Michigan didn't look able to move the ball). So I broke even. Can't even pick my nose these days..

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by CTM
    Don't blame me. I only went in with you on 1 game. Hit Michigan though, of course I tried to get cute and took Penn State on the half time line as a double or nothing prop (it was pick'em and Michigan didn't look able to move the ball). So I broke even. Can't even pick my nose these days..
    I got Pwned!

    The Utah pick I threw in late was a tip from a normally very dependable source.

    WOW!

    I'm still up on the year but its days like this that erase WEEKS worth of work!

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ITWT
    I got Pwned!

    The Utah pick I threw in late was a tip from a normally very dependable source.

    WOW!

    I'm still up on the year but its days like this that erase WEEKS worth of work!
    Yea tough week. That happened to me last week and the beginning of this one. Now my heads all screwed up and I don't know what I'm picking today. Usually I have a good feel for what I'm going to do by midweek, but this week even the games i do like I don't have confidence in..

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by ITWT
    I got Pwned!

    The Utah pick I threw in late was a tip from a normally very dependable source.

    WOW!

    I'm still up on the year but its days like this that erase WEEKS worth of work!
    Never bet against the Illini. Conversely, never bet on the Illini. They are too unpredictable.

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