Okay, we now have less than 30 days (23 to be exact) until the opening Salva of Election 2008.
So lets see those political prognostications in action, put your opinions and political smarts where your mouth is, and make your official 1st/2nd/3rd place finish predictions for Iowa. 1/3/08 will be here sooner than we think.
Edit: For the record, [U]THIS IS A [B]PREDICTION[/B] THREAD[/U], not a "preference" thread.
[QUOTE=Warfish;2260033]Okay, we now have less than 30 days (23 to be exact) until the opening Salva of Election 2008.
So lets see those political prognostications in action, put your opinions and political smarts where your mouth is, and make your official 1st/2nd/3rd place finish predictions for Iowa. 1/3/08 will be here sooner than we think.[/QUOTE]
I'll give it a shot.
Keep in mind this is a prediction and not (necessarily) my order of preference...
2) McCain (I think, actually, his revival may be the big news story here)
[QUOTE=JetsCrazey;2260096]I think Ron Paul has a legit shot of finishing in the top 3 in Iowa, thanks to his dedicated supporters who will be willing to skip the Orange Bowl and spend an entire evening voting for him.[/QUOTE]
OK, so give us your 1/2/3 for each party then. Again, this is a [B][U]PREDICTION[/U][/B] thread, not a "how much some JI posters love Ron Paul" thread.
I saw a poll on Iowa, so I could just post what they found, but obviously there will be movement between now and then. That being the case, on the GOP side the real question is whether Huckabee will come back down now after going up. Probably somewhat, but there would have to be some real crap coming out on him for him to lose it at this point. So for the GOP I have
2. Romney in a close second
3. Rudy a distant third.
Btw I can't see McCain winning Iowa since he really doesn't have much organization there. He is stronger by far in NH.
On the Dem side, I really believe it is a toss up at this point among Edwards, Hillary and Obama. Edwards has the stronger organization out there, but the MSM continues to focus on the celebrity element of Hillary v. Obama. Will the Iowa voters get swayed by that? I really don't know.
1) Obama (in a squeaker over the princess of darkness)
2) Hillary (I think she could win ... turnout will be an issue for the Obamites, will they turn out and participate in a caucus? ... if hiLIARy loses here, she will win in NH and the media will be trumpeting here as the comeback gal/kid)
3) Edwards (If he doesn't come in second here, it is over from him) ... needs to come in 2nd to claim some type of victory
Republicans (two person race in Iowa)
1) Huckabee (as he will get the bulk of the Brownback supporters ... i.e. see the Iowa Straw Poll in 2007)
2) Romney (money and organization get him 2nd ... no better)
... big dropoff to 3rd (due to some candidates not having much organization there ... i.e. Rudy, McCain, Thompson, etc.)
3) I will guess Thompson will squeak in for 3rd ... Tancredo could slip in here (has some organization but tough from them to get them to turn out ... because people may want to influence the Huckabee vs. Romney competition) ... Rudy or McCain may slip into 3rd as well (but lacking the organization there). Paul will be the rear ... I mean bring up the rear. He will have the vocal 5%. Actually nut job Paul will finish ahead of Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes ... and claim victory.